You are on page 1of 14

BAV

Session 13

In long term RoE CoE


In long term RoC CoC

Two phase
Three Phase

reported profit

100

RoC

20%

CoC

10%

Reinvests

50%

Growth rate
Stable Growth rate
Stable reivestment rate

10.0% 20%*50%
5%
25.00%

Case A
sixth year income
Reinvestment

169.1036
25%

Value from 6th year

2536.553

1
110
55

Reported income
income after reinvestment

PV factors
Total PV

1.1
50
1825

2
121
60.5

1.21
50

3
133.1
66.55

4
5
146.41 161.051
73.205 80.5255

1.331
50

2536.553
1.4641 1.61051
50
1625

Case B
sixth year income

169.1036

Reinvestment
Value from 6th year

50%
1691.036

Reported income

100

income after reinvestment

110

121

133.1

146.41 161.051

55

60.5

66.55

73.205 80.5255
1691.036

PV factors
Total PV

1300

1.1

1.21

1.331

50

50

50

1.4641 1.61051
50

1100

Case C
sixth year income

167.493

Reinvestment
Value from 6th year

40%
1674.93

Reported income

100

income after reinvestment

110

121

133.1

146.41 161.051

55

60.5

66.55

73.205 96.6306
1674.93

PV factors
Total PV

1300

1.1

1.21

1.331

50

50

50

1.4641 1.61051
50

1100

Case D
sixth year income
Reinvestment

167.493
0%

Value from 6th year

1674.93

Reported income
100
income after reinvestment
PV factors
Total PV

1300

1
110
55

2
121
60.5

3
133.1
66.55

1.1
50

1.21
50

1.331
50

4
5
146.41 161.051
73.205 96.6306
1674.93
1.4641 1.61051
50
1100

Dividend Discount Model


Three phase dividend discount model
RoE
CoE
Payout ratio

DDM
RoE
DPS
EPS
Payout ratio
Reinvestment
Growth rate

23.22%
5.5
33.27
16.53%
83.47%
19.38%
Growth

Beta
R free
Mkt Premium
CoE
Growth rate
Reinvestment

Stable
1.1
6%
7%
13.70%

1
6%
5.50%
11.50%
4%
34.78%

DDM

Year

0.44% CoE

13.26% 12.82% 12.38% 11.94% 11.50%

9.74% Payout ratio

26.27% 36.01% 45.74% 55.48% 65.22%

Growth
3.08% Rate

16.31% 13.23% 10.15%

7.08%

4.00%

DDM
year

10

11

33.27

39.72

47.42

56.60

67.57

80.67

93.82

106.24

117.02

125.30

130.32

135.53

5.50

6.57

7.84

9.36

11.17

13.33

24.65

38.25

53.53

69.52

84.99

Discounting factor

0.88

0.77

0.68

0.60

0.53

0.46

0.41

0.37

0.33

0.29

PV of Dividend

5.77

6.06

6.37

6.68

7.02

11.45

15.75

19.62

22.76

24.95

EPS
Payout

Terminal Value

1178.53

PV of terminal
Value

346.04

Total Value of
equity

472.48

FCFE
Cost of equity
beta

R Free

5%

Mkt Premium

4%

CoE

9.00%

Stable period
growth rate
RoE
equity reinvestment rate

4%
12%
33.33%

FCFE
0

1000

1100

1210

1331

1464.1

1610.51

100

110

121

133.1

146.41

161.051

capex

75

82.5

90.75

depreciation

50

55

60.5

66.55

73.205

80.5255

NWC

50

55

60.5

66.55

73.205

80.5255

5.5

6.05

6.655

7.3205

11

12.1

13.31

14.641

16.1051

88.5

97.35

33

36.3

Revenue
net income

Change NWC

Net Debt

10

FCFE
Dividends

30

99.825 109.8075 120.7883

107.085 117.7935 129.5729


39.93

43.923

48.3153

FCFE
Value of equity at end of 6th
Year
NetIncome

Equity Reinvestment rate

167.49304 161.051*1.04

33.33%

CoE

9%

Growth rate

4%

Value

2233.3522

FCFE

88.5

97.35

107.085 117.7935

129.5729

Terminal Value

2233.352

PV Value
PV Value of equity

1865.0065

1.09

1.1881

1.295029 1.411582

1.538624

81.19266

81.93755

82.68927 83.44789

1535.739

You might also like