Human Population and

Environment
 Syllabus Prescribed
Unit 7: Human Population and the Environment
• Population growth, variation among nations
• Population explosion – Family Welfare Program
• Environment and human health
• Human Rights
• Value Education
• HIV/AIDS
• Women and Child Welfare
• Role of Information Technology in Environmental and
human health
• Case studies.
 The issue of numbers!
We started 20th century with <2 billion people and ended it
with 6 billion and still counting
We may reach 8.9 billion by 2050 – virtually all increase in
the developing countries which are already densely
populated and straining to meet needs
In industrial countries population almost stopped growing –
have only 20% of world population but account for 2/3rd
world’s energy use and for creation of pressure on water,
forests, fisheries and other renewable resources
What will happen at 9 billion population with a greater
proportion striving to improve their standards of living and
catching up with the developed world
 The issue of numbers!

Population affects every environmental issue and it is

impossible to achieve sustainability until population
stability is achieved
Demographic transition – shift from high birth and death
dates to low birth and death rates – has brought
stable populations to the industrialized world
What should be done to bring the developing countries
through this transition and have stable population
 Human population expansion
Until the beginning of 1800s population increased slowly and
variably with periodic setbacks
In 1830 it reached 1 billion and took 100 years to reach 2
billion by 1930
Its next doubling was within 45 years (reached 3 billion by
1960 and 4 billion by 1975)
By 1999 it reached 6 billion (reached 5 billion by 1987) and
growing at the rate of 77 million per year
According to UN projections world population may pass 7
billion in 2013, 8 in 2028, 9 in 2052 and finally level off at
around 10 billion by end of 22nd century (declining fertility
rates are assumed)
 Why human population expanded
Slow and fluctuating population growth prior to 1800s
was due to
– Prevalence of fatal diseases (smallpox, diphtheria, measles
and scarlet fever)
– Epidemics of diseases (black plague, typhus, cholera, etc.)
– Famines
High reproductive rates were almost balanced by high mortality
After 1800s population began growing exponentially due
to
– Development of vaccination and immunization
– Starting of treatment of sewage and drinking water
– Discovery and use of antibiotics
– Improved nutrition
All these resulted in spectacular reductions in mortality rates
while birth rates remained high
 Why human population expanded
Population growth rate peaked at 2.1% per year during
1960s and then started declining due to
– Total fertility rate decline - in 1960s it was 5 and since then
declined to 2.8
– But absolute number addition peaked in 1980s at 87 million
per year and then started declining
Whether the earth can sustain the additional numbers
– Where will they live and how they are going to be fed,
clothed, housed, educated and otherwise taken care off
– Will enough energy and material resources be available
Tremendous differences among nations
World countries are divided into 3 economic categories
• High income, highly developed, industrialized nations
– 964 million population (2001)
– Per capita national income: >$9,206 (average: $26,710)
• Middle income, moderately developed countries
– 2.7 billion population
– Per capita national income: $745 to $9,205 ($1,850 average)
• Low income, developing countries like India
– Population 2.65 billion
– Per capita national income: <$745 ($430 average)
Developed countries and developing countries
(moderately developed and developing countries)
Tremendous differences among nations
Developed nations (with 16% population) control 81%
world’s wealth, while low income developing nations
(with 41% population) control only 3.4% wealth
– A difference of 62 to 1 – one should not forget about
disproportionate wealth distribution within a nation
– Tremendous difference between the poorest of the poorest
nation and the richest of the richest nation!
UNDP devised Human Poverty Index (HPI) on the
basis of life expectancy, literacy and living standards
for both low income and middle income nations
– Different criteria are used for HPI for the high income
countries
– Despite this 10-15% of the people in developed countries are
poor while the number is 45% in developing countries (1.2
billion live with <$1/day)
 Tremendous differences among
nations

In 2003, developed world population was growing at 0.1%/year

and adding one million to world population
• In developing countries it was growing at 1.6% rate and
adding 76 million (98% of world’s population growth)
Growth occurs when births outnumber deaths
• A total fertility rate of 2.0 can result in stable population
• Due to the following replacement level of fertility is 2.1 for
developed nations and higher for developing nations
– Infant and childhood mortality
– some women do not reproduce
 Tremendous differences among
nations
Fertility rate (2003) in developed nations is 1.5 – USA is
exception with fertility rate of 2.0
Fertility rate is still averages at 3.1 for developing
countries
Population of developing countries will continue to grow while
in developed countries it will stabilize/decline
– 98% of the future growth is expected in developing countries
– Developing countries’ share of population will rise from the
present 84% to 90% by 2075
 Problem of numbers

Expanding population sounds trouble for both

environment and people (poverty)
Populations of developing nations were rural &
sustainable (supported by subsistence farming &
natural ecosystems)
Population increase changed the situation
– Resulted in private ownership of land - specially in
countries where collective agriculture was practiced
– Land reforms unsuccessfully tried to tackle the problem
of inequities prevailed in land ownerships
 Problem of numbers
• Agriculture got intensified and traditional subsistence
farming is replaced by unsustainable modern agriculture
– land degradation, desertification and decreasing productivity
have been the consequences
• New lands (under natural ecosystems and not suitable for
agriculture) were unsuccessfully opened for agriculture
• People migrated to cities resulting in urban sprawl and
slums (dens for illicit activities and infested by malnutrition
and diseases like malaria and HIV/AIDS)
– Impoverished women and children in rural areas and street
children in cities
• Environmental refugees and migrations from civil wars
and ethnic prosecution are on increase
 Problems in addition to numbers
IPAT formula to account for human factors contributing
to environmental pollution and depletion of resources
• By Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren
• Environmental impacts (I) depend on 3 factors: population
(P), affluence (A) and technology (T)
I=PxAxT
High level of technology and affluent life styles of
industrialized countries caused very large impact
despite small number
• An average American places 20 times more demand on
earth’s resources than an average Bangladeshi
• Major world pollution problems (depletion of ozone layer,
global climate change and accumulation of toxic wastes) are
due to the affluent life styles
• US with 5% of world population is responsible for 24% of the
GHG emissions
 Problems in addition to numbers
Consumption, affluence, damaging technologies and rapidly
increasing wastes need addressing for sustainability
Practicing environmental stewardship can moderate to a large
extent the environmental impacts
– Attention to wildlife conservation, pollution control, energy
conservation and efficiency, recycling, etc.
IPAT formula might be modified to
I = (PAT)/S
S is stewardly concern and practice
Sustainability demands addressing:
– Population (must stabilize)
– Consumption (must decrease)
– Stewardly action (must increase) – use of technology
appropriately is needed
 Problem of Affluence
Affluence sounds trouble for the environment and for
the people from developing countries
Wealthy countries consume most of the resources
(mostly from developing countries)
– globalization added fire to this
– lead in per capita consumption of most commodities
• World’s wealthy 20% population is responsible for
86% of consumption and 80% of world trade
– USA with 5% of population generates 24% of CO2
• Affluence enables these to cleanup their own
immediate environment by transferring wastes and
polluting activities beyond their boundaries
 Problem of Affluence
Because of affordability developed countries could
• Conserve and protect their local environment and natural
ecosystems from pollution and degradation
• Protect their agricultural and industrial systems
• Ensure better health to their populations by safe drinking
water, sanitation and waste management
Aging populations of wealthy countries increased the
demand for immigrated younger workers
• Perception of improved well-being is luring people from
developing countries to migrate to wealthy countries
• But suffer from the prejudice against foreigners
 Population profiles
A bar diagram showing proportion of males and females
at each age group for a given population
– It is a snapshot of population at a given time
– Each bar indicates present state of a cohort of babies
added to population during a given period in the past
– Periods of baby booms & busts can be identified, and
even baby boom echos can be identified
• Population profile can provide useful information for
planning for future demands of human populations
Population projections are made on the basis of
– Birth rates, death rates and migrations - assumptions
are made about future birth & death rates and about
migrations and used
– Current population profiles
 Life tables
Mortality and natality varies greatly with age
Complete picture of mortality patterns in a population can be
shown by life tables
– Gives number out of a given population (1000) survive after
regular time intervals
– Age specific natality (offspring per female during the age
interval) and male-female ratio for different age intervals can
also be added to these tables
Life tables includes following columns:
– Age intervals
– Number of deaths in the age interval from the 1000
individuals born
– Number surviving at the beginning of the interval from the
1000 individuals born
Using the information of the life tables one can find out net
reproductive rate of the population
 Survivorship Curves
Plotting the number surviving at the beginning of each age
interval against age on a semilog plot gives this curve
These for humans are convex (death rate is low until near
the end of the life span)
Shape of the survivorship curve is an indication of status of
the population
– Denser population have more concave curves
– Poor public health services, poor drinking water and
sanitation conditions make initial leg of the curve concave
– Environmental pollution and stressed environment
deteriorate the quality of life for individual and maximum or
physiological longevity decreases
Population projections for developed countries
– Graying of the population (less than 20% are <15 years age)
– Declining population – Italy is example and whole Europe is
on the trajectory of population decline
– May face migration crisis – for maintaining the aging
population immigration levels will have to be risen
Population projections for developing countries
– Except in china (1.7) fertility rates are high (3.5)
– Population profiles have pyramid shape
– Population momentum is the characteristic - Population will
continue to grow for few more decades even after the fertility
rate is brought to replacement levels
– Population is exceedingly young (40-50% is below 15 years
age)
– Population growth can easily cancel out the economic
development efforts
 Demographic transitions
Demographic transition from primitive population stability to
modern population stability is happening in developed countries
• There is need to ensure that this transition happens in
developing countries also
Primitive population stability of high birth rates were offset by high
infant and childhood mortality has transitioned to a modern
population stability of low infant and childhood mortality are
balanced by low birth rates
• Epidemiologic transition: During primitive population stability
CDR was high (>40) - receding fatal diseases, epidemics and
famines reduced CDR to ~11 - now most people in developed
countries die from cancer, cardiovascular diseases and other
degenerative diseases
• Fertility transition: CBR in the developed countries declined
from a high of 40-50 during primitive population stability to 8-12
of the modern population stability due to industrialization,
economic development and social modernization
Economic development and social modernization has been
observed to bring about the desired demographic transition
 Demographic transitions
Demographic transition includes four phases
• Phase-1: phase primitive population stability with high
CBR offset by high CDR
• Phase-2: phase of declining CDR but high CBR and
accelerating population growth
• Phase-3: phase of declining CBR and decreasing
rate of population growth
• Phase-4: phase of modern population stability
characterized by low CDR and CBR
 Demographic transitions
Epidemiologic and fertility transitions did not occur at the
same time – latter was delayed by a few decades and
resulted in rapid population growth
Developed countries already entered into phase-4 while
developing countries are still stranded in the mid phases
(phase-2 & 3)
Population doubling time for developing countries is 37 years
while it is 700 years for the developed countries and
global average is 54 years
For India it is 41 years and for Germany and Italy it is can not
be defined (declining population)
Pace of transition is not same for all developing countries
and pace of edidemiologic transition is not same as that of
fertility transition
 Demographic transitions
Some believe that speeding up of economic growth can
hasten demographic transition
• Economic growth did not happen over night
– Economic growth in developed countries could become
possible by migrations, colonialism and industrialization
– For many developing countries it has been very slow
– In many countries population growth & growing resource
demands are not allowing economic growth
• Affluent life styles of developed nations can be absurd and
stressing on biosphere in the case of developing nations
• Demographic transition only showed correlation with
economic growth but the latter is not a necessary condition
for the former
– Kerala state is best example
 The case of India
Since Independence India experienced tripling of its
population and its population is currently growing at 18
million/year rate
– Fertility rate is 3.2
– Infant mortality is 69/1000
– Average life expectancy is 63 years
– Caught in the middle stages of demographic transition
Annual per capita income is $480
– 1/3rd of the population is below the poverty line
– 50% of its children are undernourished
– 50% of adults in India are illiterate
– Economic growth can possibly not be the strategy for
demographic transition
 The case of Kerala
Fast moving towards modern stability phase of
demographic transition
– Fertility rate is 1.8 (3.2)
– Infant mortality is 12/1000 (69/1000)
– Average life expectancy is 71 years (63 years)
– Literacy rate is 95% (50%)
Kerala is a poor state by every economic measurement
– Despite it achieved the fertility rate drop in just 2
decades
– Demographic transition has not been through economic
growth, but through social modernization
Strong public commitments to health care and education
relatively equitable land distribution
efficient food distribution
disappearance of cast system
 Realizing demographic transition
without getting trapped in poverty
Poverty and development are threats to the environmental
health and not allowing sustainable development
Population growth must be dealt with for making progress in
reducing poverty and for economic development
Concentrating on economic development for demographic
transition may work if it is linked with reduction of poverty
With declining birth rates (nations of phase-3 transition),
working age population (15-65 years age group) increases
and dependency ratio declines
Nations can use this temporary 1 time window of opportunity
for economic growth without trapping in poverty
South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brazil exploited this
opportunity and achieving demographic transition
Can the South Asian nations (India) which are entering into
this window of opportunity, exploit this opportunity
 High fertility and poverty are linked
Poverty-environmental degradation-high fertility rates
drive one another in a vicious cycle
Poor in developing countries have larger families due to
• Securing one’s old age
• High infant and childhood mortality
• Considering children as economic asset (helping hands)
• Not giving importance to (specially girl) child education
– (not considered necessary in the subsistence agriculture
society and schooling as economic liability)
• Status of women
– (discouraged or barred from obtaining high education,
pursuing many careers and owning business or land)
• Non-availability of contraceptives (if not too expensive)
– women want to delay next child or do not want any more
– 12% increase in conceptive use translates into one less child
Alternatives to economic development
for achieving demographic transition
Industrialization and economic reduced fertility rates through
• Increasing the cost of raising children
• Providing pensions and social security system for old age
• Creating educational and career opportunities for women
• Providing free and unrestricted access to inexpensive
contraceptives
• Ensuring adequate health care that lowered infant and
childhood mortality
Relatively older age marriages also reduced fertility rates
If all these contributing factors can be ensured by means
other than economic development desired demographical
transition can be achieved as achieved in Kerala
 Social modernization: a new direction
for demographic transition
For demographic transition developing nations should
place emphasis on
– Improving education (specially literacy – to read, write and
do simple calculations, and education of girls and women)
– Improving health (specially lowering infant and child
mortality) – good nutrition and hygiene
– Making family planning accessible
– Enhancing income through employment opportunities
– Improving resource management and reversing
environmental degradation
 Improving education

Refers to basic literacy (learning to read, write and do simple

calculations)
An important component of wealth of a nation
– Empowers people with ability to understand information from
print on various economic and social aspects
Though very important, women education is considered not
important in developing countries
– Women bear children and provide nutrition, childcare,
hygiene and early education
– Illiteracy is very high among poor women (50-70%)
 Improving education

In view of HIV/AIDS and other STDs, premarital sex,

unplanned pregnancies, births outside the wedlock,
unsafe abortions sex education is considered must
Investing in children education returns great dividends
– In 1960 South Korea and Pakistan had same population
growth (2.6%) but different school enrolments (94 & 30%)
– In 25 years it resulted in Korea’s economic growth 3 times to
Pakistan’s and population growth just 0.8% (against 2.1%)
Expanding population is making school systems and
transporting systems overwhelming
 Improving health
Refers to basics nutrition & hygiene to reduce gap between
developing and developed nations in infant mortality
– 64/1000 against 7/1000
• Rural health through rural health centers is desired
• Focus should be on women’s reproductive health and
infant health
Women’s reproductive health services should focus on
– Prenatal care, safe child birth and post natal care
– Information and services pertaining to contraception
– Sex education – specially to adolescents
– Prevention and treatment of STDs
– Abortion services and care afterwards
– Elimination of violence against women, sexual traficking, etc.
– Additional health services – diagnosis and treatment for
diseases like breast cancer and reproductive tract cancer
 Family Planning
Critical component of women’s reproductive health care
Family planning agencies enable people to plan their family
size through counseling and educating people
– regarding human reproduction, hazards of STDs and
benefits and risks of various contraceptive techniques
– on achieving best possible pre and post natal health for
mother and child
– to avoid high risk pregnancies (pregnancies of too young
and too old women and pregnancies that closely follow a
previous one)
• help people to avoid unwanted pregnancies (abortions are
discouraged for use to avoid the unwanted child
• Provide contraceptives and treatment after instructing
about all the alternatives
 Family Planning
Goal is to ensure that all those who want/need reproductive
health services are actually have access
– In developing countries the unmet needs of reproductive
health services range between 7-50%
– 150 million women do not have access - their plans to space
children and to limiting family size are affected
Countries implemented effective FP experienced most rapid
decline in fertility rate (population growth in Thailand is
reduced from 3.1% in 1971 to current 0.8%)
Poor depend on family planning agencies for information on
contraceptives and related materials and for treatment
Family planning agencies are supported by a combination of
donations, government funding and client payments
 Family Planning
According to WHO
– 210 million become pregnant each year and 46 million of
these resort abortion and 20 million are unsafe
– 80,000 women (95% of these from developing countries) die
from unsafe abortions
Lack of family planning education and services result in more
unplanned pregnancies and recourse to abortions
– Emergency contraception methods (preventing pregnancies
shortly after unprotected sex) and non-surgical alternatives
to early abortions are quite effective
‘Planned Parenthood’ is regarded as the best known family
planning agency of the world and UNFPA is another
– UNFPA combines family planning services with maternal
and child health care and emphasizes expansion of services
to rural and marginal urban areas
 Employment and Income
Employment and income at household level, specially of
poor, is important for brining down fertility rate
• Poor have trouble in getting start-up capital - the poor and
women are considered as high credit risks
– Our banking systems disfavour microlones over short
periods
– Women are denied credit because of gender discrimination
– When women borrow money beneficiaries are the children
and the household
• Grameen Bank (Bangladesh) of Muhammad Yunus
provides microloans (<$67) for short-term
• Oxfam and Freedom from Hunger have adopted the
concept of the microlending of the Grameen Bank
– Freedom from Hunger combines lending with problem
solving education (Credit with Education Program)
 Improving resource management and
reversing environmental degradation
Poor depend on local ecosystems (forests, etc.), natural
resources (water, land, etc.) and on marginal lands of high
ecological sensitivity for living
– 2 billion people depend on biomass fuels gathered from
natural areas for meeting cooking and heating needs
Proper management of local ecosystems and natural
resources and ensuring legitimate access to the local poor
communities are essential for reducing fertility rates
– Living standards of the poor can be raised
– Reversal of environmental degradation and resource
conservation can be ensured
Empowering the poor to manage the local community owned
(public or government) lands and resources is important