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Larson/Farber 4th ed 1
Chapter Outline
Larson/Farber 4th ed 2
Section 4.1
Probability Distributions
Larson/Farber 4th ed 3
Section 4.1 Objectives
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Random Variables
Random Variable
• Represents a numerical value associated with each
outcome of a probability distribution.
• Denoted by x
• Examples
x = Number of sales calls a salesperson makes in
one day.
x = Hours spent on sales calls in one day.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 5
Random Variables
Discrete Random Variable
• Has a finite or countable number of possible
outcomes that can be listed.
• Example
x = Number of sales calls a salesperson makes in
one day.
x
0 1 2 3 4 5
Larson/Farber 4th ed 6
Random Variables
Continuous Random Variable
• Has an uncountable number of possible outcomes,
represented by an interval on the number line.
• Example
x = Hours spent on sales calls in one day.
0 1 2 3 … 24
Larson/Farber 4th ed 7
Example: Random Variables
Solution:
Discrete random variable (The number of stocks
whose share price increases can be counted.)
x
0 1 2 3 … 30
Larson/Farber 4th ed 8
Example: Random Variables
0 1 2 3 … 32
Larson/Farber 4th ed 9
Discrete Probability Distributions
Discrete probability distribution
• Lists each possible value the random variable can
assume, together with its probability.
• Must satisfy the following conditions:
In Words In Symbols
1. The probability of each value of 0 P (x) 1
the discrete random variable is
between 0 and 1, inclusive.
2. The sum of all the probabilities is ΣP (x) = 1
1.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 10
Constructing a Discrete Probability
Distribution
Let x be a discrete random variable with possible
outcomes x1, x2, … , xn.
1. Make a frequency distribution for the possible
outcomes.
2. Find the sum of the frequencies.
3. Find the probability of each possible outcome by
dividing its frequency by the sum of the frequencies.
4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and
that the sum is 1.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 11
Example: Constructing a Discrete
Probability Distribution
An industrial psychologist administered a personality
inventory test for passive-aggressive traits to 150
employees. Individuals were given a score from 1 to 5,
where 1 was extremely passive and 5 extremely
aggressive. A score of 3 indicated Score, x Frequency, f
neither trait. Construct a 1 24
probability distribution for the 2 33
random variable x. Then graph the 3 42
distribution using a histogram. 4 30
5 21
Larson/Farber 4th ed 12
Solution: Constructing a Discrete
Probability Distribution
• Divide the frequency of each score by the total
number of individuals in the study to find the
probability for each value of the random variable.
24 33 42
P(1) 0.16 P(2) 0.22 P (3) 0.28
150 150 150
30 21
P(4) 0.20 P (5) 0.14
150 150
• Discrete probability distribution:
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.20 0.14
Larson/Farber 4th ed 13
Solution: Constructing a Discrete
Probability Distribution
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.20 0.14
Larson/Farber 4th ed 14
Solution: Constructing a Discrete
Probability Distribution
• Histogram
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Example: Finding the Mean
2 ( x ) 2 P ( x )
Larson/Farber 4th ed 18
Example: Finding the Variance and
Standard Deviation
The probability distribution for the personality
inventory test for passive-aggressive traits is given. Find
the variance and standard deviation. ( μ = 2.94)
x P(x)
1 0.16
2 0.22
3 0.28
4 0.20
5 0.14
Larson/Farber 4th ed 19
Solution: Finding the Variance and
Standard Deviation
Recall μ = 2.94
Variance:
σ2 = Σ(x – μ)2P(x) = 1.616
2
Standard Deviation: 1.616 1.3
Larson/Farber 4th ed 20
Expected Value
Larson/Farber 4th ed 21
Example: Finding an Expected Value
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Solution: Finding an Expected Value
Larson/Farber 4th ed 23
Solution: Finding an Expected Value
• Probability distribution for the possible gains
(outcomes)
Gain, x $498 $248 $148 $73 –$2
1 1 1 1 1496
P(x)
1500 1500 1500 1500 1500
E (x ) xP (x )
1 1 1 1 1496
$498 $248 $148 $73 ($2)
1500 1500 1500 1500 1500
$1.35
Larson/Farber 4th ed 25
Section 4.2
Binomial Distributions
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Section 4.2 Objectives
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Binomial Experiments
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Notation for Binomial Experiments
Symbol Description
n The number of times a trial is repeated
p = P(s) The probability of success in a single trial
q = P(F) The probability of failure in a single trial
(q = 1 – p)
x The random variable represents a count of
the number of successes in n trials:
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, … , n.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 29
Example: Binomial Experiments
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Solution: Binomial Experiments
Binomial Experiment
1. Each surgery represents a trial. There are eight
surgeries, and each one is independent of the others.
2. There are only two possible outcomes of interest for
each surgery: a success (S) or a failure (F).
3. The probability of a success, P(S), is 0.85 for each
surgery.
4. The random variable x counts the number of
successful surgeries.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 31
Solution: Binomial Experiments
Binomial Experiment
• n = 8 (number of trials)
• p = 0.85 (probability of success)
• q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.85 = 0.15 (probability of failure)
• x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 (number of successful
surgeries)
Larson/Farber 4th ed 32
Example: Binomial Experiments
Larson/Farber 4th ed 33
Solution: Binomial Experiments
Larson/Farber 4th ed 34
Binomial Probability Formula
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Example: Finding Binomial Probabilities
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Solution: Finding Binomial Probabilities
9
P(2 successful surgeries ) 3 0.422
64
Larson/Farber 4th ed 37
Solution: Finding Binomial Probabilities
Larson/Farber 4th ed 38
Binomial Probability Distribution
3
4
Use binomial probability formula to find probabilities.
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.016 0.141 0.422 0.422
Larson/Farber 4th ed 39
Example: Constructing a Binomial
Distribution
In a survey, workers in the U.S. were asked to name
their expected sources of retirement income. Seven
workers who participated in the survey are randomly
selected and asked whether they expect to rely on Social
Security for retirement
income. Create a binomial
probability distribution for
the number of workers who
respond yes.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 40
Solution: Constructing a Binomial
Distribution
• 25% of working Americans expect to rely on Social
Security for retirement income.
• n = 7, p = 0.25, q = 0.75, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
P(x = 0) = 7C0(0.25)0(0.75)7 = 1(0.25)0(0.75)7 ≈ 0.1335
P(x = 1) = 7C1(0.25)1(0.75)6 = 7(0.25)1(0.75)6 ≈ 0.3115
P(x = 2) = 7C2(0.25)2(0.75)5 = 21(0.25)2(0.75)5 ≈ 0.3115
P(x = 3) = 7C3(0.25)3(0.75)4 = 35(0.25)3(0.75)4 ≈ 0.1730
P(x = 4) = 7C4(0.25)4(0.75)3 = 35(0.25)4(0.75)3 ≈ 0.0577
P(x = 5) = 7C5(0.25)5(0.75)2 = 21(0.25)5(0.75)2 ≈ 0.0115
P(x = 6) = 7C6(0.25)6(0.75)1 = 7(0.25)6(0.75)1 ≈ 0.0013
P(x = 7) = 7C7(0.25)7(0.75)0 = 1(0.25)7(0.75)0 ≈ 0.0001
Larson/Farber 4th ed 41
Solution: Constructing a Binomial
Distribution
x P(x)
0 0.1335 All of the probabilities are between
1 0.3115 0 and 1 and the sum of the
2 0.3115 probabilities is 1.00001 ≈ 1.
3 0.1730
4 0.0577
5 0.0115
6 0.0013
7 0.0001
Larson/Farber 4th ed 42
Example: Finding Binomial Probabilities
Solution:
• n = 4, p = 0.41, q = 0.59
• At least two means two or more.
• Find the sum of P(2), P(3), and P(4).
Larson/Farber 4th ed 43
Solution: Finding Binomial Probabilities
Larson/Farber 4th ed 44
Example: Finding Binomial Probabilities
Using Technology
The results of a recent survey indicate that when
grilling, 59% of households in the United States use a
gas grill. If you randomly select 100 households, what
is the probability that exactly 65 households use a gas
grill? Use a technology tool to find the probability.
(Source: Greenfield Online for Weber-Stephens Products
Company)
Solution:
• Binomial with n = 100, p = 0.59, x = 65
Larson/Farber 4th ed 45
Solution: Finding Binomial Probabilities
Using Technology
From the displays, you can see that the probability that
exactly 65 households use a gas grill is about 0.04.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 46
Example: Finding Binomial Probabilities
Using a Table
About thirty percent of working adults spend less than
15 minutes each way commuting to their jobs. You
randomly select six working adults. What is the
probability that exactly three of them spend less than 15
minutes each way commuting to work? Use a table to
find the probability. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
Solution:
• Binomial with n = 6, p = 0.30, x = 3
Larson/Farber 4th ed 47
Solution: Finding Binomial Probabilities
Using a Table
• A portion of Table 2 is shown
Solution:
• n = 6, p = 0.59, q = 0.41
• Find the probability for each value of x
Larson/Farber 4th ed 49
Solution: Graphing a Binomial
Distribution
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(x) 0.005 0.041 0.148 0.283 0.306 0.176 0.042
Histogram:
Larson/Farber 4th ed 50
Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation
• Mean: μ = np
• Variance: σ2 = npq
Larson/Farber 4th ed 51
Example: Finding the Mean, Variance,
and Standard Deviation
In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, about 56% of the days in a
year are cloudy. Find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation for the number of cloudy days during the
month of June. Interpret the results and determine any
unusual values. (Source: National Climatic Data Center)
Larson/Farber 4th ed 52
Solution: Finding the Mean, Variance,
and Standard Deviation
Larson/Farber 4th ed 54
Section 4.3
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Section 4.3 Objectives
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Geometric Distribution
Geometric distribution
• A discrete probability distribution.
• Satisfies the following conditions
A trial is repeated until a success occurs.
The repeated trials are independent of each other.
The probability of success p is constant for each
trial.
• The probability that the first success will occur on
trial x is P(x) = p(q)x – 1, where q = 1 – p.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 57
Example: Geometric Distribution
Solution:
• P(sale on fourth or fifth call) = P(4) + P(5)
• Geometric with p = 0.23, q = 0.77, x = 4, 5
Larson/Farber 4th ed 58
Solution: Geometric Distribution
Larson/Farber 4th ed 59
Poisson Distribution
Poisson distribution
• A discrete probability distribution.
• Satisfies the following conditions
The experiment consists of counting the number of times
an event, x, occurs in a given interval. The interval can
be an interval of time, area, or volume.
The probability of the event occurring is the same for
each interval.
The number of occurrences in one interval is independent
of the number of occurrences in other intervals.
Larson/Farber 4th ed 60
Poisson Distribution
Poisson distribution
• Conditions continued:
The probability of the event occurring is the same for each
interval.
• The probability of exactly x occurrences in an interval is
x
P (x )
e where e 2.71818 and μ is the
x! mean number of occurrences
Larson/Farber 4th ed 61
Example: Poisson Distribution
Solution:
• Poisson with x = 4, μ = 3
3 4(2.71828)3
P (4) 0.168
4!
Larson/Farber 4th ed 62
Section 4.3 Summary
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