Professional Documents
Culture Documents
&
Future Pak-India
Conflict
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arising from the use of the information contained herein.
brasstacks@dsl.net.pk
1
Confidential Material: Not for public distribution, circulation or sale outside the BrassTacks
authorized end users.
The information in this document is furnished for informational use only. Great care has been
taken to maintain the accuracy of the information contained in this document. However,
neither BrassTacks nor the authors can be held responsible for errors or for any consequences
arising from the use of the information contained herein.
brasstacks@dsl.net.pk
2
4th GW, Indian Cold Start & Future Pak-India Conflict
Pakistan and India are in constant state of war against each other since the
last 63 years and vying at various levels due to incomplete and unjust division
of subcontinent's North Western region of Jammu and Kashmir. This clash
between two nuclear arch rivals is visible also at global level in political and
diplomatic spheres and on four occasions, since 1947, world has witnessed the
physical incarnation of this prolonged duel. Major wars erupted over Kashmir
in 1948 and 1965. Both times it was the dispute over Indian military and
political occupation of that Muslim majority State that turned into complete
wars later on. In 1971, India supported insurgencies and political chaos in
East Pakistan to make a physical incursion across the international borders to
attack and then dismember Eastern wing of the country. In 1986, both
countries came close to a war again. In 1999, both countries bitterly fought
over hills of Kargil almost leading to a high intensity nuclear war. In 2002,
another major standoff involving over a million armed troops was witnessed
by the world, almost to the brink of a regional holocaust. In 2008, after the
Mumbai attacks, both countries again came dangerously close to another war.
Countless border clashes over the Line of Control in Kashmir and across the
working boundary took place and now have become a routine. Anyone of
these can lead to a full scale war between two nuclear armed countries.
Though there is a military ceasefire right now but this constant state of
confrontation is pulsating, on all other axes –political, economic and
diplomatic –and has always been ruthless, sinister and noxious. For Pakistan,
it is a matter of survival with its sovereignty preserved. For India, it's part of
her long term hegemonic designs in the region. The fact of the matter is that
both countries cannot co-exist, despite all the public relations façade thrown
by politicians, diplomats and media unless all the outstanding issues get
resolved in a just manner. All others who do not accept this harsh truth are
devoid of historical and military reality.
1998 holds special significance in national defense as it was during this year
that Pakistan became a nuclear weapon state and got ultimate deterrence
denying its old adversary any political or military contrive like one Pakistan
faced in 1971, which culminated in secession of East Pakistan. Indians were
forced to change their operational strategy after Pakistan became a nuclear
weapon state. Despite adopting changes at strategic level the long term
objectives and the national security policy of India remained the same vis-à-
vis Pakistan.
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strategic, political and economic dynamics were also involved, one of the
issues of convergence of mutual interests was the fear monster of “Islamic
Terrorism” that made India and the US strategic partners in the 21st century.
India took full advantage of post 9/11 developments to up the ante further in
its drive against Pakistan and its nuclear program. The whole geo-political
and geo-strategic situation dramatically turned against Pakistan. Blame also
rest with Islamabad for not responding quickly and effectively to the changed
paradigms. Indians found their new bastion in Afghanistan, behind Pakistan's
back, from where they launched multiple rear area furtive operations in
Pakistan. Not only that this low intensity war and support to insurgencies
caused society and system failures in Pakistan, it also created a global
environment to justify declaring Pakistan a failed State, not worthy of having
nuclear weapons.
Pakistan armed forces are fighting against this menace since last 5 years. War
is still on but for the first time Pakistan army is managing to get the upper
hand in this conflict after a long and bloody slog. But Pakistan army, ISI and
the nation have paid a heavy price for these gains after taking severe hits by
an ostensibly hidden but ruthless and cunning enemy. After 1971, when
Indians had successfully orchestrated the ruthless Mukti Bahini terrorist
gangs in East Pakistan, RAW again managed to pull off another of their
bloody stunts by creating and launching the TTP through US occupied
Afghanistan. Pakistan has paid a high price of US invasion and occupation of
Afghanistan since 2001.
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Another incredible aspect of this Indian launched 4th generation war against
Pakistan is its timing. Terrorism and insurgencies started in Pakistan in
2004-05 and it was no coincidence that India introduced its future military
doctrine to attack and “Punish” Pakistan, for its “support to terrorism in
India”, during the same year. This military doctrine is the second part of the
Grand Indian policy, which itself is an articulation of a two prong strategy,
against Pakistan;
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Insurgencies in North and North Western provinces. These are
supported by Indian RAW from Afghanistan. TTP in FATA and BLA in
Baluchistan are creating mayhem and chaos by unleashing terrorism
and anarchy. Both insurgencies are completely heterogeneous in
tactics and pose diverse challenges for the security forces.
This frenzied situation presented foreign secret services like CIA, MI6
and RAW and private mercenaries like Blackwater (Xe Worldwide)
with an opportunity to establish their independent footprints in
Pakistan to carry out kidnappings, assassinations and sabotage
operations as well as eavesdropping and spying. The entire Drone
operations and subsequent assassinations are being conducted by CIA
and their mercenary contractors with impunity.
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Treaty, India built multiple dams on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir
region. Due to these illegal dams, India can block Pakistani waters or
release excessive waters into Pakistani rivers to cause destruction
through artificially created floods.
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Apart from politically motivated religious, secular and sectarian
terrorism, existing fault lines in the country's disintegrating political
system, like ethno-linguistic politics, are serving as catalyzing agents
for the enemy cause. Ethnicity and linguistic divide were re-stamped
on Pakistani society after 2008 elections which gave ANP and MQM a
new lease of political life. ANP has officially created ethnic rift in
NWFP by controversially renaming the province, thus isolating and
provoking the Hazara community. BLA activists are doing ethnic
cleansing of non-Baluch settlers in Baluchistan, forcing an exodus from
the province of these settlers. ANP, MQM and BLA are stoking
multiple ethnic fires in at least 3 provinces of the country.
These insurgencies and the various axes of 4GW have been launched to soften
up Pakistan by multiple hostile powers. While the Americans and the Israelis,
for now, are only seriously interested in denuclearizing Pakistan to remove all
immediate threats of an “Islamic Bomb” or other Muslim countries taking the
technology from Islamabad, Indians want to go further to annihilate Pakistan
as well in their dream of creating “Greater India” or “Akhand Bharat”. But
Indians cannot do it alone nor can it annihilate a nuclear armed Pakistan. On
their part, US and Israel cannot afford to let Pakistan keep its weapons, hence
the convergence of all these powers critical interests against Pakistan's
strategic weapons program. Most of the terrorism in Pakistan is remotely
controlled by these hostile entities from Afghanistan. Simultaneously, the
media of these nations' remains aggressive in creating this hype that
Pakistan's strategic nuclear weapons are not safe and are about to fall into the
hands of the terrorists, hence must be “secured” by international community.
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The Indian plan is to catch Pakistan off guard by launching multiple
incursions on Eastern border at a time when Pakistan would be too weak to
defend its frontiers against any physical assault due to internal conflicts and
insurgencies, chaos, mismanagement and total collapse of governance.
4th generation warfare and its various shreds have been discussed extensively
in previous issues of Brasstacks monthly security review. This report
examines the second phase of Grand Indian strategy i.e. the Cold Start (CS)
doctrine. First phase of this war is already in advanced stages through 4GW.
Here, we would examine how the future Pak-India direct high intensity
conflict would look like under the CS doctrine.
Right now, Indian army order of battle is constituted by 7 holding and 3 strike
corps, all deployed along Pakistan-India border.
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Serious flaws of Sundarji
doctrine were exposed during
this Indian military buildup in
2001-2002, which was the
largest military mobilization
against Pakistan since 1971;
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early stages if Pakistan had denied its cooperation with US in
Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan back in 2002.
Indian military top brass faced utter embarrassment and severe criticism
inside India by various Indian political and military commentators and
analysts on launching an ill-envisioned military plan. Former Indian army
chief, Shankar Roay Chudhary termed it as a “pointless gesture” while
journalist Praveen Swami called the operation Parakram as “arguably the
most ill-conceived maneuver in Indian military history”.
Coupled with coldblooded and ruthless ongoing 4th generation war initiated
against Pakistan, Cold Start doctrine poses a considerable threat to Pakistan's
national security in mid to long run. Any false flag terror attack in India would
be used as an excuse to execute Cold Start. It would be a surprise and “pre-
emptive' attack without any warning or declaration of war to decapitate
Pakistan's military and political leadership.
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Cold Start: Objectives, Components and Tactics
A whole new army command by the name of 'South Western Command' was
formed in 2005 under Cold Start. This command has had a pivot corps and a
strike corps assigned to it (X Pivot Corps, I Corps) with area of responsibility
including Punjab and Rajasthan. Previously these areas were covered by
Western command which now covers region between Pathankot and Jammu.
Headquarter is located at Jaipur and main purpose was to bolster strike
capabilities of Indian army in the Southern sectors. This command was
established to work in conjunction with Udhampur-based Northern
Command and Chandimandir-based Western Command.
India currently has 3 strike corps (I Corps, II Corps and XXI Corps). These
would be transformed into 8 IBGs under Cold Start doctrine giving Indian
army far more flexibility to launch multiple offensives at once on possible 8
different fronts. Each IBG would consist of mechanized infantry, artillery and
armour units. Each battle group would have close air support by Indian air
force to provide massive firepower against reinforced defensive deployments
of Pakistani army. Apart from this, Indian army gunships will provide cover
to advancing IBGs. To achieve this capability, Indian air force is inducting
multiple weapon systems in its inventory. To enhance its operational
effectiveness, Indian military has introduced a new joint ops paradigm in all
its arms; Army, Air Force and Navy.
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Every IBG would have its own mission objectives in a theatre of war and
would continue its operations until its military objectives were achieved. This
will give battle group commanders the autonomy to take and implement
decentralized decisions on their own without waiting for a word from the top
brass sitting deep inside India far from battle fields. Valuable time shall be
saved during fast changing dynamics of a particular battle ground. In order to
prevent Pakistan from deploying its nuclear weapons in retaliation, IBGs
would not engage civilian population in large urban centers. This would keep
a moral pressure on Pakistan to keep fighting a conventional war despite
having non-conventional capability. At least this is what Indians are hoping!
Basic task of IBGs, with Russian T-90 and T-72M1 tanks at their core, would
be to make shallow territorial gains by invading 50-80 km deep inside
Pakistan, mainly by out flanking heavily guarded cities like Lahore and
Sialkot.
During the WWII, French command and control centers were compromised
by German blitzkrieg in 1940 when German Panzer tank units penetrated
swiftly deep into French territory along multiple lines of advances, bypassing
defenses and strong points. Despite presence of large number of French
troops in the area, higher military leadership was paralyzed by this cunning
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German military maneuver. Consequently, France fell to Germans in a matter
of weeks. German generals like Rommel and Guderian made their name in
the history due to these attacks with armoured divisions across the Europe.
Indian army used similar tactics after facing stiff resistance from Pakistan
army in some sectors during 1971 Pak-India war in East Pakistan. Idea of Cold
Start revolves around similar tactics. This maneuver warfare of Indian
military would not only enable it to capture large areas of land but would put
Pakistan's military command and control infrastructure in similar
catastrophic situation which French faced, during WWII, by German
blitzkrieg operations.
This incursion will have strong air support by IAF (Indian Air Force). Apart
from assisting IBGs, IAF would carry out attacks on Pakistan army ground
installations, command and control infrastructure and formation on ground
to further accelerate the advances of IBGs. Indian air force is inducting all the
modern war planes, weapons, missiles, sensors and communications suits.
IAF has a clear advantage over its Pakistani counterpart and it is pursuing an
aggressive plan to induct high tech weapon systems to have a decisive
qualitative and numerical edge over PAF.
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For such a fast military maneuver it was essential to address some key
shortcomings in Indian military;
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arming its forces with offensive military hardware and induction of latest
C4I2 (Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence and
Information) systems for modernization of Indian command and control
infrastructure.
India surged its military budget by a staggering 21% in 2009 alone. India is
eyeing to spend $100 Billion till 2022 on weapon procurement alone. Current
procurement plan includes following systems for all three arms of Indian
military.
Army
Air Force
5th generation stealth fighter bomber (T-50) joint venture with Russia.
Light Combat Aircraft (LCA); Extensive foreign help from US, France
and Israel.
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Israeli made Phalcon AWACS system for Indian Air Force
Navy
Ambitious nuclear submarine project to build 15 SSBNs till 2020. First
one is already inducted.
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A Follow up order of 7 subs with ability to launch BrahMos cruise
missile.
P-8I Poseidon planes from US for naval reconnaissance and long range
maritime patrol.
Apart from all these formidable platforms and systems, US offers of state of
the art F-18 E/F fighter jets, Apache gunship helicopters, H-2D Hawkeye
AWACS systems are also on the table for India to take. Many agreements for
upgrading existing systems and joint ventures with other countries in areas
like training, exercises and military hardware manufacturing are underway.
Synergized joint ops by all the forces demand a reliable and secure means of
communication and information sharing in real time. Indian military is
enhancing its EW (Electronic Warfare), ECM (Electronic Counter Measures),
ECCM (Electronic Counter Counter Measures) capabilities. Israel and US are
helping India build these capabilities. Israeli Green Pine radars and Phalcon
AWACS along with US P-8I Poseidon planes would take Indian C4I2
(Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence and
Information) capabilities to a new level.
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but procuring these weapon systems is not the only area, critical for successful
execution of Cold Start, where Indians are working aggressively.
There are 3 critical areas of Cold Start to precisely estimate the level of
operational preparedness Indian army has achieved to execute it;
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Divya Astra(Divine Weapon, 2004): This war game was conducted in
March 2004 at Mahajan Firing Range in Rajasthan, 70 kilometers from the
international border. The purpose of this exercise was to test the ability of the
Indian Army's various combat arms to deliver integrated firepower in
conjunction with the air force. This was a 90 minute tactical battle scenario
which was designed to test the capability to penetrate fortified defenses by
mechanized attack supported by artillery and ground support aircraft.
Vajra Shakti (Thunder Power, 2005): Took place in May 2005 some 80
kilometers away from Pakistani borders on the plains of Jalandhar, Indian
Punjab. It was a ten-day long exercise with 25,000 Indian troops
participating. Troops belonged to Panther Infantry Division and the Flaming
Arrow Armoured Brigade of the XI Corps (Vajra Corps), one of the army's
pivot corps. This was first demonstration of previously defense-oriented
holding corps after their conversion into Pivot corps with new responsibilities
of limited offensive attack.
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Strike Corps participated. Exercises took place 100 kilometers away from
Pakistani border in Indian Punjab. II Strike Corps is main strike corps of
Indian army and constitutes 50% of Indian military firepower. This is the
corps which would be tasked for a thrust into Pakistan through Cholistan
area.
Ashwamedh( April 2007): Cold Start doctrine was again tested for the
fifth time in April 2007 in Rajasthan's Thar desert. Once again Indian strike
corps (I Strike Corp) took part in the exercise with its 25,000 troops along
with infantry fighting vehicles, main battle tanks, heavy artillery, and gunship
helicopters. It was described as test of the country's new “pro-active war
strategy.” The exercise was designed specifically to test how Indian strike
units will enhance their combat power utilizing advanced sensor networked
with weapons on ground in a multi prong attack.
Although the limited war strategy has moved beyond theoretical phase in
professional military circles but, based on the available evidence, it appears
that Cold Start remains within the experimental stage of development.
Widespread organizational changes, like converting strike corps into IBGs
and moving armour divisions closer to borders, required for full
implementation has not taken place yet and it will take a considerable time
before Indian army can reach there.
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Cold Start: The Geo-strategic Angle
Indians want to execute Cold Start with a strategically isolated Pakistan with
no military and economic aid from any regional power at least in the critical
first few days. Strategically, Pak-China military partnership is a major hurdle
in the execution of Indian Cold Start. Despite all the bravado of “two front
war” against Pakistan and China by former Indian army chief, Gen. Deepak
Kapoor, Indian military would find it extremely ambitious, even suicidal, to
take on Pakistan and China simultaneously.
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embassy in Beijing was without an ambassador to China for months. On the
other hand Indians were fast establishing economic and military ties with
China during the same time. India and China remained troubled neighbors
for decades but Pakistani foreign office never succeeded to exploit this
situation to its advantage. If it was not for Pakistan's military leadership,
current government would have already lost China as a strategic friend.
Pak-Iran ties were a source of strength for Pakistan in previous showdowns
between Pakistan and India. Sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shia in
Pakistan and Iran remains critical to damaging Pak-Iran relations. US also do
not want any warm relations between Pakistan and Iran. All Indian and US
assets including TTP and Jundullah are now aggressively busy in waging
sectarian wars in Pakistan and Iran. All these arrangements actually are
prequel of Cold Start episode.
Apart from trying to isolate Pakistan in the region, Indians are pressing hard
for securing a permanent seat in UN Security Council to get a decisive
political edge over Pakistan and China. Most unfortunate aspect of this Indian
ambition is that it has found Islamabad as an ally. This is an unimaginable
scenario that the Pakistani government is supporting India for a permanent
seat in UN Security Council. These decisions are going to compromise
national security and political interests of the country. By getting a permanent
seat in the UN, India would be in a position to veto every resolution
forwarded by Pakistan on issues like Kashmir.
Summarizing it all, Indian Cold Start would remain just an idea unless
following geo-strategic and geo political factors change in Indian favor;
2. Pak – Iran military and strategic ties. Iran can supply Pakistan with
critical energy resources in times of war. India, on the other hand, has
no such neighbor. This is why Pak-Iran relations are such a critical
imperative from Pakistan national security perspective.
4. Pakistan's close military ties with Gulf States and Indian dependence
on these for her energy needs. India will have to rely on its strategic
fuel reserves in a war with Pakistan. This is a big geographic drawback
for India which Pakistan would exploit during war by blocking Indian
fuel supplies from Gulf.
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5. Inability of Indian forces to dismember / capture Pakistan in a
conventional conflict.
Where would Cold Start be executed? This is the issue of critical interest for
Pakistani war planners. Though nothing can be said with certainty at this
stage, regional topography would play a decisive role in formation of Indian
IBGs and their operations. Pakistan's Eastern border stretches from glacier of
Siachen in North to quicksands of Rann of Kutch in South. This 2600km long
border has every kind of territory; mountain ranges, plains, deserts and
quicksand areas. Southern region mainly consists of Thar Desert and vast
muddy plains of Rann of Kutch and this terrain is not conducive for armour
or mechanized divisions but Thar Desert region is ideal for maneuver warfare.
This is precisely why both the countries are preparing for a conflict in this
area as well. Each country's army would desperately try to outflank the other.
Due to its very limited depth (average 300 miles), Pakistan is most vulnerable
to a flanking attack, particularly in Thar and Cholistan areas.
So, it would be prudent to assume that major thrust of Indian incursion would
be in the North, mainly Punjab and Upper Sindh. Cutting off Karachi by
destroying or capturing National Highway, by invading Ghotki and Sukkur
districts, and breaking into interior Sindh remains a lucrative target for the
Indians.
Indian initial aim would be to launch an attack using its 3 to 5 IBGs. Most
probable objective areas would be (1) Ravi-Chenab corridor and (2) Reti-
Rahim yar Khan-Kashmor complex, also known as soft belly of Pakistan.
Pakistan army would face a two-prong attack in Ravi-Chenab axis with one
IBG rolling along Jammu-Sailkot-Daska axis and another one across Ravi
(Narowal area) to link up with the first one. In second theatre, major thrust of
Indian incursion will be faced by Bahawalpur based XXXI corps of Pakistan
army. Indians might try to expand this theatre towards further North, by one
or two IBGs, to engage Multan based strike corps (II Corps) in a surprise
preemptive attack inside Pakistani border. Massive use of Indian air force
would also be a part of this action as there is a high concentration of Indian
forward air force bases across the border.
IBG invasions in Ravi-Satluj corridor will face a stiff resistance as both Lahore
and Kasur are very important cities. Pakistan army has massive concentration
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in this area. IBGs cannot engage themselves in long battles of attrition as it
will kill the blitzkrieg characteristics of speed and surprise.
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A Critical Look into Cold Start
Despite all its audacity and bravado by Indian military top brass, Cold Start has some
critical flaws. Indian army is nowhere near executing it as per its inception;
The clearest articulation of Pakistan's “red line” came from Lt. Gen.
Khalid Kidwai, former head of SPD, “General conditions under which
Pakistan would deploy its nuclear weapons include: India attacks
Pakistan and conquers a large part of its territory; India destroys a
large part of Pakistan's land or air forces; India blockades Pakistan in
an effort to strangle it economically; or India pushes Pakistan into a
state of political destabilization or creates large scale internal
subversion in the country.”
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In the realm of conventional warfare, Pakistan army has its own
operational doctrine of “offensive defense”, which seeks to respond to
an Indian attack with aggressive counter attacks on India. There is no
way to measure the amount of power Pakistan would imply while
defending against Indian attack and launching its own while executing
its offensive defense doctrine. Potentially, Pakistani response must be
more ruthless and powerful than Indian incursion, and its anticipated
reaction by Pakistan, to send back a strong military and political signal
to New Delhi and rest of the world, at the same time. Indians will
always remain ambiguous about a possible reaction by Pakistan.
Indian forces are not prepared to execute the entire Cold Start right
now and it would take them at least ten years to attain minimum
required level of preparedness for executing the entire plan. Cold Start
right now is in experimental stages. This fact was highlighted vividly
during post 26/11 scenario when Indian air force failed to launch any
surprise surgical strike inside Pakistan despite their attempts. Indian
military is busy in improving this doctrine and for that multiple war
games have been conducted.
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Indian air force, though inducting high
level weapons and combat aircraft
holds a very poor record of
maintenance. Indian air force has lost
hundreds of its combat aircraft and
pilots in attrition during the past
decade.
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necessary goods to implement Cold Start at its fullest. Right now, this
is a major deficiency of Indian army.
Pakistani Response
Despite many inherited tactical and strategic flaws in it, Cold Start was
perceived as a real threat by Pakistan army as it poses a considerable national
security challenge. Direct threats were made, in 2008, by then Indian military
chief Gen. Deepak Kapoor and head of Indian Training Command, Lt-General
A.S. Lamba of Indian preparation of a two-front war against China and
Pakistan concurrently. Indian politicians denied these but current buildup of
Indian military might is a clear indication that Cold Start is still a very clear
and present danger to Pakistan.
Since last two years, Pakistan army has enhanced its C4I2 (Command,
Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence and Information)
capabilities by inducting various net centric systems into its operations
and trainings. These systems were tested intensively during Azm-e-
Nau-3 exercises earlier this year. Noticeable fact here is that these
exercises were largest in the last 20 years (since Zarb-e-Momin 1989).
Some 50,000 troops took part in these exercises. Deterring Cold Start
was among key objectives of these war games. Pakistan army declared
2009 as a year of training in order to make units familiar with new
emerging military technologies and to devise new tactics where these
technologies would be applied in future conflicts.
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Pakistan army artillery guns fire during Azm-e-Nau 3
With their long stand-off ranges (60km,120km and 350km respectively) these
weapons provide PAF with excellent operational flexibility and lethality in its
air to ground operations against any invading enemy into Pakistan. PAF
fighters loaded with these weapons and flying in own skies would be a much
bigger challenge for invading Indian army units to cope with.
JF-17 Thunder project holds a significant importance in the sense that being a
self designed and self made fighter jet it would enable PAF to eliminate
numerical disparity vis-à-vis Indian air force. In all previous Pak-India
conflicts this numerical superiority of enemy remained a serious problem
for PAF.
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Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) Ra’ad
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On the axis of militancy, Indians are also losing ground and getting
desperate as Pakistan military is destroying Indian backed
insurgencies in FATA and Baluchistan. Window of opportunity for
Indians is closing fast now as they were banking too much on their 4th
generation war and subsequently US pressure on Pakistan for
“securing” Pakistan's strategic assets. This is not happening.
While PAF and Army remain aggressive in weapon procurement and training,
Pakistan Navy remains a matter of grave concern. After the arrival of this PPP
regime, Navy has delayed or perhaps cancelled inexplicably the procurement
of lethal German U-214 class submarines which were to be the spearhead of
any Pakistani sea defenses and were giving nightmares to the Indian Navy.
Despite extensive studies by SMAP (Submarine Acquisition and
Procurement) group of the Navy, which had recommended the new German
subs, the proposal was rejected by the government without any reason. No
new Subs have been inducted in the last 10 years while the French Agosta 90-
B subs are aging fast. Submarine force is the cutting edge of Navy. Right now,
there is something seriously wrong with it. Indians are aggressively
modernizing their submarine force while Pakistani submarine force is facing
serious crisis. In any future war with India, this criminal betrayal of national
security would cost the nation dearly. Pakistan Navy is the weakest link in the
three armed forces at the moment and Indians are aggressively cashing in on
the opportunity.
Recent Development
Recently, Indian military and political leadership has tried to conceal the
preparations of Cold Start behind the bravado of Indian military being
“defensive” in nature. But it was not very long ago when General Deepak
Kapoor's (former Indian army Chief) statement about Indian IBGs entering
into Pakistan in 72 to 96 hours created ripple effects in already turbulent
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Pakistan- India relations. Indian political leadership was quick to do damage
control. In November 2009, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in
Washington;
“Pakistan faces no threat whatsoever from our country and that is the stated
position of the Government of India”.
This statement means nothing keeping the Indian military buildup in mind.
Indian military's current and future procurement plans negates loudly the
rhetoric of peace by the Indian premier.
“There is nothing called 'Cold Start'. As part of our overall strategy we have
a number of contingencies and options, depending on what the aggressor
does. In the recent years, we have been improving our systems with respect
to mobilization, but our basic military posture is defensive,”
Though this statement was issued to divert world attention from Indian
military buildup and weaponization but even this statement gave the hint of
what Indian military is up to. Mobilization is the key in maneuver warfare to
implement doctrines like Cold Start. It was fast mobilization in Operation
Meghdoot in 1984 that enabled Indian military to capture strategically
important Sia La, Bilafond La, and Gyong La passes around Siachen glacier.
All three are still under Indian control.
Final Thoughts
Cold Start is a threat looming around the Eastern fronts but it is the situation
on the Western theatre which would decide the outcome of the war on
Eastern border. If Pakistan army remains engaged in a war on the Western
border, Indians would have a decisive edge in any future conflict. Pakistan's
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national security dilemma is multifaceted where the army is fighting a
ruthless war on internal front, holding both lines on Eastern and Western
theatres. The mission is made more difficult in the absence of any political
leadership or diplomatic vision and due to a confused media which does not
support the national security requirements of the era. It is necessary for
Pakistan to bring this internal menace to an end now, whose centre of gravity
lies in Afghanistan. US presence in Afghanistan is part of the problem and not
part of the solution for Pakistan. It seems clear that the fate of Cold Start
would also be decided in the gorges of Afghanistan. If Pakistan can close the
Western theatre and focus entirely on the Eastern front, Cold Start would
remain a non-starter. If India is not prepared to launch the Cold Start now,
the fact remains that Pakistan is also not prepared enough to face it yet.
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