answers to common questions about the scienceof climate change
ClimateChange
Contents
Part I. Evidence for Human-Caused Climate Change
2
How do we know that Earth has warmed?
3
How do we know that greenhouse gases lead to warming?
4
How do we know that humans are causing greenhouse gases to increase?
6
How much are human activities heating Earth?
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How do we know the current warming trend isn’t caused by the Sun?
11
How do we know the current warming trend isn’t caused by natural cycles?
12
What other climate changes and impacts have been observed?
15
The Ice Ages
18
Part II. Warming, Climate Changes, and Impactsin the 21st Century and Beyond
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How do scientists project future climate change?
21
How will temperatures be affected?
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How is precipitation expected to change?
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How will sea ice and snow be affected?
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How will coastlines be affected?
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How will ecosystems be affected?
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How will agriculture and food production be affected?
29
Part III. Making Climate Choices
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How does science inform emissions choices?
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What are the choices for reducing greenhouse gas emissions?
32
What are the choices for preparing for the impacts of climate change?
34
Why take action if there are still uncertainties about the risks of climate change?
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Conclusion
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Just what is climate? Climate is commonly thought o as the expected weather conditionsat a given location over time. People know when they go to New York City in winter, theyshould take a coat. When they visit the Pacic Northwest, they take an umbrella. Climatecan be measured at many geographic scales—or example, cities, countries, or theentire globe—by such statistics as average temperatures, average number o rainy days,and the requency o droughts. Climate
change
reers to changes in these statisticsover years, decades, or even centuries.Enormous progress has been made in increasing our understanding o climate changeand its causes, and a clearer picture o current and uture impacts is emerging. Researchis also shedding light on actions that might be taken to limit the magnitude o climatechange and adapt to its impacts.This booklet is intended to help people understand what is known about climate change.First, it lays out the evidence that human activities, especially the burning o ossil uels,are responsible or much o the warming and related changes being observed aroundthe world. Second, it summarizes projections o uture climate changes and impactsexpected in this century and beyond. Finally, the booklet examines how science can helpinorm choices about managing and reducing the risks posed by climate change. Theinormation is based on a number o National Research Council reports (see inside backcover), each o which represents the consensus o experts who have reviewed hundreds o studies describing many years o accumulating evidence.
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Climate Change: Lines of Evidence
The National Research Council is pleased to present this booklet in 3 parts that (1) summarizes the current state of knowledge about climate change; (2) explains some impacts expected in this century and beyond; and (3) examines how science can help inform choices about managing and reducing the risks posed by climate change.
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