Weekly Report #2

Prepared by: Dennys Eduardo Mancheno C.

Date: February 10th 2021
Context

 Electoral Day
On Sunday, February 7, 2021, elections were held to elect the president, assembly
members and representatives of the Andean Parliament. For president there were 16
candidates from 17 parties (an alliance between the PSC and CREO). The assembly
members to be elected were 137 distributed among 15 nationals, 116 provincials and 6
from abroad, for which there were 2,146 candidates. For representatives of the
Andean Parliament, 5 places were disputed among 15 candidates. The number of
qualified voters was 13,099,150 in 39,917 voting centers, while 40,000 people
registered abroad to vote in 64 voting centers.
As for the day of the election, it was held on February 7 for the majority of
Ecuadorians. On February 5, voters with disabilities began voting because of the vote
at home program. The inmates without an enforceable sentence voted on February 6
in the different jails of the country. The February 7 elections were installed starting at 7
AM with 48.93% of the voting centers ready, as of 9:30 all the voting centers were
active. The election was held until 5 PM, when the voting centers were closed, but due
to the large influx of voters and the distancing due to biosecurity measures, people
who were in line were attended to, in many cases a certificate of attendance was
issued that avoids the payment of the fine.
Regarding the expected results for the elections, mention should be made of the
samples taken by the pollsters CEDATOS and Clima Social. By February 4, both pollsters
showed that Arauz could win in a single round by obtaining at least 40% of the vote
and a difference of 10 points from the second. Lasso appeared as second with
approximately 25% and Pérez third with approximately 16%. It is important to highlight
that the indecision until February 4 was 40%.
The role of CNE
It should be noted that the elections proceeded normally with minor inconveniences.
Regarding other elections, these were held in an orderly manner. It can be noted that
by 7AM that the elections began, not all the polling stations were installed. Similarly,
subjects with stolen and adulterated ballots were found in Portoviejo. It should be
noted that unlike the elections of 2017 and 2019, the computer system to report
results to the public worked correctly.
Mention should be made of the role of the CNE in reporting the results of the quick
count. At approximately 9 p.m. on the day of the election, the CNE came out to give
the results of 91% of the quick count sampling, where Arauz obtained 31.50%, Perez
20.04% and Lasso 19.97%. Five minutes later, the counselor Pita, in the media, rectified
the results of the quick count, placing Lasso in second position with 20.05% and Perez
third with 19.85%. This generated mistrust of political organizations and the
population.
Obser Electoral observation mission findings
Observers have had little participation so far. The number of national observers is
2540, while the international observers are 232. The main discomfort of the
international observers has been with respect to not being able to take photos of the
original acts. As for the OAS, it has urged the CNE to mediate the uncertainty
generated regarding the results of the candidate that occupies the second place.
Similarly, OAS observers have met with Lasso and Pérez in an attempt to calm the
situation.
Civil society and the political participation of women, gender minorities, ethnic
minorities and indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, and other marginalized
communities within Ecuador and in international human rights frameworks
Regarding the participation of women to occupy a seat in the assembly, nothing can be
advanced until we have the electoral results and know how many women will take part
of the assembly. As for the indigenous sector, its growth with respect to other
elections should be highlighted. The historical historical participation of Pachakutik in
presidential elections has been approximately 8%. However, in the current election,
Yaku Pérez is obtaining 20.02%, which even, not entering the second round, is already
a historical result. Similarly, Pachakutik reaches 27 seats in the assembly, which makes
it the second political force in the country. Never in history the indigenous party has
had so much representation in the legislature.
Ecuadorian political parties, candidates and electoral Results
Regarding the presidential elections, 5 points must be understood as a result of the
elections. First, Arauz entered to the second round without problems as was expected.
This candidacy signifies the vindication of the correism and the strength of Correa's
image, on whom Arauz’s campaign has been based. Regarding the votes of the
candidates that could enter the second round and that will be dealt with below, it
should be mentioned that the percentages of the votes have been varying.
Secondly, there is the vote in favor of Guillermo Lasso that keeps him fighting for the
second place in search of a second round. Several analysts agree on Lasso's limited
ability to reach the emotional aspect of the voter. In addition to this, Lasso considered
having a 28% base election, which is the first round vote of 2017. Lasso's vote through
February 9 was 19.6% putting him in third place. This vote has been growing until
reaching 19.64% on February 10, placing him in second place, this due to the scrutiny
of the voting records on the coast that favor Lasso more than Yaku Pérez. However,
this is a smaller vote than expected, and it can be explained from the political absence
this 4 last years, as well as, the appearance of new figures with political campaign
strategies with better results and more in line with the current context. In other words,
Lasso did not have the ability to adapt to new contexts and scenarios.
Third, the explanation of the growth of Pachakutik and the candidacy of Yaku Pérez. It
should be noted that, in the best of cases, Pachakutik obtained 8% in a presidential
election. In the case of Perez's vote, it has also been changing but for less. Until
February 9, he was at 19.85%, which placed him in second place. Thanks to the vote
counting in Guayas, as of February 10, he has 19.62% that places him in third place.
However, this is still a historic vote for Pachakutik and they are still waiting to enter a
second round. As a result of the drop in Pérez's voting percentages, the indigenous
movement officially expressed its disagreement with the elections and has called for
the indigenous sector to mobilize to Quito and Guayaquil.
Yaku Pérez's vote can be explained from 3 factors. The context is a factor due to the
indigenous claim after the protests of October 2019. The figure of Pérez is another
factor of incidence due to his figure as a non-radical indigenousist who has known how
to consolidate consensus with leftist groups than other leaders of the indigenous
movement had not been able to achieve. Third, a campaign that combined well the
traditional (focusing on the central and east highlands) with the management of social
networks that was able to capture the indigenous and youth vote, added to a work
plan that convinced this population. These three aspects have given Pérez the
possibility of being in the second round, giving way to mobilize the indigenous sector in
favor of safeguarding the results they believe they have.
Fourth, the participation of Hervas should be mentioned. Having a campaign with the
democratic left that began without much expectation, Hervas managed to obtain
15.91%. The success of Hervas' campaign is based on his campaign on social networks,
his figure grew according to his image as a non-political businessman, with an
environmentalist discourse. Hervas managed to capture votes from the undecided,
presenting himself as a different option, closer to the emotional aspect of young
people and with a campaign according to the current context.
It is important to understand where the votes of Hervas and Pérez come from. As of
February 6, based on survey data, indecision was believed to be around 40% of the
vote. It could be considered that the majority of these undecided voters favored
Hervas and Pérez. The support for these candidates represents the rejection of
Correa's figure and his past government, but also the rejection of the right-wing party
represented by Lasso. In this way, voters are represented in a left-wing party far from
correismo. Thus, the support for Hervas and Pérez and the representation obtained in
the assembly by the left-wing parties (Pachakutik and the democratic left) can be
explained from the rejection of Correa and the non-representation of the right-wing
parties.
Finally, it is worth highlighting the participation of the rest of the candidates and
understanding their low vote. Eight candidates did not exceed 1% of the election, while
three did not exceed 2% of the vote and only Freile managed to have 2.16%. These
candidates and political organizations manage their candidacies without real
expectations of obtaining the presidency, but these candidates seek to promote the
elections to the assembly in order to be able to negotiate and their movement or
political party gains greater notoriety.
Leaving aside the presidential candidacies, two factors must be highlighted on election
day. First, pollsters are unreliable with their pre-election samples as in the exit count,
none were able to predict current events. Second, the communicational failure of the
CNE in communicating the quick count data, causing political organizations and the
population to distrust the results.
Finally, regarding the results of the national assembly, it should be noted that this is
going to be a divided assembly that will have to seek alliances or pacts to legislate.
Until the current scrutiny, the left occupies a fundamental sector in the assembly with
43 seats for UNES, 27 for Pachakutik, 18 for the Democratic Left. However, between
the left there are no established pacts, in fact, both Pachakutik and the ID have shown
themselves against Correa. These results show a rebirth of the three parties
mentioned. As for the right, between CREO and the PSC there are 29 assembly
members, which means a crisis of the Ecuadorian right, which in the case of the PSC
has lost strength in its main bastions, Guayas and Los Ríos, while CREO loses strength
to Nacional level. The remaining seats are held by center-left parties. As mentioned
previously, it is an assembly without an absolute majority that will have to agree to
legislative.
Traditional and social media frameworks related to electoral campaigns
Electoral campaigns were allowed until February 4. The closing of the CREO campaign
was held in the city of Quito and Guayaquil where Guillermo Lasso was together with
the main leaders of the PSC. Arauz and UNES ended their campaign in Quito. Similarly,
Pérez and Pachakutik did it in the city of Quito. As of February 5, electoral silence was
called and a dry law was entered.
Despite the fact that there was a ban on campaigning from February 5, these
continued. It was normal to see electoral propaganda of Lasso, Pérez and Arauz on
social networks, in the same way, Hervas connected live through Instagram to talk with
people. This happens because there is no electoral regulation that controls the
campaign on social networks.
Civic and voter education practices in Ecuador, including active campaigns
Regarding biosecurity measures due to the COVID 19 pandemic, the CNE made several
recommendations. For voting station members, the CNE provided 98.61% of bisecurity
kits that included a visor, mask, alcohol, and gel. Likewise, it was made easier for all
members of voting tables and members of the armed forces to undergo rapid tests for
free in the country's public hospitals. The CNE urged that the population go to the
polling stations according to the last digit of the identity card, even digits from 7AM to
12PM and odd digits from 12PM to 5PM, however, the population ignored this
recommendation.
Until the last few days, the CNE, political organizations and the population itself made
calls for them to vote with consent. The CNE campaigned to recommend biosafety
means in the elections and the form of election. The political parties and the
population expressed themselves through social networks in search of calling people
to vote due to the speculation of a high percentage of absenteeism.