Weekly Report #5

Prepared by: Dennys Eduardo Mancheno C.

Date March 4th 2021
Political and electoral context
The electoral context this week has continued to include the controversy generated
from the elections between the CNE and Pachakutik. Perez, Pachakutik's presidential
candidate, went to the CNE to deliver 27,767 presidential acts for review for alleged
inconsistencies. However, the CNE partially accepted Pachakutik's request, reviewing
31 presidential acts, which gave Pérez 602 more votes. This caused the indigenous
movement to announce new demonstrations at the national level.
Regarding the national demonstrations, it should be noted that these have not had the
strength that was expected taking into account the protests of October 2019. This has
occurred due to two factors. In the first place, in 2019 the indigenous movement
showed itself as a unit, in the post-electoral protests the political differences already
present before electing candidates were noted, this affected so that a massive
mobilization could not be carried out. Second, the progressive delay that the CNE has
taken in delivering the results and processing the orders has led to the reason for the
mobilization losing strength.
Regarding the political context, two main facts can be highlighted, the first being more
relevant. In the first place, the government sent for discussion and approval in the
assembly the dollar protection law, which, as its name suggests, seeks to protect the
dollar and provide legal stability at the monetary level. However, this law was returned
to the executive for considering that it violates constitutional norms. Mauricio Pozo,
Minister of Economy, responded that it would seem that in the assembly there are
people who have no interest in safeguarding the dollar, but that the government will
make all the necessary changes until it is approved, being the last relevant law
promoted by the government. It should be noted that this law is one of the conditions
of the negotiations with the IMF to give loans in the middle of the pandemic to
Ecuador. Secondly, due to the scandals due to the mismanagement of the vaccination
plan, the Minister of Health, Juan Carlos Zevallos, presented his resignation, his
position was filled by Rodolfo Farfán.
The role of CNE
After presenting official results on February 27, the CNE received and processed
Pachakutik's objections to the electoral results. Although the eyes were focused on the
claims of the presidential acts, there were also claims for irregularities in the election
of assembly members, these were not taken into account because they did not present
the normative bases for recount. Regarding the presidential minutes, 27,767 minutes
were presented, however, the CNE only process 31, which was taken as a joke by
Pachakutik as well as by public opinion. This led the indigenous movement to call for
national mobilizations, which have not been relevant at all.
Regarding the support for the recount, the councilors Atamaint and Verdesoto came
out in defense of the electoral process and the counting of only 31 minutes. The
president of the CNE, Diana Atamaint, mentioned that the electoral process is
supported by a computer system endorsed by international observers, so it is not
possible to speculate on possible electoral fraud. As for the counselor Verdesoto, he
mentioned that the minutes that were verified did not comply with the signatures of
voters or those in charge of the table, at the same time, he pointed out that the only
place fraud could be established is in the voting receiving boards, where by error or by
will of the people who handle the data entry could benefit a candidate.
Electoral observation mission findings and participation
This week the performance of the electoral observation missions has been moderate.
The highest mentions have been by the councilors to endorse the electoral results and
the electoral process based on the reports presented by the observation missions. The
OAS electoral observation mission has remained expectant of the recount process, as
well as being an intermediary between Pachakutik and the CNE.
Civil society and the political participation of women, gender minorities, ethnic
minorities and indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, and other marginalized
communities within Ecuador and in international human rights frameworks
Regarding minorities, the relevance is still the indigenous movement, but LGBTI and
feminist groups have been gaining strength. The indigenous movement continues to
support the Pachakutik candidate, however they have not been able to establish
relevant mobilizations that could be of weight to bend the will of the CNE. This is
mainly due to the lack of unity of the movement in which the interests of its leaders
prevail.
As for the LGBTI and feminist groups, they have gained preponderance in view of a
second electoral round. Both Arauz and Lasso have expressed their intention to include
agendas for both groups in their work plan, for which the candidates have met with
organizations to strengthen ties and seek support. It should be noted that both
candidates did not show interest in supporting these movements in the first round,
therefore, it could only be a campaign strategy.
Ecuadorian political parties, candidates and electoral Results
The dispute with the CNE continues to establish Pachakutik as the most relevant party
at the moment. After having submitted the requests for the revision of the acts to the
CNE and only 31 minutes having been reviewed, Pérez, like the presidential candidate
of Pachakutik, decided to raise his request before the TCE, however, this could be
delayed, at the same time that it can also be rejected. In this sense, Yaku Pérez feels
more like a loser than a winner and with little chance of entering to a second round. As
for Pérez's speech, it has changed with respect to a time after the results were given.
The guilty of electoral fraud are no longer the right-wing parties, but the CNE led by
the councilors.
As for the parties and candidates that are in the second round, they have begun to
register movements in a similar way. As for Lasso, CREO representative, the main
novelty that is presented is the hiring of the team that managed the Hervas campaign,
this in order to improve its presence on social networks and capture the Hervas vote.
At the same time, he has begun to engage in conversations with LGBTI and feminist
groups seeking the support of these sectors, something that he had not done before.
For his part, Arauz has begun to manifest himself in a different way than in the first
round. Like Lasso, Arauz has increased his presence on social networks, at the same
time, he has spoken with LGBTI groups. However, the most innovative thing about
Arauz is to seek to get away from Correa's image, in this way admitting mistakes in this
government, opening the doors to talk with political parties and international
organizations. It should be waited to determine if this estrangement is true or is just a
political strategy.
Campaigns
The campaigns have not officially started, they will officially start on March 16.
However, the CNE does not have regulations to control what can be produced through
social networks, therefore, the campaigns have been active, especially of the
candidates who have been proclaimed to be in the second round, Arauz and Lasso.
Lasso hired Hervas 'campaign team, this in order to improve his presence on social
networks and win Hervas' vote, as well as the young vote, which has changed his
image in the second round. The main platforms that he has used these days are Tik Tok
and Facebook. Regarding the speech, Lasso has talked about improving his proposals
around areas of social interest such as the inclusion of LGBTI groups, women, stating
that the first round was to talk about economic issues and the second round to cover
social issues.
As for Arauz, he has also had a strong presence on social networks, but he has also
been more open to interviews in traditional media. In this sense, like Lasso, his
presence on Tik Tok and Facebook has been strong, at the same time, he has given
interviews for media such as Teleamazonas, Ecuavisa, which are traditional and
opponents of the Correa government. The most important thing that Arauz has shown
these days is to get away from Correa's image, stating that he is the candidate and not
a puppet as public opinion sees him, this he does to win a part of the vote that is
opposed to the government of Correa but they want to be represented by a left-wing
party. Similarly, he has shown openness to dialogue with political parties and
international organizations, especially the IMF, which is a body criticized by Correa.