Discrete Probability

Distributions
Lesson Agenda
▪ distinguish between discrete and continuous random variables
▪ construct and graph a probability distribution
▪ find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a probability
distribution
▪ find the expected value of a probability distribution
random variable (x)≡ a numerical measure of
the outcome from a probability experiment

“random” because the outcome is determined by chance

Notation:
● capital letter , X the random variable
● small letter, x possible values of the random
variable.

A single die is cast

X = the number of pips showing
x = 1,2,3,4,5,6.
Discrete random variable
● has a finite or countable number of outcomes*
● (whole number values)
● usually counted data

Continuous random variable

● has an infinite number of possible values; not countable
● represented by intervals on a number line
● usually measured data
 Discrete? or Continuous?
State possible values for the random variable.
(a) The number of light bulbs that burn out in a room of 10
light bulbs in the next year.
(b) The number of leaves on a randomly selected oak tree.
(c) The length of time between calls to 911.
(d) A single die is cast. The number of pips showing on the
die.
Lesson Agenda
▪ distinguish between discrete and continuous random variables
▪ construct and graph a probability distribution
▪ find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a probability
distribution
▪ find the expected value of a probability distribution
Discrete Probability Distribution
A TABLE that lists each value of a discrete random variable and
the probability of its occurrence.

It must satisfy the following conditions:

1) 0 ≤ P(x) ≤ 1

2) Σ P(x) = 1

The graph of a discrete probability distribution is a relative

frequency histogram.
Is this a Discrete Probability Distribution?
Suppose there is a 40% chance of rain, each of the next three days.
What is the probability that it will rain NONE of the days? ONE of
the days? TWO of the days? ALL THREE days?
Remember, a DISTRIBUTION is a TABLE and can also be represented
with a histogram (if the variable is discrete).
Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution
• Make a frequency distribution for the possible outcomes
(x = x1, x2,… )
• Find the sum of the frequencies.
• Find the probability of each outcome by dividing its
frequency by the sum of frequencies
• Check that each probability is between 0 and 1, and that the
sum of all probabilities is 1.
Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution
An industrial psychologist administered a personality inventory test for passive-aggressive
traits to 150 employees. Each individual was given a score from 1 to 5, where 1 is extremely
passive and 5 is extremely aggressive. A score of 3 indicated neither trait.

Construct a probability distribution for the random variable, x. Then graph the distribution
using a histogram.
Score, x Frequency, f P(x)

1 24
2 33
3 42
4 30
5 21
Σ=
 Drawing a Relative Frequency Histogram
horizontal axis = x, value of the random
variable

vertical axis = P(x), the probability associated

with that value of the random variable.

Score, x Frequency, f P(x)

1 24 0.16
2 33 0.22
3 42 0.28
4 30 0.20
5 21 0.14
Σ = 150
Lesson Agenda
▪ distinguish between discrete and continuous random variables
▪ construct and graph a probability distribution
▪ find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a probability
distribution
▪ find the expected value of a probability distribution
…remember the STANDARD DEVIATION =√VARIANCE
 Mean of a Probability Distribution
Score, x Frequency, f P(x) x * P(x)

1 24 0.16
2 33 0.22
3 42 0.28
4 30 0.20
5 21 0.14
Σ = 150 Σ=
 About the mean…
▪ represents the “theoretical average” of a probability
experiment.
▪ can have a value that is NOT a possible outcome
▪ if enough trials were performed the mean of the
experiment would equal the mean of the random
variable
 Variance & Standard Deviation
of a Probability Distribution
Score, x Frequency, f P(x) x * P(x) x-μ (x - μ)2 (x - μ)2 *P(x)
1 24 0.16
2 33 0.22
3 42 0.28
4 30 0.20
5 21 0.14
Σ = 150 Σ= Σ=

MEAN VARIANCE
 Parameters of a Probability Distribution
Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the following
probability distribution which represents the number of DVDs a person
rents from a video store during a single visit.
The Mean of a Discrete Random Variable
The following data represent the number of DVDs rented by
100 randomly selected customers in a single visit. Compute
the mean number of DVDs rented.
Expected Value

NOTE: Although probabilities can never be negative, the

expected value can be negative, especially when used in
monetary applications.
Expected Value
At a raffle, 1500 tickets are sold at $2 each for four prizes of $500, $250,
$150, and $75. You buy one ticket. What is the expected value of your
gain?

Gain, x

Probability

x P(x)

An expected value of 0 means you break even.

A negative expected value means, on average, you lose.
 Identifying Significant Results with Probabilities:
● Significantly high number of successes: x successes among n trials is a significantly high
number of successes if the probability of x or more successes is 0.05 or less. That is, x is a
significantly high number of successes if P(x or more) ≤ 0.05*

● Significantly low number of successes: x successes among n trials is a significantly low

number of successes if the probability of x or fewer successes is 0.05 or less. That is, x is a
significantly low number of successes if P(x or fewer) ≤ 0.05*

*The value 0.05 is not absolutely rigid. Other values, such as 0.01, are sometimes used to determine
significance, depending on the context.
Challenge: Be a Better Bettor
You have $5 to place on a bet in the Golden Nugget casino in Las Vegas. You have narrowed your choice to one
of two bets:

Roulette: Bet on the number 7 in roulette.

Craps: Bet on the “pass line” in the dice game of craps.

a. If you bet $5 on the number 7 in roulette, the probability of losing $5 is 37/38 and the probability of
making a net gain of $175 is 1/38. (The prize is $180, including your $5 bet, so the net gain is $175.) Find
your expected value if you bet $5 on the number 7 in roulette.

b. If you bet $5 on the pass line in the dice game of craps, the probability of losing $5 is 251/495 and the
probability of making a net gain of $5 is 244/495. (If you bet $5 on the pass line and win, you are given
$10 that includes your bet, so the net gain is $5.) Find your expected value if you bet $5 on the pass line.

Which of the preceding two bets is better in the sense

of producing higher expected value?
Challenge: Be a Better Bettor

Event x P(x) x * P(x)

Lose
Win (net gain)
Total

Event x P(x) x * P(x)

Lose
Win (net gain)
Total
Is the NFL Overtime Coin-Toss Rule Fair?
Overtime in National Football League (NFL) football games begins
with a coin toss. The team winning this coin toss has the option of
receiving the ball or kicking the ball.