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| Rodrigo C. Serrano, CFA | SIPA | Columbia University Master of International Affairs 14 Candidate | New York City, NY | 01-305-510-0181 | rcs2164@columbia.edu !
! ! ! Mexico: ! (Bullish): Political jockeying continues between the PRI, PAN, and PRD (the three political parties participating in the Pact for Mexico) to pass the most comprehensive reforms in more than a decade. Successful passage of the ambitious energy reformvii would make the country an extremely attractive place to invest and would lead to increasing oil production, which would simultaneously help the countrys fiscal picture. ! (Bearish): However, worsening economic conditions now and over the coming months may begin to challenge political will on these significant shifts. o Industrial production for September disappointed, falling 1.6% on a YoY basis vs. expectations of a flat reading.viii o Furthermore, Mexican consumer confidence has clearly carved out a top. o Meanwhile, Banxico chops its 2013 economic growth forecast by 50% and cuts its 2014 estimate by roughly 6%. Falling exports (is the U.S. recovery faltering?) and a slumping construction sector are to blame. Inflation is set to pick up due to recently passed tax increases as part of the fiscal reform.ix o To make matters worse the Conference Boards leading indicator signals that economic activity will be subdued for the remainder of 2013.x !
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Source: INEGI
Graphic: El Economista
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! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/07/us-brazil-economy-inflationidUSBRE9A60HN20131107 ii http://en.mercopress.com/2013/11/09/brazilian-president-recovers-from-june-protests-andleads-polls-for-next-year-s-election?utm_source=feedly iii http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/06/autos-brazil-idUSL2N0IR0PV20131106 iv http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/Indeco/Ingl/ie1-54i.xls v http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-14/brazil-economic-activity-unexpectedlycontracts-in-september.html vi http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/brazil-economy-servicesidUSL2N0IP11O20131105 vii http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dd14d0e8-477d-11e3-939800144feabdc0.html#axzz2l3jxHW30 viii http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/11/mexico-economy-idUSL4N0IW3UR20131111 ix http://eleconomista.com.mx/finanzas-publicas/2013/11/06/banxico-recorta-pronostico-pibotra-vez x http://www.nasdaq.com/article/press-release-the-conference-board-leading-economicindexr-lei-for-mexico-declines-20131115-00713 !
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