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Elementary Statistics
Larson Farber
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Section 4.1
Probability
Distributions
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Random Variables
A random variable, x is the numerical outcome
of a probability experiment.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Types of Random Variables
A random variable is discrete if the number of possible
outcomes is finite or countable. Discrete random variables
are determined by a count.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Types of Random Variables
Identify each random variable as discrete or continuous.
x = The number of people in a car
Discrete – you count the number of people in a car 0, 1,
2, 3… Possible values can be listed.
x = The gallons of gas bought in a week
Continuous – you measure the gallons of gas. You cannot
list the possible values.
x = The time it takes to drive from home to school
Continuous – you measure the amount of time. The possible
values cannot be listed.
x = The number of trips to school you make per week
Discrete – you count the number of trips you make. The
possible numbers can be listed.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Discrete Probability Distributions
A discrete probability distribution lists each possible
value of the random variable, together with its probability.
A survey asks a sample x P(x)
of families how many
0 0.004
vehicles each owns. number of
vehicles 1 0.435
2 0.355
3 0.206
Properties of a probability distribution
• Each probability must be between 0 and 1, inclusive.
.30
P(x)
0.206
.20
.10
0.004
0
00 11 22 33
x
• The height of each bar corresponds to the probability of x.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Mean (Expected Value)
Calculate the mean
x P(x) x- μ (x -μ ) P(x)(xP(x)
- )
0 0.004 -1.763 3.108 0.012
1 0.435 -0.763 0.582 0.253
2 0.355 0.237 0.056 0.020
3 0.206 1.237 1.530 0.315
0.601
variance
The standard deviation is 0.775 vehicles.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Section 4.2
Binomial
Distributions
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Binomial Experiments
Characteristics of a Binomial Experiment
• There are a fixed number of trials. (n)
• The n trials are independent and repeated under identical
conditions.
• Each trial has 2 outcomes, S = Success or F = Failure.
• The probability of success on a single trial is p. P(S) = p
The probability of failure is q. P(F) =q where p + q = 1
• The central problem is to find the probability of x
successes out of n trials. Where x = 0 or 1 or 2 … n.
The random variable x is a count of the
number of successes in n trials.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Guess the Answers
1. What is the 11th digit after the decimal point for the irrational number
e?
(a) 2 (b) 7 (c) 4 (d) 5
2. What was the Dow Jones Average on February 27, 1993?
(a) 3265 (b) 3174 (c) 3285 (d) 3327
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Quiz Results
The correct answers to the quiz are:
1. d 2. a 3. b 4. c 5. b
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Binomial Experiments
A multiple choice test has 8 questions each of which has 3
choices, one of which is correct. You want to know the
probability that you guess exactly 5 questions correctly.
Find n, p, q, and x.
A doctor tells you that 80% of the time a certain type of surgery is
successful. If this surgery is performed 7 times, find the probability
exactly 6 surgeries will be successful. Find n, p, q, and x.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Binomial Probabilities
Find the probability of getting exactly 3 questions correct on the quiz.
Since order does not matter, you could get any combination
of three correct out of five questions. List these
combinations.
SSSFF SSFSF SSFFS SFFSS SFSFS
FFSSS FSFSS FSSFS SFSSF FFSSF
Each of these 10 ways has a probability of 0.00879.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Combination of n values, choosing x
.10 .088
.015 .001
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
x
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Probabilities
x P(x)
0 0.237
1 0.396
2 0.264
1. What is the probability of answering 3 0.088
either 2 or 4 questions correctly? 4 0.015
P( x = 2 or x = 4) = 0.264 + 0.015 = 0. 279 5 0.001
2. What is the probability of answering at least 3 questions correctly?
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Parameters for a Binomial Experiment
Mean:
Variance:
Standard deviation:
Use the binomial formulas to find the mean, variance and
standard deviation for the distribution of correct answers on
the quiz.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Section 4.3
More Discrete
Probability
Distributions
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
The Geometric Distribution
A marketing study has found that the probability that a person who
enters a particular store will make a purchase is 0.30.
•The probability the first purchase will be made by the first person
who enters the store 0.30. That is P(1) = 0.30.
•The probability the first purchase will be made by the third person
who enters the store is (0.70)(0.70)( 0.30). So P(3) = (0.70) (0.70)
(0.30) = 0.147.
The probability the first purchase will be made by
person number x is P(x) = (.70)x- 4(.30)
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
The Geometric Distribution
A geometric distribution is a discrete probability distribution
of the random variable x that satisfies the following
conditions.
1. A trial is repeated until a success occurs.
2. The repeated trials are independent of each
other.
3. The probability of success p is the same for
each trial.
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
Application
A cereal maker places a game piece in its boxes. The
probability of winning a prize is one in four. Find the
probability you
a) Win your first prize on the 4th purchase
P(4) = (.75)3. (.25) = 0.1055
b) Win your first prize on your 2nd or 3rd purchase
P(2) = (.75)1(.25) = 0.1875 and
P(3) = (.75)2(.25) = 0.1406
So P(2 or 3 ) = 0.1875 + 0.1406 = 0.3281
c) Do not win your first prize in your first 4 purchases.
1 – (P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4))
1 – ( 0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.1406 + 0.1055)
= 1 – .6836 = 0.3164
Larson/Farber Ch. 4
The Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution
of the random variable x that satisfies the following
conditions.
1. The experiment consists of counting the number of times, x, an
event occurs in an interval of time, area or space.
2. The probability an event will occur is the same for each interval.
3. The number of occurrences in one interval is independent of the
number of occurrences in other intervals.
P(3) = 0.0076