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fukuyama file

fukuyama file

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02/01/2013

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Army Debate
Fukuyama is Legit
America can only win the War on Terror through the political dimension of winning the
hearts and minds of the people. Improving the military won\u2019t help.
Fukuyama 2K6

(Francis, Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy and director of the International
Development Program at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, from
his book America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy, pg. 76)

It is important to separate the technological from the political
dimensions of the threat, because this greatly influences what one considers
a reasonable response to it and what kinds of risks one is willing to run to meet it.If

we are fighting a relatively small number of fanatics sheltering
behind a larger group of sympathizers, the conflict begins to
look like a counterinsurgency war fought around the globe.
This makes an exclusively military response to the challenge
inappropriate, since counterinsurgency wars are deeply
political and dependent on winning the hearts and minds of the
broader population from the beginning.

The terrorist threat is not apocalyptic and is overestimated by those in power. This
creation of enemies justifies dangerous and aggressive foreign policy.
Fukuyama 2K6

(Francis, Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy and director of the International
Development Program at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, from
his book America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy, pg. 62)

Neoconservatives after the collapse of communism tended to
overestimate the level of threat facing the United States.Durin g

the Cold War, they rightly (in my view) took a dark view of the challenge posed by
the Soviet Union, regarding it both as a military threat and as a moral evil. After the
breakup of the USSR, when the United States emerged as the world\u2019s sole
superpower, many neoconservatives continued to see the world as populated by
dangerous and underappreciated threats. Some saw China, by the late

1990s, as the new great power rival, a position from which it was rescued only by the September 11th attacks. The al-Qaida threat was real enough, of course, and nobody needed to invent new

enemies for the United States. But the terrorist threat was merged

with the rogue state/proliferation threat in a way that made it
seem utterly apocalyptic. The preventive-war doctrine, and the
significantly higher level of risks it entailed, were reasonable
responses only if one accepted these expansive premises about
the nature of the threat.

1
Army Debate
Fukuyama is Legit
The terrorist threat is overestimated due to racism in the West, and terrorist success will
be limited to isolated attacks.
Fukuyama 2K6

(Francis, Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy and director of the International
Development Program at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, from
his book America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy, pg. 71-72)

Krauthammer, in other words, argues that the political threat we
face comes from a version of the religion Islam, that it is
thoroughly unappeasable and anti-Western, and that it is
deeply and broadly rooted among the world\u2019s more than one
billion Muslims.
Each of these assertions is debatable and together vastly
overstate the threat that the United States faces in the post-
September 11 world. We are not fighting the religion Islam or
its adherents but a radical ideology that appeals to a distinct
minority of Muslims. That ideology owes a great deal to Western ideas in

addition to Islam, and it appeals to the same alienated individuals who in earlier
generations would have gravitated to communism or fascism. There is good reason
to agree with French Islamic experts Gilles Kepel and Olivier Roy that as a
political movement, jihadism was largely a failure. September 11
and the Iraq war have given it new life, but the jihadists ability to seize

political power anywhere is low and has been consistently
overestimated by many in the West. The terrorist threat is real
and deadly, but its most likely form will be isolated attacks in
Western Europe or in Muslim countries, comparable to
Casablanca, Bali, Madrid, London, and the Amman bombings.

2
Army Debate
Fukuyama is Legit
A foreign policy based on democracy promotion has the same success rate as praying for
miracles.
Fukuyama 2K6

(Francis, Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy and director of the International
Development Program at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, from
his book America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy, pg. 58)

There is no existing theory that explains how democratic waves
start in the first place, or why and when they crest or recede. The democratic
revolutions in Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine in the early twenty-first century suggest
that there is still considerable momentum left in the former communist world. But

while there is nothing wrong with being hopeful and open to
the possibility of miracles, it is another thing altogether to
predicate a foreign policy on the likelihood of multiple near-
term democratic transitions.

Democracy promotion just creates anti-US sentiment and will create more global enemies
and cause more attacks.
Fukuyama 2K6

(Francis, Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy and director of the International
Development Program at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, from
his book America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy, pg. 74)

In addition, Western democracy will not be a short-term solution

to the problem of terrorism. The September 11, Madrid,
Amsterdam, and London attackers lived in modern, democratic
societies and were not alienated by the lack of democracy in
the countries of their birth or ancestry. It was precisely the
modern, democratic society they lived in that they found
alienating. The long-term problem is thus not one of sealing
ourselves off or somehow \u201cfixing\u201d the Middle East but rather
the far more complex one of better integrating people who are
already in the West, and doing so in a way that does not
undermine the trust and tolerance on which democratic
societies are based.

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