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To: Fr: Date: Re:

Interested Parties Pete Brodnitz August 13, 2013 Recent Polling Results

This memo summarizes the findings of two polls we have recently conducted. In mid July, we conducted a poll of likely Democratic primary voters and in early August we conducted a poll of likely 2014 general election voters. The polls indicate that Allyson Schwartz is leading in both the Democratic primary and the general election against incumbent Governor Corbett. Even more importantly, she is well positioned to maintain her advantage in both of these contests.

Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Results

Schwartz Leads All Candidates In Race For Governor By Double Digits Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz is leading her opponents in the Democratic primary for governor by a double digit margin (34% vote for Schwartz, 15% McGinty, 11% Wolf, 10% McCord and 30% are undecided). Schwartz receives more than 60% of the vote in the Philadelphia media market, which accounted for nearly 40% of the vote in the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor.

If the May 2014 Democratic primary election for Governor were held today and the candidates were only, for whom would you vote? [IF DONT KNOW] Which candidate do you lean toward?
InitB2, LeanB2 Ranked by All All Phil Region PGH Oth

Allyson Schwartz of Montgomery County* 34 Kathleen McGinty of Chester County 15 Tom Wolf of York County 11 Rob McCord of Montgomery County 10 Dont Know 30 Note: regional affiliation appears on the ballot in the Schwartz Is The Best Known Candidate In The Race

61 15 15 9 14 23 6 11 19 6 12 14 17 48 30 Democratic primary.

Almost half (45%) of Democratic primary voters know enough about Schwartz to form an opinion of her, while only about a quarter of primary voters are able to identify her opponents (24% know Wolf, 27% McCord, 26% McGinty). Schwartz advantage in statewide name recognition over McCord is particularly notable since he is currently holding statewide office. Allyson Schwartz 45 Tom Wolf 24 Rob McCord 27 Kathleen McGinty 26

Name ID

Schwartz for Governor August 2013

Schwartzs Lead Increases After Voters Hear Positive Profiles Of All the Candidates After respondents heard one positive profile of four of the candidates, Schwartzs lead increases to 29% over the 2nd place candidate and she is almost at 50% support (46% Schwartz, 17% Wolf, 14% McCord, 11% McGinty, and 12% undecided).

Given this, if the May 2014 Democratic primary election for Governor were held today and the candidates were only..., for whom would you vote?
All

Allyson Schwartz of Montgomery County Tom Wolf of York County Rob McCord of Montgomery County Kathleen McGinty of Chester County Dont Know

46 17 14 11 12

Most Voters Say Schwartz Is The Candidate Who Has The Ability To Defeat Corbett After reading voters a positive profile of each of the candidates, a plurality (36%) say the attribute has the ability to defeat Governor Corbett applies most to Schwartz; followed by McCord (21%), Wolf (19%), and McGinty (9%).

Has the ability to defeat Governor Corbett. Which candidate does this phrase apply most to?
All

Schwartz McCord Wolf McGinty Dont Know

36 21 19 9 17

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 800 interviews using live callers across Pennsylvania with likely 2014 Democratic primary election voters July 16-18, 2013. The margin of error for overall results is 3.46%.

Schwartz for Governor August 2013

Pennsylvania General Election Results

Schwartz Leads Governor Corbett By 8%; Almost Receives a Majority of Support The recent results of our survey of 2014 general election voters in Pennsylvania show Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz in a strong position, leading Corbett by 8%. Schwartz receives almost a majority of vote (49%), while Corbett receives 41%, and 10% are undecided.

If the November 2014 election for Governor were held today, and the candidates werefor whom would you vote? [IF DONT KNOW] Which candidate do you lean towards?
All

Difference
Democrat Allyson Schwartz Republican Tom Corbett Dont know

+8
49 41 10

A Majority of Voters Express Dissatisfaction with Corbett and the Direction of PA A majority of voters (51%) say Pennsylvania is off on the wrong track and more than half of voters disapprove of the job Governor Corbett is doing (46% approve, 51% disapprove). Job Approval* PA Direction*

Difference
Approve Disapprove Dont know

-4
46 50 3

Difference
Right direction Wrong track Dont know

-19
32 51 16

*Note: Due to rounding, these numbers dont add to 100%.

Schwartz Clears the 50% Threshold After Voters Hear a Positive Biographical Statement About Both Candidates After respondents heard a positive profile of both candidates, Schwartzs lead increases to 16% over Corbett and she receives the support of a majority of voters; 53% vote for Schwartz, 37% for Corbett, 10% are undecided.

Given this, if the November 2014 election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?
All

Difference
Democrat Allyson Schwartz Republican Tom Corbett Dont know

+16
53 37 10

Schwartz for Governor August 2013

A Majority Agree With Schwartz On The Issue Of Abortion We tested a message attacking Schwartz characterizing her record on abortion as well as a statement that supporters of Schwartz might offer in response. Overall, a majority of voters (51%) say they agree with supporters of Schwartz, while 33% say they agree with supporters of Corbett. Schwartz even wins this exchange among white Catholic voters (56% say they agree with supporters of Schwartz, while 29% say the agree with supporters of Corbett) and among voters living in the Pittsburgh media market (62% say they agree with supporters of Schwartz, while 24% say they agree with supporters of Corbett).

1) Supporters of Tom Corbett say prior to running for Congress, Schwartz ran an abortion clinic in Philadelphia. In Congress and the State Senate, she has pushed a pro-abortion agenda, including opposing parental notification, supporting partial birth abortions, and voting against the Religious Freedom Act. 2) Supporters of Allyson Schwartz say she helped found the non-profit Elizabeth Blackwell Health Center to provide access to quality, affordable health care. While the center did provide legal abortion services, Sc hwartzs goal was to reduce the number of abortions by helping women get access to better health care and contraception to avoid unwanted pregnancies. On a scale of 1 to 5 where (ROTATE) 1 means you strongly agree with supporters of Tom Corbett and 5 means you strongly agree with supporters of Allyson Schwartz (END ROTATE) on this issue, what number would you pick?
All

Difference
Total Agree with Schwartz Net 5-4 5 Strongly 4 Total Agree with Corbett Net 1-2 2 1 Strongly Dont Know 3

+18
51 33 17 33 10 23 16

+33
58 40 18 25 10 15 17

Phil

Region PGH

+38
62 46 16 24 5 20 14

Other

White Catholics

-10
36 19 17 46 13 33 18

+27
56 43 12 29 6 23 15

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 600 interviews using live callers across Pennsylvania with likely 2014 general election voters August 6-8, 2013. The margin of error for overall results is 4.00%. BSGs Pennsylvania experience includes work on behalf of Kathleen Kane, the first woman elected Attorney General in Pennsylvanias history and work for the DSCC on behalf of Senator Robert Caseys re -election efforts. Other BSG clients include Senator Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jeff Merkley (OR), Senator Mazie Hirono (HI), Congressman Tim Walz (MN) Congressman Adam Smith (WA), and President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia. Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named Pollster of the Year by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work for Governor Kaine (D-VA), Senator Jim Webb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and holds a Masters Degree from the University of Pennsylvanias Annenberg School of Communication.

Schwartz for Governor August 2013