S&P 500 ~ 120 Min.

with Weekly Support/Resistance

This market, at least in the very short term, has a little something everybody. The bounce from the 1260 area was impressive enough that it should set the stage for more sideways/higher price action. Daredevil bulls should consider 1305/1292 as first and second levels of resistance. My bias is to be neutral this market with an eye toward scale up selling into the 1344 -> 1365 zone.

REPRINTED from 6/10/2012

Left Shoulder?

Right Shoulder?

Head?

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. Head and Shoulder bottom?

Last week we correctly pointed out that the bounce from the lows was impressive enough that it should lead to more upside in the market. Thats why, despite our longer term bearish view of the market, we couldnt justify being short. Because of the potential for a five wave move down, we wanted to be sellers in the 1344-1365 zone. Given the glaring head and shoulder possibility that targets 1404, we must reconsider/readjust the idea of selling the S&P 500.

1404

Neckline

Right Shoulder? Left Shoulder?

Head

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily Line on Close

The orthodox Elliot Wave community is abuzz with the idea that we witnessed an impulsive five wave move down. On the intraday chart (60 min) its not that convincing because there are no clear impulsive formations on the three legs down. However, when we just pull back and look at the daily line on close, theres little to argue about. It does look like a true impulse down. The required elements are all present: 1) an extended third wave; 2) equality between the first and fifth waves; 3) alternation between the second and fourth waves--the second wave was larger and more complex than wave four. Id give this a 75% chance of being an impulsive wave formation from the top. This market will meet (2) serious resistance into 61.8% retracement regardless.

(1)

(4)

(3)
(5)

REPRINTED from 6/10/2012

Daily RSI Divergence was the harbinger of the hop.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance

Because of the potential five wave down setup highlighted on the previous page, we still want to take a stab at shorting the 61.8% retracement. We will target the 1357-1366 area as a sell zone at least on the first go. Bulls/longs should consider 1327 as a stop on any length. That would be a strong enough move below the neckline to suggest a failure of the head and shoulder bottom. In fact, a move back below 1327 would cause us to initiate shorts again on the S&P 500.

Neckline

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support

The risk/reward opportunity in the DXY strongly favors buying any pullbacks and staying long. The whole 81.65 - > 80.49 zone should be considered solid support, with 81.65 aligning with the breakout/neckline.
-e-

REPRINTED from 6/10/2012

-c-

-a-

-d-

-b-

Ignoring all the Wave parlance.At a minimum, we have a nice trend channel in place: higher highs and higher lows. Assume the trend is bullish until the trendline breaks.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support

Even though the idea of a large scale Head and Shoulder bottom is being threatened with the move back towards 81.65, risk/reward still favors buying this market in this zone. A break below the 61.8% retrace (80.49) or a break below the uptrend line should force an exit of any trading length.
-e-

-c-

-a-

-d-

-b-

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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