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THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE

Randall B. DunhamNovember 5, 1996PurposeThe purpose of the Delphi technique is to elicit information and judgments fromparticipants to facilitate problem-solving, planning, and decision-making. It does sowithout physically assembling the contributors. Instead, information is exchangedvia mail, FAX, or email. This technique is designed to take advantage of participants’creativity as well as the facilitating effects of group involvement and interaction. It isstructured to capitalize on the merits of group problem-solving and minimize theliabilities of group problem-solving.RequirementsThe Delphi technique requires a Coordinator to organize requests for information,information received, and to be responsible for communication with the participants.The Delphi technique requires an efficient communication channel to link theCoordinator with each of the participants. It is common to use the U.S. mail for thispurpose, but FAXes and email can decrease the time required for completing a Delphitechnique. Elapsed time from beginning to end of the process averages 44 days usingthe U.S. mail and as little as five days using email. Nevertheless, the Coordinator’s job can take substantial time. Recent experience suggests that coordination of theDelphi technique using email with 20 participants and the processing of threequestionnaires could utilize 30-40 hours of the Coordinator’s time.Process1.

Identify the issue and solicit ideas

. For example:

What action could be taken to provide faster response to patientinquiries between visits?

Prepare and send the first questionnaire, which asks each participant to engage inindividual brainstorming so as to generate as many ideas as possible for dealingwith the issue.2.

Response to first questionnaire

. Each participant lists his/her ideas(Questionnaire #1) in a brief, concise manner and returns the list anonymously tothe Coordinator. These ideas need not be fully developed. In fact, it is preferableto have each idea expressed in one brief sentence or phrase. No attempt should bemade to evaluate or justify these ideas at this point in time.3.

Create and send Questionnaire #2

. The Coordinator prepares and sends asecond questionnaire to participants that contains all of the ideas sent in responseto the first questionnaire and provides space for participants to refine each idea, tocomment on each idea’s strengths and weaknesses for addressing the issue, and toidentify new ideas.

Response to second questionnaire

. Participants anonymously record theirresponses to Questionnaire #2 and return them to the Coordinator.5.

Create and send Questionnaire #3

. The Coordinator creates and sends a thirdquestionnaire that summarizes the input from the previous step and asks foradditional clarifications, strengths, weaknesses, and new ideas.6.

Continuation of the process

. If desired, the Coordinator performs iterations of the preceding process until it becomes clear that no new ideas are emerging andthat all strengths, weakness, and opinions have been identified.7.

Resolution.

Resolution may occur in one of two ways.•If dominant, highly evaluated ideas emerge via consensus, the exercise isdeclared finished. The end product is a list of ideas with their concomitantstrengths and weaknesses.•The Coordinator conducts a formal assessment of the group’s opinions of themerits of the ideas. There are a number of ways to conduct a formalevaluation. In one method, the Coordinator prepares a questionnaire that listsall the ideas and asks participants to rate each one on a scale. For example, a7-point scale could be used that ranges from 0 (no potential for dealing with theissue) through 7 (very high potential for dealing with the issue). If thisapproach is used, participants send the rating forms to the Coordinator, whocompiles the results and rank-orders the ideas based on the evaluations.A second approach for evaluating the ideas is that which is used in theNominal Group Technique for “voting.” With this approach, the Coordinatorasks each member to identify the top five ideas and assign five points to themost promising idea, 4 points to the next most promising, and 3, 2, and 1 pointsto the third, fourth, and fifth-best ideas. These votes are returned to theCoordinator, who tallies the results and prepares a report. The report notesthe rank order of the ideas based on the total number of points received andindicates the number of people who voted for each idea.

QUESTIONNAIRE #1

The purpose of this questionnaire is to elicit your ideas regarding the following issue:

What action could be taken to provide faster response to patientinquiries between visits?

Please engage in individual brainstorming so as to generate as many ideas as possiblefor dealing with this issue. Please list each idea in a brief, concise manner and emailyour response to me. Your ideas need not be fully developed. In fact, it is preferableto have each idea expressed in one brief sentence or phrase. No attempt should bemade to evaluate or justify these ideas at this point in time. Your ideas will beanonymously included in the next questionnaire.Idea #1:Idea #2:Idea #3:Idea #4:Idea #5:Idea #6:Idea #7:Idea #8:Idea #9:Idea #10: