《国际贸易单证》课程

考核作业
2019－2020 学年第一学期

题目： Global Climate Change

姓 名： Uldana Zhunisbek
学 号：1820162045
班 级：Advanced Topics on International Trade
成 绩：Grade 4
 Global Climate Change

Introduction
The world is getting warmer, and humanity is largely responsible for this, experts say. But many
factors affecting climate change have not yet been studied, while others have not been studied at all.

Some of the driest places in Africa over the past 25 years have become even drier. Rare lakes
that bring water to people dry out. Sandy winds are intensifying. Rains stopped there back in the 1970s.
The problem of drinking water is becoming more acute. According to computer models, such areas will
continue to dry out and become completely unsuitable for life.

Coal mining is common throughout the planet. A huge amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) is
released into the atmosphere when coal is burned. As developing countries follow in the footsteps of
their industrial neighbors, CO2 will double during the 21st century. Most experts, studying the
complexity of the Earth’s climatic system, associate an increase in global temperature and future climate
changes with an increase in CO2 in the air.

Life has flourished on the planet for about four billion years. During this time, climate
fluctuations were radical, from the ice age - which lasted 10,000 years - to the era of rapid warming.
With each change, an indefinite number of species of life forms changed, developed and survived.
Others have weakened or simply become extinct.

Now many experts believe that humanity is endangering the global ecological system due to
global warming caused by the so-called greenhouse effect. The evaporation of civilization products in
the form of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), has delayed enough heat reflected from
the Earth’s surface so that the average temperature near the Earth’s surface rises by half a degree
Celsius during the 20th century. If this trend of modern industry continues, the climate system will
change everywhere - ice melting, rising sea levels, the destruction of plants by drought, the
transformation of areas into deserts, the movement of green areas.

But this may not be. Climate on the planet depends on a combination of many factors
interacting separately with each other and in complex ways that are not yet fully understood. It is
possible that the warming observed over the past century occurred due to natural fluctuations, despite
the fact that its speeds were significantly higher than those observed over the past ten centuries.
Moreover, computer simulations may be inaccurate.

However, in 1995, after many years of intensive study, the International Conference on Climate
Change sponsored by the United Nations tentatively concluded that "a lot of evidence suggests that the
impact of humanity on the global climate is enormous." The extent of these influences, experts say, is
unknown, since a key factor has not been determined, including the degree of influence of clouds and
oceans on changes in global temperature. It may take a dozen years or more additional research to rule
out these uncertainties. Meanwhile, much is already known. And although the specifics of the
circumstances of human economic activity remain unclear, our ability to change the composition of the

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atmosphere is undeniable.

1. REASONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

What is global climate change and why is it often called “global warming”?

We cannot but agree that the climate on Earth is changing and this is becoming a global problem
for all of humanity. The fact of global climate change is confirmed by scientific observations and is not
disputed by most scientists. Nevertheless, constant discussions are going on around this topic. Some use
the term "global warming" and make apocalyptic predictions. Others prophesy the onset of a new “ice
age” - and also make apocalyptic predictions. Still others consider climate change to be natural, and the
evidence on both sides of the inevitability of the catastrophic consequences of climate change is
controversial ... Let's try to figure it out ....

What evidence is there for climate change?

They are well known to everyone (this is already noticeable even without instruments): an
increase in global average temperature (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting
glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and more destructive typhoons and
hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia ... (see also “5 Climate Prophecies That Come
True”). And in some places, for example, in the Antarctic, there is a cooling.

If the climate has changed before, why now has it become a problem?

Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about the ice ages
(they are small and large), during the Great Flood, etc. According to geological data, the average world
temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average
temperature on Earth is about + 14 ° C and is still quite far from the maximum. So what are scientists,
heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that one more factor is added to
the natural causes of climate change, which have always been, anthropogenic (the result of human
activity), whose influence on climate change, according to some researchers, is becoming stronger every
year.

What are the causes of climate change?

The main driver of climate is the sun. For example, uneven heating of the earth's surface
(stronger at the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of
increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.

In addition, climate is affected by a change in the Earth’s orbit, its magnetic field, the size of
continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. All of these are natural causes of climate change. Until
recently, they, and only they, determined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term
climate cycles, such as ice ages. Solar and volcanic activity can explain half the temperature changes
before 1950 (solar activity leads to an increase in temperature, and volcanic activity to a decrease).

Recently, another natural factor has been added to natural factors - anthropogenic, i.e. caused
by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the strengthening of the greenhouse effect, whose
influence on climate change in the last two centuries is 8 times higher than the influence of changes in
solar activity.

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2. CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

The greenhouse effect is the delay in the Earth’s atmosphere of the planet’s thermal radiation.
The greenhouse effect was observed by any of us: in greenhouses or hotbeds, the temperature is always
higher than outside. The same thing is observed on a global scale: solar energy passing through the
atmosphere heats the Earth’s surface, but the thermal energy radiated by the Earth cannot escape into
space, since the Earth’s atmosphere delays it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short
light waves from the Sun to the Earth and retains long thermal (or infrared) waves emitted by the
Earth’s surface. There is a greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is due to the presence in the
atmosphere of the Earth of gases that have the ability to retain long waves. They are called
"greenhouse" or "greenhouse" gases.

Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small quantities (about 0.1%) since
its inception. This amount was enough to maintain the thermal balance of the Earth at a level suitable
for life due to the greenhouse effect. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect, if it weren’t for the
average temperature of the Earth’s surface would be 30 ° C less, i.e. not + 14 ° С, as it is now, but -17 ° С.
The natural greenhouse effect does not threaten either Earth or humanity, since the total amount of
greenhouse gases was maintained at the same level due to the circulation of nature, moreover, we owe
it to life.

But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an

increase in the greenhouse effect and a violation of the Earth's thermal balance. This is what happened
in the last two centuries of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, automobile exhausts, factory chimneys
and other sources of pollution created by mankind emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases per
year into the atmosphere.

What gases are called greenhouse gases?

The most famous and common greenhouse gases include water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4) and laughing gas or nitrous oxide (N2O). These are direct greenhouse gases. Most
of them formed are formed in the process of burning fossil fuels.

In addition, there are two more groups of direct greenhouse gases, these are halocarbons and
sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Their emissions into the atmosphere are associated with modern technologies
and industrial processes (electronics and refrigeration equipment). Their amount in the atmosphere is
very insignificant, but they influence them on the greenhouse effect (the so-called global warming
potential / GWP), tens of thousands of times stronger than CO2.

Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas responsible for more than 60% of the natural
greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in its concentration in the atmosphere has not yet been
noted. However, an increase in the Earth's temperature caused by other factors enhances the
evaporation of ocean water, which can lead to an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the
atmosphere and to an increase in the greenhouse effect. On the other hand, clouds in the atmosphere
reflect direct sunlight, which reduces the flow of energy to the Earth and, accordingly, reduces the
greenhouse effect.

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 Carbon dioxide is the best known of greenhouse gases. Natural sources of CO2 are volcanic
emissions, the vital activity of organisms. Anthropogenic sources are the burning of fossil fuels (including
forest fires), as well as a number of industrial processes (for example, the production of cement, glass).
Carbon dioxide, according to most researchers, is primarily responsible for global warming caused by the
“greenhouse effect”. Over two centuries of industrialization, the CO2 concentration has grown by more
than 30% and is correlated with a change in global average temperature.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. It is allocated due to a leak in the
development of coal and natural gas deposits, from pipelines, during biomass burning, in landfills (as an
integral part of biogas), as well as in agriculture (cattle breeding, rice growing), etc. Livestock, fertilizer,
coal burning and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. The amount of
methane in the atmosphere is small, but its greenhouse effect or global warming potential (GWP) is 21
times stronger than that of CO2.

Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas: its effect is 310 times stronger than
that of CO2, but it is contained in the atmosphere in very small quantities. It enters the atmosphere as a
result of the vital activity of plants and animals, as well as in the production and use of mineral
fertilizers, and in the work of chemical industry enterprises.

Halocarbons (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) are gases created to replace ozone-

depleting substances. Used mainly in refrigeration equipment. They have exceptionally high coefficients
of influence on the greenhouse effect: 140-11700 times higher than that of CO2. Their emissions
(emissions into the environment) are small, but they are growing rapidly.

Sulfur hexafluoride - its release into the atmosphere is associated with electronics and the
production of insulating materials. While it is small, but the volume is constantly increasing. The global
warming potential is 23,900 units.

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3. GLOBAL WARMING AND IMPACT ON HUMAN
Global warming is a gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet, caused by an
increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.

According to direct climate observations (temperature changes over the past two hundred
years), average temperatures on Earth have risen, and although the reasons for this increase are still the
subject of debate, one of the most widely discussed is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. The
anthropogenic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere violates the natural
heat balance of the planet, enhances the greenhouse effect, and as a result, causes global warming.

This process is slow and gradual. So, over the past 100 years, the average temperature of the
Earth has increased by only 1 ° C. It would seem a little. What then causes alarm to the world community
and forces the governments of many countries to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

Firstly, this turned out to be enough to cause the melting of polar ice and rising sea levels with
all the ensuing consequences. And secondly, some processes are easier to start than to stop. For
example, as a result of the melting of the permafrost of the subarctic, enormous amounts of methane
enter the atmosphere, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. And the desalination of the ocean
due to melting ice will cause a change in the warm Gulf Stream, which will affect the climate of Europe.
Thus, global warming will provoke changes, which, in turn, will accelerate climate change. We launched
a chain reaction ...

How strong is the human impact on global warming?

The idea of a significant contribution of mankind to the greenhouse effect (and hence global
warming) is supported by most governments, scientists, public organizations and the media, but so far it
is not a definitive truth. Some argue that: the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the
atmosphere since the pre-industrial period (since 1750) increased by 34% and 160%, respectively.
Moreover, she did not reach this level for hundreds of thousands of years. This is clearly due to
increased consumption of fuel resources and the development of industry. And confirmed by the
coincidence of the graph of the increase in carbon dioxide concentration with the graph of temperature
increase.

Others object: 50-60 times more carbon dioxide is dissolved in the surface layer of the oceans
than in the atmosphere. In comparison, human exposure is simply negligible. In addition, the ocean has
the ability to absorb CO2 and thereby compensates for human exposure.

Recently, however, more and more facts have appeared in favor of the influence of human
activities on global climate change. Here are just some of them:

1. the southern part of the oceans has lost its ability to absorb significant amounts of carbon dioxide,
and this will further accelerate global warming on the planet

2. the flow of heat entering the Earth from the Sun has been declining over the past five years, but
warming has not been observed on the earth, but warming ...

How much will the temperature rise?

According to some climate change scenarios, by 2100 the global average temperature may rise

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by 1.4 - 5.8 degrees Celsius - if steps are not taken to reduce greenhouse emissions into the atmosphere.
In addition, periods of hot weather can become longer and more extreme in temperature. Moreover,
the development of the situation will be very different depending on the region of the Earth, and these
differences are extremely difficult to predict. For example, for Europe, at first a not-so-long cooling
period is predicted due to a slowdown and a possible change in the Gulf Stream.

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4. CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL WARMING
Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and
penguins will be forced to change their habitats, as the polar ice will disappear. Many species of animals
and plants will also disappear, not having time to adapt to a rapidly changing habitat. 250 million years
ago, global warming killed three quarters of all life on Earth

Global warming will change the climate on a global scale. Climatic disasters are expected to
increase, floods due to hurricanes, desertification and reduction of summer rainfall by 15-20% in the
main agricultural areas, sea level and temperature increase, the boundaries of natural zones will move
to the north.

Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will cause the onset of a small ice age.
In the 19th century, the cause of such cooling was the eruption of volcanoes, in our century the reason
is already different - the desalination of the world's oceans as a result of melting glaciers

How will global warming affect a person?

In the short term: lack of drinking water, growing number of infectious diseases, problems in
agriculture due to droughts, growing number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought. The
most serious blow can be inflicted on the poorest countries, which are least responsible for exacerbating
this problem, and which are least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures, in the
end, can reverse everything that was achieved by the labor of previous generations.

Destruction of established and habitual farming systems under the influence of droughts,
irregular precipitation, etc. can really put about 600 million people on the brink of hunger By 2080, 1.8
billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, an environmental crisis
may occur due to melting glaciers and changes in precipitation.

An increase in temperature by 1.5-4.5 ° C will lead to an increase in ocean level by 40-120 cm

(according to some estimates, up to 5 meters). This means flooding of many small islands and floods in
coastal areas. In the flood-prone territories, there will be about 100 million inhabitants, more than 300
million people will be forced to migrate, some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands,
Denmark, part of Germany).

The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that the health of hundreds of millions of people
can be threatened by the spread of malaria (due to an increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded
areas), intestinal infections (due to a violation of the water supply and sewage systems), etc.

In the long run, this can lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar
problem when, after the ice age, the temperature rose sharply by 10 ° C, but it was this that led to the
creation of our civilization. Experts do not have accurate data on what the contribution of mankind to
the observed increase in temperatures on Earth and what kind of chain reaction can be. The exact
relationship between an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and an
increase in temperature is also unknown. This is one of the reasons that forecasts of temperature
changes are so different. And this gives food to skeptics: some scientists consider the problem of global
warming somewhat exaggerated, as well as data on the increase in average temperature on Earth.

Scientists do not have a single opinion on what the final balance of the positive and negative

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effects of climate change may be, and in what scenario the situation will develop further. A number of
scientists believe that some factors can weaken the effect of global warming: with increasing
temperatures, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere. Others believe that the possible negative effects of global climate change are
underestimated:

 Droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will occur more often,

 An increase in global ocean temperature also causes an increase in the strength of hurricanes,
 Glacier melting speed and rising sea levels will also be faster .... And this is confirmed by the
latest research.
 Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the forecasted 2 cm, the glacier
melting rate has increased 3 times (the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by 60-70 cm,
and the area of the melting ice of the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2005 alone).
 Perhaps human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete extinction, which could
result in several times greater sea level rise (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).
 Moreover, according to some reports, global warming can occur much faster than previously
thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the oceans.
 And finally, we must not forget that global warming may lead to global cooling.

However, whatever the scenario, everyone says that we should stop playing dangerous games with
the planet and reduce our impact on it. Better to overestimate danger than to underestimate it. It is
better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite your elbows later. He who is warned is armed.

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5. MEASURES REQUIRED TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARMING

The international community, recognizing the danger associated with the constant increase in
greenhouse gas emissions in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference on Environment and
Development, agreed to sign the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto (Japan), which obliges
industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from the 1990 level by 2008-2012,
including the European Union should reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% , USA - by 7%, Japan - by
6%. It is enough for Russia and Ukraine so that their emissions do not exceed the 1990 level, and 3
countries (Australia, Iceland and Norway) can even increase their emissions, because they have forests
that absorb CO2.

For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, it is necessary that it be ratified by states that
account for at least 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. To date, the protocol has been ratified by 161
countries of the world (more than 61% of global emissions). In Russia, the Kyoto Protocol was ratified in
2004. The USA and Australia became a notable exception, making a significant contribution to the
greenhouse effect, but refused to ratify the protocol. In 2007, a new protocol was signed in Bali,
expanding the list of measures that must be taken to reduce the anthropogenic impact on climate
change.

Here are some of them:

1. Reduce the burning of fossil fuels

Today, we get 80% of our energy from fossil fuels, the combustion of which is the main source of
greenhouse gases.

2. Make greater use of renewable energy.

Solar and wind energy, biomass and geothermal energy, tidal energy - today the use of alternative
energy sources is becoming a key factor for the long-term sustainable development of mankind.

3. Stop the destruction of ecosystems!

All attacks on untouched ecosystems must be stopped. Natural ecosystems absorb CO2 and are an
important element in maintaining the balance of CO2. This is especially true for forests. But in many
regions of the world, forests continue to be destroyed at a catastrophic rate.

4. Reduce energy losses in energy production and transportation

The transition from large-scale energy (hydropower plants, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants)
to small local power plants will reduce energy losses. When transporting energy over a long distance, up
to 50% of energy can be lost in transit!

5. Use new energy-efficient technologies in industry

At the moment, the efficiency of most technologies used is about 30%! It is necessary to introduce new
energy-efficient production technologies.

6. Reduce energy consumption in the construction and housing sectors.

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Regulations must be adopted that require the use of energy-efficient materials and technologies in the
construction of new buildings, which will reduce energy consumption in homes by several times.

7. New laws and incentives.

Laws must be enacted that impose increased taxes on enterprises that exceed CO2 emission limits and
provide for tax incentives for energy producers from renewable sources and energy-efficient goods.
Redirect financial flows to the development of precisely these technologies and industries.

8. New ways to move

Today, in large cities, motor vehicle emissions account for 60-80% of all emissions. It is necessary to
encourage the use of new environmentally friendly modes of transport, support public transport, and
develop infrastructure for cyclists.

9. Advocate and stimulate energy conservation and the careful use of natural resources by residents of
all countries

These measures will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries by 80% by 2050, and by
developing countries by 30% by 2030.

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CONCLUSION

Recently, the problem of the greenhouse effect has become more and more acute. The global
climate requires urgent action. Proof of this can be some of the consequences of the greenhouse effect,
which are already evident today. The lazy areas become even wetter. Continuous rains, which cause a
sharp increase in the level of rivers and lakes, occur more often. Spilling rivers flood the coastal
settlements, forcing residents to leave their homes, saving their lives.

Heavy rains took place in March 1997 in the United States. Many people died, the damage was
estimated at 400 million dollars. Such continuous precipitation is becoming more intense and caused by
global warming. Warm air may contain more moisture, and in the atmosphere of Europe there is already
much more moisture than it was 25 years ago. Where will the new rains fall? Experts say that areas
prone to flooding should be preparing for new disasters.

In contrast, the dry areas became even more arid. Droughts in the world are so intense that they
have not been observed for 69 years. Drought destroys corn fields in America. In 1998, corn, which
usually reaches two meters or more, has grown only to the waist of a person. However, despite these
natural warnings, mankind is not taking measures to reduce air emissions. If humanity continues to
behave so irresponsibly in relation to its planet, then it is not known what other disasters this will turn
into.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. World Health Organization (WHO), 10 Facts on Climate Change And Health, www.who.it

https://www.who.int/features/factfiles/climate_change/facts/en/

2. Drozdov O. A., Arapov P. P., Lugina K. M., Mosolova G. I. On the climate peculiarities during the
warming of the last centuries // Tez. doc. All-Russian. scientific conf. Kazan. 2000.S. 24-26;

3. Vishal Duggal, CLIMATE CHANGE, indiacelebrating.com

https://www.indiacelebrating.com/environmental-issues/climate-change/

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