Random Variables and Probability distributions

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:

 Define a random variable in order to differentiate between a

discrete distribution and a continuous distribution

 Determine the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a

discrete distribution

 Solve problems based on random variables.

 Random Variables:
In most of these experiments, we were not only interested in the particular outcome that
occurs but rather in some number associated with that outcomes. For example

(i) In tossing two dice, we may be interested in the sum of the numbers on the two dice.

(ii) In tossing a coin 50 times, we may want the number of heads obtained.

(i) In the experiment of taking out four articles (one after the other) at random from a lot of
20 articles in which 6 are defective, we want to know the number of defectives in the
sample of four.
 Random Variables:
In all of the above experiments

We have a rule which assigns to each outcome of the experiment a single
real number. This single real number may vary with different outcomes of
the experiment. Hence, it is a variable.

Also its value depends upon the outcome of a random experiment. and,
hence, is called random variable
Example:1 Consider the experiment of tossing a coin two times in succession.
The sample space of the experiment is S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

If X denotes the number of heads obtained, then X is a random variable and for each
outcome, its value is as given below :
X(HH) = 2, X (HT) = 1, X (TH) = 1, X (TT) = 0.

Again if Y denote the number of tails for each outcome of the above sample space S.
Then Y(HH) = 0, Y (HT) = 1, Y (TH) = 1, Y (TT) = 2
Thus, X and Y are two different random variables defined on the same sample space S.
Example:3
Consider the experiment of tossing a fair coin three times independently. Define the random
variable X to be the number of heads obtained in the three tosses. A complete enumeration of
the value of X for each point in the sample space is
Question:1 An urn contains 5 red and 2 black balls. Two balls are
randomly drawn without replacement. Let X represent the number of
black balls. What are the possible values of X? Is X a random variable ?

Question:2 Let X represent the difference between the number of heads

and the number of tails obtained when a coin is tossed 6 times. What are
possible values of X?
Continuous random variables take on values at every point over a
given interval.
 Requirements for the
Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable x

1. p(x) ≥ 0 for all values of x

1.  p(x) = 1 where the summation of p(x) is over all possible

values of x.
 Discrete Probability Distribution Example

Experiment:1 Toss 2 coins. Count number of tails. Define random

variable and draw its graph. Find mean and variance.

Probability Distribution
Values, x Probabilities, p(x)

0 1/4 = .25

1 2/4 = .50

2 1/4 = .25
Visualizing Discrete Probability Distributions
Listing Table

{ (0, .25), (1, .50), (2, .25) } f(x) p(x)

# Tails Count
0 1 .25
Graph 1 2 .50
2 1 .25
p(x)
.50
.25
.00 x
0 1 2
 Summary Measures
1. Expected Value (Mean of probability distribution)
• Weighted average of all possible values
•  = x p(x)
2. Variance
• Weighted average of squared deviation about
mean
• 2 = (x  p(x)
3. Standard Deviation
●   2
Expected Value & Variance Solution*

x p(x) x p(x) x– (x –   (x –  p(x)

0 .25 0 –1.00 1.00 .25

1 .50 .50 0 0 0
2 .25 .50 1.00 1.00 .25
 = 1.0  .50
 .71
Example:2 Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-shuffled deck of
52 cards. Find the probability distribution of the number of aces.
Example: 3 The table shown below is a discrete distribution that contains the number of crises that
could occur during the day in a department and the probability that each number will occur. Find mean
and variance.
Example:4
Let X denote the number of hours you study during a randomly selected school day. The
probability that X can take the values x, has the following form, where k is some unknown
constant.
The Binomial Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
A widely known discrete distribution constructed by determining the
probabilities of X successes in n trials.

Characteristics of a Binomial Experiment

The experiment involves n identical trials

Each trial has only two possible outcomes: success and failure
Each trial is independent of the previous trials
The terms p and q remain constant throughout the experiment
p is the probability of a success on any one trial
q = (1-p) is the probability of a failure on any one trial
 Binomial Probability Distribution ---B( n, p)

 n  x n x n!
p( x)    p q  p x (1  p ) n  x
 x x ! (n  x)!

p(x) = Probability of x ‘Successes’

p = Probability of a ‘Success’ on a single trial
q = 1–p
n = Number of trials
x = Number of ‘Successes’ in n trials
(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
n – x = Number of failures in n trials
 Binomial Distribution
Probability n! X n X
function P( X )  p q for 0  X  n
X ! n  X  !

Mean
value
  n p

Variance and
 2
 n pq
standard
deviation    2
 n pq
 Binomial Probability Distribution
Example:1 Toss 1 coin 5 times in a row. Note number of tails. What’s
the probability of 3 tails? Find mean and standard deviation.
n!
p( x)  p x (1  p ) n  x
x !( n  x )!

5!
p (3)  .53 (1  .5)53
3!(5  3)!

 .3125
Binomial Probability Table (Portion)
Binomial Distribution Characteristics
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
1.0
Mean .5
  E(x)  np .0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

Standard Deviation

  npq
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5
.6
.4
.2
.0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
 Graphs of Selected
Binomial Distributions
n = 4 PROBABILITY P = 0.5
1.000
X 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.900
0.800
0 0.656 0.063 0.000 0.700
0.600
1 0.292 0.250 0.004

P(X)
0.500
0.400

2 0.049 0.375 0.049 0.300

0.200

3 0.004 0.250 0.292 0.100

0.000

4 0.000 0.063 0.656 0 1 2 3

X
4

P = 0.1 P = 0.9
1.000 1.000
0.900 0.900
0.800 0.800
0.700 0.700
0.600 0.600

P(X)
P(X)

0.500 0.500
0.400 0.400
0.300 0.300
0.200 0.200
0.100 0.100
0.000 0.000
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
X X
Example:2 You’re a telemarketer selling service contracts for Macy’s.
You’ve sold 20 in your last 100 calls (p = .20). If you call 12 people
tonight, what’s the probability of
A. No sales?
B. Exactly 2 sales?
C. At most 2 sales?
D. At least 2 sales?
Example:2
n = 12, p = .20
A. p(0) = .0687
B. p(2) = .2835
C. p(at most 2) = p(0) + p(1) + p(2) = .0687 + .2062 + .2835
= .5584
D. p(at least 2) = p(2) + p(3)...+ p(12)= 1 – [p(0) + p(1)]
= 1 – .0687 – .2062 = .7251
Example:3
A Gallup survey found that 65% of all financial consumers were very satisfied
with their primary financial institution. Suppose that 25 financial consumers are
sampled and if the Gallup survey result still holds true today, what is the
probability that exactly 19 are very satisfied with their primary financial
institution?

Solution:
Example:4
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, approximately 6% of all workers in
Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed. In conducting a random telephone survey
in Jackson, what is the probability of getting two or fewer unemployed workers
in a sample of 20?

Solution:
 Poisson Distribution
Describes discrete occurrences over a continuum or interval
A discrete distribution and Describes rare events
As n is large and p is small, the binomial probability can be approximated
by the Poisson probability function
Each occurrence is independent any other occurrences.
The number of occurrences in each interval can vary from zero to infinity.
The expected number of occurrences must hold constant throughout the
experiment.
Examples of Poisson-type situations include the following:

1. Number of hazardous waste sites per county in the United States

2. Number of sewing flaws per pair of cloths during production

3. Number of times a tire blows on a commercial airplane per week

 Poisson Distribution
• Probability function

P( X )  
X 
e for X  0,1, 2,3,...
X!
where :
  long run average
e  2.718282... (the base of natural logarithms)

 Mean value  Variance  Standard deviation

  
 Example:1
Bank customers arrive randomly on weekday afternoons at an average of 3.2
customers every 4 minutes. What is the probability of having
(a) 8 customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?
(b) 9 customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?
(c) 10 customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?

Solution:l λ = 3.2 customers/4 minutes

 Example:2

A bank has an average random arrival rate of 3.2 customers every 4 minutes.
What is the probability of getting exactly 10 customers during an 8-minute
interval?
Solution:l λ = 3.2 customers/ 4 minutes
λ = 6.4 customers/ 8 minutes
 Approximating Binomial Problems by
the Poisson Distribution

Binomial problems with large sample sizes and small values of p, which then
generate rare events, are potential candidates for use of the Poisson
distribution.

As a rule of thumb, if n > 20 and n * p > 7, the approximation is close enough

to use the Poisson distribution for binomial problems.
EXAMPLE:3
Q. Suppose the probability of a bank making a mistake in processing a deposit
is .0003. If 10,000 deposits (n) are audited, what is the probability that more
than 6 mistakes were made in processing deposits?
 Practice Problems:1

If a real estate office sells 1.6 houses on an average weekday and sales of
houses on weekdays are Poisson distributed, what is the probability of selling
exactly 4 houses in one day?

(a) What is the probability of selling no houses in one day?

(b) What is the probability of selling more than five houses in a day?
(c) What is the probability of selling 10 or more houses in a day?
(d) What is the probability of selling exactly 4 houses in two days?
 Practice Problems:2

On Monday mornings, the First National Bank only has one teller window open for deposits
and withdrawals. Experience has shown that the average number of arriving customers in a
four-minute interval on Monday mornings is 2.8, and each teller can serve more than that
number efficiently. These random arrivals at this bank on Monday mornings are Poisson
distributed.

 What is the probability that on a Monday morning exactly six customers will arrive in a four-
minute interval?
 What is the probability that no one will arrive at the bank to make a deposit or withdrawal
during a four-minute interval?