TERM PAPER TOPIC: FIRST ORDER PROBABILISTIC LOGIC Submitted by BALRAM JHA,,,, Reg. no.-11003822,,,,,,Roll number-A09,,,, Submitted to !

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Abstract

'ir(t-order )rob*bili(ti+ logi+ i( * )o,er-ul .no,ledge re)re(ent*tion l*ngu*ge. /n-ortun*tely, dedu+ti0e re*(oning b*(ed on t1e (t*nd*rd (em*nti+( -or t1i( logi+ doe( not (u))ort +ert*in de(ir*ble )*ttern( o- re*(oning, (u+1 *( indi--eren+e to irrele0*nt in-orm*tion or (ub(titution o- +on(t*nt( into uni0er(*l rule(. 2e (1o, t1*t bot1 t1e(e )*ttern( rely on * -ir(t-order 0er(ion o- )rob*bili(ti+ inde)enden+e, *nd )ro0ide (em*nti+ +ondition( to +*)ture t1em. 31e re(ulting in(ig1t en*ble( u( to under(t*nd t1e e--e+t o- +onditioning on inde)enden+e, *nd *llo,( u( to de(+ribe * )ro+edure -or determining ,1en inde)enden+ie( *re )re(er0ed under +onditioning. 2e *))ly t1i( )ro+edure in t1e +onte4t o- * (ound *nd )o,er-ul in-eren+e *lgorit1m -or re*(oning -rom (t*ti(ti+*l .no,ledge b*(e(.

1 Introduction:

'ir(t-order logi+ i( ,idely re+ogni5ed *( being * -und*ment*l building blo+. in .no,ledge re)re(ent*tion. A( i( ,ell .no,n, 1o,e0er, -ir(t-order logi+ doe( not 1*0e t1e ne+e((*ry e4)re((i0e )o,er to de*l ,it1 m*ny (itu*tion( o- intere(t 6B*++1u( 19907. 'or e4*m)le, ,1ile -ir(t-order logi+ *llo,( u( to e4)re(( (t*tement( li.e 8*ll bird( -ly8, it doe( not *llo, u( to *((ert in * n*tur*l ,*y t1*t mo(t bird( -ly, or t1*t *ny gi0en bird i( li.ely but not +ert*in to -ly. 31e (t*nd*rd ,*y to de*l ,it1 (u+1 un+ert*inty i( 0i* * )rob*bility di(tribution o0er t1e )o((ibilitie( t1*t ,e en0i(ion. !- ,e *re intere(ted in doing )rob*bili(ti+ -ir(t-order re*(oning, t1en ,e +*n t*.e t1e (et o- )o((ibilitie(, or )o((ible ,orld(, to be -ir(t-order model(. H*0ing * logi+ ,it1 * (em*nti+( immedi*tely gi0e( u( * notion o- dedu+ti0e ent*ilment. 2e dedu+e * -ormul* +o -rom * 6)rob*bili(ti+7 .no,ledge b*(e 9B i- *ll t1e 6)rob*bili(ti+7 model( t1*t (*ti(-y 9B *l(o (*ti(-y +o

./n-ortun*tely, *( in m*ny logi+(, dedu+ti0e ent*ilment i( o-ten in*de:u*te *( *n in-eren+e )ro+edure. M*ny de(ir*ble )*ttern( o- re*

(oning, )*rti+ul*rly t1o(e in0ol0ing irrele0*n+e, *re (im)ly *)1ne 9oller ,*( *t /.;. Ber.eley *nd *t t1e !BM Alm*den Re(e*r+1 ;enter. 'ello,(1i) not (ound in *ll )rob*bili(ti+ model(. Sin+e it +on(ider( *ll model(, ent*ilment +*nnot 0*lid*te t1e(e )*ttern(. 3o obt*in t1e(e )*ttern( o- re*(oning, ,e mu(t re(tri+t *ttention to t1o(e model( t1*t (u))ort t1em. 3o *++om)li(1 t1i(, ,e mu(t -ir(t under(t*nd t1e underlying (em*nti+( o- t1e(e re*(oning )*ttern(< i.e., ,1en do ,e get t1em *nd ,1y= 31i( t1eme *l(o *))e*r( in t1e ,or. on belie- net,or.( 6>e*rl 19887, ,1i+1 utili5e inde)enden+e to obt*in * +on+i(e *nd intuiti0e re)re(ent*tion o- * )rob*bility di(tribution. 31e

)o,er *nd +on0enien+e o- B*ye(i*n net,or.( 1*( re(ulted in * re(urgen+e o- ,or. on u(ing )rob*bility *( * .no,ledge re)re(ent*tion )*r*digm *nd 1*( led to * l*rge number o*))li+*tion(. Ho,e0er, u) to no, it 1*( mo(tly been *))lied in *n *ttribute-b*(ed 6e((enti*lly )ro)o(ition*l7 +onte4t, ,it1 t1e re(ulting limit*tion( on e4)re((i0e )o,er. 'or e4*m)le, u(ing )rob*bili(ti+ -ir(t-order logi+, ,e +*n e*(ily e4)re(( t1e e--e+t o- )eni+illin on * b*+teri*l in-e+tion. /(ing B*ye(i*n net,or.(, it i( di--i+ult to e4)re(( bin*ry )redi+*te( li.e !n-e+ted *nd 3re*ted, *nd uni0er(*l (t*tement( t1*t 1old -or *ll )*tient( *nd *ll in-e+tion(. ?ote t1*t t1e uni0er(*l :u*nti-ier *llo,( t1e rule to be *))lied to *ny b*+teri*l in-e+tion, e0en one t1*t t1e

de(igner did not origin*lly in+lude in t1e .no,ledge b*(e. %ne )er1*)( (ur)ri(ing out+ome o- our *n*ly(i( o- inde)enden+e i( it( +onne+tion to * (eemingly unrel*ted )ro)erty@ (ub(titution. !n +l*((i+ -ir(t-order logi+, t1e -ollo,ing *4iom i( 0*lid@ " 4+o647 +o6+7, ,1ere + i( * +on(t*nt. !t i( ,ell .no,n t1*t in mod*l logi+(, t1i( (ub(titution )ro)erty doe( not 1old in gener*l 6A*r(on 19BB7. A((ume ,e *re told, *( *bo0e, t1*t " 4 6>r6'ly647 Bird647 C 0.97. ;*n ,e dedu+e t1*t >r6'ly63,eety7 Bird63,eety77 C 0.9= 2e +*n (ub(titute 3,eety -or 4 i3,eety i( * rigid de(ign*tor i.e., i- it denote( t1e (*me t1ing in *ll )o((ible ,orld(. But m*.ing 3,eety * rigid de(ign*tor +*n be )roblem*ti+, be+*u(e t1en t1e -ormul* " 4 6>r6'ly647 Bird6477 C 0.97 i( in+on(i(tent ,it1 t1e ob(er0*tion Bird63,eety7 A D'ly63,eety7

Belie- net,or.( or B*ye(i*n net,or.( E>e*rl, 1988F *re * )o)ul*r re)re(ent*tion -or inde)enden+ie( *mong(t r*ndom 0*ri*ble(. 31ey *re, 1o,e0er 5erot1-order re)re(ent*tion(< to re*(on *bout multi)le indi0idu*l(, ,e 1*0e to m*.e e*+1 )ro)erty o- e*+1 indi0idu*l into * (e)*r*te node. 31ere 1*0e been )ro)o(*l( to *llo, -or ,*y( to li-t belie- net,or.( to * -ir(t order re)re(ent*tion. 31e -ir(t tr*dition EBree(e, 1992< Hor(+1 *nd >oole, 1990< 2ellm*n, Bree(e *nd Aoldm*n, 1992F e((enti*lly *llo,ed -or )*r*meteri5ed belie- net,or.(, ,1i+1 +ould be grounded -or e*+1 indi0idu*l. 31e (e+ond tr*dition E>oole, 1993< 9oller *nd >-e--er, 1998< >-e--er, 9oller, Mil+1, *nd 3*.u(*g*,*, 1999F *llo,ed -or ri+1er -ir(t order )rob*bili(ti+ re)re(ent*tion( t1*t 1*0e belie- net-,or.( *( ()e+i*l +*(e(. !n *ll o- t1e(e t1e only indi0idu*l(

*((umed to e4i(t *re t1o(e t1*t ,e .no, *bout. 31ere *re m*ny +*(e( ,1ere ,e ,*nt to re*(on *bout * (et o- indi0idu*l( *( * grou). 2eGd li.e *0oid e4)li+it re*(oning *bout e*+1 indi0idu*l (e)*r*tely. 31ere ,*( * gre*t *d0*n+e in t1eorem )ro0ing in t1e 19H0( ,it1 t1e in0ention o- ore(olution *nd uni-i+*tion ERobin(on, 19HIF. 31e big *d0*n+e ,*( t1*t doing re(olution on +l*u(e( t1*t +ont*in -ree 0*ri*ble( im)lement( * )otenti*lly unbounded number o- re(olution( on t1e grounded re)re(ent*tion. 31e go*l o- t1e +urrent ,or. i( to *llo, -or (imil*r (*0ing( in )rob*bili(ti+ re*(oning. >rob*bili(ti+ re*(oning i( more +1*llenging t1*n logi+*l re*(oning -or * number o- re*(on(@ J 2e 1*0e to u(e *ll o- our in-orm*tion ,1en m*.ing * )rob*bili(ti+ in-eren+e< ne, in-orm*tion +*n +1*nge old +on+lu(ion(. J 2e donGt ,*nt to double +ount e0iden+e. !,e 1*0e (ome )rob*bili(ti+ in-orm*tion *bout *ll )eo)le *nd ,e u(e it -or one )*rti+ul*r indi0idu*l, (*y 'red, t1en ,e +*nGt reu(e t1*t in-orm*tion -or 'red. J 31ere *re +*(e( ,1ere t1e (i5e o- t1e dom*in *--e+t( t1e )rob*bility. !n t1e e4*m)le de0elo)ed belo,, determining t1e )rob*bility t1*t * )er(on i( guilty o- * )*rti+ul*r +rime de)end( on t1e )o)ul*tion< t1e )o)ul*tion (i5e *--e+t( t1e number o- ot1er )eo)le ,1o +ould be guilty. 31e -ollo,ing e4*m)le (1o,( ,1y ,e m*y need to re*(on *bout t1e indi0idu*l( ,e donGt .no, *bout *( ,ell *( t1e indi0idu*l( ,e do .no, *bout *nd (1o,( ,1y ,e need to +on(ider )o)ul*tion (i5e. $4*m)le 1 A )er(on in * to,n ,*( (een +ommitting * +rime. 31i( )er(on 1*d t1e (*me 6unu(u*l7 1*ir +olour *nd +*r +olour *( Joe 6bot1 )ur)le7 *nd t1e )er(on ,*( 0ery t*ll *nd ,e .no, Joe 1*( big -eet 6*nd being t*ll i( +orrel*ted ,it1 1*0ing big -eet7. 21*t i( t1e )rob*bility t1*t Joe i( guilty= 2e need to model t1e )rob*bilitie( o- t1e ob(er0*tion( *nd t1eir de)enden+e, ,1i+1 ,ould le*d u( to +on(ider belie- net,or.( *( * re)re(ent*tion. 31e )rob*bility Joe i( guilty *l(o de)end( on t1e )o)ul*tion. !- t1e )o)ul*tion o- t1e to,n i( 0ery (m*ll t1en 1e i( )rob*bly guilty 6*( it i( unli.ely

t1ere i( *nyone el(e -itting t1i( de(+ri)tion7. !t1e to,n ,*( * +ity +ont*ining * l*rge number o- )eo)le t1en 1e i( )rob*bly inno+ent 6*( ,e
,ould e4)e+t m*ny ot1er )eo)le to *l(o -it t1i( de(+ri)tion7. 31i( e4*m)le )oint( to * number o- -e*ture( t1*t 1*0e been ignored in -ir(t-order )rob*bili(ti+ model(. ?ot only do ,e need to t*.e )o)ul*tion (i5e( into *++ount but ,e need to be *ble to re*(on *bout t1e indi0idu*l( ,e .no, *bout *( ,ell *( t1e indi0idu*l( ,1o ,e .no, e4i(t, but ,e donGt .no, *nyt1ing )*rti+ul*r *bout. 2e donGt 1*0e to ground out our t1eory *nd re*(on *bout million( o)eo)le in * +ity (e)*r*tely, but ,e *l(o +*nnot ignore t1e rele0*nt in-orm*tion *bout t1e )eo)le ,e .no, (omet1ing *bout.

First-Order Lo ic Mode!:
2e )ro)o(e *ugmenting t1e >*ir,i(e Model to en*ble +l*((i-i+*tion de+i(ion( o0er (et( onoun )1r*(e(.

-ir(t-order logi+ to +1*r*+teri5e t1e noun +ore-eren+e t*(., *nd +*n le*rn ,eig1t( -or in(t*nti*tion( ot1e(e -ormul*e. Ho,e0er,n*i0ely grounding t1e +orre()onding M*r.o0 logi+ net,or. re(ult( in * +ombin*tori*l e4)lo(ion o- 0*ri*ble(. Belo, ,e outline met1od( to (+*le tr*in-ing *nd )redi+tion ,it1 t1i( re)re(ent*tion. A( in t1e >*ir,i(e Model, ,e mu(t de+ide 1o, to (*m)le tr*ining e4*m)le( *nd 1o, to +ombine inde-)endent +l*((i-i+*tion( *t te(ting time. !t i( im)ort*nt to note t1*t by mo0ing to t1e 'ir(t%rder Logi+ Model, t1e number o- )o((ible )redi+tion( 1*( in-+re*(ed e4)onenti*lly. !n t1e >*ir,i(e Model, t1e number o- )o((ible y 0*ri*ble( i( %6K4K27, ,1ere L i( t1e (et o- noun )1r*(e(. !n t1e 'ir(t-%rder Logi+ Model, t1e number o- )o((ible y 0*ri*ble( i( %62K4K7@ 31ere i( * y 0*ri*ble -or e*+1 )o((ible element o- t1e )o,er (et o- 4. %- +our(e, ,e do not enumer*te t1i( (et< r*t1er, ,e in+rement*lly in(t*nti*te y 0*ri*ble( *( needed during )redi+tion. A (im)le met1od to gener*te tr*ining e4*m)le( i( to (*m)le )o(iti0e *nd neg*ti0e +lu(ter e4*m)le( uni-ormly *t r*ndom -rom t1e tr*ining d*t*. >o(iti0e e4*m)le( *re gener*ted by -ir(t (*m)ling * true +lu(ter, t1en (*m)ling * (ub(et ot1*t +lu(ter. ?eg*ti0e e4*m)le( *re gener*ted by (*m)ling t,o )o(iti0e e4*m)le( *nd merging t1em into t1e (*me +lu(ter. At te(ting time, ,e )er-orm (t*nd*rd greedy *gglomer*ti0e +lu(tering, ,1ere t1e (+ore -or e*+1 merger i( )ro)ortion*l to t1e )rob*bility o- t1e
ne,ly -ormed +lu(tering *++ording to t1e model. ;lu(tering termin*te( ,1en t1ere e4i(t( no *ddi-tion*l merge t1*t im)ro0e( t1e )rob*bility o- t1e +lu(tering.

Re"resentation:
?ote t1*t t1i( model gi0e( u( t1e re)re(ent*tion*l )o,er o- re+ently )ro)o(ed M*r.o0 logi+ net,or.( t1*t i(, ,e +*n +on(tru+t *rbitr*ry -ormul*e in 2e *((ume t1*t t1e dom*in i( re)re(ented *( * )*r*metri5ed belie- net,or., ,1ere t1e node( *re )*r*metri5ed ,it1 dom*in-re(tri+ted ty)e( 6or )o)ul*tion(7. Su+1 *n ide* 1*( been e4)lored )re0iou(ly EHor(+1 *nd >oole, 1990< 9er(ting *nd e R*edt, 2000F, *nd i( (imil*r to t1e )l*te( o- Buntine E199MF. 2e Nu(t *((ume t1*t t1e

)rogr*m me*n( t1e grounding@ t1e (ub-(titution o- +on(t*nt( -or e*+1 indi0idu*l in t1e dom*in o* )*r*meter. 31i( )*)er i( e4)li+itly B*ye(i*n. !n term( ot1e -ir(t-order )rob*bility o- H*l)ern E1990F, t1e )rob*bilitie( *re *ll degree( o- belie-, not (t*ti(ti+*l *((ertion( *bout )ro)ortion( o- * )o)ul*tion. 2e *re not :u*nti-ying o0er r*ndom indi0idu*l( 6*( doe( B*++1u( E1990F7, but o0er *ll indi0idu*l( 6i.e., ,it1 (t*n-d*rd uni0er(*l :u*nti-i+*tion7. All o- t1e indi0idu*l( *bout ,1i+1 ,e 1*0e t1e (*me in-orm*tion 1*0e t1e (*me )rob*bil-ity. !t i( t1i( )ro)erty t1*t ,e e4)loit +om)ut*tion*lly. 31i( )*)er i( built on t,o di--erent tr*dition(, n*mely t1*t o- logi+ )rogr*mming *nd t1eorem )ro0ing on one (ide *nd t1*t o- )rob*bili(ti+ re*(oning on t1e ot1er (ide. /n-ortun*tely t1ey u(e t1e (*me term( or not*tion( 6e.g., O0*ri*bleP, Odom*inP, O CP7 -or 0ery di--erent t1ing( 6or *t le*(t t1ey *re u(ed in 0ery di--erent ,*y( in t1i( )*)er7. !n order to *0oid +on-u(ion, ,e u(e neutr*l term(, but u(e t1e tr*dition( o- t1e di--erent +ommunitie( *( *))ro)ri*te. A )o)ul*tion i( * (et o- indi0idu*l(. A )o)ul*tion +orre()ond( to * dom*in in logi+. 31e +*rdin*lity o- t1e )o)ul*tion i( +*lled t1e )o)ul*tion (i5e. 'or e4*m)le, t1e )o)ul*tion m*y be t1e (et o- )eo)le li0ing in "*n+ou0er, *nd t1e )o)ul*tion (i5e i( 2 million )eo)le. 31e )o)ul*tion (i5e +*n be -inite or in-inite. 2e *llo, -or r*ndom 0*ri*ble( to be )*r*metri5ed, ,1ere )*r*meter( (t*rt ,it1 *n u))er +*(e letter *nd +on(t*nt( (t*rt ,it1 * lo,er +*(e letter. >*r*meter( +orre()ond to logi+*l 0*ri-*ble( 6e.g., *( * 0*ri*ble in >rolog7. All ot1e )*r*meter( *re ty)ed ,it1 * )o)ul*tion. A )*r*metri5ed r*ndom 0*ri*ble i( o- t1e -orm ,1ere - i( * -un+tor 6eit1er * -un+tion (ymbol or * )redi+*te (ymbol7 *nd e*+1 i( * )*r*meter or * +on(t*nt. $*+1 -un+tor 1*( * (et o- 0*lue( +*lled t1e r*nge o- t1e -un+tor.
$4*m)le( o- )*r*metri5ed r*ndom 0*ri*ble( *re 1*ir Q+olour 6L 7, li.e( 6L , # 7, li.e( 6Noe, L 7 or to,n +on(er0*ti0ene(( 6t1e l*tter being * -un+tor o- no *rgument(7, ,1ere 1*ir Q+olour , li.e( *nd to,n +on(er0*ti0ene(( *re -un+tor(.

)*r*meter, * )*r*metri5ed r*ndom 0*ri*ble re)re(ent( * r*ndom 0*ri-*ble. 'or e4*m)le, (u))o(e 1*ir +olour 1*( r*nge Rbl*+., blond, red , grey , )ur)le , or*nge , none , multi+olouredS. 31en 1*ir Q+olour 6(*m 7 i( * r*ndom 0*ri*ble ,it1 dom*in Rbl*+., blond, red , grey , )ur)le , or*nge , none , multi+olouredS. 31u( * )*r*metri5ed r*ndom 0*ri*ble re)re(ent( * (et o- r*ndom 0*ri*ble(, one -or e*+1 )*r*meter *((ignment. i--erent )*r*meter *((ignment( -or t1e 0*ri*ble( in * )*r*metri5ed r*n-dom 0*ri*ble re(ult in di--erent r*ndom 0*ri*ble(< -or e4-*m)le, 1*ir Q+olour 6-red 7 i( * di--erent r*ndom 0*ri*ble to 1*ir
Q+olour 6Noe7. A )*r*metri5ed )rimiti0e )ro)o(ition i( *n e4)re((ion ot1e -orm t C 0 , ,1i+1 me*n( t1*t )*r*metri5ed r*ndom 0*ri*ble t 1*( 0*lue 0 .A )*r*metri5ed )ro)o(ition i( built -rom t1e )*r*metri5ed )rimiti0e )ro)o(ition( u(ing t1e norm*l

logi+*l +onne+ti0e(. A )rob*bili(ti+ *((ertion i( o- t1e -orm@

Ai0en *n *((ignment o- * +on(t*nt to e*+1

A )*r*metri5ed belie- net,or. +on(i(t( oJ * AA ,1ere t1e node( *re )*r*metri5ed r*ndom 0*ri*ble(, J *n *((o+i*tion o- * )o)ul*tion to e*+1 )*r*meter, J *n *((ignment o- * r*nge to e*+1 -un+tor, J * (et o- )rob*bility *((ertion( -or e*+1 node gi0en it( )*rent(.

$4*m)le 2 3o -orm*li5e $4*m)le 1, +on(ider t1e )*r*metri5ed belie- net,or. o- 'igure 1. Here ,e 1*0e (1o,n it u(ing t1e )l*te(.
EBuntine, 199MF *( ,ell *( ,it1 )*r*metri5ed r*ndom 0*ri*ble(. 2e *((ume t1*t t1e 1*ir-+olour o- t1e di--erent )eo)le *re not inde)endent< t1ey de)end on 1o, +on(er0*ti0e t1e to,n i(. A((o+i*ted ,it1 t1i( net,or. *re +ondition*l )rob*bili(ti+ *((ertion( (u+1 *(

!- ,e .ne, *( b*+.ground .no,ledge t1*t (*m ,*( *n e4+e)tion *nd 1*( )ur)le 1*ir ,it1 )rob*bility 0 .I, ,e ,ould re)l*+e t1e l*(t )rob*bili(ti+ *((ertion ,it1@

> 61*ir Q+olour 6(*m 7C)ur)le 7 C 0 .I A grounding o- * )*r*metri5ed belie- net,or. i( * belie- net,or. t1*t +on(i(t( o- *ll in(t*n+e( o- t1e
)*r*metri5ed r*n-dom 0*ri*ble( ,1ere e*+1 )*r*meter i( re)l*+ed by *n in-di0idu*l in t1e )o)ul*tion 6or * ground term denoting t1*t indi0idu*l7. !ntuiti0ely, * )*r*metri5ed belie- net,or. re)re(ent( * 1uge belie- net,or. ,1ere t1e )*r*metri5ed r*ndom 0*ri*ble( *re re)e*ted -or e*+1 indi0idu*l in t1e )o)ul*tion *((o+i*ted ,it1 t1e )*r*meter -or ,1i+1 t1e +on(tr*int i( true. 31e *bo0e e4*m)le, i- t1ere ,ere 10,000 )eo)le, ,ould re)re(ent * belie- net,or. ,it1 H0,001 node(.

in t,o )*r*metri+ -*+tor(@

2e +*n no, elimin*te de(+n6L 7 -or L QC Noe *nd noti+e t1*t t1e in(t*n+e( *re inde)endent gi0en +on(er0*ti0ene(( . 31i( re(ult( in t1e )*r*metri+ -*+tor@ 2e +*n no, (um out +on(er0*ti0ene(( *nd +ondition on ,itne(( *nd end u) ,it1 * )*r*metri+ -*+tor@ . !- ,e ,ere to +*rry out t1i( +om)ut*tion le*0-ing t1e )o)ul*tion *( * )*r*meter, t1e )rob*bility o- guilty 6Noe7 +*n be +om)uted *( * -un+tion o- t1e )o)ul*tion. 2e get * re-(ult t1*t loo.( li.e 'igure I. 31e gr*)1 1*( t1i( (1*)e be+*u(e it i( t1e line*r +ombin*tion o- e4)onenti*l -un+tion( 6-or e*+1 0*lue o- to,n Q+on(er0*ti0ene(( ,e 1*0e *n e4)onenti*l di(-tribution7.

E#a$"!e based on %irst order "robabi!istic !o ic: Su))o(e t1*t *( ,ell

*( ob(er0ing t1e 1*ir-+olour, +*r-+olour, *nd (1oe (i5e o- Joe, ,e *l(o ob(er0ed t1*t t1ere e4i(t( * )er(on ,1o i( guilty *nd -it( * +ert*in de(+ri)tion o- 1*ir-+olour, +*r-+olour, 1eig1t. 31i(
i( de)i+ted in 'igure M. Su))o(e ,e ,*nt to +om)ute ,1et1er Joe i( guilty gi0en JoeG( 1*ir-+olour, +*r-+olour *nd (1oe (i5e *nd gi0en t1e ,it-ne(( de(+ri)tion. 2e +*n -ir(t in(t*nti*te *ll o- t1e ob(er0ed r*ndom 0*ri*ble( e4+e)t t1e ,itne(( ob(er0*tion. 31i( ()lit( o-- Noe *( * ()e+i*l +*(e. 2e +*n no, elimin*te *ll o- t1e r*n-dom 0*ri*ble( e4+e)t -or to,n Q+on(er0*ti0ene(( , guilty6Noe7,

31i( re(ult(

*t* *((o+i*tion +*l+ul*tion@ J A((ignment V ()e+i-ie( ,1i+1 ob(er0*tion( belong to ,1i+1 0e1i+le J $6-Kd*t*7 C WV -6V,d*t*7 >6d*t*KV7 >6V7 C WV -6V,d*t*7 >6V7 Xi >6d*t*i7 i.e., li.eli1ood -*+tor( o0er 0e1i+le( gi0en * ()e+i-i+ *((ignment *& Aircra%t Trac+in : J Su))o(e *ir+r*-t donGt Nu(t enter *nd e4it, but *+tu*lly t*.e o-- *nd l*nd *t b*(e( D 2*nt to tr*+. 1o, m*ny *ir+r*-t t1ere *re *t e*+1 b*(e J Air+r*-t 1*0e de(tin*tion( 6)*rti+ul*r b*(e(7 t1*t t1ey gener*lly -ly to,*rd( J A((ume (et o- b*(e( i( .no,n

A""!ications:
1& Citation Matc'in @ J $l*bor*tion o- gener*ti0e model, J >*r*meter e(tim*tion D >rior( -or n*me(, title(, +it*tion -orm*t( le*rned o--line -rom l*beled d*t* D String +orru)tion )*r*meter( le*rned ,it1 Monte ;*rlo $M J !n-eren+e D Auided by O+*no)ie(P o- (imil*r +it*tion( D A++ur*+y (t*bili5e( *-ter T20 minute( (& In%or$ation E#traction: J >6+it*tion te4t K title, *ut1or n*me(7 modeled ,it1 (im)le HMM J 'or e*+1 )*)er@ re+o0er title, *ut1or (urn*me( *nd gi0en n*me( J 'r*+tion ,1o(e *ttribute( *re re+o0ered )er-e+tly in l*(t M;M; (t*te@ D *mong )*)er( ,it1 one +it*tion@ 3H.1U D *mong )*)er( ,it1 multi)le +it*tion(@ H2.HU )& Tra%%ic $onitorin : Ao*l@ e(tim*te +urrent lin. tr*0el time, longterm origin-de(tin*tion +ount(

Future ,or+:
2e )l*n to e4tend re(ult( to more gener*l +l*((e( o- +ombining rule( e0elo) e--i+ient in-eren+e *lgorit1m( ,it1 +ombining rule( e0elo) +om)elling *))li+*tion( ;ombining rule( *nd *ggreg*tor(

REFRE-CES:
1. re(e*r+1 )*)er(, 2. *rti-i+i*l intelligen+e by (*roN .*u(1i.
3. *rti-i+i*l intelligen+e,,t*t* m+gr*, 1ill )ubli+*tion