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MilitaryAnalysts ConferenceCall

Moderator Tam Jonu, OSD-Publk Affairs

On Background
Transcriber. Murphy

Ms. Jones: This Is Tare ce call thb

morning. Iam joined by

~db.

Ms Jones He nas a few opening commentsfor you and men he'd be gbd tolak* your
questions, so.J J S ~pl- be remindedmb Is on oKK round on so you m a s k 4 to only ale a
.senior *ten"

p
office1* Wim mai, rl turn it ww o
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Good morning everybody 1just got back from Bagndad tost week My DOSS
was tmm yesterday and then of course Gen Myus was l h m lat week as wl Anal
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n rk ¥ con-panngnoiec between all of LS. and all of us who have Men doing I h r for ever a Year
over a war and a hlf or so we have 1come away uobabw mom ootknlsttc after this WP then
we ever have.
Cç1anyform RwacdifferentonmybntripmanIthÈmnontheyarandahalfthatI
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oeii doing IbIs And its a lot of mmgs I mean dearly thes@ntficamacbvmei ma violence me
-ties are going down. tmoing m me rightairwction But more Importantly w h a n evxtent out
theie Is the anttude of the people has changed The attitudeof lhw Iraqi Security Forces Have
changed they'vegot a Wmce to then stop Ibm Idon1think they had b e h the/m buildingthe
kind of serf confluenceu i a yo^ mM to be ¥Dito deveop a m l h r y or profeulonil police-
And me people h w e dçvçope mpçc *
Ithink for the ~ c u n t y t e r c Ãthat they h a m i l hiIn
long bma ~o .I m- mmgs am womhg in m pretty poçlbvdimdb We don t wnt to gçtoo
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opunisoc tx.1we all UI m m d JI tort pretty good a b o w ~ h a w <aw during our recent visit

Spent a tail amount of m e mVi Dave Petraous looking at 9Ã whob training ming T n a f g o i g
well We've now got a w l - not a b o ~w'w
l got 100 combat bMtellom ovw Inwe -80 m U W
Â¥n 20 M01or police commandosquaoronsand the like or battalions and the l k o Of Uwe 100
or so not quite half out mçyta Inlrd of (hem am ¥cl.rll i n w h w in millary -0s on a
day w a y DMÃ rhe ahaft am in vanouc nag~d you know. stending up BÃ n ng and Iof
that.
The toaaerehip continue*to be or b g challenge mat w e v got, although we am finding m e
successfulleaders 041there that are being mentored nicely Oy our foinà And iw have bbnd
npeciaiiy in thoso unlu matwem w m me I* c w u i d me I" ID from the prmouÃroMbon wwre
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'myemoiddeo embedded you know Americanor Coalitiontroop* In wilh the bÇf1.m-iho
battalions am doing pratty good WOTK. We've actualy wan put a m a d a n a ofoperationsin
Baghdadthat I think oolongs to me40*Iraql NaionalGuard -
raql Army 8alblm Iam not
exactly sure wfiich one ft $ tut R induces Hawaha Street ($p) which as you know rn a pretty
violent area and they're doing a pretty darned good job of polldng It up and we ve iwtched
violencego down in tnal area significantly So wem seeing a çof flood t r e m wiW the Iml

s ore and more ups from the peopleon where me baa g~ in y More and more bp* on wtrm
weapons caches we And a lot dthe Ug even- that recently happened where W v e gone
down and picked up beg* numbemd msbigenu have bean becauseof pretty oooo Into on the
part of the Iraqis
So things are trending well. As you know any big event could turn ftb wound. You know -tf
Muqtacta'smum dçcMe they didn't llke'the way ttis politicsoere going, Ihey could pull tnolhtf
now It took like Sadr 18
April kind of uplMng Ike they did about thls lime iatiyear. But ri@~l
moving In a poltkail d i m . ¥ if wcan law him engaged i n p o i i , thm Ithink we'll be OK
on that front
hen lastly we really need some help on the political side Iwont <ay oe'm aluppo-nttd In
yesterdaysTrmtttono ~ationalm b i y moobrig. b~ H w-ild hive been nica if they had
aiekçft ¥a*akrand &ad a nn~tidrrvum a &à m u d m n v o m ma mod on thm w rmy
of Iraq he b ~ e r t n a i g o ~ omemor*frustratedtn~people
n. am wing toget They -OM
and d d a vwy mu-LS trung in m.ng and thwfo llke to m t w i r elected goveinmom 01 in

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piace BJI that 8 poi tics and they11reconvene on the 3-of Apnl and hopefully by than Ihey wUl
havemingsmmad~~tandweuhivealinemore-wallgetoMeclosertowhdIraqbgoing
to look llke In the nm-too-dlstant future.

n m e * s u n i * w get Krygyzstandodoingtney're going to melt. but tnai 8 R 1 1take any

questionsyou may have
Paul Vallety Yes Paul Vakly Anything on the feeding and h-ling of the fins
across the boraer he e n S p a and the OK) W n g campaign 01 Qsxte n w to bring mom
tenters Into me Iraq area of operation?

~ e .w1 r e teeing tome ndicalnns that - os you know US m

I ~ ho
y d to tel you
know how many foreign fighters may or may not be commg across the border Evwy tme VM
estimate we f l we~ end up wxh me enmates are too high But wa have Men m capturedand
klliad am nwittoned in some of mew t-1 evante tomefting of d w we mink In Ihe numaei
of toreign flgnters ma are over there And wa 00 ~ eevemey i are comng acrou the bmer from
Syria S o I d o n t k n o à § l n a i w h i v e  ¥ n y l h h g I n n t r u t w c ayo0 o e w g o t f i r m w i d o w
l h à the or sn't h a o w m g In ncmawd numow b ~ l do w seam to bft identifying m o w h a l
more foiçtg fighters thin we h à § you know in the real recant part
Bob Maginnb General Bob Magnnr 1 -0 question One first of ail w i n regard b P a k h
and the F-161 and the gw-polilkxl t ~ f1 would
f llke you m adores* pernap tne among of fi*
decision And tw -o thing over in tne west- ~aiucnstanwhom tfry h i d ¥wrpmbtoms
recently What is irppemng with regm to trw port? I* trw tutl now moving to t m olance of
Pakrtan? And how r MusMrrafOwling with- bmwlng problem?

~ 0 V . o n t h e f i r s l w à onmeF 16 Iunnd-lammmtherewassome youknow

featon for the timing of me F.16 announcement; it probacuyhad more todo w l me recent vçn
to lna a an0 some willingnessat lean for them to understandmat H was tnat wa were vying to
ao or sn least we had the opportunity Imink m ¥xpri to them whit k b t h d we ¥nvklo doing
~o wnaher they wppon it or not. at 1- we n u an opportuntyto work it thrown them that w
n d ~ y o d k n o wwvebeenworkingthbF16probbm orlUWkfÈlon
and my -on on that r wtwthor or ndtfwy really need those F 161
wmtnei i s 9 m 9 10 affect the manceor not iscertainly quesUonabC I m a n India6 been
odyrig230m s so sothmisnitoomucnofabahnceofpowerIMUOtoJs ButJdoftsgobacK
to when we walk@ & a y from hem o m m e n-f lasw çi dion t ha ow through on the F-16
purchase that they had And U has Impactedour relationsto some (fgM n ¥omway in 0
m y significant way becausethen à still 0 wnoa wgmant of the Pakistan mlitary mat took*
Mch on those d a y and the F 16 sob 1s symbol m t w hew gone b*ck rwxaminad it, and
that we are senom aooutour relatonsnipand thai we're going to stay Oils bme Now it will be -
there wui be some convincing of folks mai wlu be nmbe -for a çtm bdt Itrunk mat th* I1
an important step.
the frontbr corps toilitperse-and workdirectlywith the tribal IÑter me same day they did in the
Fattah (sp)m south wasirastan (sp) recently.
Idon't know that mats going 10 satisfy everybody but think lhd whu he's trying to do right now
b d b m ~ miliunly
a ana work M poittcaly thmqh the fronber c u p and mrough h k minlttar
A m than about all IKnow about Baluchbmnnght now. othw ttum we stay concernad
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The ti-d munuas to m o w FJ know. s m e d t n e restrdms or some dthe Ks not j u t the
t iely on b m g aoto to go tnm~gh~aluchbtenif mm w u your question We've got moat d
f ~ f mat
our food goods an0 stufi go by road thresh Baii.chbmn 10 get n Atgnankm TOthe bast of my
knowledge none Ofttiat has bçedisrupted
JeffMcCaudand Genera thte b Jan McCamrnd You bilked a itde bt about the four of
cuifnt operations for çcçmpthçfoc~ on arçoutcue d BagMad. incluoing Ramad. and
Mosul that appear at 1- time* to b* problematical Ano n kmplno wMn your comments abed
Iraqi Security Forces, the fellows who ara out in Falulah here about a month or BO ago. wtwi do
you th,nk mat ne'm going to be aole to turn controlof Falujati back mu10the Iraqb and ma the
Mannas cisttym~chback out of mere?

We're In the pmceu right now ofworking with the local govfnment in FalluJJl to
vet and come w with a oolica force which we think is ma teadina edm tiaca of that Afl YCU
know, one of tha wançç'handled thb b brinaiwiutside police indoukide mililary- Iraqi
rnltoy- Into Fallujah to do the policing and law antereenrentalong with our Marines. Right now,
we've got a good program to turn Ms back over totha FallulaM and the Faliujan leadershipand
we don't pkn on making -and Idon? Know that tnçrwere mistakes made last time but it w
clear that the police form that we had in mere was not the police force we needad. So they're
being very carefulabout who they're hiring on to do that so that they are doing that as Iraqis and
for the bettormantofFaflujahand not the insurgency.
And at the same time, we're opening the door for construction going h to provide services and
that Is an getting batter on a day-today basis. But the police are signing up; here are plenty of
recruits out there to do this, and ifs just a matter ofgetting through the vetting ~ s . A n d
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hooefullv-mu know. Ican't a h vou a limeline butwa would d Rke to not bade to where
~aliujahtoanormal-runningcity icant rememberwhat the numbersa - it was in thereport
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e
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thb morning but Ithink titre'sover W,OM thaf are spmndlng m nfflhtthere now So thWm
moving back toward some normal operations.And we ought to be able to back out d mere before
too long, although I don? thinkwe'll take a closeeye off of it anytimeTeal won
IUnMentltledvoice) Any commentson openalons in Ramadiand Mosul?
well, Ramadi has had some i&r&Ung things happen. Recently the mayor and
someof the other lead ere hi^ have mcoonmd that the insumenti amtdolna RamfKli any flood.
Faiiujah had a maty big i m b on the k a d i folks andthey don't want ~ a k dtoi get the-
Falluiah treatment as ( h a w call H So thara have haan wvrm mat aood Indicationsthat the ~ u b l k

operating out of. And Us difficultto run those guys down, although we're kmwg an eye on them
and we're staying on them and we're maintainingtheoffensive against these guys. And we're
doing it with some success. The Imqis. as we predictedand as we hoped, are able to get pretty
good i n h a d o n on whafs going on out there In theflald that we weren't otherwbe- or we can't
 was Coalition manbere. And they've had IOITM pretty good succasaw mMy. So hopduty Bial
will continue to move in a pasltivedirection. But a1Anber Province will probaw- 1 moan this is
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just Smith talking will probably be the !adprovinca that we'l be able to 9% under reasonable
control. Ithink Mosul, certa'lntyBaghdad, and Satahaddin(sp) Ithink we'll bnng on board sooner
than we will at Anbar.

(Unidentifiedvoice) Wel I have one -nd q~9çltoIt ¥ee IKe. you mkw ¥bout ¥o Èu
itstrueoftheUS dde-miwicadown.ca~u~çMdownontheU tde.tioughifyoulOOkat1
from this d stance, mere appear* to be pçmapn11a n n d toward tha bad g u y attacking more
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and more l n q à So lrçqcum t l u don't wem to mybfl I'm mistaken haw dipped that
itgrtflcamly Are you all concerned about that fact à a powiMty of yo, know, this coming
somewnit between tHe Sh'a and the Sunnis particularly with the renmrtt yutecdiy by One of the
leading Sunno crncx m e r e he -Ã to nave KMof endorsedthe imuqanu and wha W m
dom?
Ablulely. And I mean you're exactly tight-they am attacking the Iraqi Security
Forces, thecampaignof intimidation and assassinationhas not slowed down at al. As you know,
they've gotten two senior Iraqigeneralshere h the last week. So that's not slowing down. IWN I
say that glvcn mat campaign that the recnilteam still standing h 111and mat there's Plenty of
them to QO In and do the job. But at the same time ifs starting to make them pretty angry and they
are starting to do what they need todo and aggressivelygo on the offensive againat (hew guys
and we'm helpingthemdo that So Ithhk mars what ifsgoing to take g ~ this 4 intimidation
campaign broken Imean, there will bea degree ofthb all along because t h y want to ensure
that these guys are not successful. But I don't thhk they'll be able todo that But you're exactly
right. The trend is toward the Iraqi Security Forces and going after the political leaders.

Jell Babbh: Genarai, Jed Babbh. There's a lot of ap~ubllon,Ithink aome of It beled by Foggy
Bottom, that mere's going to be some very substantial redudton of American forcac in Iraq thU
year. Have any decisions been taken yet with respectto sutrlanlial reductions or j u t where are
wein the-?

IN^
- Imean you understandour planning process and stuff As soon as we finish
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this rotation the one we're in m h t now we should Ithink today's forces we have 145.500
and some small number h Iraq today.That shouldgo down when this rotation is complete in the
next week. hçwpfiks or SO. That should 00 down to betwaan 135.000 and 140.000which was
sort of pre-election numbers. We- ~ e n e &Casey
l will do an assessment h June on where we
e with the iruuroencv. where ha thinks we am with thaelections,and make a determinationas
to whether or n o t b &I ramp down our forces below thai My expectation k wlh the two Pretty
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significantelections or events anyway, in October and December that we wdl be reluctantto
draw numbersdown signiflcardiy before thoseelections But Itwecould be some minor

next year, we ought to have -or what General Casey said was we ought to have, you know.
ilgnifcantly fewer forces than we've got right now, and 1have no reamtodispute that Certainly
that's tha glide slope we would Ike to be on
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Now .fs frustrating h e n we talk to especially ma foreign pms on m u Its -they don t
n we say as conoMora-cned. Du cloarty the enamy'n got a vor
~ n d f s i a n dwhat we m ~ when
h m à BJI 4 we can kaaotninns~ n d acontrol
r 1 think h a t anartha fim d th*ywr w r ought to be
able to tookat a differeni+hapix) and dlfbiwil-skw bra.
(Unidentified voice): Gnat. thinks.
I T -
S not. by me way the electedand all mat is a ~Qniflcantfactor
In that But"
w v u d 811along In* MI c w b i*nçramthe lraqi ~ à § c u rForces
t going to b* cawbto and
abla to iccçptn* missions that d m oomg 04than right now?And they're coming along
 quicker then Ithink than a 101of people mtimpioc r h e m mu 22 oette~mruout m w m t t m
actively engaged in wmhndapenoent operatom You know m e o f Own Èi rÈvIh
caoabliN to beable to w e the knd of cornmiinkallon 01w the hmllloenm that w havo of to
be'able to call In fires, so as has bean done for some time,you know. we do have embedded
forces with many of these unite and we'll continua to grow that capability.
(Unidentifiedvoice): Can Ifollow upon that? I hate to interrupt.
-youht

(Unidentified voice): One of the things that occurs to me is the questionof the dominanceof. You
know. one ethnic nrom versus another In t h a ~ a r l i m a nIts m a reflectedIn the mato-uD ofthe
security services?"~mean can you tall us you know what IS the rough breakdown Imean how
many -what percentage&e Kurds, whatpercentageareSht'a, what percentageare SUM~?YOU
know, what is the ethnic reflection In the security services?

That's a questim you'll haveto save for Dave Patmew. Thereare Issues
ethnically. As you know, the National Guard is no longer the National Guard. They're now part of
the IraalAmv. But mev am still a NationalGuard-I& organizationwhere thevllve In Place. So
they reflect the neighborhoodsthat they live In m a so lithe so& you can expect them to M
primarilyShfa and up north Peshmeroaor Kurdiahandthen SunnJs In me Sunnl arena Bul we
have tried to bulld the Iraqi ~ r m without
y regard to athnlcity but with varying degrees of s m s
d goes back to the baderehlpkfues that we haw idtrying to pick leaden that am not
~ n mat
l h Ãam actually mllWy leadenand not wing mehtrial eftnfe m l q b w background as m -
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how they build their leadership within thecompany ofthe Battalionor the division But we'd
all be nalw to think that are m t ethnic and community and tribal Issues withm the organizations
But weam trying very hard to makesuro we bulld an army mats ethnically divene That has
been the true success ofthe Afghan NationalArmy, In that, you know we've taken all these
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diverse mbes we've put them into m kidding an Afghan organizationwho's, who hat
Afghanistan's best Interest at heart, and we believematmare moving down that road with some
8-B with the IraqiArmy as well

(Unidentifiedvoice) To follow LJDan that could vou I dcomment on this assessment In June that
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General Casey win conduct Asyo. look d bolt) t h à § i ~ vofethe Insu~encyand f i e rf you wlU -
(M pollwà process In (and?) the pending elections- am you at dl cocicernea? Because ¥to
vesfrdav VOJ had sows toad na Imi oolb~çnoarl~mmtadmn,MYIW U W thouoht now
they are going to have to postpone theflnçlizln a coirtitution by at toaa su months, which
would alio then have the knock-on (7)effect of potconing the subsequentelections by several
months So we're looking at ttna not occumng h October or Decemberpotentially but next
perhapsMarch and Juneor even later

IRW wel. me TAL (~ran~~donal

dm n i t t r a m UWI - -
. i n t o r t u n ~ ~(UWW
doe~navoasixtn-monOi- lwontalçaloopholebutanoptionin(heretokickfibthingtoth
y
nghl tlx months And mart w hm you're h ~ r l n tgm tlx-mom thing T h à haw b a n m e
mm~iingsabed It ¥om time b ~ mkd tney orouidnt be abie to çmta constitution by ALQ 15
and stuff. parti~~mrly If they continuedgoing down the road they're going right now So that 8 a
real con- Ithinx it s too early to think ma that s going 10 h w p n dgnt now Mcau~e you'l
recall w went throi-gn the same thing wUh the elections in the first place And lots ¥n lot* of
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pçop wanteo to tick it to the right the Coflloon. (Grand Aywolta a0 SbUm and lou of QUIT
bKswori(çJtogçtrwtomakesuratfwtdantriapp So,too¥¥DyfIhinktoputalot
credence in that We vM do everythingw u n to m i t e sum ma1 ¥Ilhn Sluff Stayà m t i d i n e
Butnavingsa-amat,yos fiatwNIbeafacto*InhowweshapaourforcNwuhen Bullhe1
menbonao à § ~ i andà §Inarc really con ot why I m m m d a. wauae Iddn-l want togoawn
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the road that our force iiarig is gang to be mu ly oepenaemon me theater 1 mean on tho
NationalAssembly and the election*.Imm. it will be more douly a m l w or aligned with how
wet the traq Socunty Forcae am doing than It will be me ¥çcik> Iftough ¥Mwl IM OTUlnly
an Issue or something that we will have to think about as we look at thesize dthe forces that we
have over here.
I mean t is pass-b e for us to drew down forces based on the Iraq5 m a then be able to bring
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Them back over lor the elections or plan a TOA for that time frame the same way we do m
A1ghçnç So mare ore 0 Id d options M. snou d may kick trr eMctloni to the right
Boo Maglnrtt General Bob Magmnis w i n Tham w a r n o w In pslçriçrWall S t
Journal mal Wmd aCObt Chino workrq in your AOR and a m in EUCOU Specifto*ly II Uked
aboiK Ethiopia and Sadan and oil companm and armsand makmg rood8 and rully b q n g In to
those pemmlarcountries '1s Chinacreating at least torn CENTCOM's perspective, problems
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with me working à § w someof
~ Ihesacountries'regimes that puhaps am flivine hater or
comfort to lerror groups mat we're fighting?
I
we hxve M M wen m u a ~ f c t l yA* you know t h a w t ~ woriung on t i c ring
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road n Afghanistan You ça K exact)* right may hw bÑ nwataung for od nu- witn the
Sudan 1 em maware sp4cKwly wnu tney andoing in Eitilopiaattiwgh Iknow they hw
been n there But from oar parspacow ngnt no*. w m i iryng ~ to reaa too much brtwoen the
lines R IOONs IMe moç0alliance bu blng, economic relationship* and ¥tnà for a nation mat s
rapidly runningaJlofitsownrecourcesandelooMngallovrtheworiotofthe-foraoaYtobe
able to x a u b the needs d thou billionpoopte tnç they m t going to be abto to uMty
infmallv Sow mren't ÑI a n m m d l - or at i d h w n t o w n anvthinathU dmr'ndone

(unidenina voice) Genml one test m m n l Just got through the Donamon 'where ine 42""
came m and ma 3-10 old y w (MIm y SLgofiStbnmat men m ~ hOM t b m a twung of thoce
unft a. they armed by th. insurgent. or anything like that?
No rt-ttw very lnteresung Boç the 42" and me 3-10 cam0 in vary urong YW
know 1thmx Ihis is the thrd rotation www had now and we learn lessons evw bme on how to
Integrate hem now to do w rtaht-tert, C f t ' ~ ndw
t And thb has cleany been the ma4
u l m Im nk they probably wore testeo to a vary small wyw
s ~ ~ c e s s fmu3
Infesting in i t c h i n g the Mxnne transfer d aAhortty ovf in ¥Antrr. bocçwe W day Vwy
had a comment n their reports AM Ã appeared that the m d ouyxdidn't have any idea tnat they
were domg this replacement So ether they wwçnw a r e or they didnt think they could tam fu I
advantxgeof me new gdy stuffAnd you know last year during tue last tmwver we hed W M
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realy 1dontwarn tocal tham dumb things oecauw guys901 hurt, 01.1 it was very clear thai
thing* like gong up to in IED and looxlng at K with lhmg u y i n s w of one Ttwt happened
during me last turnover And you know the Qup tha wen departing would nÈve go Lp and look
a l a ~ u ~ p i c i o u s t h n g w à ˆ h ~ n y m b o d t e s h nneededla
the andlhmthençw~iiywoul
come In a m me thing would blow up and then inowd d hiding one guy Kwould hurt time g u y
Wà havçnwen a lot of tial no* W thought wewar s d n g some dit wrtn t i c large numbw
of vhlm accident* and sUfl that were going on. but In many cÑestruss w e the g u y that
weredepanng and not the guys that were coming So mis has b a n very SucceÑfu IÇnI
with310 ~mFuzzyWçMwandwmthçtroop*outmamandineyfeikemftymiratixo,you
know ieady to do mepo Tnay came in p+wmand Iaontthlnk t h M w ml*çÃa W o n Lhb
rouoo"
Ms. Jones: OK. gentlemon,we havetime for one morequestion. If anyone has one. At right well
thank you for Nining us and we appreciateyour participation.