The weekly briefing | 17 March 2014

Political and security risk updates

Africa: Former i!yan prime minister flees country after !eing ousted o"er tanker dispute# Americas: $ontested result in %l &al"ador's second(round presidential election# Asia and Pacific: )apan's *iet likely to rela+ the country's arms e+port !an# Europe: $rimean parliament declares independence from ,kraine as "oters in referendum choose to -oin .ussia# Middle East: /it(for(tat cross(!order fire !et0een Palestinian fighters in the 1a2a &trip and the 3sraeli military has reached le"els that ha"e not !een seen since 4o"em!er 2012# Polar regions: 4or0ay calls on 4ordic neigh!ours to -oin 45/O#

5frica
Former Libyan prime minister flees country after being ousted o er tanker dispute Former i!yan Prime Minister 5li 6eidan fled the country on 11 March after !eing ousted !y the parliament in a no(confidence "ote# /he uphea"al 0as caused !y a 4orth 7orean(flagged oil tanker8 the Morning 1lory8 loading crude oil from the re!el(held port of %s &ider !efore setting sail8 despite attempts !y the i!yan na"y to stop it# %arlier during the 0eek8 some of i!ya9s most po0erful re!el groups8 0ho demand regional autonomy from /ripoli and ha"e significantly undermined the central go"ernment9s authority in the 0ake of the 2011 re"olution8 !egan e+porting oil in defiance of the go"ernment !an# 6eidan9s ousting follo0s pre"ious unsuccessful attempts !y different i!yan factions to remo"e him from po0er8 including a !rief a!duction !y an armed group last Octo!er# 6eidan had pre"iously spent se"eral years in e+ile in 1ermany8 and is !elie"ed to ha"e returned there after a refuelling stop in Malta late on 11 March# :e has defied a !an from tra"elling a!road8 0hich 0as imposed due to his suspected in"ol"ement in the em!e22lement of pu!lic funds# :e claimed in an inter"ie0 0ith French !roadcaster France 24 on 1; March that the no(confidence "ote against him had !een falsified# /he ousting of the prime minister 0ill strengthen the moti"ation of the country9s 3slamist organisations that are conducting an insurgency against the transitional go"ernment8 in con-unction 0ith local militia groups#

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4orth 7orea has denied any in"ol"ement 0ith the "essel8 and as the 4orth 7orean flag is fre<uently used to hide the true o0nership of cargo "essels8 it remains unclear 0here the tanker loaded 0ith crude oil 0as headed# ate on 1= March8 ,& 4a"y &%5 s !oarded and took control of the Morning 1lory in international 0aters south of $yprus# Mean0hile8 the i!yan defence minister8 5!dullah al(/hani8 0as named as 6eidan9s interim successor for a period of t0o 0eeks8 during 0hich time the national assem!ly 0ill ha"e to agree on a permanent replacement# /he latest turmoil adds to >estern fears that the OP%$ mem!er state might !reak apart into re!el(held territories8 0ith three ma-or ports already under re!el control8 causing a nota!le impact on the i!yan economy and national reconstruction process# On 14 March8 the ,4 &ecurity $ouncil adopted a resolution e+tending its mission in i!ya ?,4&M3 @ and sanctions regime for another year# "ther de elopments Two leaders of #udan$s main rebel alliance% the #udan People$s Liberation Mo ement&'orth (#PLM& ')% ha e been sentenced to death in absentia in a mo e likely to further increase tensions* Malik 5gar8 the former go"ernor of Blue 4ile &tate8 and politician Aasir 5rman8 0ho stood against &udanese President Omar :assan al(Bashir in the 2010 elections8 0ere sentenced to death on 1; March along 0ith 1B others on charges of terrorism and for staging a 0ar against the state# /he sentence follo0s the collapse of talks led !y the 5frican ,nion to !reak the deadlock !et0een the &P M(4 and the &udanese go"ernment# +' and ,ongolese forces attacked -wandan .utu rebels near the /emocratic -epublic of ,ongo$s (/- ,ongo) eastern border* /roops from the ,4 mission MO4,&$O 0ere deployed in the 4orth 7i"u pro"ince to !ack a $ongolese offensi"e against the *emocratic Forces for the i!eration of .0anda ?F* .@8 0hich consists of !oth former .0andan soldiers and :utu militiamen that fled to the *. $ongo after taking part in the .0andan genocide of 1CC4# /he $ongolese go"ernment announced it 0ould not stop its offensi"es until the F* .8 0hich human rights organisations accuse of murder and rape of ci"ilians8 is ready to !egin a disarmament process# Three people were killed during fresh clashes in 0hardaia city% Algeria* /he deaths on 1B March occurred during rene0ed "iolence in the :ad- Messaoud area of 1hardaia8 northern(central 5lgeria8 !et0een the $haam!i and Mo2a!ite communities# /he deaths are !elie"ed to ha"e !een triggered !y a minor incident !et0een the t0o ethnic(5ra! and ethnic(Ber!er groups during the re(eruption of "iolence on 11 March8 highlighting !oth the pre"alence of ethnic tensions and an incapacity to control the "iolence8 despite the deployment of additional security forces to 1hardaia city# "n the radar East African countries are preparing to deploy troops to #outh #udan as go"ernment forces step up their !attle against re!els operating around the strategic to0n of Malakal# The +' emergency relief coordinator$s report from #omalia is due to be published on 21 March# The #outh African political mo ement Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) is to step up its campaign for the upcoming national elections% 0ith contro"ersial proposals to e+propriate 0hite farmers9 land and nationalise !anks and mines# Further anti&go ernment protests are e1pected in 2hartoum% #udan% to denounce the use of !atons and tear gas used !y police to dispel protesters on 1B March# Open Briefing | !

5mericas
,ontested result in El #al ador4s second&round presidential election On the e"ening of C March8 &al"ador &Dnche2 $eren of the ruling left(0ing Fara!undo MartE 4ational i!eration Front ?FM 4@ 0on the second round of %l &al"ador's presidential election# :is "ictory 0as !ased on the narro0est margin8 0ith a 0#22 points ad"antage o"er his opponent8 4orman Fui-ano of the right( 0ing 4ational .epu!lican 5lliance ?5rena@# /his difference represents -ust =8;=4 "otes8 in an election 0ith a!out three million !allots cast# Fui-ano re-ected the initial results 0hen they 0ere pu!lished !ecause of ill(defined fraud charges# /his led the &upreme %lectoral /ri!unal ?/&%@ to suspend the official proclamation of a 0inner until it has "erified the "otes# :o0e"er8 despite 5rena's demands8 the /&% has until no0 refused to proceed to a "ote !y "ote recount# &uch a procedure is 0arranted !y the %l &al"ador constitution only under e+treme circumstances8 0hich ha"e not !een met# /hus8 on 11 March8 5rena called for the election to !e annulled8 putting an end to the /&% "erification process# Protest marches ha"e also !een organised !y 5rena supporters in the capital8 &an &al"ador# $eren 0as the dri"ing force !ehind the struggle !et0een the FM 4 guerrilla group and the totalitarian conser"ati"e regime during %l &al"ador's ci"il 0ar ?1C7C(C2@# Follo0ing his imposing 10(point lead o"er his ri"al in the first round of the presidential elections on 2 Fe!ruary8 it 0as e+pected that he 0ould 0in !y an e"en larger margin on C March# :o0e"er8 Fui-ano skilfully managed to increase his support !ase in the period !et0een the t0o rounds# 5 ma-or factor that influenced the change in electoral preferences 0as the ongoing Gene2uelan de!acle8 0hich se"erely undermined the FM 4 re"olutionary rhetoric# Moreo"er8 Fui-ano !enefited from the une+pected support of "oters supporting first(round candidate /ony &aca8 in spite of his tacit support for $eren# /he une+pected re(emergence of Fui-ano marks the return of 5rena to the forefront of the %l &al"ador political scene# /he 5rena party8 0hich held po0er from 1CHC to 200C8 has !een plagued !y internal di"isions since it e+pelled former president 5ntonio &aca from its ranks in 200C# /he narro0ness of the results is likely to further fuel tensions !et0een %l &al"ador's ma-or parties8 5rena and the FM 4# Aet8 the country is !adly in need of a policy consensus8 nota!ly to sol"e its chronic pro!lems 0ith "iolence and rampant po"erty# %l &al"ador has !een su!-ected to "iolent gang acti"ity since the deportation from the ,nited &tates of many gang mem!ers in the mid(1CC0s# 3t is also significantly affected !y 0idespread underde"elopment8 0ith 40I of its population li"ing in conditions of po"erty# 3n spite of Fui-ano's accusation of the /&%'s implicit !acking for the FM 48 the ,nited 4ations delegation in %l &al"ador has gi"en the tri!unal its support# /he ne+t president should take office on 1 )une for the period 2014(1C# "ther de elopments Former ,olumbian President Al aro +ribe4s position has been strengthened after congressional elections* 3n the elections8 ,ri!e's right(0ing *emocratic $entre ?$*@ gained 1C seats in the senate and 12 in the deputy cham!er8 making the party the principle opposition force to President )uan Manuel &antos's &ocial Party of 4ational ,nity8 though &antos maintains a ma-ority in !oth cham!ers# &antos 0as the head of ,ri!e's Ministry of *efence from 200= to 200C8 during 0hich time he em!raced the president's offensi"e stance against the .e"olutionary 5rmed Forces of $olom!ia ?F5.$@# :o0e"er8 follo0ing his election in 20108 he has adopted a more consensual approach to the F5.$ issue8 resulting in a split !et0een the former colleagues# Open Briefing | 3

The 1! foreign ministers of the +nion of #outh American 'ations (+'A#+-) met in #antiago% ,hile% on 1! March to discuss the ongoing crisis in 6ene7uela* /he meeting 0as called !y Gene2uela's President 4icolDs Maduro and recei"ed much support in its organisation from Bra2il's President *ilma .ousseff# :o0e"er8 it failed to deli"er a sustaina!le mechanism for the resolution of Gene2uela's crisis# 4ota!ly8 the meeting recei"ed a ma-or !lo0 after Maduro announced that he 0ould not attend the summit in &antiago# ,45&,. is to send a delegation to Gene2uela in the coming 0eeks# Last week% a ci il militia in the state of Michoac8n% Me1ico% surrendered its weapons to national authorities as part of a criminal in estigation* For o"er a year8 ci"ilians ha"e !een organising "igilante groups to defend their "illages from the po0erful drug cartels that operate in the area# 5t the !eginning of the year8 Me+ican President %nri<ue PeJa 4ieto ordered the militarisation of the region and incorporated the ci"il militias into a coalition against the drug traffickers# :o0e"er8 some militias ha"e !ecome in"ol"ed in criminal acti"ities8 su!se<uently -eopardising PeJa 4ieto's security strategy# "n the radar 9ashington to issue sanctions against 6ene7uela o"er the ongoing student protests crisis in the country# +nionised miners to stage nationwide strikes across Peru on 17 March# Paraguayan transport unions set to stage a nationwide strike o er wage issues on 2= March#

5sia and Pacific

:apan4s /iet likely to rela1 the country4s arms e1port ban On 1; March8 the ruling !lock in )apan's *iet indicated that it is likely to appro"e recently proposed ad-ustments to the country's 0eapons e+port !an# /he ma-ority coalition8 consisting of the i!eral *emocratic Party ? *P@ and its partner8 4e0 7omeito8 e+pressed appro"al of the proposal it recei"ed from Prime Minister &hin2o 5!e's go"ernment# /he changes are intended to esta!lish Kthree principles on transferring defence e<uipment' that 0ill replace e+isting regulations# ,nder the ne0 regulations8 )apan 0ould !e a!le to e+port 0eapons and defence e<uipment to neigh!ouring countries# 4e"ertheless8 the regulations 0ould still prohi!it the e+port of 0eapons to states currently engaged in "iolent conflict# )apan's e+isting regulations 0ere adopted in 1C=7 and prohi!ited the sale of defence e<uipment to communist countries8 countries engaged in international conflict8 and states against 0hich the ,nited 4ations has esta!lished arms em!argoes# /hese regulations 0ere e+panded in 1C7=8 a mo"e 0hich essentially !anned all e+ports of 0eapons from )apan# /he ne0 regulations 0ill re<uire that e+port permits 0ill !e issued only once a set of criteria ha"e !een met# &pecifically8 arms sales must !e demonstrated to contri!ute to )apanese national security8 international peace and cooperation# 5t present8 the %conomy8 /rade and 3ndustry Ministry is responsi!le for e+ports of defence e<uipmentL ho0e"er8 under the ne0 policy8 in urgent or emergency situations8 the national security council 0ould ha"e -urisdiction o"er 0eapons e+ports#

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)apan argues that the changes 0ill not only allo0 more acti"e participation in international peacekeeping operations and support )apanese national security interests8 !ut also !olster domestic industrial production# .ela+ation of the e+port policies 0ould allo0 0eapons e+ports to )apan's neigh!ours for the purpose of protecting important sea lanes# 4e"ertheless8 many of the countries to 0hich )apan may e+port 0eapons are engaged in territorial disputes 0ith $hina o"er a num!er of small islands in the &outh $hina &ea# 5dditionally8 $hina has recently sought to use its e+panding na"al po0er to play a more acti"e role in maritime security# /hus8 $hina is likely to oppose the amendments to the )apanese policy# "ther de elopments 'orth 2orea fired !; short&range missiles into the #ea of :apan on 1< March* /he missiles8 !elie"ed to !e F.O1 surface to surface missiles8 0ere fired in three stages during &unday e"ening# /en 0ere launched shortly !efore 1HM208 eight more 0ere fired at around 20M00 and a final se"en at appro+imately 21M;08 and 0ere reported to ha"e tra"elled 4; miles !efore finally landing in the sea# /he recent launches come -ust o"er t0o 0eeks after 4orth 7orea fired a num!er of scud missiles into the sea in 0hat appeared to !e a statement against &outh 7orea and the ,nited &tates' -oint annual military training operations# Maoist insurgents in the =ndian state of ,hhattisgarh killed 1; police officers on 11 March* Police forces in the &ukma district of $hhattisgarh 0ere am!ushed !y nearly 200 mem!ers of the 4a+al re!el mo"ement in an attack lasting o"er t0o hours# /he re!els had planted landmines in the /ongapal -ungle 0here a team of nearly B0 police officers 0ere on duty8 0hich delayed the deployment of police reinforcements# 3t is not kno0n if the attackers sustained any in-uries# /he 4a+al insurgency dates !ack to the 1C=0s8 and has reportedly !een responsi!le for o"er 128000 deaths in the past t0o decades# /he insurgents ha"e historically targeted !oth ci"ilian and state officials in their attacks# Giolence is pre"alent in the north and southeastern regions of 3ndia8 and the insurgency is regarded as a ma-or internal security threat !y the 3ndian go"ernment# Last week saw a significant reduction in the anti&go ernment protests that ha e raged in >angkok% Thailand% since late !?13* 5lthough the main protest mo"ement is no0 confined to a pu!lic park in the capital8 the economic damage from the protests remains diffuse# &trong contro"ersy surrounds a go"ernment rice su!sidy scheme that is !lamed for damaging the purchasing po0er of farmers8 for 0hich Prime Minister Aingluck &hina0atra is presently facing negligence changes# /he protests ha"e led to a massi"e reduction in tourism8 a key industry in /hailand8 and damaged flo0s of pri"ate in"estment !oth from a!road and domestically# >hile most 5sian $entral Banks ha"e !een increasing domestic interest rates N a reaction to the ,& $entral Bank's policy announcements earlier this year N /hailand's central !ank has lo0ered interest rates to a ne0 three(year lo0# /he mo"e is an attempt to !oost consumer spending and reduce the costs of !orro0ing in /hailand# "n the radar :apan4s massi e new nuclear material factory is nearing completion in -okkasho% north of Tokyo% and has led to international criticism of )apan's lo0(grade nuclear security system Further protests e1pected by the >angladesh 'ationalist Party o"er alleged election fraud# =ncreased security and further unrest is e1pected in Larkana% Pakistan% follo0ing the recent rioting o"er the alleged desecration of the 7oran !y a :indu youth# #tudents to protest in 2athmandu% 'epal% on 1H and 1C March8 o"er the increase in fuel prices# Open Briefing | ;

%urope
,rimean parliament declares independence from +kraine as oters in referendum choose to @oin -ussia 5s the ,krainian parliament appro"ed a motion to dissol"e the $rimean assem!ly8 talks took place in ondon on 14 March !et0een .ussia and the ,nited &tates in an attempt to resol"e the crisis in $rimea# /he .ussian foreign minister8 &ergei a"ro"8 claimed that no common cause had !een found8 0hile the ,& secretary of state8 )ohn 7erry8 reported that the .ussians had re-ected proposals that 0ould respect ,krainian integrity 0hile soothing Mosco0's concerns# a"ro" maintained that .ussia 0ould respect the 0ill of the $rimean people as e+pressed through the results of the referendum on the 1= March# :e also denied that .ussia planned to in"ade southeast ,kraine8 !ut reiterated Mosco0's claim that .ussia has the right to protect ethnic .ussians in eastern ,kraine if the unrest continues# %arlier in the 0eek8 the 17 issued a statement condemning the anne+ation of $rimea as a "iolation of the ,nited 4ations $harter# /he 17 has stated that the $rimean referendum has no legal !asis8 and has called for .ussia to 0ithdra0 the troops that it has already deployed to the region# 17 countries ha"e also 0arned .ussia that they are suspending any preparation for the planned 1H meeting in &ochi this summer until .ussia changes course or is 0illing to come to a meaningful compromise# On the 1B March8 the ,4 &ecurity $ouncil "oted on a ,&(!acked resolution condemning the $rimean referendum# /he resolution 0as "etoed !y the .ussian representati"e8 and a!stained from !y $hina8 0hile all the other mem!ers "oted in fa"our of the motion# On 1C March8 the ,& go"ernment 0ill put for0ard a !ill that 0ill authorise O!ama to impose economic penalties on .ussian and ,krainian indi"iduals in"ol"ed in the takeo"er of the $rimean peninsula8 and 0ould appro"e a O1 !illion loan to the ,krainian go"ernment# /he final results from the 1= March referendum in $rimea sho0ed C=#HI of "oters in fa"our of -oining .ussia# /he result of the referendum 0as largely seen as pre(determined8 gi"en that BHI of $rimea's 2#; million inha!itants are ethnic .ussians and there 0as no status <uo option on the !allot paper# On 17 March8 the $rimean parliament declared independence from ,kraine and applied to !ecome part of the .ussian Federation# /he process of separation from the ,kraine 0ill !e a long and arduous procedure8 not least due to the reliance of $rimea on ,krainian food8 gas8 electricity and 0ater supplies8 all of 0hich 0ill ha"e to !e renegotiated !y the ne0ly formed ,krainian go"ernment and the to !e appointed ?presuma!ly .ussian@ local go"ernment# N:o0e"er8 as $rimea is dependent on ,kraine8 ,kraine is dependent on .ussiaM ,kraine imports almost all its energy in the form of .ussian gas8 and any sanctions !rought against the ne0ly formed .ussian principality 0ould undou!tedly !e follo0ed !y se"ere penalties imposed !y Mosco0# 3f ,kraine refuses to come to a settlement 0ith $rimea post separation8 it could pro"ide .ussia 0ith the moti"ation it needs to impose crippling sanctions on ,kraine or8 if it feels there is a threat to the $rimea or .ussian speaking nati"es8 in"ade eastern ,kraine in order to secure its o0n interests# "ther de elopments Turkish riot police ha e responded with tear gas% rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse protesters* On 11 March8 protesters took to the streets across ;0 cities in /urkey after hearing the ne0s of the death of Berkin %l"an8 a 1B(year(old !oy 0ho had !een struck !y a tear gas canister 0hile out purchasing !read during the 1e2i Park protests in )une 201;# /he teenager8 0ho had !een in a coma for 2=C days8 !ecame a sym!ol for the anti(go"ernment protesters against hea"y(hand tactics used !y the security forces to cur! demonstrations against Prime Minister .ecep /ayyip %rdogan and his go"ernment# Open Briefing | <

On 12 March8 B08000 gathered to attend %l"an's funeral in 3stan!ul and nation0ide protests continued# /he 1e2i Park protests originally !roke out on ;0 May 201; follo0ing the announcement of plans to rede"elop the park in 3stan!ul and soon spread nation0ide as demonstrations against the go"ernment# %rdogan's go"ernment has faced a series of protests in recent months o"er allegations of corruption in the go"ernment and recent !ills cur!ing freedoms on the internet and the tightening of the authorities' control o"er the -udiciary# /his is a highly sensiti"e time in /urkish politics 0ith local elections to !e held on ;0 March# #lo akia held the first round of presidential elections on 1; March* /here is concern that if current Prime Minister .o!ert Fico 0ins the election8 his party8 the &ocial *emocrats8 0ould hold a monopoly o"er po0er8 as it 0ould control !oth the parliament and the go"ernment# Fico has held t0o terms as prime minister and has 0on support for the go"ernment's anti(austerity measures and fiscal discipline# 3n &aturday9s first round8 Fico polled 2H#2I8 0ith his closest ri"al8 5ndrei 7iska8 a millionaire philanthropist8 on 24I# 5 second round of the "ote 0ill !e held on 2C March# &hould Fico 0in the presidency8 his go"ernment 0ill face a reshuffle !ut 0ill still control H; out of 1B0 seats in the parliament until the ne+t parliamentary elections in 201=# >elarusian President Ale1ander Lukashenko informed the >elarusian #ecurity ,ouncil on 1! March that -ussia had been asked to reinforce the @oint formation of troops and deploy another 1; air force planes in >elarus* /his is seen as a response to increasing tensions !et0een .ussia and the >est and 45/O's decision to !uild up its military presence near the Belarusian !oarder# On 10 March8 45/O announced the deployment of reconnaissance planes in Poland and .omania to monitor the crisis in ,kraine and that 1B airplanes 0ould !e redeployed from 3taly to the Baltic &tates# "n the radar The European Parliament4s =nternational Trade ,ommittee will ote on whether to end or greatly reduce customs duties on E+ imports from +kraine* A 5B&hour strike opposing austerity measures is planned for 1C&!? March across 0reece* Turkish local elections to be held on ;0 March# European +nion Foreign Affairs ,ouncil meeting is scheduled for 1A March* E+&+# summit to be held in >russels on 2= March#

Middle %ast
Tit&for&tat cross&border fire between Palestinian fighters in the 0a7a #trip and the =sraeli military has reached le els that ha e not been seen since 'o ember !?1! 3sraeli airstrikes in the 1a2a &trip on 11 March killed three Palestinians associated 0ith the group 3slamic )ihad# Militants had fired cross(!order rockets into 3srael follo0ing the deaths of three Palestinian's in"ol"ed in confrontations 0ith 3sraeli security forces on 10 March# /he death of three of its mem!ers prompted 3slamic )ihad to fire up to C0 further rockets into 3srael on 12 March# /he 3sraeli military responded !y !om!ing 2C militant targets# /it(for(tat fire !et0een 3srael and militants in the 1a2a &trip continued into 1; March#

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/he "iolence has reached le"els not seen in the 1a2a &trip since the eight(day 0ar in 4o"em!er 2012# 3srael defended its actions and stated that they shall continue to attack those that seek to attack them8 and that Kif there is no <uiet in the south Pof 3sraelQ then it 0ill !e noisy in 1a2a'# >ashington has condemned the rocket fire and insisted that 3srael has a right to defend itself from terrorist attacks# /he ,nited 4ations has called for restraint on all sides# :o0e"er in the Middle %ast8 3srael's military response has reignited anti(3sraeli sentiment# Palestinian authorities ha"e accused 3srael of increasing the likelihood of "iolence spiralling out of control# /he al(Fuds Brigades8 :amas and 3slamic )ihad ha"e all claimed that they 0ill respond to the 3sraeli Kaggression'# 3srael remo"ed its soldiers and settlers from the 1a2a &trip in 200B8 !ut maintains a na"al and air !lockade and restricts the mo"ement of people and goods across the !order into the territory# 3sraeli officials ha"e closed the 7erem &halom crossing in response to the rocket fire8 further restricting the passage of goods# 3srael has !een accused of acting aggressi"ely in Palestinian territories# 5 report pu!lished last month indicated that more Palestinians 0ere killed in 201; than in the t0o pre"ious years com!ined8 and 5mnesty 3nternational has accused the 3sraeli military of using e+cessi"e "iolence in the >est Bank o"er the past three years# 3ncidents of cross(!order rocket fire into 3srael are e+pected to continue and an escalation of "iolence in the coming 0eeks remains likely# "ther de elopments 0unmen in the Egyptian capital of ,airo attacked a bus carrying military personnel* /he !us 0as tra"elling through the 5miriya neigh!ourhood on 1; March 0hen masked gunmen on a motorcycle opened fire# One officer 0as killed and three others 0ere 0ounded in the attack# /he %gyptian military !lamed the attack on the outla0ed Muslim Brotherhood8 though the Brotherhood released a statement condemning the attack and accused the go"ernment of attempting to incriminate the political organisation in order to dri"e them deeper underground# 5ttacks on security personnel and infrastructure ha"e !ecome commonplace in %gypt since the ousting of Brotherhood leader and former president Mohammed Morsi in )uly 201;# Militant acti"ity in the country8 particularly on the &inai Peninsula8 remains a ma-or security threat# #hi4ite .outhi fighters attacked an army base close to the Demeni capital% #anaa% on 13 March* /0o soldiers 0ere killed and four others 0ere in-ured8 four :outhi fighters 0ere also in-ured in the attack# &ectarian fighting !et0een :outhi and &unni tri!esmen has escalated since Octo!er 201;8 and 40 people 0ere killed in sectarian clashes o"er three days earlier this month# /he plan to transform Aemen into si+ federally administered regions has !een re-ected !y :outhis in the north8 0ho !elie"e that the country is !eing di"ided !et0een rich and poor# Giolence in Aemen is a concern for 1ulf &tates and the ,nited &tates !ecause of its strategic position alongside the .ed &ea and 1ulf of 5den shipping lanes# The +nited 'ations .uman -ights ,ouncil published a report on the use of drone strikes and the une1pected deaths of ci ilians* /he report 0as presented in 1ene"a on 12 March !y ,4 special rapporteur Ben %mmerson# $oncerns ha"e !een raised o"er the increase in use of drone attacks in 5fghanistan and Aemen in 201;8 though a reduction in drone strikes in Pakistan 0as 0itnessed during the same period# /he ma-ority of strikes are carried out !y the ,nited &tates8 and the report recommends that countries ha"e an o!ligation to carry out in<uiries into drone attacks that in"ol"e the deaths of ci"ilians#

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"n the radar !1 March marks the =ranian 'ew Dear and the start of the latest round of talks with the P;E1 aimed at cur!ing 3ran's nuclear am!itions# Protests are e1pected to continue in Egypt in support of former president Mohammed Morsi8 and against the possi!ility of %gypt's military chief8 5!del Fattah el(&isi8 announcing his candidacy for presidency The director of the /epartment for #ecurity Affairs and /isarmament in -ussia4s Ministry of Foreign Affairs% Mikhail +lyano % belie es that #yria4s chemical weapons should be remo ed and destroyed outside the country by 13 April* 1C March marks the anni ersary of the +nited #tates in asion of =raF in !??3*

Polar .egions
'orway calls on 'ordic neighbours to @oin 'AT" /he 4or0egian defence minister8 3ne %riksen &Rreide8 stated that !oth Finland and &0eden 0ere 0elcome to -oin 45/O as full mem!ers during a roundta!le discussion !et0een 4ordic defence ministers !roadcast on the Finnish tele"ision net0ork A % on 12 March# /he in"itation 0as e+plicitly linked to .ussia's "iolation of ,krainian so"ereignty in $rimea8 0ith the defence ministers of Finland8 &0eden and 4or0ay8 in addition to %stonian defence ministry undersecretary &"en &akko"8 unanimously accusing .ussia of seeking territorial am!itions at the e+pense of its neigh!ours# &akko" connected the current crisis in ,kraine to .ussia's in"ol"ement in 1eorgia in 200H8 and the &0edish defence minister8 7arin %nstrSm8 criticised .ussia for !asing its foreign policy e+clusi"ely on Kgeopolitics'# /he crisis in $rimea did not spark the de!ate in &0eden and Finland as to 0hether to -oin 45/O ?4or0ay and %stonia are already mem!ers@ !ut rather rekindled a discussion that 4ordic defence ministers ha"e !een conducting for many years# 45/O mem!ership 0ould afford &0eden and Finland protection under 5rticle B of the organisation's charter8 0hich specifies that an attack on one alliance mem!er is an attack on all# 1i"en .ussia's increasingly !elligerent stance in the Baltic8 0ith numerous !om!ing simulations flo0n last year o"er Finland and &0eden8 such a guarantee 0ould !e a 0elcome security asset for the "ulnera!le 4ordic states# On the other hand8 full mem!ership could pro"oke the "ery aggression from .ussia that it is supposed to deterM in 201; .ussian defence chief 4ikolai Makaro" threatened that such a mo"e could ha"e Kserious political and trade conse<uences' for .ussia's 4ordic neigh!ours# .ussia's gam!it in $rimea has made the prospect of 45/O mem!ership for &0eden and Finland more attracti"e8 yet has simultaneously demonstrated that the .ussian go"ernment is ready to take decisi"e and e"en risky action to maintain8 or e"en re"erse8 the current !alance of po0er 0ith its neigh!ours# 3ndeed8 such a programme has essentially !een the guiding principle of .ussia's foreign and security policy since Gladimir Putin first !ecame president in 2000# Furthermore8 the programme ser"es a domestic purposeM there is a deep popular perception in .ussia that 45/O e+pansion east0ards in the 1CC0s and early 2000s represented a complete humiliation for the country8 and Putin's percei"ed reassertion of .ussian military might is one of his fe0 genuinely effecti"e legitimisation de"ices# .ussia 0ould therefore ha"e !oth the capa!ility and moti"e for follo0ing through 0ith Makaro"'s threats should &0eden and Finland decide to -oin 45/O#

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"ther de elopments The European +nion parliament has passed a resolution that calls for increased protection in the high Arctic from de elopment acti ities* /he resolution8 passed on 12 March8 is not !inding8 and the legal procedure it sets out for esta!lishing protected 2ones 0ould ha"e to !e coordinated 0ith the fi"e 5rctic coastal states8 a process made e"en more difficult !y the fact that the coastal states' %+clusi"e %conomic 6ones ?%%6s@ are still a0aiting legal definition# /he resolution is thus unlikely to ha"e a practical legal effect8 !ut is more pro!a!ly intended as a political statement# /he %, is seeking to !ecome more in"ol"ed in 5rctic affairs8 a mo"e supported !y %, 5rctic states &0eden and Finland8 and last year attempted unsuccessfully to o!tain permanent o!ser"er status 0ithin the 5rctic $ouncil ?it is currently allo0ed to o!ser"e8 !ut not on a permanent !asis@# The +' ,ommission for Limits of the ,ontinental #helf (+',L,#) has officially recognised the #ea of "khotsk encla e as part of the -ussia4s continental shelf* /he commission's ruling8 deli"ered on 14 March8 0ill grant .ussia e+clusi"e economic rights to an area of B28000 s<uare kilometres in the centre of the Okhotsk &ea8 located !et0een )apan and .ussia8 and recently descri!ed !y the go"ernment as a Kreal 5li Ba!a's ca"e'8 containing considera!le potential oil and gas reser"es as 0ell as rich fishing stocks# The largest Arctic paratrooper training e1ercise in -ussian military history was e1ecuted successfully on 15 March* /he e+ercise8 in"ol"ing ;B0 paratroopers and ;= planes8 took place on the recently reopened military !ase on the 4e0 &i!erian 3slands archipelago in the apte" &ea on .ussia's northeast coast# 5s 0ell as pro"iding training and e+pertise for further military operations8 .ussian military commanders claim that the e+ercise has helped prepare .ussia for undertaking search and rescue missions in its far north8 a capa!ility that 0ill !e essential if the 4orthern &hipping .oute is to !ecome more commercially "ia!le# "n the -adar ,anada will host the ne1t Arctic ,ouncil meeting in Dellowknife on !;&!A March* /he meeting is the first time the 5rctic states 0ill assem!le since the out!reak of the crisis in $rimea8 0hich is 0idely e+pected to cause tensions during the meeting# An Arctic /ialogue conference bringing together politicians% academics and business leaders will be held 1B&!? March in >odG% 'orway8 0ith the theme of K/he 5rctic in a glo!al perspecti"e N resources'#

Published with intelligence support from Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www*bradburys*co*uk

Analysts: $hris 5!!ott8 Matthe0 $ouillard8 *erek $rystal8 /ancrTde Feuillade8 aura :artmann8 iam McGay8 Patrick &e0ell8 *aniel /aylor and $laudia >agner#

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Open Briefing is the 0orld's first intelligence agency for ci"il society# >e produce actiona!le and predicti"e intelligence# >e tell you 0hat has happened and 0hat is likely to happen ne+t# Most importantly8 0e tell you 0hy# >e do this so that !etter informed citi2ens can more effecti"ely engage in peace and security de!ates and ci"il society organisations can make the right ad"ocacy choices# /ogether8 0e can then influence positi"e defence8 security and foreign policy decisions !y our go"ernments# Open Briefing is a !old and am!itious not(for(profit social enterprise# >e are a uni<ue international colla!oration of intelligence8 military8 la0 enforcement8 go"ernment and media professionals# www*openbriefing*org

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