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MilitaryAnalysts ConferenceCall

Moderator Tam Jonu, OSD-Publk Affairs On Background Transcriber. Murphy
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Ms. Jones: This Is Tare morning. Iam joined by

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Ms Jones He nas a few opening commentsfor you and men he'd be gbd tolak* your questions, so.J J S ~plbe remindedmb Is on oKK round on so you m a s k 4 to only ale a .senior *ten" office1* Wim mai, rl turn it ww o t-

Good morning everybody 1just got back from Bagndad tost week My DOSS was tmm yesterday and then of course Gen Myus was l h m lat week as wl Anal n rk ¥ con-panngnoiec between all of LS. and all of us who have Men doing I h r for ever a Year over a war and a hlf or so we have 1 come away uobabw mom ootknlsttc after this W then P we ever have.

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Cç1anyform RwacdifferentonmybntripmanIthÈmnontheyarandahalfthatI oeii doing IbIs And its a lot of mmgs I mean dearly thes@ntficam acbvmei ma violence me -ties are going down. tmoing m me rightairwction But more Importantly w h a n evxtent out theie Is the anttude of the people has changed The attitudeof lhw Iraqi Security Forces Have changed they'vegot a Wmce to then stop Ibm Idon1think they had b e h the/m buildingthe kind of serf confluenceu i a yo^ mM to be Â¥Dito deveop a m l h r y or profeulonil policeAnd me people h w e dçvçope m à cthink for the ~ c u n t y t e r c à they h a m i l h In p §I that i long bma ~o . m I - mmgs am womhg in m pretty poçlbvdimdb We don t w t to gç n too opunisoc tx.1we all UI m m d JI tort pretty good a b o w h a w <aw during our recent visit ~

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Spent a tail amount of m e mVi Dave Petraous looking at 9à whob training ming T n a f g o i g well We've now got a w l - not a b o ~w'w got 100 combat bMtellom ovw Inwe -80 m U l W ¥n 20 M01or police commandosquaoronsand the like or battalions and the l k o Of Uwe 100 or so not quite half out mçyta Inlrd of (hem am ¥cl.rll i n w h w in millary -0s on a day w a y DMà rhe ahaft am in vanouc nag~d know. stending up Bà n ng and Iof you
The toaaerehip continue*to be or b g challenge mat w e v got, although we am finding m e successfulleaders 041there that are being mentored nicely O our foinà And iw have bbnd y npeciaiiy i thoso unlu matwem w m me I c w u i d me I" ID from the prmouÃroMbon wwre n * ' yemoiddeo embedded you know Americanor Coalitiontroop* In wilh the bÇf1.m-iho m battalions am doing pratty good WOTK. We've actualy wan put a m a d a n a ofoperationsin Baghdadthat I think oolongs to me40*Iraql NaionalGuard raql Army 8alblm Iam not exactly sure wfiich one ft $ tut R induces Hawaha Street ($p) which as you know rn a pretty violent area and they're doing a pretty darned good job of polldng It up and we ve iwtched violencego down in tnal area significantly So wem seeing a ç flood t r e m wiW the Iml of

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s ore and more ups from the peopleon where me baa g

~ in More and more bp* on wtrm y weapons caches we And a lot dthe Ug even- that recently happened where W v e gone down and picked up beg* numbemd msbigenu have bean becauseof pretty oooo Into on the part of the Iraqis

So things are trending well. As you know any big event could turn ftb wound. You know -tf Muqtacta'smum dçcMe they didn't llke'the way ttis politicsoere going, Ihey could pull tnolhtf April kind of uplMng Ike they did about thls lime iatiyear. But ri@~l It took like Sadr 1 now 8 moving In a poltkail d i m . ¥ if wcan law him engaged i n p o i i , thm Ithink we'll be OK on that front
hen lastly we really need some help on the political side Iwont <ay oe'm aluppo-nttd In yesterdaysTrmtttono ~ational b i y moobrig. b~ H w-ild hive been nica if they had m aiekçft ¥a*akrand &ad a nn~tidrrvu a &à m u d m n v o m ma mod on thm wm m r y of Iraq he b ~ e r t n a i g o ~ omemor*frustratedtn~people wing toget They -OM n. am and d d a vwy mu-LS trung in m.ng and thwfo llke to m t w i r elected goveinmom 01 in piace BJI that 8 poi tics and they11reconvene on the 3-of Apnl and hopefully by than Ihey wUl havemingsmmad~~tandweuhivealinemore-wallgetoMeclosertowhdIraqbgoing to look llke In the nm-too-dlstant future.

n m e * s u n i * w get Krygyzstandodoingtney're going to melt. but tnai 8 R 1 1take any questionsyou may have Paul Vallety Yes Paul Vakly Anything on the feeding and h-ling of the fins across the boraer he e n S p a and the OK) W n g campaign 01 Qsxte n w to bring mom tenters Into me Iraq area of operation?

I ~ e .w r e teeing tome ndicalnns that - os you know US m 1

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~ h o d to tel you y

know how many foreign fighters may or may not be commg across the border Evwy tme VM

estimate we f l we end up wxh me enmates are too high But wa have Men m capturedand ~ klliad am nwittoned in some of mew t1 evante tomefting of d w we mink In Ihe numaei of toreign flgnters ma are over there And wa 00 ~ eevemey are comng acrou the bmer from i Syria S o I d o n t k n o à § l n a i w h i v e  ¥ n y l h h g I n n t r u t w c a yo0 o e w g o t f i r m w i d o w l h à the or sn't h a o w m g In ncmawd numow b ~ l do seam to bft identifying m o w h a l w more foiçtg fighters thin we h à § you know in the real recant part
Bob Maginnb General Bob Magnnr 1 0 question One first of ail w i n regard b P a k h and the F-161 and the gw-polilkxl t ~ f1 would llke you m adores* pernap tne among of fi* f decision And tw -o thing over in tne west- ~aiucnstan whom tfry h i d ¥wrpmbtoms recently What is irppemng with regm to trw port? I* trw tutl now moving to t m olance of Pakrtan? And how r MusMrrafOwling withbmwlng problem?

~ 0 V . o n t h e f i r s l w à onmeF 16 Iunnd-lammmtherewassome youknow featon for the timing of me F.16 announcement; it probacuyhad more todo w l me recent vçn to lna a an0 some willingnessat lean for them to understandm t H was tnat wa were vying to a ao or sn least we had the opportunity Imink m ¥xpri to them whit k b t h d we ¥nvklo doing ~o wnaher they wppon it or not. at 1 we n u an opportuntyto work it thrown them that w nd~yodknow wvebeenworkingthbF16probbm orlUWkfÈlon on that r wtwthor or ndtfwy really need those F 161 and my -on 0 wmtnei i s 9 m 9 1 affect the manceor not iscertainly quesUonabC I m a n India6 been odyrig230m s so sothmisnitoomucnofabahnceofpowerIMUOtoJs ButJdoftsgobacK lasw çi dion t ha ow through on the F-16 to when we walk@ & a y from hem o m m e nf purchase that they had And U has Impactedour relationsto some (fgM n ¥omwy in 0 a m y significant way becausethen à still 0 wnoa wgmant of the Pakistan mlitary mat took* Mch on those d a y and the F 16 sob 1 symbol m t w hew gone b*ck rwxaminad it, and s that we are senom aooutour relatonsnipand thai we're going to stay Oils bme Now it will be there wui be some convincing of folks mai wlu be nmbe -for a çtm bdt Itrunk mat th* I 1 an important step.

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the frontbr corps toilitperse-and workdirectlywith the tribal IÑter me same day they did in the Fattah (sp)m south wasirastan (sp) recently.
Idon't know that mats going 1 satisfy everybody but think lhd whu he's trying to do right now 0 b d b m ~ miliunly ana work M poittca ly thmqh the fronber c u p and mrough h k minlttar a A m than about all IKnow about Baluchbmnnght now. othw ttum we stay concernad

The ti-d munuas to m o w FJ know. s m e d t n e restrdms or some dthe Ks not j u t the f ~ f mat iely on b m g aoto to go tnm~gh t ~aluchbten mm w u your question We've got moat d if our food goods an0 stufi go by road thresh Baii.chbmn 1 get n Atgnankm TOthe bast of my 0 knowledge none Ofttiat has bçedisrupted
JeffMcCaudand Genera thte b Jan McCamrnd You bilked a itde bt about the four of thçfoc~ a à outcue d BagMad. incluoing Ramad. and on r § cuifnt operations for çcçmp Mosul that appear at 1 time* to b* problematical Ano n kmplno wMn your comments abed Iraqi Security Forces, the fellows who ara out in Falulah here about a month or BO ago. wtwi do you th,nk mat ne'm going to be aole to turn controlof Falujati back mu10the Iraqb and ma the Mannas cisttym~ch back out of mere?
vet and come w with a oolica force which we think is ma teadina edm tiaca of that Afl Y U C

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We're In the pmceu right now ofworking with the local govfnment in FalluJJl to

know, one of tha wançç'handled thb b brinaiwiutside police indoukide mililary- Iraqi rnltoy- Into Fallujah to do the policing and law antereenrentalong with our Marines. Right now, we've got a good program to turn Ms back over totha FallulaM and the Faliujan leadershipand we don't pkn on making -and Idon? Know that tnçrwere mistakes made last time but it w clear that the police form that we had in mere was not the police force we needad. So they're being very carefulabout who they're hiring on to do that so that they are doing that as Iraqis and for the bettormantofFaflujahand not the insurgency. And at the same time, we're opening the door for construction going h to provide services and that I an getting batter on a day-today basis. But the police are signing up; here are plenty of s recruits out there to do this, and ifs just a matter ofgetting through the vetting ~ s . A n d hooefullv-mu know. Ican't a h vou a limeline butwa would d Rke to not bade to where ~aliujahto anormal-runningcity icant rememberwhat the numbersa r e ' - it was in thereport over W,OM thaf are spmndlng m nfflhtthere now So thWm thb morning but Ithink titre's moving back toward some normal operations.And we ought to be able to back out d mere before too long, although I don? thinkwe'll take a closeeye off of it anytimeTeal won

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IUnMentltledvoice) Any commentson openalons in Ramadiand Mosul? well, Ramadi has had some i&r&Ung things happen. Recently the mayor and someof the other lead ere hi^ have mcoonmd that the insumenti amtdolna RamfKli any flood. Faiiujah had a maty big i m b on the k a d i folks andthey don't want ~ a k dtoi get theFalluiah treatment as ( h a w call H So thara have haan wvrm mat aood Indicationsthat the ~ u b l k

operating out of. And Us difficultto run those guys down, although we're kmwg an eye on them and we're staying on them and we're maintainingtheoffensive against these guys. And we're doing it with some success. The Imqis. as we predictedand as we hoped, are able to get pretty good i n h a d o n on whafs going on out there In theflald that we weren't otherwbe- or we can't

w s Coalition manbere. And they've had IOITM pretty good succasaw mMy. So hopduty Bial a will continue to move in a pasltivedirection. But a Anber Province will probaw- 1 moan this is 1 just Smith talking will probably be the !adprovinca that we'l be able to 9% under reasonable control. Ithink Mosul, certa'lntyBaghdad, and Satahaddin(sp) Ithink we'll bnng on board sooner than we will at Anbar.

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(Unidentifiedvoice) Wel I have one -nd q~9çlto Â¥ee IKe. you mkw Â¥bout Â¥o à It ˆ u itstrueoftheUS dde-miwicadown.ca~u~çMdownontheU tde.tioughifyoulOOkat1 from this d stance, mere appear* to be pçmapn11a n n d toward tha bad g u y attacking more and more l n q à So lrçq cum t l u don't wem to mybfl I'm mistaken haw dipped that itgrtflcamly Are you all concerned about that fact à a powiMty of yo, know, this coming somewnit between tHe Sh'a and the Sunnis particularly with the renmrtt yutecdiy by One of the leading Sunno crncx m e r e he -à to nave KM endorsedthe imuqanu and wha W m of dom?

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Ablulely. And I mean you're exactly tight-they am attacking the Iraqi Security Forces, thecampaignof intimidation and assassinationhas not slowed down at al. As you know, N I they've gotten two senior Iraqigeneralshere h the last week. So that's not slowing down. IW say that glvcn mat campaign that the recnilteam still standing h 111and mat there's Plenty of them to QO In and do the job. But at the same time ifs starting to make them pretty angry and they are starting to do what they need todo and aggressivelygo on the offensive againat (hew guys 4 and we'm helpingthemdo that So Ithhk mars what ifsgoing to take g ~ this intimidation campaign broken Imean, there will bea degree ofthb all along because t h y want to ensure that these guys are not successful. But I don't thhk they'll be able todo that But you're exactly right. The trend is toward the Iraqi Security Forces and going after the political leaders.

Jell Babbh: Genarai, Jed Babbh. There's a lot of ap~ubllon, think aome of It beled by Foggy I Bottom, that mere's going to be some very substantial redudton of American forcac in Iraq thU year. Have any decisions been taken yet with respectto sutrlanlial reductions or j u t where are wein the-?
Imean you understandour planning process and stuff As soon as we finish this rotation the one we're in m h t now we should Ithink today's forces we have 145.500 and some small number h Iraq today.That shouldgo down when this rotation is complete in the next week. hçwpfiks or SO. That should 00 down to betwaan 135.000 and 140.000which was sort of pre-election numbers. We- ~ e n e &Casey will do an assessment h June on where we l e with the iruuroencv. where ha thinks we am with thaelections,and make a determinationas to whether or n o t b &I ramp down our forces below thai My expectation k wlh the two Pretty significantelections or events anyway, in October and December that we wdl be reluctantto draw numbersdown signiflcardiy before thoseelections But Itwecould be some minor

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next year, we ought to have -or what General Casey said was we ought to have, you know. em ilgnifcantly fewer forces than we've got right now, and 1have no r a todispute that Certainly that's tha glide slope we would Ike to be on

Now .fs frustrating h e n we talk to especially ma foreign pms on m u Its -they don t u ~ndfsiand what we m ~ when we say as conoMora-cned. D cloarty the enamy'n got a vor n h m à BJI 4 we can kaaotninns~ n d acontrol 1 think h a t anartha fim d th*ywr w r ought to be r able to tookat a differeni+hapix) and dlfbiwil-skw bra.

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(Unidentified voice): Gnat. thinks.
I T S not. by me way the electedand all mat is a ~Qniflcantfactor that But" In w v u d 81along In* MI c w b i*nçramthe lraqi ~ à § c u rForces going to b* cawbto and 1 t abla to iccçp missions that d m oomg 04than right now?And they're coming along tn*

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quicker then Ithink than a 1 1of people mtimpioc r h e m m 22 oette~mru m w m t t m 0 u out actively engaged in wmhndapenoent operatom You know m e o f Own Èi rÈvIh caoabliN to beable to w e the knd of cornmiinkallon 01w the hmllloenm that w havo of to be'able to call In fires, so as has bean done for some time,you know. we do have embedded forces with many of these unite and we'll continua to grow that capability. (Unidentifiedvoice): Can Ifollow upon that? I hate to interrupt. -youht (Unidentified voice): One of the things that occurs to me is the questionof the dominanceof. You know. one ethnic nrom versus another In t h a ~ a r l i m a nIts m a reflectedIn the mato-uD ofthe security services?"~ mean can you tall us you know what IS the rough breakdown Imean how many -what percentage&e Kurds, whatpercentageareSht'a, what percentageare SUM~?YOU know, what is the ethnic reflection In the security services? That's a questim you'll haveto save for Dave Patmew. Thereare Issues ethnically. As you know, the National Guard is no longer the National Guard. They're now part of the IraalAmv. But mev am still a NationalGuard-I& organizationwhere thevllve In Place. So they reflect the neighborhoodsthat they live In m a so lithe so& you can expect them to M primarilyShfa and up north Peshmeroaor Kurdiahandthen S n J In me Sunnl arena Bul we u ns y have tried to bulld the Iraqi ~ r m without regard to athnlcity but with varying degrees of s m s ~ n mat goes back to the baderehlpkfues that we haw i trying to pick leaden that am not d d l h Ãam actually mllWy leadenand not wing mehtrial eftnfe m l q b w background as m how they build their leadership within thecompany ofthe Battalionor the division But we'd all be nalw to think that are m t ethnic and community and tribal Issues withm the organizations But weam trying very hard to makesuro we bulld an army mats ethnically divene That has been the true success ofthe Afghan NationalArmy, In that, you know we've taken all these diverse mbes we've put them into m kidding an Afghan organizationwho's, who hat Afghanistan's best Interest at heart, and we believematmare moving down that road with some 8 B with the IraqiArmy as well

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(Unidentifiedvoice) To follow LJD that could vou I dcomment on ti assessment In June that an hs of and General Casey win conduct Asyo. look d bolt) t h à § i ~ v ethe Insu~ency f i e rf you wlU (M pollwà process In (and?) the pending elections- am you at dl cocicernea? Because Â¥to vesfrdav VOJ had sows toad na Imi oolb~çn oarl~mmtadmn, MYIW U W thouoht now they are going to have to postpone theflnçlizln a coirtitution by at toaa su months, which would alio then have the knock-on (7)effect of potconing the subsequentelections by several months So we're looking at ttna not occumng h October or Decemberpotentially but next

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perhapsMarch and Juneor even later

I TAL (~ran~~donal n i t t r a m UWI RW wel. me dm

.intortun~~y (UWW doe~navoasixtn-monOi- lwontalçaloopholebutanoptionin(heretokickfibthingtoth nghl tlx months And mart wm you're h ~ r l n t tlx-mom thing T h à haw b a n m e h gm mm~iings abed It Â¥om time b ~ m d tney orouidnt be abie to çmta constitution by ALQ 15 k and stuff. parti~~mrlythey continuedgoing down the road they're going right now So that 8 a If real conIthinx it s too early to think ma that s going 1 h w p n dgnt now Mcau~e 0 you'l recall w went throi-gn the same thing w h the elections in the first place And lots Â¥n lot* of U pçop wanteo to tick it to the right the Coflloon. (Grand Aywolta a0 SbUm and lou of QUIT bKswori(çJtogçtrwtomakesuratfwtdantriapp So,too¥¥DyfIhinktoputalot credence in that We vM do everythingw u n to m i t e sum ma1 Â¥Ilhn Sluff Stayà m t i d i n e Butnavingsa-amat,yos fiatwNIbeafacto*InhowweshapaourforcNwuhen Bullhe1 menbonao à § ~ i and Inarc really con ot why I m m m d a. wauae Iddn-l want togoawn ç the road that our force iiarig is gang to be mu ly oepenaemon me theater 1 mean on tho NationalAssembly and the election*.Imm. it will be more douly a m l w or aligned with how wet the traq Socunty Forcae am doing than It will be me ¥çcik> Iftough Â¥M IM OTUlnly wl

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an Issue or something that we will have to think about as we look at thesize dthe forces that we have over here.
I mean t is pass-b e for us to drew down forces based on the Iraq5 m a then be able to bring Them back over lor the elections or plan a TOA for that time frame the same way we do m snou A1ghçnç So mare ore 0 Id d options M. d may kick trr eMctloni to the right

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Boo Maglnrtt General Bob Magmnis w i n Tham w a r n o w In pslçriçr Wall S t Journal mal Wmd aCObt Chino workrq in your AOR and a m in EUCOU Specifto*ly II Uked aboiK Ethiopia and Sadan and oil companm and armsand makmg rood8 and rully b q n g In to those pemmlarcountries '1s Chinacreating at least torn CENTCOM's perspective, problems with me working à § w someof Ihesacountries'regimes that puhaps am flivine hater or ~ comfort to lerror groups mat we're fighting?

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If c t l yA* you know t h a w t we hxve M M wen m u a ~

~ woriung on t i c ring n road n Afghanistan You ça K exact)* right may hw bÑ nwataung for od nu- witn the Sudan 1 em m w r sp4cKwly wnu tney andoing in Eitilopiaattiwgh Iknow they hw a ae been n there But from oar parspacow ngnt no*. w m i iryng to reaa too much brtwoen the ~ lines R I O s IMe moç0alliance bu blng, economic relationship* and Â¥tnà for a nation mat s ON rapidly runningaJlofitsownrecourcesandelooMngallovrtheworiotofthe-foraoaYtobe able to x a u b the needs d thou billionpoopte tnç they m t going to be abto to uMty infmallv S w mren't ÃI o ‘ a n m m d l - or at i d h w n t o w n anvthinathU dmr'ndone

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(unidenina voice) Genml one test m m n l Just got through the Donamon 'where ine 42"" came m and ma 3-10 old y w (MIm y SLgofiStbnmat men m ~ hOM b m a twung of thoce t unft a. they armed by t . insurgent. or anything like that? h
No rt-ttw very lnteresung Boç the 42" and me 3-10 cam0 in vary urong YW know 1thmx Ihis is the thrd rotation www had now and we learn lessons evw bme on how to t Integrate hem now to do w rtaht-tert, C f t ' ~ ndw And thb has cleany been the ma4 s ~ ~ c e s s f u l m Im nk they probably wore testeo to a vary small wyw mu3

Infesting in i t c h i n g the Mxnne transfer d aAhortty ovf in Â¥ Antrr. bocçwe W day Vwy had a comment n their reports AM à appeared that the m d ouyxdidn't have any idea tnat they were domg this replacement So ether they wwçnw a r e or they didnt think they could tam fu I advantxgeof me new gdy stuffAnd you know last year during tue last tmwver we hed W M realy 1dontwarn tocal tham dumb things oecauw guys901 hurt, 01.1 it was very clear thai thing* like gong up to i IED and looxlng at K with l mg u y i n s w of o e Ttwt happened n h n u p during me last turnover And you know the Q tha wen departing would nÈve go Lp and look a l a ~ u ~ p i c i o u s t h n g w à ˆ h ~ n y m b o d t e s h nneededla andlhmthençw~iiywoul the come In a m me thing would blow up and then inowd d hiding one guy Kwould hurt time g u y Wà havçn wen a lot of tial no* W thought wewar s d n g some dit wrtn t i c large numbw of vhlm accident* and sUfl that were going on. but In many cÑestruss w e the g u y that weredepanng and not the guys that were coming So mis has b a n very SucceÑfu IÇnI with310 ~mFuzzyWçMwandwmthçtroop*outmamandineyfe ikemftymiratixo,you know ieady to do mepo Tnay came in p+wm and Iaontthlnk t h M w ml*çÃa W o n Lhb

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Ms. Jones: OK. gentlemon,we havetime for one morequestion. If anyone has one. At right well thank you for Nining us and we appreciateyour participation.

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