One of the interesting things about commodities is their adherence to ³time cycles,´ meaning they tend to cyclically bottom
in a periodic way. The most common cycles are 8 or 9 year cycles which are evident in several different commodities.
Indeed, there¶s good analysis that suggests a 16-18 year cycle for Real Estate. So, it¶s worth noting that Copper also
exhibits some cyclicality. Notice the way it tends reach cyclical lows every 8 years. It also appears that there is a more
pronounced 16 year cycle. Time Cycle analysis does r
call the ³tops´ of cycles--it¶s only good for giving ideas about
bottoming periods. It looks like we won¶t get our next major bottom (G
 
j until Late 2017. Both the smaller
and larger degree cycles will be pointing ³downward´ after 2013, so expect hard deflationary forces on Copper from 2013
to 2017. Between now and 2013, though, copper is in a bit of a ³no man¶s land´ in terms of cycle analysis.

°



°

 °

 °

 °



|

  
   ! 
One of the things about longer term Commodities Charts is that they¶re a series of ³corrections,´ or ABC patterns. It makes them
much different than the Stock Market, which can ³grow.´ Commodities tend to just correct from one emotional extreme to another.
Copper has taken some ³body blows´ recently and is now slipping below psychological support at $4.00. One of the reasons it¶s
difficult for me to get bearish, though, is the ³look´ of the move up from 2008/9 lows. I can only see three waves up.
So, my bias to label this current decline as part of a Wave ³4´ which must hold above $3.47.  
The ³bad´ news for Copper bulls is that the Wave ³1´ was µextended,¶ which means that the
³5´
Wave ³5´ will be the smallest leg, so only a marginally higher high Copper. ³3´
³b´
| c

a
b ³1´

³4´
a

b
³2´

c
³a´

³c´
"

|

  
  #
! 
This is my best accounting of the price action up from the $2.72 low. The move down from the $4.65 highs appears more ³corrective´
in nature. Highlighted below would be various support levels for bulls to consider. $3.92 (38.2%j appears to be in jeopardy, but the
$3.45-$3.68 zone represents a decent risk/reward buying opportunity for traders.

$'&
5

(3j
(bj -b-

(aj
(4j

(cj
-3- (1j -a-

-c-
(2j
-1- $(&
-4-
3

-2-

4
1

$%&

|

  
)
*   
This represents my first attempt to label the longer term Wave development in
Silver. We appear to be in a Wave -V- that has yet to conclude. The reason
it looks unfinished is the nature of the waves up from the Wave -IV- conclusion + ,
+|, (See Next Pagej. -V-

-X-
- III - - IV -

-I-
-A-
-X-
- II -

-W-
-B- -Z-
-Y- +",

|

  
)
*  
While this Wave -IV- count might a bit controversial in that I¶m calling it a ³Neely Diametric,´ it¶s difficult to see another
count. All the price action from 2006 highs to late 2010 was highly ³corrective´ in nature. The final (Gj wave was a
³triangle´ which explains the explosive nature of the move once it concluded.. From the (Gj conclusion, there are only
three observable waves. The Weekly candlestick is the one of the UGLIEST ever seen, so this is  .
not a ³comfortable´ count at all. Though, an initial ³a´ wave down of a Wave (IVj would be a good (Vj
explanation for the violence of last week¶s price action. The Bottom Line for this wave count ( III j
is that the Wave (Ij peak MUST hold. A break below $30/oz would mean the Wave -IV- ³b´
concluded earlier and that a major Wave concluded near $50/oz. ³d´

  



   
     (Ij
( IV j
  
    r ³a´
³c´


( II j
(Dj
(Fj

 --- (Gj
(Bj
 -.
(Gj
- IV -
(ALTj
(Cj

(Aj
(Ej

› 

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 G 

|

  
 /
0   
1
 )
The gold message has been the same for a few months now. It¶s been chanelling
perfectly higher. I wouldn¶t own this market because it does have a ³mania/bubble´
feel to it. The bias is that there will be more money made in shorting gold once we   
have our ³blow off´ day then attempting to own gold waiting on a ³blow off´ top.
   
This current move is beginning to look and feel a big ³long in the tooth.´


-! #23%4

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 ! 
 

 


 

 

|

  
 /
0   
1
 )
While Silver was getting slaughtered last week, gold managed to remain within its
well defined trend channel that has been highlighted here for a few months now.
As was pointed out last week, this market is in a no-man¶s land. It¶s an ³Un-
Shortable´ market until it breaks down out of this channel. That still appears to be
around $1,425/oz.

å  
 


    


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|

  
 #-) |- |!-!/#-) |- |!-!/#-) |- 

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any

kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT *)5
representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author¶s "I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle
interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not I or A = Supercycle
trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions <I>or <A> = Cycle
opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author (Ij or (Aj = Intermediate
believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to "1³ or "a" = Minor
the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for 1 or a = Minute
information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is -1- or -a- = Minuette
not for everyone. (1j or (aj = Sub-minuette
[1] or [a] = Micro
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTCj [.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro
has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and
options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND
RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford
to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts and
your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should
understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by
thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is
required to give you.