L-R: Fernández, Macri, Lavagna. (Image credits below).

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Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Explainer: Presidential Tickets in Argentina's
2019 Election
By Luisa Horwitz
How is President Macri polling? And with whom is ex-President
Fernández de Kirchner sharing the electoral ticket? AS/COA Online
takes a look.

After much speculation over who would be on the official ballots, Argentina’s 2019 election
cycle is moving forward, with the deadlines for candidate and party alliance registration
closed and the candidate lists published on June 24. Overall, nine tickets are in the race.
AS/COA Online profiles the frontrunners and those who may have the greatest impact on
the outcome.

How the elections work

On August 11, Argentines vote in primaries known as
the Open, Simultaneous, and Obligatory Primaries
(PASO), where candidates for the different parties who
receive more than 1.5 percent of the vote will make it
on the ballot for the general election on October 27.

Argentina’s electoral system dictates that, to avoid a

runoff, candidates need to win either 45 percent of
votes or 40 percent with 10 points over the runner-up
in the first round. Otherwise, the top two candidates
will face each other in a second round on November 24. Presidents may run for consecutive
reelection once, then must sit out one four-year term before qualifying to run again.

The next president will be inaugurated on December 10, 2019.

Learn more in our Argentina election guide.

The top tickets

Mauricio Macri and Miguel Ángel Pichetto, Together for Change: President Mauricio
Macri announced in June that centrist Peronist Senator Miguel Ángel Pichetto would be his
running mate for the Let’s Change coalition, made up of the Civic Coalition, Radical Civic
Union (UCR), and Republican Proposal parties. Macri, a former Buenos Aires mayor elected
president in 2015, hopes to expand his government’s reach by adding a Peronist branch—a
strategic play following pressure, particularly from its UCR ally, to broaden its base. After
joining forces with Pichetto, who was president of the Senate’s majority Peronist Justicialist
Party caucus since 2002, the Let’s Change coalition rebranded as Together for Change.

Already, Macri got a boost from the decision: the ailing Argentine peso jumped on the
Pichetto announcement with a sense that the president had improved his reelection chances.
Argentina was eager for some good economic news, given the contraction of the economy by
2.5 percent and inflation that hit 48 percent in 2018. The OECD anticipates that inflation
rate will slow, but still reach 34 percent this year. Macri’s main supporters are business-
friendly voters, the agricultural sector, and those of the middle-lower class benefiting from
social and public works spending, reports Americas Quarterly.

Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Everyone’s Front: Even with
the Pichetto-related boost, Macri polls second with 33.5 percent according to a June poll by
Federico González y Asociados. Instead, the frontrunner spot goes to a ticket that includes an
ex-president. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as both a senator and first lady
prior to being president from 2007 to 2015, surprised many when in May she announced
that she would run for vice president alongside her former Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernández,
the Peronist coalition candidate.
Kirchner, previously rumored to be seeking the top seat again, has faced several corruption
charges, including accusations of bribery involving public works contracts during her late
husband Néstor Kirchner’s and her own presidencies. She also stands accused of money
laundering. As a senator, however, Kirchner has immunity, preventing detention but not
investigation or trial.

Some argue that the decision to select Fernández, a lawyer and long-time strategist for
Argentine presidents such as the Kirchners, as the candidate is a move of Kirchner’s design to
appease moderates and create a favorable alliance. Fernández’s less polarizing persona may
help him attract Peronist votes from those reluctant to vote Kirchner into office again. This
ticket polls ahead with 41.6 percent of intended votes for the primaries.

Roberto Lavagna and Juan Manuel Urtubey, Federal Consensus: In what is perhaps
the most divisive presidential election in the country’s history, former Economy Minister
Roberto Lavagna declared himself a “consensus” candidate. Juan Manuel Urtubey, governor
of the province of Salta, will be his running mate. Their ticket with the Federal Consensus
party is allied with non-Kirchnerist Peronists.

Lavagna oversaw the rebuilding of the Argentine economy after the 2001 default during the
government transition between Presidents Eduardo Duhalde and Néstor Kirchner.
Along with Urtubey, who for some time suggested he might run for president himself, they
propose a simultaneous overhaul of subsidies and taxes, to renew “the central marriage of the
economy—that of consumption and investment.” Their ticket polls third for the primaries at
8.8 percent.

Who else is on the ballot?

Six other candidates are in the running and, while it’s doubtful any could make it to a runoff,
some of them are garnering enough support to have an impact on the race.

On the right, economist José Luis Espert and journalist Luis Rosales are running for
president and vice president, respectively, on the Awakening Front ticket and are polling in
fourth place at 6.5 percent of votes for the primaries. Espert, a well-known political
commentator, is seeking to appeal to those disappointed with Macri’s government, and in
particular has support from young voters. Espert almost didn’t make it on the primary ballot
at all, given that Pichetto poached his party’s leader Alberto Assef into the Together for
Change coalition. Without an official party stamp, Espert was left scrambling at the eleventh
hour to join the Unite party and become the Awakening Front coalition’s candidate.

In sixth place is Juan José Gómez Centurión, a former military man who headed the
Customs Administration Office, with running mate Cynthia Hotton, an evangelical and
former deputy from 2007 to 2011. These candidates for the conservative Nos Front party
poll at 2.1 percent for the primaries.

On the left, presidential candidate Nicolás del Caño and vice-presidential candidate
Romina del Plá represent a coalition of leftist and workers’ parties known as the Worker’s
Left Front–Unity. The second leftist pairing involves candidates Manuela Castañeira and
Eduardo Mulhall on behalf of the New Movement to Socialism party. Castañeira, who
polls with minimal support, is the first woman candidate for her party, the sole female
presidential candidate, and—at 34—the youngest person running for president. Should these
candidates get eliminated in one of the upcoming election rounds, their backers would likely
support Fernández and Kirchner.

Also in the running are former Governor of Corrientes José Antonio ‘Pocho’ Romero
Feris with running-mate Guillermo Sueldo for the National Autonomist Party, and
Alejandro Biondini with Enrique Venturino as his vice-presidential candidate for the
Patriotic Front.

What the polls say

June polls show the Fernández-Kirchner ticket in the lead ahead of the PASO round, though
the percentage difference with the Macri ticket does not guarantee a first-round victory. In
the case of a runoff, a June Synopsis poll puts Macri and Fernández within a half a percentage
point of each other.

A Look at Polls Ahead of

Argentina's PASO
With an eye to the August 11 primary elections, June 2019 polls by two different firms show
Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the lead, with President Mauricio
Macri and Miguel Ángel Pichetto in second.
 Note: The Federico González y Asociados poll lists blank votes at 2.8%—not included in the above chart.

Sources: Federico González y Asociados: The June 23–25 poll of 1,600 people has a margin of error of ± 2.5%
and was published on June 25. Synopsis : The June 23–24 poll of 2,261 people has a margin of error of ± 2.1%
and was published June 28.

Copyright AS/COA Online.

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Images via candidates' social media; Macri via Roey Yohai Studios.

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