.

Theoretic Elements
of Heliocentric Electromagnetic
Meteorology

, 2006.

 :
-

Theoretic Elements
of Heliocentric Electromagnetic Meteorology

. . .

.
:



CIP
,
523 . 98 6 : 551 . 521
, .

= Theoretic Elements of Heliocentric
Electromagnetic Meteorology / . , 2006.
( : ) 240 . : . ; 24 ( : )
200. . 15 17 : / ,
., . - : . (239
-240) SUMMARY

ISBN 86 - 904985 2 - 4
)
COBIS . SR ID 130881548

2006
2006All
AllRights
RightsReserved
Reserved
No
part
of
this
book
be reproduced,
reproduced, stored
stored ininretrieval
retrievalsystem,
system,
No part of this book may
may be
recording
or
atherwise,
without
written
permission
from
Milan
recording or atherwise, without written permission of
Stevanevi.
Milan Stevanevi.

 :
76
SUMMARY .....

9
..........................................................................................
7
15
...........................................................................................
12

1................................................................................................19
1.1. ........................ 2324
27
2. ...... 25
2.1. ............................................................3129
2.2. ...........3130
2.3. ................................. 35
2.4 ............ 38
33
40
2.5. .......................
2.6. ......................... 42
3. ........4751
51
3.1. 1 ............
55
4. .........5559
5. ................5963
59
5. 1. .........
63
60
5. 2. ....... 64
62
5. 3. ......66
64
5. 4. .....68
5. 5. ...............6569

6. ..... 67
71
6.1. ......... 73
69
6.2. ......... 7369
6.3. .......... 7773
6.4. .7874
6.5. .... 7975
6.6. .......... 80
76
6.7.
......... 81
77
6.8. .
..... 81
77
6.9.
....... 82
78
7.
.. 79
83
7.1. ....... 80
7.2. ........ 81
7.3. ........ 83
7.4. .............. 88
.
7.5. ...... .89
7.6. ................................................ . 92
7.7. ... 93
7.8. ...... .95
8. Ka .... 99
8.1. .... 102
100
8.2. ........... 105
103
8.3. ..... 106
104
8.4. ....108
106
8.5. ...................................................... 108
106
8.6. ... 110
108
8.7. .....111
109
8.8. ..................... 112
110
8.9. ................ 113
111
8.10. ... 115
113
8.11. 115
113
8.12. ...... 117
115
8.13. .... 117
8.14. ............ 1 119
9.15. ..... 123
121

9. ........123
9.1. .......... 125
9.2. ........... 126
9.3. .......................... 129
9.1. ............. 131
9.2. ..... 132
9.3. ............. 134
9.4. ....... 139
9.5. ...... 141
9.6. ....... 141
10. .....
144
10.1.
..............................................................144
10.1. ..................................................................
145
10.2. .........
146
10.3. .........
147
10.4. ............
148
10.5. ...........
150
10.6. .............
151
10.7. ...............
152
10.8. .............
155
10.9. ...............
158
10.10. ................
160
10.11. ...........
162
10.12. ...........
164
11. ........
11.1. ............
166
11.2. ............
170
12. ..........
171
12.1 ................
12.2. ....................
173
12.3. .............
174
12.4. ................
176
12.5. ..................
178
12.6. ...............
180
12.7. ...............
186
12.8. ..............
187
12.9. ...............
188
12.10. ..................
195

13.
...........................197
13.1. .......198
13.2. ... 206
13.3.
...............................................................
210
13.4. ...............................................................
211
13.5. ............................... 212
13.6. .........213
13.7.
...........................................219
13.8. .................................................
221
13.9. ....................................................
224
13.10. ..............................................................
226
13.11. .............. 229
13.12. 231
13.13. ...................... 233
14. .237
15. .............................................................................239

Summary
Theoretic Elements of Heliocentric Electromagnetic
Meteorology represents a new scientific approach in the weather
science research. The results of electromagnetic research which had
been carried out from 1975 to 2006 in the field of meteorology were
collected in it. The aim of this research was the creation of new
scientific theoretic elements that would enable to describe the
meteorological phenomena by using mathematical relations. During
the research a current geocentric approach is being abandoned, where
it is claimed, simply said, that most of the meteorological phenomena
begin and end in the Earths atmosphere. The electromagnetic
meteorological researches are based on the heliocentric approach and
weather on Earth is observed as a part of the weather that reigns in
interplanetary space of the Solar system. A new science on the weather
was based on the action of natural macroscopic immaterial forces.
New weather parameters have been introduced such as
magnetic and electric fields, natural corpuscular electric power, etc. A
new hypothesis about the origin of meteorological phenomena has
been written showing that meteorology is based on some other
scientific principles. The results of heliocentric weather research have
shown that laws which rule in interplanetary space are also in effect in
the atmosphere of the Earth.
Move to the heliocentric weather research required the
introduction of new terms such as meteorological month,
meteorological year and meteorological cycle. By making a
meteorological calendar, time realization of repeating the
electromagnetic energies that come to us from the Sun have been
enabled.
The hypothesis about making the nucleus of a rain drop
through electronic valence, the hypothesis about air mass motions and
the hypothesis on the atmospheric pressure, described by mathematical
relations, deny the scientific bases of the current classical
meteorology.
Instead of the current descriptive geocentric meteorology, a
new heliocentric meteorology was made based on the mathematical
approach which enables the calculation of meteorological weather
parameters and creation of the long-term weather forecast.
This book gives mathematical base and reveals new domains
for new researches in the field of meteorology.

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6-Jul

20

26-Jan

22-Feb

21-Mar

17-Apr

14-May

10-Jun

7-Jul

21

27-Jan

23-Feb

22-Mar

18-Apr

15-May

11-Jun

8-Jul

22

28-Jan

24-Feb

23-Mar

19-Apr

16-May

12-Jun

9-Jul

23

29-Jan

25-Feb

24-Mar

20-Apr

17-May

13-Jun

10-Jul

24

30-Jan

26-Feb

25-Mar

21-Apr

18-May

14-Jun

11-Jul

25

31-Jan

27-Feb

26-Mar

22-Apr

19-May

15-Jun

12-Jul

26

1-Feb

28-Feb

27-Mar

23-Apr

20-May

16-Jun

13-Jul

27

2-Feb

1-Mar

28-Mar

24-Apr

21-May

17-Jun

14-Jul

46

2007.
2006. g

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

1.

15-Jul

11-Aug

7-Sep

4-Oct

31-Oct

27-Nov

24-Dec

16-Jul

12-Aug

8-Sep

5-Oct

1-Nov

28-Nov

25-Dec

17-Jul

13-Aug

9-Sep

6-Oct

2-Nov

29-Nov

26-Dec

18-Jul

14-Aug

10-Sep

7-Oct

3-Nov

30-Nov

27-Dec

19-Jul

15-Aug

11-Sep

8-Oct

4-Nov

1-Dec

28-Dec

20-Jul

16-Aug

12-Sep

9-Oct

5-Nov

2-Dec

29-Dec

21-Jul

17-Aug

13-Sep

10-Oct

6-Nov

3-Dec

30-Dec

22-Jul

18-Aug

14-Sep

11-Oct

7-Nov

4-Dec

31-Dec

23-Jul

19-Aug

15-Sep

12-Oct

8-Nov

5-Dec

1-Jan-2008

10

24-Jul

20-Aug

16-Sep

13-Oct

9-Nov

6-Dec

2-Jan

11

25-Jul

21-Aug

17-Sep

14-Oct

10-Nov

7-Dec

3-Jan

12

26-Jul

22-Aug

18-Sep

15-Oct

11-Nov

8-Dec

4-Jan

13

27-Jul

23-Aug

19-Sep

16-Oct

12-Nov

9-Dec

5-Jan

14

28-Jul

24-Aug

20-Sep

17-Oct

13-Nov

10-Dec

6-Jan

15

29-Jul

25-Aug

21-Sep

18-Oct

14-Nov

11-Dec

7-Jan

16

30-Jul

26-Aug

22-Sep

19-Oct

15-Nov

12-Dec

8-Jan

17

31-Jul

27-Aug

23-Sep

20-Oct

16-Nov

13-Dec

9-Jan

18

1-Aug

28-Aug

24-Sep

21-Oct

17-Nov

14-Dec

10-Jan

19

2-Aug

29-Aug

25-Sep

22-Oct

18-Nov

15-Dec

11-Jan

20

3-Aug

30-Aug

26-Sep

23-Oct

19-Nov

16-Dec

12-Jan

21

4-Aug

31-Aug

27-Sep

24-Oct

20-Nov

17-Dec

13-Jan

22

5-Aug

1-Sep

28-Sep

25-Oct

21-Nov

18-Dec

14-Jan

23

6-Aug

2-Sep

29-Sep

26-Oct

22-Nov

19-Dec

15-Jan

24

7-Aug

3-Sep

30-Sep

27-Oct

23-Nov

20-Dec

16-Jan

25

8-Aug

4-Sep

1-Oct

28-Oct

24-Nov

21-Dec

17-Jan

26

9-Aug

5-Sep

2-Oct

29-Oct

25-Nov

22-Dec

18-Jan

27

10-Aug

6-Sep

3-Oct

30-Oct

26-Nov

23-Dec

19-Jan

25. 2007. .
,

, ,
.

47

3.

- . ,
-
.



.

. ,
,
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.


.

, ,
.

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50 1000
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48

,

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1
. 1
.

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200

12

100

55
m
1 x 10e+11

2 x 10 e +11

3 x 10 e +11

3.1.

, ,

.

.
, ,
.

49

.

, .

110
110 .......

1
55 .......

55

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3.2.
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55
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50

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.

110 220
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3.3.

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51

4.1 1


.

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:
?


v.

1

3. 4.

m dx / dt = 0 ; m dz / dt = 0 ; m dy / dt = - e K.......( 4. 1. )


y 1
.
h = - ( e K / m v ) x.................. ( 4. 2. )

52

(4.2.)
1 .
.

.

, , ,
. ,
, .
, 1
150
.


.
.

3.5

N x 10e^16 /m

100 300 .(3.5.)

.

53

3.6.

N x 10e^16 /m

, ,
.
,
.
(3.6.)
,
,
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900 .
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, ,
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.

54

E1
.


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110
80
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11

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56

1 k q1 qk,
,


dWk = d Ak..............................................................( 5. 1. )

n
W = k qk................................................... ( 5. 2. )
k=1

.
,

,

,
dW .
dW = D dV.................................................... ( 5. 3. )


W=

D dV...................................................... ( 5. 4.)

W = D.............................................................. ( 5. 5. )

- D -
.


po .


.

57

1
.
.


, ,
.
1

-q,
+q. (5.1.)
,

F.

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1
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o
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5.1
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d ,

.
dW.

F
d .
dW = Fg d .................................................................... ( 5. 6. )

58

F = - dW / d .................................................................. ( 5. 7. )
( 5.7 ) .


.

.
,
.
,
,
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.

p = KD.....................................................................( 5. 8. )

(5,8,)


.

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59

5 .


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60

5. 2.

.
99% , ,
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K D

.

W = D K dV.............................................. ( 6.1.1. )
V


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dV = / dV + dA/dt J dV + grad J dV..... ( 6. 2.1.)

.
.
,
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,
.
div ( J ) = grad J + div J ................. ( 6. 2. 2. )

div J = - d/dt........................................... ( 6. 2. 3. )
- -
,

61

grad J = div ( J ) + d/dt.. (6. 2. 4. )

( 6. 2.1.)

grad J dV = div ( J ) dV + d/dt dV.. ( 6. 2. 5. )

(6.2.5.)

.
,
J
,
.

grad J dV = d/dt dV..................................... ( 6. 2. 6. )

(6.2.6)
.
, ,

.


.

62

5. 3. .

,

.

.

.

.

,

.

.
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Vt,

t = / Vt ... (6. 3. 1.)
, ,
,

dv / dt = K e / m .... ( 6. 3. 2.)
v1
v2 ,

v2 = v1 + K e / m .......................................................( 6. 3. 3. )

, .

v2 = K e / m t ....................................................... ( 6. 3. 4. )

63

t
v1 = 0 v2
v,

v = v2 / 2 = e t / 2 m K........................................ ( 6. 3. 5.)

.
,
, .
,
, ,
.

. N ,
.
J = N e v = N e / 2m

/ Vt

K ......................... ( 6. 3. 6.)

J = .................................................................... ( 6. 3. 7.)
(6.3.7.) ,
, ..

.

,
.
.
dt e
v dt ...................................................................... (6. 3. 8.)
- v .

64

dV = dl dS, je
N e v dt ................................................................. ( 6. 3. 9. )

,
.

dV,
,
dP = N e v K dV .................................................. ( 6. 3. 10.)
5. 4.

.
,
.
,
.
V,
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W = ( K D + H B ) dV..............................( 6. 4. 1 )

J Ke dV = dW/dt + J/ dV + ( K x H ) dS..(6.4.2 )
v

. e

.
.
, ,
, .

65

.


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= K x H............................................................... ( 6. 4. 3. )
(6.4.3.)
.
.


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5. 5.

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.
1%
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66

.
S

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J dS.................................................................

( 6. 3.

1.)
s

= N e v........................................................................( 6. 3.2. )
- N
, -
- v .

(6.3.2 ) . ,
.
= N e
,

= v.........................................................................( 6. 3. 3. )

,

.
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.

. 1%
,
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67

6.

:


.


.

.

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.
Pa,

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.
Pa = Pv + Psv .................................................................( 7.
1.)
,

(5.8.)
p = KD........................................................................( 7. 2. )
K D
.

.

68

.

,
.

Pa = Pv + P sv - Pel......................................................( 7. 3.)
- Pa , - Pv
, - P sv
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( 7.3.)
:

, ,
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69

6.1.


,
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.

(7.3.)
,

.


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,
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6.2.


.

Pa = Pv - Pel ............................................................... ( 7. 4. )

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, ,
, .

70

.... n, q...... qn ,

.
dq ,

dA = dq ........................................................................... ( 7. 6. )
,


dWk = dAk .............................................................. (7. 7. )


n
A = q ..................................................................... ( 7. 8. )
k=1

,


n
W = q
............... ( 7. 9. )
k=1

,


.


, .
,
,

d W = KD dV ............................................... ( 7. 10. )

71

W = KD dV....................................................

( 7. 11. )

!
p = KD

Fg

6.1.
.


. (6.1.)

72

(7.11.)
,
,
.

,
,
.



1.
,

.

.


.

,
.

.


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73

6.3.


.



Pa = Pv + P sv ...........................................................( 7. 12. )
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, - P sv
.
Pv
,

.

.


,
,
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74

6.4.


:
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75

6. 5.

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1
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h, ,
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N x 10e^16 /m

6.2. 16. 2006.

.

76

(6.2.)
260
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,
.
.


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6. 6.



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22
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77

6. 7.


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6.3

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78

6. 9.

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p = KD
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6.4.

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.
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79

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80

7.1.

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.

81

,
.
7.2.

. .
,
.
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.
,

: Fe 16 + , Mg 10 + , C6+ Si 12+.

.

22. 2001 ( CELIAS
Image Gallery )

7.1.


. (7.1.)

82

,
,
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, ,
.


.


.

7.2.

83

7.3.


.

.

.
20. 2005. , 07,04 (UTC)

10720, 7.1. 20. 2005.
10720
.

7.3.

- - .

84

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100 MeV.
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7.5.

85

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.
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86

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87

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.

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88

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90

.

.
,
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= / dV...................................................................( 8.1.)
-
.

dV
n
p = q Rk......................................................................( 8.2.)
k=1
- q
, , Rk
,
.


n

q Rk
k=1

= -------------dV

............................................................( 8.3.)

,
.

,
.

91

,
. (7.11.)

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++ + + +
___
+++
___

+++
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

7.11.

,
.

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Kr = Ko K ...................................................................( 8.4.)

.
,
,

, , .
,

.

92

7.6.

,
S, + Q
- Q.
F = -dW / dx = - Q / S .............................................( 8.5.)


p = KD ....................................................................( 8.6.)
( 8.6.)
,
D.

v

div K = + v / o ......................................................( 8.7.)
div K = + div

div ( K + ) =

D = K + .................................................................( 8.8.)

D K.

. ,
D
, ,
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D
,
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93

D

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D.
7.7.

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94

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.

7.12.

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95

7.8.

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.

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100
40,6 (18,016
),
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6 J/mol.
25. 2005. 13, 45 ,
(UTC) ,
3 , -71.21 ,

.

,
70 , ,

.


.
.

96

1,25 x 10 e +06 (K)

3 x 10 e +05 (K)

5 x 10 e +04 (K)

7.13.
.

10 100 .

.
,
.

.
2002.
4 .

97

:
1.

2.
3.
4.

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;


;


;

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98

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100

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102

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103

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100 100
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104

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,

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105

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.
,
.

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, 18.
2005. ,
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18. 2005. .
18 2005.

8.5.

106

Troms Geophysical Observatory.

18. 2005.

8.6.
8.4.

: , .
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8.5.

.
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107

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300 380 . ,

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108

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8.8.

109

.
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e .

.
8.7.


, ,
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.

.
Proton Intensity [ particles / (m2 s sr MeV) ]

8.9.

110

e
.
,
.
,
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,
.
8.8.

89
12 .


.


. .

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.
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111

8.9.


.

8.10.


.

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112

,

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113

8.10.

.
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,
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20 .

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.

.
8.11.




.
.

h
. h,

+q,
-q.

114

h
,
, ,
, .

,

F.

x
h
dx
Fg

9.11.
,
, a
F = - dW / dx.....................................................................( 9.2.
)

, .
.

115

, (5.8.)

.
p = KD ........................................................................( 9.3. )
- K D
.
8.12.
, m
q
F.
F = q K............................................................................( 9. 4. )


.
.
m dx / dt = qKx ; m dy / dt = qKy; m dz / dt = qKz
,
dh,
.
d mv / 2 = q K d h.......................................................( 9. 5. )

h 1 h 2
h2

mv h 2 - mv h 1

=q

K dh ........................( 9. 6. )

h1

h 1 h 2.
,
.

116

.
h 2
v = 2q/m [ h 1 - h 2 ].....................................( 9. 7 )
( 9.7 )
h 2

,
. ,
.

k
v = 2q/m [ h 1 - h 2 ] k.................................. ( 9.8 )
( 9.8. )

,
,
.
(9.8.) :

,

117

8.13.

,
.
,
.


.

8.12.


,
.

.

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.

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.
,
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.

118

:
- k ;
- ;
-
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,
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. (8.12.)


.
,

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.

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119

8.14.


.

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8.13.
,
,
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.

.

120

.
, .


,
.

60 ,
220 .


.

.
.


.


.
.


.
.

,
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.

121

8.15.

,
, , .


.

p = KD

8.14.
.

.

.

.

,
.

122

,
,
. ,
, ,
,
.


.

, ,
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.

50
.


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,

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.


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,

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123

9.

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.


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27 ,
12 , 100 ,
,

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12
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100 , ,
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124

.
.

50 .

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2 .

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.

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.

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125

9. 1.
,
9.1.
,
.

.9.1

.
.

.
,

.
,
.

126

9.2.
23.

, .

, ,
.

9.2.


, .


.
, ,

.
.

.

.

Bz
.

127

Bz
, ,
.

.
+Bz -

-Bz -

9.3.

,
,
,
.
,
:
.

128

,
,
. ,
,
, ,
.
,

.

, ,
, , .

N
9.4.

,

. :

129

9.3.

. K
,
,
.
, ,
,
.


.

Pe ( A )

Pe ( B )

Pa (A)

Pa (B)

9.5.
10.5
.
,
, ,
, .

130

, ,
.
.
, ,
. (9.5.)


. ,


. ,
,
Pe
. Pe

.

.

(7.3.),
,
:
P() = P + sv Pe() ............................( 10. 1.)
P() = P + sv Pe() .............................( 10. 2.)
: -P -
;
-sv -
,
-Pe() -
-Pe() - .




P > P .....................................................................(10. 3. )
,
,
, ,
.

131

.
,

.
,
.




.

9.4.

,
.

, .
,
.


.

.
,
.

.


.
,
. ,
, ,

.

132

9.5.

.

.
dx

9.6.

a, .

.
.

.

r > a
dI = B 2 r = oI....................................................(10.4.)
c
I
gde je B = o
2 r
,
, r
.

133

J
r < a
Ir
gde je B = o
..............................................
2

(10.6.)

B
a

Bmax.

r
a
9.7.

.

134

9.6.

Vr,
Vc
.


Vc
.

.

Vc
Vr
Vc

9.8.


.

.

.

135

,

.

.


.

q, m ,
, v.

.

v .

F = q v x B.................................................................. ( 10.7.)
( 2.1. )
.
r

m v/ r = q v B .............................................................. ( 10. 8.)
,

B
,
r = mv / qB .................................................................. ( 10.9.)

,

.


.

136

T=2r/v =2m/qB

....................................... ( 10.10. )

f = 1 / T = q B / 2 m ..............................................( 10.11. )

.


, ,
.
B .


.
, , v
.
v B.
v
, v cos
, v sin ,
, r

r =

m v sin / q.........................................................

10.12.)
, v
,
r.

, ,
,
.

137

.
.

V
Vc

9.10.

Vc, . Vp

.
,
, ,

.


, , ,
, .

.
,
,
.

138

,
,
.

, ,
.

9.11.

, ,
.

, ,

.

.
.

139

9.7.
,
,
.
,
.

9.12.
u 9.12.
-.



-.
,
, -
.

140

,
, .

.


,
.
.

9.13.
, ,
- -,

.
,
2006. .


.

.

141

9.8.

.
, ,
,
.

.
, ,
20 110
220 .
,
,.
.
9.8.

.



.
, ,
.


.
,
.




.
, ,
.
.

.
.

142

,
,
.


.
.

,
,
,
,

Bdl = ..........................................................

( 10.13.)

c


.

B dl =

dS ( 10.14.)

.


.
,
,
,

.

143

, ,
.

, ,
.

9.14.


:
,
,

.

144

10

.

,

.
.
,
-.

.

.
, .
,
.

, ,
.
10.1.


. ,
, , ,
,
.
,
, .
,
, .
,

.

.

, ,
.

145

10.1.

.

.
,
.
.

.

,
,
.
, , .

.
,
, .

,
.

+ 5

- 5

10.1.


.

F = q v x B = 0 .........................................................( 11.1.)

146

10. 2.
,

.
.

,
.

, ,
B .

10.2.

.
.

.


.
, .
.

147

10.3.
,
, .
, ,
.
.
:
-
;
-
;
- , ,


;
-
;
-
;
:
,

.

;
-
;
-

.

148

Saffir-Simpson .
10.4.

Saffir-Simpson

1
2
3
4
5

m/s
33-42
43-49
50-58
59-69
70+

mb
> 980
979-965
964-945
944-920
< 920

m/s
1.0-1.7
1.8-2.6
2.7-3.8
3.9-5.6
5.7+

10.4.

. ,
,
.

.
.

,
e .
, , ,
.
, ,
,
,
.


.
,
-
,
.

149

10.5.


.


, .

150

10.5.
,
, ,

.
,

.

10.3.
,
.
50 .


.

.

26,5
. (1948. Palmen, 1979. Gray ).
, ,
,
.

151

10.6.


17 .
200 600 .
, Saffir-Simpson- ,
33 .

.
.

10.6.

152

10.7.


.
.

. , ,

.

10.7.


.

153

, ,
.
r,


B 2r = o N ..............................................................(11.2.)
I N .
R

10.8.

r .
B = o NI / 2r ........................................................ (11.3.)

.

154

B .
B, ,
.

.
.

,
.

10.9.


.

155

10.8.

,
.


.
, , ,
.

High resolution
data from the
NOAA
29

August 2005
10.10.

.

,
.

156

.
.
.
High
resolution
data from
the NOAA
2nd
December
1994

10.11.

.
, ,
.

157

.

, ,
,
.


.
,

.

.

10.12.

,
.
.
.
,
, ,
, (10.9.)

158

10.9.

. , ,
. ,
.

. 12
15 20 .

50 ,

High
resolution
data from
the
NOAA
29nd
August 2005

10.13.

159

Fc, ,
.

Bt

Fc

R
Br

10.14.

, ,
,
.


.
, ,
r, .
.
,
Fc
r ,
R.
15 30
100 . ,
,
. ,
500 1500 .

,
, .

160

10.10.

. ,
,
.


.
,

.

5-7

10.15.

10.15.
.

.

.

161

10.11.

.

.

.

10.16.
.

,
.

162

28 2004. , , .

10.17.

.

.

.
.

163

10.12.
,
, .
,
,
. ,

,

.

.


,
, .
,
, r = mV / qB.

10.18.

164

.
,

. ,

.

,
,
.

.


.

, ,

.

165

11.
2000. .
2005.
,
, CIMSS.
.
a.

CIMSS
11.1. 28. 2005.
.


.
22. 1.50 UTC,
, , ,
. ,
S583.

166

183
S583.

11.2.
, S583,
, 22.
.
.

.
,

.

167

11.3.
23.
21,15 UTC 4.76, -33.83 .
, 28 2005.
09,15 UTC + 8,44
73,76 , 12
.

,

.

168

, ,
, 18. , 27,056
.


,. S583,
, .
S583
,
.
,
.

.

11.4.
S583
,
.
,
S583,
.

Wilma .

169

, , 15.
, .
,

.


, .

,
.

11.5.
11.1.
2005.
,
700mb .
2005.
, W.
.
, ,
.

170
-73.76
81. 50 3 . ,
+ 8.44 +
16,44 .
11.2.
Katrina 28 2005. 09,15 UTC
+ 8,44
700mb 73,76 ;
Rita 21. 2005. 08.45 UTC,
13,44 700mb
74.01 ;
Wilma 19 2005. , 04,44 UTC,
700mb -81,59
, 21. , 16,44 .
700mb
Wilma -33,19
,
50 .

NATIONAL URRICANE CENTER MIAMI, 17.
,
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7,
:
A TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -87C TO89C.
700mb ,

.

,
, .

171

90
,
,
,
700mb .
, .

90
-81.59

-33.19.
700mb

11.6.


.
, ,
, ,
,

.

172

173

12.
,

.

.
,
. , .

.

.


, .
.
,
i ,
.
,

,
.
.

.
220 .
,

.

, ,
,
.
, ,

.

174

a
,
.
,
.
12.1.
(Rowland) ,


.

.

, .

.
. ,
, .
a

.
,
, .
,

dq dt
.
i = dq / dt...................................................................( 11.2.1. )
,
e ,
.

.
,
, e
, ,
.

175

, ,
. ,
:
.


.
, ,

. :
.
,
.
,

. ,
,
.

.


.
,
,

.

.


,
, , .
,

.
,
,
,
.
.

176

12.2. .

.

, ,
.
,
,
.

.
.

. ,

, ,
, ,
.

1500

500

0
12 1.

177

,
.
.

. .
, ,


. ,
,
, .
, ,

.

12.2.

178

12.3.
,
, ,

.
,
.
.
.

12. 3.


. ,

.
,


. ,
, , ,
.

179

++++
++++ ++++ + +
+
+
+
+

Ko

-
12.4.



.
.
,

.

180

.

.
,

.
,
.
,
,
.
,
, , ,

.
K
,
.

.
12.4. .


.
. ,
, ,

.
, ,
,
.

.
, ,
.

.

181

,
, ,
.

.

.

,

. ,
.

++++++++++++++++++++
_

12.5.

.

Q.


s .
= s .................................................................(11.2.)

182

Q
= ------------ r ....................................................... (11.3.)
4o
,


s = - 1/3 P/o ........................................................... (11.4.)

= + 1/3 P/o ..................................................(11.5.)

.
, ,

.
,
.
,
, ,
.

.

.
,
,
. ,
,
.
.
,
,
,
. , ,

.

183

.
,
S1 S2 , .


.
1 = - 2 ............................................................... (11.6)
r1
r2 o .

n
r1
r2

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + +

S1

S2

__

__

__

__

__

__

__

__

__

12.6.

n
,

= 1 / 40 [ 1 dS1 / r1 + 2 dS2 / r2 ]..........(11.7.)
S1

S2

= / 40 ( 1 / r1 - 1 / r2 ) dS .........................(11.8.)
S

184

,

.
,
a.

.
,
,

.

= 1 / 40 [ dV/ r + dS / r ].................(11.9.)
V

.
.

.
dV
dW = KD dV ........................................................... (11.10.)

,
,


.

,

.

n
W = dV + dS ......................... (11.11.)
v

k=1 s

= divD ........................................................................(11.12.)


W = DKdV ..............................................................(11.13.)
v

185

,

.

.
,
.
, ,
,

.

+++++++
----------

+++++++
----------

+++++++
----------

+++++++
----------

12.7.

.
,

.
,
.

.

, ,
.


.

186
12.5.

q1 q2,
,

= 1 / 40

[ q1 r1 / r1 r1 + q2 r2 / r2 r2 ] ......(11.14.)
r2

r1
.

= 1 / 40 [ q1 / r1 + q2 / r2 ] .................... (11.15.)

, ,
.
,

.

.
,

, .

,
.

,
.

,
,
50 Gw .
5 10 Gw.
400 Gw .


.

187

12.6.

.

. ,
, ,
.
.
,
,
.
, ,

, .
, ,
, .
,
,
.
= 30 V/cm.
, ,
, 20 V/m
30 V/cm.

?


. ,
,
, ,
,
. ,
.

.

. :

.
, .

188

,

,
.
,
.

.

,
.
.
,
, ,
, ,
,

.
12.7.
, ,
.
.

.
, ,
.
,
. ,
,
,
.

.
.
, ,
.
, ,
.

189

12.8.

.

?

.
, ,
,
, .


,
.

.

12.8.

.

, .
,
,
.

190

,
,
,
.
, ,
.

,
. ,
,
.

,
. e ,

J = di / dSn ..(11.5.1.)
dSn
di
.
N
,
a
N e
= N e v = ------ K / vt ..................................... (11.5.2.)
2m
(11.5.2.)
K. N e/ 2m /
vt .
,
,

.
,
.
.

,
.

191

12.9.

,
.


.

,

.
, ,

.

.
, ,
.

12.9.


.

192

.
,
,
.
,
, .
.
,
,

.
.
,
.

max

12.10.

. ,
,
.

193

.
.

Bdl

= B 2 r = o i ........................................... (11.6.1.)

r
.
B = o

I / 2 r ......................................................... (11.6.2.)

( 2.3. )
r = mv / qB ...................................................................

(11.6.4.)

,
B
.
.

,
,
.
,
.
, ,

r .
.
, ,
,
.
:
.
, ,
.

194

, ,

. ,
,
,
.

,
.

,

. ,
,

.
,


. ,
,
. ,
, , ,
,
, .
, , ,
,

.
, ,

?

.

,
.

.

195

.
, ,
, .

,
. ,
.
.
,

.
12.10.
,
,

.
.


.
,

.
.
, ,
. ,
,
. ,
, ,

. ,
,
.
,
.
,

.

196
,

.
.

.

.

12.11.

.

197

13.



.

,
.

.

o
.
.
,
,

.



.
,

.

,
.
,
,
.

.


.

198

,
.

.
, ,

, , .

.

: ,
, , , , ,
.
13.1.


. ,

.
,
.

, , ,

,

,
, .

,
.


. ,

.

,
.

199

,
, 10. 2003. e,
. 0242
.

13.1

.
,
.
1100

840
.

200

2003. .

25

20

15

10
10-Jan
1-Apr
5

-5

-10
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

13.2.
13.2.
2003. .
10. 1. 2003.

g a,
.
,

.

,
.

.


.
?

,
,
.

201

, 1978. 1982

. 1978.
.
30

1978.

25
20
15

19-Jan
9-Apr

10
5
0
-5
1

25

11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

1982.

20

15

10
15-Jan
6-Apr
5

-5

-10
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

13.3.
.

27

1978. 1982.

202

1982

- - .
30

1986. god

25

20

15

16-Jan
7-Apr

10

-5
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

35

1983.

30

25

20
21-Feb-83

15

13-May-83

10

23.feb / 15. may

t = 33,3 stepena

-5
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

13.3.
1986. ,
,
.

.
.

-, - .

203

. ,



.
, ,
.

.

.
30

21-Jan-06

12-Apr-06

25
20
15
10
5
0
-5

7-M ay

8-M ay

5-M ay

6-M ay

3-M ay

4-M ay

1-M ay

2-M ay

29- A p r
30- A p r

28- A p r

26- A p r
27- A p r

24- A p r
25- A p r

22- A p r
23- A p r

20- A p r
21- A p r

18- A p r
19- A p r

16- A p r
17- A p r

14- A p r
15- A p r

12- A p r
13- A p r

-10

21- 22- 23- 24- 25- 26- 27- 28- 29- 30- 31- 1- 2- 3- 4- 5- 6- 7- 8- 9- 10- 11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan FebFeb Feb FebFeb FebFeb FebFeb FebFeb FebFeb FebFeb Feb
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

13.3.
13.3.

2006. .

204

-,

.
1978. g.

30

25

1986.g

30

2003.g

25

20

25

20

15
20

10

15
15

10
10

5
5

-5

-10

-5
1

19-Jan

10-Apr

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
16-Jan

7-Apr

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
10-Jan

1-Apr

13.5.

.
- 1978. 27,0 ;
- 1982. 28,0 ;
- 1986. 27,9 ;
- 2003. 26,6 .
- 2006. 27,1 ;
- 27,32 .
. ,
,
,
,
. -
27, 32, ,
1 .

205

-, 1947. ,
43,1 .
30

1947.

25
20
15
10

6-Jan

28-Mar

t = 43,1

-5
-10
-15
-20
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

13.6.
, -
.
30

1984.

t = 21,8

25

20

15
24-Jan
14-Apr
10

-5
1

13.7.

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

206

13.2.
,

.
2004. ,
,
,
, ,
.
.
27. 2003.
17. 2004. .

13. 8


. 0528 2170
.

207

,



.

2004.god

30

25

20

15
27-Dec

10

17-Mar

-5

-10
1

11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

13.9.


.

,

,
;
2004.

- .

208

, ,
2 20
.
.

.

, .
,
,
, .


, 5. 27

.

10
.

. 19. 22.
.


.

,
.
,
, 19-,
, .

1979. .
1979. ,
1978.
,

19- 24- .

209

1979.
,
,
.
1979.

25

20

15

10

8-Jan
24-Mar

og

-5

-10
1

11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

13.10. 1979. .
,
19- 1978, , ,
2004. .
11.
,
2004.
25 .
,
.


.

210

15 , 12

.


,

.

.
30

1975.
25

20

7-Jan-75

15

29-Mar-75

10

0
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

13.10.
, 1975. ,
,
.


.


.


.
.

211

13.3.


.

,
.
,
13.9..

13.9.


.
.
, ,

.


,

212

13. 4.

.
,

.


.
.


.
,
.
, ,

.
, ,
.



. 2006. .

.

2000. , ,
.

,
.
, .


.

213

13.5.

,

,
.
.

.
23. , 2000.
, , ,
13- 26-
.

13.10.


.
8882 2850
.

214

- , .
2000. ,
2002. .

.

.
,
, .

.
2000. 2002.
2000.
22

17
5-Mar-00
4-Mar-02
12

2
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

13.11.
2002.
.

.

215

2002. ,
, 2004. ,
.
2002. 2004.
30

2002.g
.
2002.

4-Mar-02
2-Mar-04

25

2004.
20

15

10

5
13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

13.12.
, ,
13- 20-
21- 26- . 13.12.


.
18- .

13- 16-
17-
.
20- . , 21-
, 24- .
25. .

216

.
,
.

.
2004.
2002, .
2002.
2006. , ,

2002. 2006.
30

2002.
2002.
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