CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE

LatAm Insights

Receding Tides June 2021

All data, projections and opinions are as of the date of this report and subject to change.

AUTHOR
Vaccination campaigns are picking up across most Latin American (LatAm)
Rodrigo C. Serrano, CFA®
countries, leading some investors to anticipate an eventual receding tide of the Director and Investment Strategist
coronavirus and economic normalization. Financial capital inflows may translate
to an appreciation of the region’s equity and currency markets. However, it may
be prudent for investors to also be mindful of the rising potential for an abating
tide of liquidity as well, led by the macroeconomic dynamics stemming from
the reopening of developed economies, particularly in the U.S. This evolution
is a consideration for our neutral tactical weight of emerging market equities.
For LatAm, the region’s precarious political outlook may attract enhanced
investor scrutiny.

In our view, the globalization of capital has benefitted the developing world. Financial
inflows, including foreign direct investment, have helped accelerate the development
of this sector. A notable aspect has been a prolonged period of low interest rates
and abundant global liquidity, which have underpinned a wide-scale search for yield
by investors since the 2008 global financial crisis. Already high, this tide turned into a
torrent to combat the wave of the coronavirus pandemic and its economic aftermath;
even some LatAm nations launched quantitative easing-like policies, according to
S&P Global. By differing magnitudes, global equity markets have since bounced back,
fundamentally due to the rising prospect of successful vaccination campaigns, allowing
for economic normalization.

Yet, the crisis was a stark reminder of the double-edged nature of these capital flows,
which reversed out of most emerging markets with extraordinary velocity and magnitude
during the earlier days of the pandemic last year. We think that the secondary effects
of this volatile period are still being felt, particularly in LatAm economies. Currency
depreciation has factored in an upward path for inflation in Mexico and Brazil, joining
Argentina, a chronic victim of this phenomenon.

This year too has challenged the region. During the first quarter, the U.S. 10-year
Treasury yield rose from 0.91% to 1.74%. During this period, the spread—or the
difference between this benchmark security and comparable sovereign bonds of the
major LatAm countries—widened, reflecting greater investor cautiousness on the credit
quality of these non-U.S. governments. This performance stood in stark contrast to the
emerging Asian economies (see Exhibit 1). The currencies of most LatAm countries also
underperformed those in Asia.

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This report reviews the fundamental drivers of financial capital inflows ("Capital Flow
Cornerstones") and examines the dynamic outlook for major countries in LatAm, beginning
on page 4 (“Calibrating the Scales”). We review elements poised to attract inflows, while
taking stock of developments to monitor.

Exhibit 1: During the first quarter of 2021, larger shifts in the sovereign spreads for LatAm as a whole compared to Emerging
Asia, which generally saw the spreads contract, reflected heightened credit concerns.

Major LatAm Economies Major Asian Economies

1.8 0.2
1.6 0.1
Percetage point change in spreads

Percetage point change in spreads

0.0
1.4
-0.1
1.2
-0.2
1.0 -0.3
0.8 -0.4

0.6 -0.5
-0.6
0.4
-0.7
0.2 -0.8
0.0 -0.9
Chile Mexico Peru Colombia Brazil China India South Korea Malaysia Indonesia

Source: Chief Investment Office; Bloomberg. Data from December 30, 2020 to March 31, 2021.

Capital Flow Cornerstones

Fundamentally, capital inflows are required to finance a current account (CA) deficit, a
condition where a country’s economy generally imports more goods and services than
it exports. This scenario also implies an economy that is utilizing more output than it is
producing, a situation that, logically thinking, would draw down national savings or require
capital inflows from foreign investors to finance this gap.

BofA Global Research noted earlier this year that the coronavirus crisis generated a
shift in major LatAm economies towards smaller CA deficits and even surpluses in some
cases.1 Driving the change were lockdowns, which drastically suppressed domestic
demand and supported private savings—one of two major segments of national savings.
This effect proved to be larger in magnitude than the capital outflows from these
economies. As the region vaccinates and economies reopen, however, the potential
rebound in consumption and investment may underpin a return to pre-coronavirus CA
tendencies, namely those of larger deficits or reduced surpluses, though to a lesser
degree compared to recent history (see Exhibit 2).

1
LatAm—the curious case of the CA (Current Account) surpluses—BofA Global Research (March 28, 2021). BofA Global
Research is research produced by BofA Securities, Inc. (“BofAS”) and/or one or more of its affiliates. BofAS is a registered
broker-dealer, Member SIPC, and wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation.

2 of 7  June 2021 – LatAm Insights

Exhibit 2: According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), current account
balances are expected to move back towards deficit, likely necessitating
foreign financing.

Simple average of 13 LAC countries2

1.0
Percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
-4.0
07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Source: Chief Investment Office; IMF. Data as of June 2021. 2

An additional factor is government policy. Public spending surged throughout most of

the region to respond to the crisis caused by the coronavirus by generally supporting
household incomes. With a concurrent decline in revenues in general, government fiscal
deficits rose, implying an increase in sovereign debt (see Exhibit 3). Despite the prospect
of an increase in taxation, a continued drawdown of public savings—the second major
component of national savings—would also likely require some foreign financing.

Exhibit 3: The Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean reports a
substantial increase in public debt since the pandemic began

Gross Central Government Public Debt

120
104.5 December 2019 December 2020
100 89.3

80 67.9
Percent of GDP

61.5 61.4 61.3 60.3 59.5 58.7

56.3 55.9
60 47.9
41.9
40 35.2 32.5 32.5
30.1

20

0
ina

Co zil

Ur a

Co ay
bia

Ho or

Sa s

Am r
Do rica

Ni n…
ua

ico

Gu eru

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a
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ua
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i
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La lvad
a

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ur
u

Ch
rag
ca

em
ex
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nt

na
Br

P
ua
ug

rag
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M
ge

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Pa

Ec

at
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Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Data as of December 2020.

A final important factor to consider is a country’s level of foreign exchange reserves,

usually administered by its central bank. According to the IMF, high levels of reserves
and their prudent management can help bolster investor confidence in the ability of an
economy to meet its external foreign currency obligations. Here the landscape for LatAm
is more positive. Led by Peru and Brazil, four of seven major LatAm economies ranked
in the top half of a 39-country sample of emerging markets, tracked by BofA Global
Research, measuring the size of their reserves relative to external debt maturing within
one year, one safeguard measure.3
2
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Captured are the current account balances of: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile,
Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay.
3
Also tracking in the top half were Mexico and Colombia. In the bottom half were Chile and Argentina. Latest data is
utilized in the report published on December 2020.

3 of 7  June 2021 – LatAm Insights

Calibrating the Scales

In our opinion, a notable weight that attracts capital flows is an improving economic
outlook. Not only does it raise the prospect for a greater return on capital for investors, it
also improves the state of a country’s public finances. It reduces the need for aggressive
fiscal stimulus, while boosting tax collection. Growth of a country’s GDP also improves its
debt-to-GDP ratio, an important indicator of fiscal health.

Despite an intense wave of the coronavirus, Brazil’s economy has been resilient.
This performance augurs well for the rest of the year, in our view. As in other LatAm
countries, Brazil’s vaccination campaign is picking up, raising expectations of an ebbing
virulent tide.4 First-quarter GDP growth more than doubled the consensus analyst
estimate, reaching 1.2% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Policymakers are also
working to entice investors. The central bank has hiked rates by 2.25% since mid-
March. President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration is hastening an approval to revamp
the country’s cumbersome tax regime and help improve the business environment.
Privatization of state-owned companies has progressed.

A top-five global miner of aluminum, iron ore, and tin, according to the World Bank,
Brazil has enjoyed windfall earnings from the export of these raw materials, which
have appreciated considerably, due to a global economic rebound, among other factors.
Soybean has risen in value. Brazil is the world’s top producer, while Argentina ranks third.
Like Brazil, Argentina is also a top-five producer of maize. Earnings from the export
of these commodities have bolstered the country’s foreign exchange reserves, among
other benefits.5

Shifting to Mexico, a recent general election resulted in the loss of the qualified majority
in the lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, for the coalition of political parties allied
to President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The outcome likely raises the legislative
bar for his administration to pass constitutional amendments, particularly in regards to
the energy sector, curbing uncertainty. Meanwhile, similar to Brazil, Argentina and other
countries in the region, the Bloomberg consensus estimate of growth for Mexico’s real
GDP this year has increased. Due to its extensive trade links, Mexico has benefitted
from the ongoing reopening of the U.S. economy, which has occurred alongside the
deployment of a potent combination of monetary stimulus and spending measures
approved by the U.S. government.

Unprecedented in size and scope, this combination of stimulus, along with supply-chain
disruptions, has put upward pressure on inflation and raised investor expectations for
tapering, or a slowing of bond purchases, by the Fed as the next step in its quantitative
easing program. Additional large-scale fiscal aid from the Biden administration could
exacerbate these trends, if approved. Anticipation of this progression may have played
a role in the early-year selloff in U.S. government bonds, which also hit most of LatAm’s
sovereign fixed-income and U.S. dollar-denominated equity markets.6

4
Our World in Data: Mathieu, E., Ritchie, H., Ortiz-Ospina, E. et al. A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations. Nat Hum
Behav (2021)
5
High grain prices give Argentine economy some breathing room—The Rio Times (May 21, 2021)
6
The performance of the region’s U.S. dollar-denominated equity markets is captured by the MSCI country indices.

4 of 7  June 2021 – LatAm Insights

The prospect of a receding tide of liquidity may weigh on LatAm economies experiencing
elevated political uncertainty, which we believe is unconducive to capital inflows. While
it is the world’s top copper producer and well advanced in its vaccination drive, Chilean
equities have lagged the broad MSCI Emerging Markets Index, year-to-date. Elections to
assemble a committee to rewrite the country’s constitution granted notable influence
to independent and left-leaning spheres of the political spectrum. The result has raised
investor concern that November’s presidential election may yield a similar result, paving
the way for fundamental change to the country’s free-market economic model.7 This
scenario also may be developing in Peru—the world’s number-two copper producer—
where Pedro Castillo, who leads in the vote count to become the country's next
president, has vowed substantial policies to enhance the state’s role in the economy.8

Meanwhile, protests have gripped Colombia, challenging economic growth and spoiling
the tax reform presented by President Ivan Duque’s administration. This development
precipitated a credit downgrade by S&P to high yield, marking the first time in a decade
that Colombia was not rated investment grade by all three major rating agencies. The
details of the amended legislation will be of interest to us. In Ecuador, President-elect
Guillermo Lasso’s administration, also considered receptive to private investment,
likewise faces the similar challenge of restoring fiscal health to public finances, amid
political opposition.9 10

Summary

In sum, we believe many of these scenarios exemplify the challenge facing many LatAm
governments: seeking to improve the business environment and attract capital, while
formulating strategies to sustain public finances and address the societal fallout from
the pandemic. With vaccination campaigns picking up, investors have begun to anticipate
an ebbing tide of the pandemic and quicker economic normalization. Steps toward
reform by some governments and the rising value of the region’s endowment of natural
resources have also attracted capital inflows.

Nonetheless, the prospect of a quicker-than-expected uptrend in longer-dated U.S.

government bond yields—as the U.S. speeds towards economic normalcy—may signal
greater anticipation of a receding tide of liquidity, a consideration for our neutral tactical
weight for emerging markets as a whole. For LatAm, what’s more, investors may place
greater weight on political uncertainty in their capital allocation decisions, particularly if
economic growth lags, in our view. Along with Chile, Colombia and Brazil are scheduled to
hold their presidential elections next year in May and October.

7
Outsider Candidates Upend Chile Politics and Unnerve Investors—Bloomberg (May 20, 2021)
8
Peru presidential candidate outlines new taxes, royalties for miners—Reuters (May 17, 2021)
9
Ecuador: President-Elect Announces Tax Reforms—Bloomberg Tax (May 19, 2021)
10
Ecuador’s Guillermo Lasso Has His Work Cut Out for Him—Americas Quarterly (May 17, 2021)

5 of 7  June 2021 – LatAm Insights

MARKETS IN REVIEW
Equities – MSCI Indices Fixed Income
Total Return in USD (%) Yield (%)
Price Level QTD YTD 1 Year Dec. 31, Prior One
LatAm 2605.9 14.0 7.9 39.2 Levels (%) Current 2020 Year-end year ago
Brazil 2038.9 23.2 10.9 41.6 Brazilian 10-yr 9.47 9.28 6.91 7.17
Mexico 4981.2 5.5 10.0 47.2 Mexican 10-yr 6.82 6.84 5.55 5.99
Colombia 424.6 -3.5 -20.1 15.5 Colombian 10-yr 6.66 6.97 5.39 6.09
Chile 1146.7 -17.0 -3.0 16.9 Chilean 10-yr 4.40 3.49 2.65 2.30
Peru 1176.2 -12.9 -22.2 -0.2 Peruvian 10-yr 5.58 4.95 3.51 3.85
EM Asia 742.2 2.5 4.7 40.3 Returns (%) – Non-Local Currency-based
EM EMEA 274.6 4.8 14.6 28.5 QTD YTD 1 Year
EM Aggregate 1361.3 3.9 6.2 39.5 EM Debt 2.8 -0.3 7.4
Int’l Developed Markets 2308.5 5.3 8.9 31.1 EM Sovereign 3.9 -1.6 8.3
Europe 149.8 7.5 12.0 34.6 EM Corporate 1.8 -0.1 7.7
S&P 500 (not MSCI) 4166.5 5.2 11.7 35.9
Commodities
Currencies Total Return in USD (%)
Levels per USD Price Level QTD YTD 1 Year
Dec. 31, Prior One Aluminum 2375.00 7.3 18.6 43.3
Current 2020 Year-end year ago Copper 415.70 3.9 17.9 57.5
Brazilian Real 5.09 5.63 5.20 5.38 WTI Crude 71.64 20.4 47.5 76.3
Mexican Peso 20.66 20.43 19.91 22.75 Brent Crude 73.51 17.7 45.1 72.1
Colombian Peso 3745.40 3704.37 3429.73 3753.15 Gold 1767.90 3.0 -7.1 -0.2
Chilean Peso 748.42 719.04 711.78 815.90 Source: Bloomberg; Chief Investment Office. Data as of June 18, 2021.
Peruvian Sol 3.95 3.74 3.62 3.53 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance during periods
of exceptional market conditions should not be expected to be repeated in a normal
market environment. Performance results are extremely short term and do not provide
an adequate basis for evaluating performance potential over varying market conditions or
ECONOMIC & MARKET FORECASTS economic cycles. Investment results may have been different had another time period been
chosen for this example.
BofA Global Research Forecasts
Real GDP growth, (%) Consumer Price Inflation*, (%) Short term interest rates*, (%)
2020 2021E 2022E 2020 2021E 2022E 2020 2021E 2022E
LatAm -6.9 5.7 2.5 3.4 5.0 3.5 --- --- ---
Brazil -4.1 5.2 2.1 4.5 5.9 3.5 2.00 6.50 5.25
Mexico -8.5 5.5 2.5 3.2 5.5 3.9 4.25 5.25 5.25
Argentina -9.9 6.0 2.5 36.1 48.5 37.9 40.00 27.00 36.00
Colombia -6.8 5.0 3.0 1.6 3.3 3.1 1.75 1.75 2.75
Chile -5.8 7.4 3.0 3.0 3.8 3.6 0.50 1.75 3.00
Global -3.1 6.0 4.8 2.6 3.0 2.9 --- 2.42 2.50
U.S. -3.5 7.0 5.5 1.2 2.7 2.2 0.13 0.13 0.13
Emerging Markets -1.7 6.4 5.0 4.0 3.4 3.4 --- 4.23 4.33
* Central bank target rate, year-end where available, short-term rates elsewhere. Data as of June 18, 2021.
It is not possible to invest in an index. Please note that there are limitations when viewing short-term performance results. This short-term performance may not be achieved over longer time periods.
Economic or financial forecasts are inherently limited and should not be relied on as indicators of future investment performance.

LATAM IN BRIEF
Brazil—The number of new daily cases of the coronavirus may be
peaking, though it remains high. However, satisfactory procurement to fuel
an accelerating vaccination drive should lead to an improving economic
outlook this year. Headwinds still include reduced fiscal stimulus to the
economy and inflation, which at 8.1% in May has surpassed the central
bank’s target ceiling. Longer-term, BofA Global Research expects real
GDP to return closer to trend growth. Structural reforms remain key to
the outlook.
Argentina—Along with the Paris Club, a group of wealthy nations, the
government is in talks with the IMF to restructure debt obligations. BofA
Global Research expects a deal with the latter to restructure roughly
$45 billion in debt soon after midterm elections in November. While the
economy may slow in the second quarter, accelerating vaccinations argue
for an improved outlook in the second half of the year, which should help
provide a tailwind for the negotiations.

Mexico—BofA Global Research has recently upgraded its outlook for real
GDP. Stronger performance by the U.S. economy has benefitted Mexican
exports, while remittances have helped support consumption. Mexico has
not experienced a third wave of the coronavirus, unlike many of its peers.
However, the vaccination campaign remains sluggish, risking a renewed
wave of the virus. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain above the
central bank’s target of 3%. Additional headwinds are tight fiscal policy
and continued domestic political uncertainty.
Chile—Daily new cases of the coronavirus, which led to a relative
tightening of mobility restrictions, seem to be on the decline. BofA Global
Research expects the rebound to endure due to an increased share of the
population being vaccinated. With gross debt comprising under 40% of
GDP, relatively low compared to most of its peers, and political pressure,
fiscal stimulus may be increased to cushion economic weakness in case
mobility restrictions are enhanced to combat the virus.

6 of 7  June 2021 – LatAm Insights Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Index Definitions
Securities indexes assume reinvestment of all distributions and interest payments. Indexes are unmanaged and do not take into account fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest
directly in an index.
Indexes are all based in dollars.
Argentina Merval Index: A basket weighted index, is the market value of a stock portfolio, selected according to participation in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, number of transactions of the past six
months and trading value. The index has a base value of $0.01 as of June 30, 1986. The index is revised every three months, taking into account the trading volumes over the past six months.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: The Bloomberg Commodity Index reflects commodity futures price movements. It is a financial benchmark designed to provide liquid and diversified exposure
to physical commodities via futures contracts. The index rebalances annually weighted two-thirds by trading volume and one-third by world production and weight-caps are applied at the
commodity, sector and group level for diversification. Roll period typically occurs from 6th-10th business day based on the roll schedule..
MSCI Latin America Index: The MSCI EM Latin America Index is a free-float weighted equity index covering the region. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31 1987.
MSCI Brazil Index: The MSCI Brazil Index is a free-float weighted equity index covering the country. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1987.
MSCI Mexico Index: The MSCI Mexico Index is a free-float weighted equity index covering the country. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31 1987.
MSCI Colombia Index: The MSCI Colombia Index is a free-float weighted equity index covering the country. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31 1992.
MSCI Chile Index: The MSCI Chile Index is a free-float weighted equity index covering the country. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31 1987.
MSCI Peru Index: The MSCI Peru Index is a free-float weighted equity index covering the country. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31 1992.
MSCI EM Asia Index: The MSCI EM Asia Index is a free-float weighted equity index covering EM Asia. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1987.
MSCI EM EMEA Index: The MSCI Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Index is a free-float weighted equity index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 and a base date of December 31
of 1998.
EM Aggregate: The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index
covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
Int’l Developed Markets: The MSCI World ex USA Index is a free-float weighted equity index covering international developed markets. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of
December 31, 1969.
S&P 500: Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in
the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period.
MSCI Europe Index: The MSCI Europe Index is a free-float weighted equity index designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in Europe. It was developed
with a base value of 100 as December 31, 1998.

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7 of 7  June 2021 – LatAm Insights