Transcript Miltery Analyst Call

m r e ? 2 E p adj-enta in Iraq
P o n s on the recad:PORTIONSOFF THE RECORD
OSD Public Affairs, Room 2E556 The Pentagon
Host LTC OIam Bamglle, Joint C h i Public Attain
Transcriber Murohv

. .Foti<ttrmt l mink a n tuned in this morning, pretty much the normal let Of
suspects And aoa n. we'd be haom at anv ~ o i nhere
t when we've fintonedto take your
quaitions, and we'll take as loniai we med to.

What Iwould like to do Is split the lime this mmling 10 theextentthat we can.I would like to pitch
to you all for about 15 minutes, both the essenceofwhat's taking place and then some pointsthat
Iwould have for you that Ithink would hup you with your analysis, and then use the rest of the
time to go ahead and answer your questions.
Fim d ail loon t th nk t's a surprir to you at ths po nt çwtthe secretary having m n a d m d
with mama www having appeared as çarlas a week ago but certainly -n the papers In tns
momno that the 2d bade 1" hd ~n/itionnut of Schwanfun. Gennanv (note 000
mlease-says ~aumholder)wNI be prepositionadon its gear in Kuwait, serving as a call-forward
force

The Army has been busy prepositioningtheequipment of an armored brigade, analogous to what
we used to have there Immss before OIF. That eaummem 18 generally arriving and wit be h
place itis mom,and that's wns me 20 of Itr 1"Aimomd is falling inon. t h q wll be again in
mm call-forwardttatusfor an undtenn ned pfioo of time. bçsÃon mrecomnwxjaborr that
are going to be comma from tha Ñcrolar from tnÃcommandw of CENTWM.

Okay wcondly -and more In a moment about this caLInward status. Secondly the 1" Brigade
ofthi telnfan!iy Division out of Fort Riley Kan. was notified oh mid-~ovembhor so that they
would be in delayedstatus pending theirdeplo&nt to Iraq. They were told to enjoy Christmas
and their status would be providedto them shortly alter ChiBtmas and after the first of the New
Yaa,.

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They were scheduled to airive in Iraq actually in Kuwait on 13 Decemberwinthe latest
arrival date. and then to be in Iraq and ready to transfer authohty on the 12" of January.

Their status is being updatedby virtue of the orders the secretary has signed, and they will not be
deployedto Iraq as a bhgade. Again, thaOone of the M t s that Iwent to raise wlh you. in the
points that Iwant to make.

And let m e p into (nose points now. Them are four of them essentially. The first deals with the
1" of the 1 Infantry. As I said, they will not be going into theater as a bmada, but elements of
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the brigade win be deployingto Iraq and or as it turns out this morning, perhaps, a smaB
number Mo the Horn d Africa.

What's wendeo for the bngaoe, and mls s based upon Army deccionc an0 who's beçmilabto.
who's b u t mined (up on tap?) and that type ofmmg. is mm the brigadewill providem e n or
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eight ¥acunf comoan es m s will w r f m secumv roles convoy escort*. t h c u MM thlnga- in
and around Iraq a part of their "umber.

Thà or.gaoe is also tasked with prov ding a nmber l don't know how many frankly, S ths point
but a numwr of the tranxibon m m s mat wll work with Iraqi forcesand continue tnar
modernization and professionalismefforts and also the brigade neadquarurs has been tasked
with tne training of Army transition teams, and perhaps even other Service transition teams.
depending upon thetr maneup

But those are the three functions that the brigade will be performing now over the next year or so.
again, with certainly a portion of them going into Iraq.

Now, i would add that it is still a net plus in terms of the total numbers, okay? Becausethey am
going in as security companies, somebody else is not going, okay? So this isn't a shell game.
certainly, in that context it's just that these people are, again, readily available: they're more
preparedthan some of the other companiesfrom the other units that might be tagged a later Point
in time.

Let me talk to you some about the math, okay? Simplicity says that until about August, and for the
several months ieadino UD to that, we were about 1Wk as what we w l i me baseline force. You all
are well aware oecauk you tracked çm a we stanea la bump up at mat pa nf. first fw tne mid-
October retarendm andlollowingthat, of c o ~ f s eme mia-Dçcemt eection and Peak
nmbefs went to aboiit 160 000

Now that was obviouslyfor the election, we've done that before and every case we've come back
down to baseline, and that certainly is the intent this time.

Simple math woUd say okay we go cam to abo-t 1-30 000 two brigades 3,500 eact that's
awJt 7 000 sowelt neat 131 rant? We the answer 8 no mats not quite w h l And the
reason for that is since abou August of last year weve oeen look ng at transition reqdiremenisto
hana over th~sfight an0 i-hmately -nly responsb, bes to the raqn A M wove been
pfoviomg to tnem since about A ~ g ~ stne t , numoemof penpie tnat will be necessaryfor Wansiwn
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teams these 10 12 man elementsmatmi be working wnn me Iraqi ~ n l bwMh combat SLppon
-combat mice support types of people that w 1 suengmen ma1 raqi capabil ty and eventually
a ow them to do < memseivesas opposed to LS doing it for them detainee operationstypes of
folxs mat ml tram am ass a the Iraqis n taking over this functon as soon as we can hand It off
to them with new facil ties D L , ~in some cases oki fac-lnes wing renabbea and or again given
over to Iraqi control.

So wnat yd. see is some grown in arms of those transition wpab lines mat offset that s mpie
math 1 posw to you eanier We m m nghl now mat me essence of it will be a reaction Of 31000)
or 4 000 ITOODSfrom that 138 Outo- te franklv tnars a oromLon We are talion9 abodt Mar& by
the time we &ld get everybody out of theater and s t r i d down that were there for the election,
and of course, that's three months-plus hence from this point

But Ijust want to caution you all that some of the things that you may have heard or even have
seen in the paper this morning, unfortunately,are not precisely correct, and you all need to be
able to talk to that I think intelligently when you see It

The third point Iwould make is on the 2d of the 1" AD. General Abizari has his strategic reserve;
Us the MEU General Casey's operational reserve ifyou will is for ail intentsand purposes the 2d
of the 1" AD But we're choosing not to call it that Irs being labeled a "call forward* force, and if
vou all would be emlicit in your terminoloaieswhen addressfnoit. that would help us with regard
towhatwedohere: .
Now. how iona they're mino to be in that caoacitv. aaain. that remains to be seen. We know they
are there for at leait 90'daG You all understand' of'course there's routine assessmentsand
decision points that are being exercised by the commanderin theater He s simpty going to have
to watch the situation to see how long all or portions of that brigade need to stay in Kuwait So I
think we'll leave thatwith simply the bylinemoreto follow
The last thing is that Iwould emphasizeIs that this all Is coming about as a result Of Iraqi
progress. Imean, right now, the numbers are at 216,000 trained and equipped; 120Qlus Iraq1
zn-ndFyFwy"p;;oya; go;~Jy$~ndj E&*m'mm=F
leadershiprotes rightnow in that two division headquarters: that number of brigade headquarters
will ao uo to 11 or so bv tha end of January, So lrs a ncuthamttrandline in tumsof the Iraais.
b o t h c k g on line end assuming controlof groundand battto space as they are able to do
And again, tint'show GeneralCasey, GeneraiVinas. GeneralAbzald, the socreBry end the
chairman are all able to arrive at the decisionthat has now been made.
Iwould emphasizeto you that ITSdone In a militarychain of commandthat gees all the way to the
president it Is not based on political events. And that's all asa military man I suppose 1need to
say about that

Okay,that d'dnt taka a full 15 minutes,but that just gives us more $me for qLiestions. I'll be
hawy to field anything that you guys have.
Q This is .dl McCçuslçTwoquick quMtons On È I" of the I"you wid that they 8m
gong to be timing the transton turns. mil they be doing r o t back at Riley, the 1nMinatioMl
iramim canter. Kiiwai~lraa where will thaiomr? And on t m 1 AO hioade wnen will they
actually dose in ~ u w awith
h troops and equipment, and then lastly, anfcomments about the
future if things go wed at the end of spring?

-well, firstofalt in tenroofthe training, you know, Ithink. End I'll have toconfirm
ttus(or you, but Ithink Ifs going to lake place at home station In Riey.'nut would certainly limn
the logistics requirements of going elsewtiereto don Ican tall you it is not going tolake place in
thaaUf. It is gong to taka place In 010 United Stattt.

that allow them now to deployquickly if &event should necesatate that

In terms ofwhat will haooen down ranae Jeff. Imean. It lust defends. This has always been
filiation based, and &are going to hive to read thesituationas ndevelops. ~ w n o w t h ~ ' ~
some pretty positive trend lines out there compared to what we saw duringthe referendum in
tenro of casualties, in terms of numbemof ttlsck, in terms of WIEDs, suicideWIEDs, those
typa of things Ifthose things continue in a positivefaahlon,and Iraqiscontinueto show that they
a n manage it then Ithink there's proCably good news to follow. Butthai will be dependent upon
GeneralCasefa assessmentwhen those things pop on to the calendar.
Q: Thank you

Q: Hey General. Jed Babbln. We heard from General Caw,and iguess more reoenW from the
secretary,that we're trrina to balance thlnos between ~fovldho the Iraaiswith the su~ooiithey
need and not creatingin them a dependency on us to do ail of'those in ngÈ I understand tne
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concept Give us co& of points you Know. how do you make the .udgmml? What do you
babnce one MM net the other n term of trying to not create that dependency?

v-h. ~ Ã §Ith d nk mar* a good question ~ n id f a finoue queriion n a sort of

way because n a t dçpçndswtiat you're d d n g Wh at the time Imean Uwfb Jut like In
obr httarv imk Iraai units am ~ e f t e rthen other* But- they are able to & w>
up. am P W
much &iring that th& do so
 Ican toll you tnat in the reports this morning, that mare's the firtwhat they am call.ng Iraqi
origaae-level sweep that's taken place oJt n the Euphrates River Valley Thems a Marine rrte
corn- out of ~ ~ 1 mat. 2is them as-a ~ utho^
t ouvs concçheof t oianned n and
ex&ted all i n their own.Sothat'ithihpe ofgrowththat we & and mat we want to
encourage. And Ithink Diere's a belief on the p r t of our military and certainly our IkuderaMpthat.
you know, some of these unitewill be reticentto step toward unbsa you absolutely compel them
to do so. but that'sour rasmmlUlltv to bothtmin the Imab as tob one. conduct the neaMUIY
countennwmenwaslob k.but to make w m that that'first Gb is undaretood and executed as
won as we a n makeit happen
Q: Great, thanks.

I 0: This Is Jeff McCausland again. One other question -on the transitionteams -*fa
future? Is that going to be Amiy-Marine, or is that gang to be s o l e l y h y ?
in the

Jeff. actually USall S*rvic*s. The guys wno am oJÃ doing we dose cornbet kind
of stuff n clÑrt Army and Mane BJI w i l t we've seen à the direction,and wDwaiMntly the
willinorfu on the oartot ma Naw and the Ar Forcam ano uo wtrm Thev can. So wme of
these-transition teams are base -facilities (basefacilities7itrainingteams;some of them are
logirt-a mining tnmà So wtrm t à plawibb that a VnMtion ham can wont to do the type of
things ( h i we find resident in tne Ar Force a the Navy. aoa n those Services am stewing UP
Dig bme to help relieve some of the stress on the two ground Services

But clearty where there is a groundcombat role and that extends out to the bordertransition
teams - the special police and the transit& teams -you am going to ftid mostof those
are Army and Mamie.

Q: How are we coming, partailarly wilh the MEF, of impressing upon the Sunnis that the U S
and the Coalition forms am them last great hope, that If they continuethe insurgency then, you
know, time will Just force us to turn it over the Kurds and the Shi'a to solve it tor them, end we can
help them more than anybody wfth revisingthe constitution,economicresources,positions In the
cabinet Are we making progresswith them?

e m ,Ithink so. Isee some really positivesigns, without soundlng overty

IIsjuatthe turnout of the Sunnl vow. Ithink Buy ma620 thetthçh o d (?) t latt
.are not willing to see that occur that way this lime around. So that's Ithink a
positivesign.

Secondly, you know, we're actuallyseeing some red on red. In and around Ramadi, and out on
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the western border. The some of the bad guys have really had it with the AQI folks in R d i ,
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and them am lights taking place them, them are threats, them is intimidation on bothskies.
really. But ifs the old thing the enemy ofmy enemy Is my friend. And althoughthese,you know,
FRE (former regime elements?) and former Saddamlsts aren't going to really befriend us in ways
that we are seeing out west. we still see that as a ~ositfvething. and Ithinka realization on the
pert oft hose folks^ that you know, the final lokitin here Is going to be pllbcal, nut kinetic.

Theotharthlno is that out on the hordar,ana the border msts am now in Dbce and manned UP,
so we think w c a n start to throttle, you know, some of the numbers that we've seen coming
a c m . but secondly, you've got Intel aheite out there that have fought the AQI previoijth, who
am offeringtheir .young men to join the military In a militia-sortof way. we call them Desert
Protectors. And we've got three platms of those folks out and about And they am piovlding a
good Ut of intelligence;they're helpingof course with the security role; and Use good lie
 between sheiks out there that weren't necessarilyfavorable to the Manna in the west that are
now by necessitycaused to work somewhat in sync.

Q: And have some of them continued with me cease fire they put in during the election?

I ~ o know, I minkwe're
u probably,certainly t h e m w e ' r e g o i n g to
numbers of attacks go up some. There was never really a cease fire; Ithink that
little misunderstood. Ithink there probably were some discussionstaking place,
butthose aren't new, I mean. I had those when Iwas out there, and these guys can never quite
come across with the goods. We said, hey, show us your power by cutting off the attacks and
we'll start to believe that you speak for large numbers of people.

They were never quite able to do that And although I think there have once again been
discussionsthis time, nothing that approacheda cease fire, and attacks still did occur, so -
although they were somewhat diminished And these people did help us in securing the polling
sites.

So I (ton t know that there's a one-for-onerel-rn on lne effort, certainly one that we'll continue to
w e as çapproach tna new year

Q' Thank you.

Q General Bob Maginns On me Hom of Africa. you mdmted in p r explanat on of me first
po nt that the I*' of the 1" of co-ree ism going over n ts entirety out elements might go to me
Horn of Africa Are we growing or is mls a replacementeffort ,n that area?

IBob, I'll be honest wilh you, Idon't know the answer to that The informationI
out 30 minutes old. When I stepped in the Army had actually reduced the number
01 securlw companiesthat were going to be headed into Iraq, and included in that number was
one for the Horn of Africa.

Iwill tell you that we are trying notto grow it; that's the thrust. It's an economy of force mission,
and any request for forces that come in from there are very closely scrutinized, so I am going to
have to dig more into what they see is this reyirement I do know there's a security effortthere
that is existent in Diiibouti at the base. Whether or not these are QUYS that arelust scheduledto
go in and rotate them out, I can't say for sure

We are not providing a lot of security elsewherewith regard to convoys and that type of thing. So,
Iwould say 6040 that they're replacement,but Ican't say that with 100 percent assurity

Q: Thank you.

Q Genera. Tim Eaas Could ~ O Lgive LS a .!Me backgroundon me timing of th s announcement?

I mean is it m e a almost exc m v e y on the capam ity of me Iraqi forces to step in is mere
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somethina else n olau uoii know -the elartinn was iess man a weekaao Some may man< t s
strange that we are & n o k i n g troop withdrawals before the governmenthas stood up

Vean T m a1 tnose things certainty went into consawation I can tell you that
L acuasion on tn s now for some tme but that me election hanoing oJt there was a
major consaeration in terms of the annmncement VOJknow. we needed ti s& -we were
getting reports of come. that the bad g ~ y were
s going to try to disrupt and eraoicate yOJ know.
the successoftrie atection as mdcn as mevcould That oov.o~.slvdan Ihaomn Imean YOL ha0
a huge turnout and the ability of the Iraqiforces to defend it wasjust excellent

So, it was believed that we would wait and see how all that panned out before there were any real
announcementsof me decision, and mars essentially what you see here. Now, we realize that d
yod m k at what nappened recently with this ntenm governmentmat it took some WOJd a w e ,
90 days or more to stand up We re hoping mat doesn't happen ims time ome will certainty tell
Ano Im nx meres a lot of bacicroom aisci,ssm a lot of tea mats oana to oe orann oafore this
one realty is settled out But, I think people would say that we all &t 6omentum when they took,
you know so bng to put it together That's a lesson learned and we just hope it's applied as they
bring this one around.

Q: Thank you

Q: General, this is Jeff McCausland. I'm sorry. One more question. While Ifully am more than
happy to use this phrase call forward force asopposedto operational reserve, and I am sure all
my colleagueswill be happy to do that as well, could you kind of tell us why you want to do it that
way? I mean, all of us are comfortablewith operational reserve,makes sense In terms of military
terms (crosstalk).

BEGIN OFF THE RECORD

Okay guys Iam going to go off the record on this with you so you understand,
I hope, you know, why Iam having towuch wordscarefully here.

But as we went about the notification of our a Ies of tnis wno e wncept and design.-
-was the guy who neootiataawrtn me h a m s The Kwams are okay with the idea of a
=o
frward force a force that was ong na ly "tended to go into Iraq that will stop short In Kuwait
on mat pro-pro (7) gear and be reaoy to move in They are not wmfomble that K-wait- K M t
soil m u d be use0 as a oositioninotor an oneratbnalreserve It's aot to do w In Im sure m w
brig-term relabonshiosl i t h e real& all th& mes ofthinoa ~ uthey t have asked us to refer to
thatforce as a call-forward force; thafs the reason I've asked you all m do likewise.

Q: Thank you.

Q ^^^H Jed Babbn at to follow up on that an0 i am s ~ r if

e you want to stay off-the-record
on t One ot the m.ngswe neam over there wasmat there have beer a s~bttanba)number-
wel- 22 or thereabo~ts Kuwams wno had oeen cantnreo among me foreign mad sts Is this an
upturn; is this somethingthat we should worry about in terms of'the level of &eration from
Kuwait?

YOU MOW, that's the first I have heard of that figure. I see a chart once a week
that shows the number of foreign fighters, and Kuwait- even if mat recent number I suspect Is
true would not break the top seven or eight
We have not seen an ncrease in 1 hadists coming across the border and genng captured Of K-led
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that I can pomt to atthis ma You you know c a ~ me ~ tod rase my antenna on that. w l no
own repon.ng or no indication that have seen or picxed i-p on to tnat effect.

-okay gentlemen,we have about three more minutes. Are there any more

Q ^^^BBoo Magm s agan Questionw tn regard to Syr,a and nave we seen after Tan Afar
an0 the operatons in me Euphratesvalley nave we realv seen a dramabc decrease in me flow
of fihaoists corn ng out of Syria?

you know. Ithink me a n s w isa net yes an0 IM' say mat fora W L P I O ~ ~
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reasons The you mow Syrians aren't getting a b t of credn for what they are doing but Isee
excerpts that indicate they are doing more than mey were
I can't quantify that for you, bui that's a sensing that I've got. And Ithink it's a self preservation
thing more than it is you know, tor the good of the MNF or even Iraq. But Ithink thafs probably
accurate.

The other thing is that we do think that what happens in Baghdad, Rarnadi, Samara is directly
tied in a lot of instanceswith what's happeningon the border, and we think that there 1s disruption
in the flow and also in the safehouse structure that they had established in the Euphrates River
Valley.

We're cnaraaenzmg hose EJpnrates R.ver Valley operationsas be ng very successful not only
for nrfiai they did sort of in me loca area but also me mpact m a it has had with these downwan
trenos mat I mentionedto you in my openng discussion

The other thing that's kind of interestina is that we've gotten reports that it is so hot, and Icant
tak mum about it bi,t our S w a l or& charts wod d bear it 01.1 that some of these endere
have actJahy gone into Syria to operate because mey'rejut so afra d of capture or Doing
coo& esoecialv uo in tne vicinitv of Ta Afar ana Mow1 JD in m a rw on So mat's a net
positive debebpment as well. It doesn't get at the essence of your question, but it does point to
the heat that's being brought against these guys in what was previously some outlying areas.

Q: Thank you.

-okay, I thank you for joining us, gentlemen. Is there anything Ineed to follow up
on?

Q: (Jeff McCausland?) (Inaudible) verify training sites (Inaudible) Rtby, that might be helpful

-wi~m.

Hey guys, great to be with you again. Have a wonderful Christmas We will be
talking to you again afterthe New Year.

Q: Likewise, sir.
Q: Thanks general.
0: Great rundown.

Q Thank you very much

(call ends).