Sri Lanka: The Levels Of Violence During The War & After

| by Robert C. Oberst
( August 19, 2014,Lincoln - NE , ri L!n"! #u!r$i!n% &i'e ye!rs !go, t(e ri L!n"!n security )orces
!c(ie'e$ *(!t (!$ been belie'e$ to be !n i+,ossible t!s". -(ey not only $e)e!te$ t(e )orces o) t(e
L--E but "ille$ or c!,ture$ !ll o) t(eir le!$ers see+ingly en$ing t(e .0 ye!r ol$ con)lict. /o*e'er t(e
,ost-*!r ,erio$ (!s gener!te$ ! $eb!te o'er t(e ,e!ce buil$ing ,rocess *(ic( beg!n in 0!y 2009. A
*!r o) *or$s (!s been )oug(t bet*een t(ose *(o !rgue t(!t t(e #o'ern+ent o) ri L!n"! co++itte$
*!r cri+es !n$ t(e su,,orters o) t(e go'ern+ent *(o (!'e trie$ to ,resent t(eir 'ictory !s ! +o$el o)
(o* n!tions c!n $estroy 1terroris+.2 3e+!n$s )or !n intern!tion!l tribun!l to e4!+ine t(e con$uct o)
t(e *!r (!'e +et ! ste!$)!st re)us!l by t(e ri L!n"!n go'ern+ent *(ic( re)uses to consi$er t(e
'!li$ity o) !ny outsi$e e'!lu!tion o) t(e *!r !n$ t(eir +et(o$s to en$ it. A l!c" o) e'i$ence !n$
e+,iric!l e'i$ence !bout t(e *!r (!s ,re'ente$ ! "no*le$ge!ble $eb!te. -(is brie) re,ort o))ers so+e
e+,iric!l e'i$ence !bout t(e con)lict t(!t +!y be use)ul to t(e continuing $eb!te.
-(is re,ort is !n e))ort to o))er so+e e+,iric!l $!t! to t(e $eb!te o'er t(e *!r. 5t is b!se$ on ! $!t! set
o) t(e c!su!lties o) t(e *!r. -(e $!t! set begun in 1964 (b!c"$!te$ to t(e 1970s% !n$ (!s !+!sse$ o'er
70,000 c!ses o) 'iolence $uring t(e con$uct o) t(e *!r )ro+ 1972 t(roug( 2009 !n$ continuing to t(e
,resent.
-(e Lincoln 8ro9ect g!t(ere$ $!t! )ro+ ri L!n"!n !n$ intern!tion!l ne*s sources. -(ere is li+ite$
s,!ce in t(is re,ort to )ully $iscuss t(e +!ny +et(o$ologic!l issues cre!te$ by t(e $!t! g!t(ering. -(e
+ost i+,ort!nt li+it!tion o) t(e $!t! is t(!t i) !n e'ent is not re,orte$ in t(e ,ress or by so+e grou,, it
is not inclu$e$ in t(e $!t!. /o*e'er, *it(out ! co+,re(ensi'e !n$ reli!ble source o) in)or+!tion )or
t(e nu+ber o) $e!t(s !n$ in9uries $uring t(e *!r, t(is is one o) t(e +ost co+,re(ensi'e sources o) $!t!
on t(e ri L!n"!n *!r !n$ its c!su!lties. Ob'iously, t(e +ost signi)ic!nt li+it!tion in t(e $!t! is t(e
li+ite$ in)or+!tion re,orte$ )ro+ t(e l!st ye!r o) t(e *!r. -(e go'ern+ent o) ri L!n"! sto,,e$
re,orting its o*n c!su!lties in +i$-2006 !n$ o) course ulti+!tely b!nne$ re,orters !n$ outsi$ers )ro+
t(e *!r :one.
3es,ite, t(is, t(ere *ere -!+il sources re,orting b!ttle $e!t(s !n$ "illings until A,ril 2009 !n$
continue$ re,orts being co+,ile$ by (u+!n rig(ts grou,s. 5n !$$ition, sources *it(in t(e +ilit!ry
re,orte$ so+e o) t(e c!su!lties $uring t(e )in!l ye!r o) )ig(ting. -(e st!tistics re,orte$ by t(e Lincoln
8ro9ect $!t! 'ery cle!rly un$erre,ort t(e nu+ber o) $e!t(s $uring t(e )in!l o))ensi'e !g!inst t(e L--E.
/o*e'er, t(ey o))er ! clue !bout t(e +!gnitu$e o) t(e "illing. -(e $!t! !lso ,ro'i$e !n in$ic!tion o)
t(e i+,!ct o) t(e *!r on t(e ri L!n"!n et(nic co++unities !n$ t(e e))ect on ci'ili!ns.
Anot(er li+it!tion o) t(e $!t! is t(!t it is const!ntly being u,$!te$ *it( ne* in)or+!tion;es,eci!lly
)ro+ t(e l!st b!ttles o) t(e *!r in 2009. -(e si:e o) t(e $!t! set !n$ t(e !rri'!l o) ne* $!t! li+it t(e
!bility o) t(e $!t! to be u,$!te$ <uic"ly. -(e current $!t! set (!s o'er 70,000 c!ses !n$ )i'e +illion
$!t! ,oints. As ! result, t(e results !re const!ntly c(!nging !s errors !re correcte$ !n$ ne* $!t! is
!$$e$. Ne'ert(eless, t(e c(!nges (!'e been rel!ti'ely s+!ll, but t(e tot!ls continue to gro*.
=(ile t(e $!t! set c!n re,ort !ny sub grou,s o) $e!t(s, in9uries !n$ !rrests, t(e $e!t(s re,orte$ in t(is
brie) re,ort inclu$e !ll et(nic!lly rel!te$ c!su!lties. -(is inclu$es riot $e!t(s !n$ +ob !tt!c"s !g!inst
-!+ils !n$ 0usli+s $uring t(e *!r ye!rs.
-O-AL -A-5-5C
5ronic!lly, t(ere (!'e been 'ery (!,(!:!r$ re,orts o) t(e nu+ber o) $e!t(s )ro+ t(e con)lict. =it( no
source re,orting t(e $e!t(s, esti+!tes o) t(e tot!l "ille$ (!'e '!rie$ *il$ly. -(e tot!l nu+ber o) $e!t(s
re,orte$ in t(e ,ress 1)ro:e2 in t(e l!te 1990s !roun$ 100,000, !lt(oug( so+e co++ent!tors continue$
to use t(e >?,000 )igure )ro+ t(e e!rly 1990s. -(ese nu+bers !re ri$iculously lo* !n$ $o not re)lect
t(e re!lity o) t(e ri L!n"! con)lict nor its i+,!ct on t(e society.
0ore t(!n 1>? t(ous!n$ $e!t(s !re recor$e$ in t(e $!t! set t(roug( 0!y 2009. -(is is ! 'ery (ig(
nu+ber )or ! society o) roug(ly 20 +illion ,eo,le. /o*e'er, t(e )ull i+,!ct o) t(e *!r c!n be seen by
t(e )!ct t(!t t(e o'er*(el+ing i+,!ct o) t(e *!r )ell on t(e -!+il ,o,ul!tion *(ic( *!s t(e +ost
seriously !))ecte$ by t(e *!r *it( ne!rly 72@ o) t(e $e!t(s being -!+ils or +ore t(!n 119,000 o) t(ose
"ille$. -(e -!+il ,eo,le e4,erience$ t(e )ull brunt o) t(e *!r. 3es,ite, ! l!rge nu+ber o) *i$ely
,ublici:e$ +!ss!cres o) in(!lese by t(e L--E, t(e $!y to $!y b!ttles !n$ )ig(ting in t(e nort( !n$ e!st
resulte$ in t(e o'er*(el+ing tot!l o) c!su!lties. -(e -!+il $e!t( toll co+,rises !bout ? ,ercent o) t(e
tot!l -!+il ,o,ul!tion o) ri L!n"!.
3es,ite being !))ecte$ by ! nu+ber o) l!rge sc!le (!n$ *i$ely re,orte$% +!ss!cres, t(e 0usli+
,o,ul!tion co+,rise$ less t(!n 2 ,ercent o) t(e $e!t(s. -(e ri L!n"!n !n$ *estern +e$i! ten$e$ to
)ocus on t(ese (orri)ic e'ents *(ile t(e $!ily $e!t( toll o) ci'ili!ns (+ostly -!+il% +ounte$ in t(e nort(
!n$ e!st on ! $!ily b!sis.
0ost o) t(e c!su!lties in t(e *!r *ere co+b!t!nts *it( ci'ili!ns co+,rising less t(!n .0@ o) t(e
$e!t(s. Once !g!in t(is )igure +!y be un$erst!te$. -(e un$erre,orting o) ci'ili!n c!su!lties in t(e )in!l
st!ges o) t(e *!r !s *ell !s t(e ten$ency o) t(e go'ern+ent to re,ort !ll "ille$ in b!ttles !s L--E, e'en
*(en so+e o) t(e c!su!lties *ere ci'ili!ns. -!+ils co+,rise$ ne!rly 64@ o) t(e ci'ili!n c!su!lties
once +ore re)lecting t(e bur$en o) t(e *!r on t(e -!+il ,eo,le.
-/E &5NAL -A#E O& -/E =AR
-(ere *ere t(ree ,erio$s o) intensi)ie$ con)lict $uring t(e *!r A 1990 to 1992, 199? to 2000 !n$ t(e
)in!l o))ensi'e o) 2007 to 2009. -(e bloo$iest ye!rs o) t(e *!r *ere t(e l!st ,erio$, 2007 to 2009
*(ere !t le!st 42,000 ,eo,le $ie$. 8rior to t(is, t(e ,re'ious bloo$iest ,erio$s, 1990-92 !n$ 199?-2000
s!* .1,000 !n$ ?>,000 $e!t(s res,ecti'ely. All t(ree o) t(ese ,erio$s coinci$e$ *it( +!9or go'ern+ent
o))ensi'es. /o*e'er, t(e biggest $i))erence bet*een t(e t(ree o))ensi'es *!s t(e ,ercent!ge o) ci'ili!n
c!su!lties. 5n t(e e!rly ye!rs o) t(e *!r !n$ es,eci!lly t(e )ig(ting in 1990, +ore t(!n 4?@ o) t(e
$e!t(s *ere ci'ili!ns. -(is is in contr!st to t(e ye!rs o) 8resi$ent Bu+!r!tung!Cs ,resi$ency, *(en t(e
nu+ber o) ci'ili!n c!su!lties $ro,,e$ s(!r,ly to less t(!n 10@ o) t(e $e!t(s. 5n t(e 'iolent ye!rs o)
1996 to 2000 t(e r!te $ro,,e$ to >.6 ,ercent o) t(e tot!l $e!t(s. -(e ,ercent!ge o) ci'ili!n $e!t(s rose
s(!r,ly !)ter 2004 (t(e ye!r t(e R!9!,!"se go'ern+ent c!+e to ,o*er% to +ore t(!n t*o-t(ir$s o) t(e
$e!t(s in 2009. #o'ern+ent )orces *ere +uc( )reer in "illing ci'ili!ns $uring t(e 8re+!$!s! o))ensi'e
in t(e e!rly 90s !n$ t(e l!ter R!9!,!"se o))ensi'e. /o*e'er, -!+il ci'ili!n c!su!lties $uring t(e
R!9!,!"se o))ensi'e e4cee$e$ t(e e4ce,tion!lly (ig( tot!ls in t(e 1990 o))ensi'e *(ic( e4,erience$
l!rge nu+bers o) -!+il 'ill!gers being "ille$ in ret!li!tion o) t(e sl!ug(ter o) ri L!n"!n ,olice+en.
5t s(oul$ be note$ t(!t t(e go'ern+ent cl!i+e$ +ore t(!n 1?,000 L--E $e!t(s in 2006 !n$ 2009,
$es,ite 2006 go'ern+ent esti+!tes o) only !bout ? to 7 t(ous!n$ L--E )ig(ters. 5) t(e go'ern+ent
inclu$e$ l!rge nu+bers o) ci'ili!ns in t(is tot!l, t(e ,ercent!ge o) ci'ili!n $e!t(s in t(e )in!l o))ensi'e
is e'en (ig(er t(!n t(e >?@. 5) one !ssu+es t(!t one-(!l) o) t(ose "ille$ !n$ re,orte$ !s L--E *ere
!ctu!lly ci'ili!ns, t(is r!ises t(e ,ercent!ge o) ci'ili!n c!su!lties to ne!rly 60@ o) t(e tot!l "ille$ in
t(ose 2 ye!rs.
Anot(er co++only re,orte$ +yt( o) t(e *!r *!s t(!t t(e L--E *!s res,onsible )or +ost ci'ili!n
$e!t(s. -(e $!t! set re,orts t(!t t(e go'ern+ent *!s res,onsible )or !bout 60@ o) t(e -!+il ci'ili!ns
"ille$ $uring t(e *!r. Al+ost !ll o) t(e in(!lese ci'ili!n $e!t(s *ere t(e res,onsibility o) t(e L--E.
Ag!in t(ere !re 'ery s(!r, $i))erences in t(e ,ercent!ge o) -!+il $e!t(s bet*een t(e ,re !n$ ,ost
C(!n$ri"! ,erio$. 3uring C(!n$ri"!Cs rule, t(ere *!s ! s(!r, $ro, in ci'ili!n $e!t(s !n$ roug(ly e<u!l
nu+bers o) -!+il ci'ili!ns "ille$ by t(e L--E !n$ t(e go'ern+ent. 5n t(e t*o ot(er ,erio$s, t(e
go'ern+ent *!s res,onsible )or t(e o'er*(el+ing nu+ber o) $e!t(s o) -!+il ci'ili!ns. 3uring t(e
)in!l 16 +ont(s o) t(e *!r, 'ery )e* in(!lese ci'ili!ns *ere "ille$ by t(e L--E. O'er 9?@ o) t(e
ci'ili!ns "ille$ $uring t(is ti+e ,erio$ *ere -!+ils !n$ +ost o) t(e+ in o,er!tions initi!te$ by t(e
go'ern+ent )orces or $irectly res,onsible )or t(e+.
CONCLD5ON
Cle!rly, t(e l!rge nu+ber o) ci'ili!n $e!t(s in t(e )in!l st!ges o) t(e *!r su,,ort !lleg!tions t(!t t(e
go'ern+ent t!rgete$ -!+il ci'ili!ns or !t le!st $i$ not +!"e suit!ble e))orts to !'oi$ ci'ili!n c!su!lties
$uring t(eir )in!l o))ensi'e. 5t is i+,ort!nt to note t(!t $uring t(e o))ensi'es o) t(e C(!n$ri"! er!, t(e
ri L!n"!n !r+e$ )orces *ere !ble to li+it t(e nu+ber o) ci'ili!n c!su!lties. 5t s(oul$ !lso be note$
t(!t t(e go'ern+ent en)orce$ 'ery strict rules ,ro(ibiting t(e security )orces )ro+ eng!ging in !tt!c"ing
ci'ili!ns. -(e nu+ber o) r!,es !n$ go'ern+ent security )orce r!+,!ges $ecline$ s(!r,ly $uring (er
,resi$ency. 5n !ny c!se, t(e go'ern+ent security )orces *ere !ble to li+it ci'ili!n c!su!lties *(en t(e
go'ern+ent le!$ers(i, $e+!n$e$ it. -(e un!ns*ere$ <uestion is *(y *!s t(ere suc( !n unc!cce,t!bly
(ig( ,ercent!ge o) ci'ili!n $e!t(s in t(e )in!l ye!r o) t(e *!r.
=(ile t(e $!t! ,oints to e4cessi'e $e!t(s o) -!+ils $uring t(e R!9!,!"se go'ern+entCs )in!l o))ensi'e,
it !lso s(o*s +uc( less 1o,,ression2 o) -!+ils in t(e ,ost *!r er!. Ag!in using ! 'ery liber!l
inter,ret!tion o) et(nic +inority $e!t(s, t(e nu+ber o) -!+ils !n$ 0usli+s $ying in t(e ,ost *!r
,erio$ (!s $ro,,e$ )ro+ ! (ig( o) !bout t(ree ! *ee" in 2009 !n$ t*o ! *ee" in 2010 to current tot!ls
o) !bout one $e!t( e'ery 1. $!ys in 201. !n$ 2014. /o*e'er, t(e nu+ber o) et(nic +inority
"i$n!,,ings (!'e re+!ine$ rel!ti'ely (ig( )or ,e!ce ti+e )ro+ !bout . ! *ee" )ro+ 2009 until 201..
5n t(e )irst > +ont(s o) 2014 t(e nu+ber (!s $ro,,e$ s(!r,ly to less t(!n one ! *ee".
Cle!rly t(e $!t! s(o*s t(!t t(ere (!'e been (u+!n rig(ts i+,ro'e+ents (!s +e!sure$ by $e!t(s !n$
"i$n!,,ings% in t(e -!+il !re!s o) ri L!n"! since 2009. =(et(er t(e $ro,s in 2014 !n$ 201. !re t(e
result o) incre!se$ intern!tion!l ,ressure !n$ scrutiny c!nnot be $eter+ine$ )ro+ t(e $!t! but *oul$ be
! re!son!ble e4,l!n!tion )or t(e $ro,. /o*e'er, t(e nu+ber o) et(nic +inority $e!t(s (!s $ecline$
s(!r,ly )ro+ t(e 2009 !n$ 2010 tot!ls. Anot(er sign o) t(e i+,ro'ing situ!tion (!s been ! $ecline in
t(e nu+ber o) -!+ils !rreste$. 5n 2012, +ore t(!n > -!+ils *ere !rreste$ ! $!y )or ,olitic!l !cts or on
sus,icion. 5n 201. !n$ 2014 t(e r!te $ro,,e$ to !bout 2 to . ! $!y.
3es,ite t(e i+,ro'ing situ!tion, it c!n e!sily be !rgue$ t(!t t(e 1,e!ceti+e2 tot!ls be)ore 201.-14 *ere
tot!lly un!cce,t!ble !n$ t(e lo*er le'els in t(e l!st 16 +ont(s !re still +uc( (ig(er t(!n s(oul$ be
!cce,t!ble in ! n!tion !t ,e!ce. -(e current tot!ls !re still (ig(er t(!n t(e r!tes in t(e ye!rs 1960 to
1962 *(en ri L!n"! *!s le!$ing u, to *!r. 5t s(oul$ !lso be note$ t(!t -!+il co+,l!ints !bout l!n$
encro!c(+ent by t(e +ilit!ry !n$ in(!lese settlers is not +e!sure$ by t(is $!t!. Also not inclu$e$ in
t(e $!t! !re t(e !rrests o) t(e 10,000 -!+ils !rreste$ $uring t(is ti+e ,erio$ )or trying to illeg!lly
i++igr!te to Austr!li! !n$ else*(ere.
-(e +yt( o) !n et(nic *!r in ri L!n"! t(!t "ille$ 100,000 ,eo,le un$erst!tes t(e intensity o) t(e *!r.
5n !$$ition, t(e $!t! on et(nic $e!t(s in ri L!n"! o))ers su,,ort )or t(e use o) e4cessi'e )orce !g!inst
-!+il ci'ili!ns $uring t(e l!st st!ges o) t(e *!r but t(e ,ost-*!r $!t! o))ers so+e signs o) i+,ro'e+ent
but still un!cce,t!bly (ig( le'els o) 'iolence !g!inst et(nic +inorities in ri L!n"!. 5n !$$ition, i) t(e
$ro, in 'iolence in 2014 is t(e result o) intern!tion!l ,ressure, t(ere is no re!son to not e4,ect it to
incre!se i) t(e intern!tion!l co++unity rel!4es its ,ressure on ri L!n"!.
5n su++!ry, t(e $!t! s(o*s t(e intense i+,!ct t(e ri L!n"!n *!r (!s (!$ on t(e -!+il ,o,ul!tion !n$
+ore i+,ort!ntly, t(e continuing nee$ )or reconcili!tion !n$ ,e!ce buil$ing in ri L!n"!.
Robert C. Oberst is 8ro)essor !n$ C(!ir o) 8olitic!l cience !t Nebr!s"! =esley!n Dni'ersity !n$ (!s
*ritten e4tensi'ely on t(e ri L!n"!n ,olitics !n$ con)lict. /e is !lso ! co-!ut(or o) #o'ern+ent !n$
8olitics in out( Asi!, 7t( e$ition.
End Notes:

1. Almost all of the data was gathered from Sri Lankan sources English, Sinhala and Tamil newspapers,
news sites and reports ! the go"ernment and human rights groups. #nitiall! it was limited to print media
ut added electronic sources at the! grew.
$. The riot totals are a "er! small percentage of the total deaths from the war and their inclusion has "er!
little impact on the results.
%. This percentage is a little misleading ecause, there was limited reporting of whether war casualties were
#ndian Tamils or Sri Lankan Tamils. &hile the o"erwhelming total of fighters and residents in the north
and east were Sri Lankan Tamils, there are some #ndian Tamils residing in these areas. #n addition, the
percentage is ased on static population figure while the war e'isted o"er a %( !ear period and thus, the
total population who li"ed during the war is higher than the static total used in this percentage.
). &hen reports contradicted the go"ernment*s claim of LTTE deaths, the! were included as an option in
the data. +owe"er, most reports of LTTE deaths were not contradicted.
,. This is ased on !ears with more than -((( deaths.
-. #n the last stages of the war, the LTTE .recruited/ large numer of Tamil !ouths to fill its depleted forces.
This can e'plain some of the discrepanc! as the! rushed underage comatants to the war front to increase
depleted forces. +owe"er, as earlier noted, ci"ilians killed in go"ernment attles were almost alwa!s
reported ! the go"ernment as LTTE memers during the war unless the! were killed ! the LTTE.