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BIOWAR

Objective
Automated tools for evaluation of
response policies, data e~cacy,
attack severity, and detection
tools relating to weaponized
biological attacks
Tasks
- Develop prototype computational
model of responses to
weaponized biological attacks at
the city level
- Generation of artificial data for
early detection studies
- Illustrations of use - 'What IF"
- Initial data integration and
validation

c Biomedieal Secunty Institute 2001

Approach
- Combine network,
epidemiological, and
geographical components
into adaptive multi-agent
network model that can be
used as a "what ir analyzer

Progress
-

Initial alpha prototype model

capable of generating high
level general behavior

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Base
Scenario
Description

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What if Scenario.

O Bt0medical Secunty Institute 2001.

Why Use Computational

Modeling and Analysis?

Ethical: Cannot test response policies on real populations

Preparatory: Can create hypothetical weapons with more
potency than existing ones - Can exam ine wide range of
scenarios

Cost effective: Creating new technologies, procedures and

legislation for data collection is expensive
Faster: Real time evaluation of existing systems is too time
consuming
Appropriate: Complex non-linear dynamic system
Flexible: Response to novel situations requires rapid evaluation
of previously unexamined alternatives

IC Biomedical Security Institute 2001 .

Tasks

Evaluation of existing computational models

Design and develop prototype system for examining weaponized
biological attacks on city level populations
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Combine epidemiological and communication network models

Create disease models
Create realistic agent models
prototype
Create symptom testing models
Be able to read/write to shared NEDSS database
Scale model to city size
Link to geographical location data model and presentation (Arcvlew)

ii

Initialize model with real-world data

- Physical location, Census, Demographics, Social network, Cognitive
biases

Develop and illustrate 'What If' capabilities

Initial validation using influenza data

e Blomed1cal Security Institute 2001 .

Limitations of Existing Models

Epidemiological models assume uniformity of population - networks

Social network I communication mod~ls ignore disease
Existing agent-based models cognitively, socially and
geographically unrealistic
Lack of connection to real large scale data

Challenges to Be Met

Combine epidemiological, network and geographical location models

Create cognitively and geographically realistic agent-based model
Create a flexible enough system to explore a wide range of
unanticipated scenarios
Data integration and validation

C> Biomechcal Secunty lnsbMe 2001

Approach

Multi-Agent Network Model

-

Cognitive realistic
Socially realistic - Embedded in to social, knowledge and task networks
Integrated with geographic model
Organizational/Unit network
Communication technologies

Hybrid of many models

Spatial
- Disease
Network
Epidemiological

Examine

What If Analysis

- Cost
- Agent

Existing standard diseases viral and non viral - influenza

- Weaponized contagious - pneumonic plague, smallpox
- Weaponized non-contagious - anthrax

e Biomedical Security lnsutute 2001

BIOWAR Design

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Agent Model

Stared
BSS
Dal.iibase

NEDSS

Co111>lian1

C Biomedical Security Institute 2001 .

Parameterization & Initialization of

BioWar

Integration - Utilizing Real

Data for Parameterization
- Disease Data
Lethality, Type,
Symptoms, Timing
- Cognitive Data
Demographic Data
- Geographic Data
- Behavioral Data

Multi-source
Public

Data Source
- Disease Data
Archival, Medical Journals,
Historical Accounts
- Cognitive Data
Human experimental and field
studies In cognitive science
- Demographic Data
Census
GSS
- Geographic Data
Maps, Census
- Behavioral Data
Human experimental and field
studies in sociology,
anthropology, psychology

4-' BiomedJCal Security tnstrtute 2001

Verification & Validation

BloWar - Simulated Data

Validation - Real Data

General Behavior
- General behavior
Cross-sectional
Herd immunity
Over time
- Virtual Response Data
- Influenza
Absenteeism
Grade School Absenteeism
ER visits
ER reports
Pharmacy
Pharmacy purchases
Death rate
Death reports
Web hits
Cost
Inform future data collection

More Options

Samples, Incomplete

Validate and tune model

C Biomedical Secunty Institute 2001.

BioWar Alpha Prototype:

Illustrative Results Single Virus Influenza Attack
B10War

Actual

lnfected Influenza

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C 810med1cal Security lns1iMe 2001.

BioWar Alpha Prototype:

Illustrative Results of What IF Analysis

Lnfected

Death

I Dr/ER

Pneumonlc Plague - No Alert

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e 810med1Cal Secunty lnsbtute 2001-

Summary of Plans

Develop BIOWAR
Combine network, epidemiological, geographical, disease,
symptom, cost components into adaptive multi-agent what if
analyzer
Scale system to city level
Illustrate use of BIOWAR
-

Evaluate possible early response policies

Evaluate relative efficacy of different early detection data sources
and privacy policies
Evaluate relative severity of different types of attacks

Generation of artificial data for early detection studies

- Anthrax
- Pneumonic Plague
- Smallpox
- Influenza

Initial data integration and validation

o Boomedical Secunty lnstitule 2001.