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.
dxi
V

dt
xi

101

(2.8)

n , k ( k 5 )
. 492- .

34
,
. k l l 1 / 2 102

l l 1 / 2 ( ,
),
l l 1l 2 / 6 103.

,

. ,

x x n ,
f Tkb

f x , y x 3 ay 3 , f x , y x 2 y by 3

104

l l

l l 1l 2 2 l l 1l 2
l
6
6

(2.9)

a 105. k = 5 l 2 ( )
k 5

modal .
k 5
. ,

,
.
, ,
,
.

(k , l 1 c ,..., l c ).
, 11-32- .
104
.
105
Gilmore.R, Catastrophe Theory for Scientists and Engineers, 1981, Dover Edition, side 30.
102
103

35
,

.

, .

.

, y cx1 x ,

y cSin x ,

y cx 2 Sinx

.

4.669201609 (
) 106.
lim

K n K n 1
4.66916224
K n 1 K n

(2.10)

.
.
,
.
( Rk e )
.
, .107

106

i. .P, , , , 2000, 150-168.

ii. Friedr Vieweg and Sohn Braunschweig, Dynamic Systems and Fractals, Cambridge University Press, 1989,
side 46-49.
107
..., , , , 1985, 21-33.

36

.
108.



.
( c R k , k
)

, ( )
.
.
Vij
, ,
109
.
,
.
110
,
.


,
.
.
( ),
,
.
108

Gilmore.R, Catastrophe Theory for Scientists and Engineers, 1981, Dover Edition, side 51.
, 53-
110

, , .
109

37
.

.
.

() ,

)
, (n-1, n-2 )
(
, )
.

.

.

, ( )


, .
,
,
.


.

, ,
,
.

38
,

,
,

.
, 1982
. 2,3 dxi / dt F x, c, t - r
J0, L0, J 0 d / dt L0
J 0 x rx N x, r 0

(2.11)

J0 r-
111.
,
,

, .
( ,
)
.



,
.

.
det 2V / xi x j 0 ,
.
, ,

.

111

.., , ,
, , 1999, 76.

39

.
- .
() .


.
2.4-
112.
T11 dc T21
dt

(2.12)

T21

dc
dt

(2.13)

( ).
dc
T11
dt

(2.14)

.

.
,

.

(
).

.

112

1 , 2
T1 1 / 1 , T 2 / V / D , 1 , 2
1

, , V V X M V X m
, D .

40

(
. 2.4).
,
,
.
,
.

NM

Nd

NM

2.4.
,

. N

.


,

( 2.5).


.
,

41
,
.
2.5
)
(

).
)

2.6.

,
(
)

.
( ) .
.
,
,
.


. ,
i t
det Vij 0 ,
( ).
113.

113

Gilmore.R, Catastrophe Theory for Scientists and Engineers, 1981, Dover Edition, side 166-182.

42
, ,
,
, ,
,
, .
( 2.7).

x x y

y rx y xz

r 0

z bz xy

b0

(2.15)

f
x y
x
f
rx y xz
y
f
bz xy
z

(2.16)

2.7. a . (1000 )
.

divf lorenz 1 b 0

(2.17)

. ,
.
1
1
1
u x 2 rxy y 2 xyz bz 2
2
2
2

2.16

(2.18)

43

0,0,0

1-

br 1; br 1; r 1
br 1; br 1; r 1

2-
3-

. 2 3
.

2.16-

. :
0

Vij r z 1 x
y
x b

(2.19)

det Vij 2 xy 2 r z x 2

(2.20)

. 1- 0,0,0
Vij

x 0
y 0
z 0

r
0

1 0
0 b

(2.21)

r
0

1
0
0
b

0 1 b 1 , 2 1, 3 b
.
r +3 , r , 13.926
, 24.76-
.

44

( X_plot Y_plot Z_plot)

( X_plot Y_plot Z_plot)

( X_plot Y_plot Z_plot)

( X_plot Y_plot Z_plot)

2.8.
(100, 200,
300,
400,) 600, 1000,
1500,
3000,
5000
) Z_plot)
( X_plot
Y_plot
Z_plot
( X_plot
Y_plot
Z_plot
)
( X_plot Y_plot

( X_plot Y_plot Z_plot)

, ,
, (r, , b) . , ,
.
,
,
,

,
,
.
1. ,
2. ,
3. ,
4. ,
5. , ,
6. ,
7. ,
8. ,
9. ,

45
10.
114.

1.
,
2.
,
3.
4.
, .


(
),
.

114

,
, ,
.

46

3.1

,
,
.
, ,
1980- 115

. . (1986, 1987), .. (1988),

. (1991)
.
x

.




.


. . (1990), . . (1992)

,

115

, .

47
(i),
(ii), (iii),
116 (iv)
,

.
, 1970-
, 1990-
117.

,
. ,
, .
,
,
( 3.1).
3.1.

1. .

1867

-,

116

(
, , ).
117
nd
Romer.D, Advanced Macroeconomics, 2 edition, 2001, McGraw Hill/Irwin: NY, side 5.

48
2.

1946

3. .

1947

4. .

1956

5. ..

1995
,

-
,
-

2000

6. .

49
7. .,
.

2000

8. . 2000

-,

,

. :
118 ,
, ,


.
, . -

,
(
). ()
,
.

118

50
119.
,
.
,
, .
,

., . .
-
,
,
. -

.


.
, ,
, .
, ,
, , ,
, ,
. ,
, ,
, ,
, .
,
,
.
, ,

119

- .

51

ceteris paribus .120.
, ,

.
, ,
.

.
( )
,
.
.

3.2.

,
( 3.2).
., - ,
,, .. .
, ,
,
.
., ., . , .., .
.
3.2.
1.

120

.
,

.

52

.
2,

i.

ii. /

iii.

i.

ii.

iii.

iv. -
,
,
.
:

:
, ,
, ,
. ,

.
(

53

).

:

.
121.
122.

, .

.

, :
,
, , ,
.

. :
1.

2.

3.

,
i.

ii. -

123

121

Theo S.Eicher, Stephen J.Turnovsky Non Scale Models of Economic Growth, The Economic Journal, 109,
Blackwell Publishers, 394-415.
122
( ) ,

,
,
,
, , ,
.
123

(), , ,

54
4. 124.

.
124
( , )

55

4.1.
4.1.1. (1867)

.
125

.

,
,
.

(I), (II)

PT P1 P2

(4.1)

P1
2

(Ci), (Vi) (
K Ci Vi ).

,
, ,
126.

Ci, Vi mi -

125
126

.K, , I , 1999, 245-254- .

.K, , II , 1999, 438- .

56

Pi Ci Vi mi

(4.2)

( k Ci / Vi ) ,

( ci nci Ci , vi nvi Vi , nci nvi 1).

-
m1 m1' V1

(4.3)

. I m1 dc1 dv1 (
)


P1 c1 v1 m1 c1

1 m1'
c1
m'
c1 1 c1 1

k1
k1
k1

(4.4)

.
dc1

m1
1 k1

c1

(4.5)

C1 C 0

m1
1 k1

dc2 P1 c1 c 2 dc1

(4.6)
(4.7)

II I . I

I . II
.
I I II

, II
, 127.
II
dc 2 c 2 1 m1 bk1 / k1 C1 bt

(4.8)

( b m1 /1 k1 )

127

. I 0.5 (0 1) I II
.

57

C 2 1 m1 bk1 / k1 1 bC1 bt t C 2 0 t

(4.9)

1 m
2
P2 1
C2

k2

(4.10)

. ,
, I II

II
.
4.7
1 m1 '
m1 '
c1 c 2
dc 2 c1 1
c1

k1
1 k1

1 m1 ' m1 '
c1 c 2

k
1 k1
1

m1 '

(4.5) 1 k1

(4.11)

1 m1 '

dc 2
b c1 c 2
k

dc1 bc

(4.12)

.
c1 x, c 2 y

.
'

f 1 m1

bx y

y k1

f
bx
x

(4.13)

4.13
divf b 1

m1 '
1 k1

m1 '
1 k1

(4.14)

.
4.13
.

58
u

'

b 2 1 m1
1
x
b xy y 2

2
2
k1

(4.15)

xy 1 m'
1
b
k

1 m1'
b
k
1

(4.16)

1 m1'

det Vij b
b 0
k1

x 0, y 0

1
2

b
2

1, 2

1 b2 q b2

1 1
k1

u 1~
x 2 2 ~
y2
2
1 b

1 b
2


q b x

2
2
1 3b

2
1 b

1 3b
1 b
2


q b x

2
2

1 b 2 4q b 2

1 b 2 4q b 2
2q b

2q b

(4.17)

.
(4.21- )
u

1 m1 '
m1
1
c12

c1c 2 c 22

1 k1
21 k1
2
k1

m1

(4.18)

(), 1 2
(c1, c2), 1 (m1), ( m ) .
1

( C_1_pl ot d_1_pl ot P_pl ot)

( C_2_pl ot d_2_pl ot P_pl ot)

C_2_pl ot P_pl ot)
4.1 .
1 ( C_1_pl
ot

59


.

4.1.2. - (1946)
, , .

,
Y C t S t

(4.19)

Y C t I t

(4.20)

S t I t

(4.21)

(C(t)) , S(t) , I(t) ).

,

, 128.
129 ()-
K t 1 1 K t I t

(4.22)

(s), -
K t / Y t

Y t 1 Y t s

Y t

(4.23)

(4.24)

( ) .
128

Domar Evsey, Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment, Econometrica, vol. 14 (April, 1946), side
137-147.
129


- .

60
(4.22-
) .
-
,
.
,
130.

, ICOR (Incremental Capital Output Ratio,
)

2 ICOR 5 131.
Financing GAP

.



132.

(g*)
s

g* n

(4.25)

.
s

g* n

(4.26)

.
,
RMSM, RMSM-X 133.

130

William Easterly, The Ghost of Financing GAP, How the Harrod Domar Growth Model Still Haunts Development
Economics,1997, side 3-6.
131
(i) William Easterly, The Ghost of Financing GAP, How the Harrod Domar Growth Model Still Haunts
th
Developed Economics, 1997, side 7-10, (ii) Meier, G.M, Leading Issues In Economics Development, 6 ed,
Oxford, 1995, side 164.
132

( ) , ( )

.

61
,
.
,
,

s / n

,
, .

4.1.3. (1956)
, ,
,

. ,

.
L (
134)

, (,
, )
.

Y t K t At Lt

0 1

(4.27)

, ,
135
.
k K / AL , y Y / AL ( )

133

RMSM - ICOR
.
134
Y K , AL (AL ), Y AF K , L ,
Y F AK , L capital augmnted
.
135
K t At Lt 1 1Y Y ( 0 )
( ).

62

K K

y f k F
,1
k
AL AL

(4.28)

Lt L0 nt

At A0 gt

(4.29)

,
n, g
y k 1

(4.30)

K t sY t K t

k K / AL ,

(4.31)

4.29, 4.30-
K t
K t

At L t Lt A t
At Lt At Lt 2
K t
K t L t
K t t

At Lt At Lt Lt At Lt At
sY t K t

k t n g
At Lt
sy n g k t

dk t / dt

(4.32)

.
sy n g

. ,
,

( AL)
.

,
,
136.

.

136

(Y/L)
.

63

g n h

k sy hk

y k

(4.33)

u yk 1

1
hk
2

(4.34)

divV h g n 0 ,
.
sy kh 0

k 1 0

(4.35)

( y 0, k 0 )

.
Vij

1k 2

(4.36)

h h 2 0

(4.37)

1 0, 2 h .
. 4.31, 4.33
sk kh 0

(4.38)

h 1
h 1
k2
y2
s ;
s
. .

h
Vij

x2
y2

1 h
s

s
1
1

(4.39)

64
h

1 h
s

s
1
1

(4.40)
2

3 2

h
1, 2 1 1 4 1s 1 h 1
2

2 3 2

1 0 4 1s 1 h 1

(4.41)

0 .

2 3 2

4 1s 1 h 1 1

2-

Re 1 0
.
2 3 2

4 1s 1 h 1

1, 2

.
2 3 2

1 4 1s 1 h 1

1 0, 2 0 .

i) , ii) / ,
iii)
, iv)

,
,
1

u k yk 2 g n k
2

(4.41)

. 1-
, 2-
2 1

h 2
h 1
u
3
2s
s

. 1-
1 2-
.
, .

65

( 4.2) 137.

g nk -
( 4.2.).
,
, 1980 ,
.

Y
Y

dk

4.2 (20 )
( r_plot h_plot d_Y_plot)

. , ,
. , ,

4.1.4. (1947)
n
, -
. ,
, I ,
138
Y I a X

137

(4.42)

1 2- ,
.
138
( aij xij / x j i j ),
(I-a) , .

66
()

()

X I a Y AY
1

(4.43)

. Aij 1 a 1
. 1.3.39- ,

.
. - 139

1 (
)
.
.
i
(V), i j
(P)-

1 a P V

(4.44.)

P AV

(4.44.)

. Aij j i
.
(4.43, 4.44)
,


XV YP

(4.45)

P 1 A rB W
1

139

aij xij / x

(4.46)

i j ,

(1-a) , .

67
140. r , W
.
.
t

(4.44- ).
X t A X t B X t 1 X t Y t

(4.47)

1 A B n
1 / max ,



- 141.

,

.

.

,
.
( )
.

140
141

, 25-40 .
32 .

68

4.2.
4.2.1. (2000)
,
(R&D) 2 , (L), (K),
(A), (Y)
. :
t 142
Y t 1 a K K t At 1 a L Lt

0 1

(4.48)

a K a L ,
. B

A t Ba K K t a L Lt At

B 0, 0, 0

(4.49)

143

1 .

,
.
.

K t sY t

(4.50)

L t nLt

n0

(4.51)

, .

, , , L ,

A AB
.
1.

, )

142
143

Romer, David, Advanced Macroeconomics, 2nd ed, McGraw Hill/Irwin, 2001, side 108.
Y t 1 a K K t At 1 a L Lt 1

69
Y t At 1 a L Lt

(4.52)

A t Ba L Lt At

(4.53)

(1.2.39 ) -
g A t

A t

1
Ba L Lt At
At

(4.54)

, -
2
g A t ng A t 1g A t

(4.55)

.
2
g A t ng A t 1g A t 0

g *A 1 0, g *A 2

g *A 1 0,

(4.56)

( ) .
g *A 2

(n),
(),

159.301 150

159.301 150

5.435
5

100

100

Y_plot

Y_plot

A_plot
4

50

50

3.79

3.79
3
3.054

4
5
A_plot

6
5.435

3.054
2
2.79

3
4
d_y _plot

5
4.994

0.05
0.054

0.055
0.06
d_a_plot

0.065
0.064

4.3. (, 40 )
i. , ,

ii. ,

()
, .

70

() (
, 4.52, 4.53, 4.55-
)

2
g A t 1g A t .

g A t ng A t

g A t Ba L Lt

g A t g A t

.
.


.
2. ,

. (4.48, 4.50-)
1
K t

1 At Lt
xt
s1 a K 1 a L

K t
K t

(4.57)

yt At
At

x t
1 yt n xt
xt

(4.58)

y t
xt n 1 yt
yt

(4.59)

.
yt y, xt x

(4.60)

dy ny xy 1y 2

(4.61)

dx 1 xy nx x 2

71
.

Y Y0 exp x 1 n y dt . ,
0

(4.46, 4.47)
. (4.60, 4.61)
3n 2 x
2 3n 3x 2 1 y
u 1 x 2

y
6
6

(4.62)

, -

Vij

h 0
y 0

1 n
0

0
n

(4.63)

det A 0 0, 1
n 0 .

x 0, y 0

i.

det A 0 (

) .

N = 0 1 0, 2 0 ,
.

ii. 1 2 n 0 1 0, 2 n .
0

1 0, 2 1 n .

2 1 n 0 ,

72

L
4.4 (, 40

)
. 0, =1

. 0.0001, =1
divR0 n1

1 .
(0,0) ,
. n 0 x=0, y=0
y2

1 .
n ,
x2 n
1
1

Vij

x2
y2

1 n y 2 2 x2
y 2

1 y 2
n x2 2 1 y 2

det Vij n 2 1
1

(4.64)
(4.65)

1, , 1 , n 0

. 1


.

73
2 1y 2 1 x2 11 x2 y 2 1 x2 y 2 0

(4.66)

. 1 1 1 z
1, 2

nz n z 2 41 1
1

(4.67)

1 0 1 .

( 4.3).
3

3.81310

3.81310

Y_plot

2000

Y_plot

2000

2.893

2.893
1.2

1000
K_plot 1.764103

4.5

3.09

100
A_plot 161.049

144.


.
,

,
, ,
.

144

Gilmore.R, Catastrophe Theory for Scientists and Engineers, 1981, Dover Edition, side 471.

74

( 4.6).
4.6. ,

A, K, L-

, k, Y-

=1

, K, Y-

n=0

=1-

k
L
k

75

4.2.2. ,
(1992)
, ,
,

,

, ,
.
, ,
,
.
t
(t)
(
), (t) t
145
Y t At xt

(4.68)

(L) , n
, L-n , R&D 146
(t)-
( >1) R&D
( )

1
r n

(4.69)

1 , r (R&D

) . R&D
,

145

i. Egbert L. W. Jongen Innovation Based Growth Theory, Peter Howitt, Nake Nieuws, vol.13.No 3, December
2001.
ii. Lue Soete, Bas ter Weel, Schumpeter and the Knowledge-Based Economy: On Technology and Competition
Policy, 2000, side 13-15
146
8 , R&D .

76
, n147

.

n
., .
.
,
.
A() , w / A

n xw L

(4.70)

R&D w
.

A t n Amax t At

(4.72)

max

g A n ln

(4.73)

.
( )-
. 2-
y2 h / s / 1 ( h n g )

148

Y
ln si ln g l ,i ln A i
ln
L i 1

( ni

(4.74)

i R&D-

gji- ) .

Y
ln si ln g l ,i k ln R & D g ij i
ln
1 k
Y i
L i 1

(4.75)

n .
Mankiw.N.G, Romer.D, and D.N.Weil, 1992, A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, Quarterly
Journal of Economics,107(2), slde 407-437.

147
148

77


(

R & D / Yi

).

A 1 A

149
150. , ,

, ,
,
.
, ,

.
, R&D

.
R&D
( )
,
.

,

.
a, ,
,

149
150

Santa Claus Assumption

Solow.R.M, Economic Growth, 2nd ed. Oxford, 2000, side 105.

78

151.

4.2.3. (1995)

, , .
1995 152 153
,
,
,
. 1995 154
,

, , ,
, .

.

,
, , ,
, ,
,

. :
F j K j G j j N j

151

j , j 0, j j 1 (4.76)

Philippe Aghion, Christopher Harris, Peter Howitt, John Vickers, Competition, Imitation and Growth with Step
by Step Innovation, 2000, pp 28-35
Wei Bing Zang A Multy Country Free Trade Model With Capital accumulation, International Economics
Journal, Vol. 8, No 1, Spring., 1994.
153
( Y AK )
154
Wei Bing Zang A Two Country Dynamic Trade Model With Multiple Groups, International Economics Journal,
Vol. 9, No 3, Spring., 1995.
152

79
G j 0 , G j 0
Nik j k , Kjk
zjk j k
K j K j1 K j 2

(4.77)

N j z j1 N j 1 z j 2 N j 2

(4.78)

F1

F2

(4.79)

K 1 E K 2 E

w jk

z jk F j

(4.80)

Nj

.
j k ( C jk t ),
a ( K jk t S jk t 0 K jk W jk )-

jk j k , jk
.
U jk t C jkjk W jk

jk

(4.81)

jk , jk 0,

jk jk 0

j k
Y jk rK jk w jk N jk

C jk S jk Y jk
C jk jk Y jk jk 1 0 K jk

(4.82)

S jk jk Y jk jk 1 0 K jk

(4.83)

, ,

.
j k
k S jk 0 K jk jk Y jk jk K jk jk jk 0 jk

(4.84)

. 30 ,
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, (v)

.
1975

( 7.1) 1992-1995 .
1992 0.626, 1995 0.635

238

162 -
- 0.764,
0.865, , ,
0.881 239.
-

, .
,
. 114 -

238

1990
63.7
96.5
60.4
1.64
0.645
0.845
0.467
0.652
1992
62.8
96.5
54.3
1.266
0.630
0.824
0.424
0.626
1995
63.8
96.5
57
1.267
0.647
0.833
0.424
0.635
1998
65.1
96.5
62
1.356
0.669
0.850
0.435
0.651
2003
64
97.8
74
1850
0.65
0.90
0.49
0.679
, 2000, , 2000, Human Development
Report 2005: International Cooperation at Crossroads, Aid, Trade and Security in an Unequal World, UNDP,
NY, 2005.
239

- .

158

240.

, , ,
, ,

.
1965- 1985
-
( log ) ,
,

-0.025

27 50 , 80-
90 90 ) 241.
1980

1985

1990

1,0

1995

2000

2003

0,9

0,8

0.925

0.941

0,949

0.863

0.884

0.898

0.914

0.925

0.939

0,944

0.854

0.878

0.893

0.909

0.923

0.933

0,943

0.756

0.795

0.823

0.859

0.877

0.888

0,916

0.722

0.755

0.782

0.818

0.857

0.885

0,907

0.809

0.827

0.824

0.779

0.781

0,795

0.763

0.784

0.786

0.778

0.779

0808

0.523

0.554

0.591

0.625

0.681

0.726

0,755

0.65

0.657

0.636

0.655

0,674

0.407

0.434

0.473

0.511

0.545

0.577

0,602

0,7

0,6

0,5

0,4

1995

0.894

1990

0.883

1985

0.872

1980

0.863

1975

2003

1975

242

2000

7.1

,
( 7.1). 1975-2003

240

Robert J. Barro, Determinants of Economic Growth, a Cross Country Empirical Study, MIT press, 1999, side
10 ( ).
241

,
.
242
Key Indicators 2002: Population and Human Resource Trends and Challenges, Asian Development Bank,
2002.
Human Development Report 2005: International Cooperation at Crossroads, Aid, Trade and Security in an
Unequal World, UNDP, NY, 2005.

159
0.7, - 1.7,
2.7, 2.6,
1.9, 2.2 .
,
, .
HPI-1, HPI-2
.

,
243

-
. , ,

.
7.1. ,

, ,
,

243

, 2000, , 2000, , 21- .

160

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i. ,
ii. , ,
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v. -
vi. ,
vii. 15- ,
viii. .

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,
, .

.
, , ,
,
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.

,
.
,
.

161
7.2. ,

245
246

247

1980

1985

1989

1995

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

40

38

42

82

42

53

56

50

55

58

2128

1893

1816

3102

2141

2531

2752

2879

2638

2642

1265

996

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.13

0.08

0.10

0.11

0.11

0.10

0.10

888.
5

-
1.0

244

1.2

1.4

/ /
1131

1956

3414

3723

3903

4605

6322

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.7

.5

364.

913.

1348

1352

1355

1745

2393

86

96

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,1

,
, 1995 ,
- ,
23 ,
( ,
) 6.3 ,
7.14 .

,

(i) , (ii)
, (iii) , , (iv)
, (v)

244

1995 - , 1989 ,
, , 1990, , , 2001-
.
245
- .
246
1989 ,
/ , /
247
1995 - , 1989 ,
, , 1990, , , 2001-
.

.

162
.
, ,

.

.
,
, ,

, .
,
.

.
25-
,
1.18
248. ,
, ,

.
, ,
.
,

.

248

Robert J. Barro, Determinants of Economic Growth, A Cross Country Empirical Study, MIT press, 1999, side
19-21.

163

7.2.
i.

/2002/

250

31
0

50

100

ii. ,

150

200

250

/$, 2003/

79,2

0,3

0
0

iii.

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

/ - %, 1997-2002 /
2,5

0,8
0

0,3
0

iv.

R&D ,

( , 1990-2003 )
3004,6

521
0

710
0

1000

2000

3000

: Human Development Report, UNDP, 2005.

-
,
- ,
8,3 .
, 249 -
, 4.3 , 1.6
, ( 7.3) ,
.

249

, .

164
250 ,
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1990-2000, 2000-2003

( , , ,
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. 2000-2003
,
12 56
, .
7.3. ,
251.
,

250

1990-2000 1990-

,


1990-2000 1990-

1146
0.3- 0.8
. .
251
Human Development Report, 2002 UNDP, 2002, 2005

165
2003

1273
2,2

1987 - 1997

1146

2,4

1987 - 1997

2003

400

0,9

4103

2,7

2,6

4960

5085

3,1

2,8

4526

4,3

2873

3222

2,5

1,6

468

0,3

710

3,8

5171

4507

0
2,4

1,1

0,7

0,9

1570

1570

2182

4352

459

633

3397

3415

5,1

2,2

1,2

1,2

50.15%

22,2%

, ,
62-71 , 53-59
, 16-23 , ,
.
7.3.

166
,

252.

( 7.4.) 253.

,
,
, ,
,
,

, ,
.

, ,
, ,
,
, ,
252

Sanjaya Lall, Comparing national Competitive performanc: An Economic Analysis of World Economic
Forums Competitiveness Index, Working paper No. 61, QEH, 2000, (
)
253
4.23 ( 10).
www.worldbank.org.kam/.

167
, ,
.

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,

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, .
, ,
.
,

,
254,
.
7.4. 255

, ,

256
(-
(%)
)
1980
1997
1995-1997257
1987-1997258

15
68
34.1
2.8

8
43
62
1.1

31
55
30.6
3.8

15
22
20.9
0.1

56
81
17.2
2.6

254

( ).
Human development Report 2001, 2005,, UNDP.
256
2005 36 (2001 28)
, , , , , , 64
.
257
1998-2003 41 .
.
258
1997-2002 2 , 0,9, -
2.5 .
255

168

-

27.6

39

64

28.2

2.4

, , 1984- 2003 259

, ,
7.5- .

7.5. , ,

,
.
, , ,
, - (
7.5).

259

- .

169
7.5 , ,
.

(1)

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0.905156

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0.739145

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0.719426

-0.4993843

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0.672119

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0.232711

0.0865173

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170

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.
2004
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.
65-
2000 16.3, 2025 6.4, 2050 3.8 ( 7.6).

,
.

171

7.6. 1994-2004 , , ,
.

, ,

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, , ,
,
260.
261

0.05-0.7 .
,
260

37 . (The Size and
Character of the Informaol Sector and Its Shadow Economy in Mongolia, The IRIS Center, University of
Maryland and The Open Society Institute8 Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 2005)
261
1975-2000 2000 19752000 (%)
15
(%)
2000
15

2.2
1.3
-
1.7
1.0

1.9
1.4
-
2.7
2.5

2.6
2.4

1.6
1.2

0.7
0.4

172
, ,
, , ,
, ,
.

7.7.

65- 2000, 2025, 2050

(TAI)- .
1. ( , ),
2. (

),
3. ( ,
)
4. (15-
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262 (, ,
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173
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263:
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.
2. , ,

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.
3.
, ,
.
4.

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5. -, ,

( 46 ).
.
,
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.
22 264 -
0.08 8 ,
265.

263

Human Development Report 2001, Making New Technologies Work for Human Development, UNDP, Oxford
University Press, NY., 2001, side 37-38.
264
, , , , , , , , , , , ,
, , , , , , , , .
265
Acemoglu, Daron, and Fabrizio Zilibotti, Productivity Dierences National Bureau of Economic Research,
Working Paper No. 6879, 1999, side 30-32.

174
,
(x 7.6).
7.6. ,

,
,
,
,
, ,
, ,
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,

,

-, ,
-

78,374

36,951

66,272

6,722

,
,
,
-

,

,
,

9,530

4,563

1990 ($)
25,027
14,227
56,687
24,561
55,814
27,694

1990 ($)
1988 6500 $
. , , , , , , , , ,
, , , , .
, , , , ,
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- ( 7.7).
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-

266

1.002162335
2.269931526
2.234973772
24,973

14.03645541
31.79304543
31.3034212
1,783

6.615648956
14.98466825
14.75389902
3,783

-
31 ,
14 .

266

Human Development Report, UNDP, 2002.

175

- 27
( 41 )

,
, , ,
.


267.
,


. 1990-
,
, , ,
. ,

.

, 1990 - /
/ 1989 52475.3 ( 2.2.9),
- 4.886 -
3.32 45.00
(1971 35

1990 )
268

267

Robert J. Barro, Determinants of Economic Growth, A Cross Country Empirical Study, MIT press, 1999, side
7.
268
1989 3.32 1990 ,
. 13.55 .
$

176

7.8. , , / /

,
, , ,

.
,
, ,
, ,

(-,

1999;

, , 2000).
7.8. / /
1980
1985
/ /
23692.3
39053.9


15669.6
25329.3

6739.2
12929.4

4666.6
6174.1

552.7
1024.9

2507.0
3325.2

1988
49474.8

1989
52475.3

31052.5
14809.4
7039.3
2207.3
4701.2

33331.6
16508.4
7196.9
1822.2
4985.1

1980
3.32
23

1981
3.32
30

1982
3.32
30

1983
3.32
35

1984
3.32
40

1985
3.32
40

1986
3.32
47

1987
3.32
45

1988
3.32
85

1989
3.32
140

1990
5.51
330

1991
39.4
450

1992
105.07
460

1993
396.51
475

1994
414.09
695

1995
473.03
815

1996
693.51
917

1997
813.6

1998
902

1999
1072.3

177

289.7
914.4
8022.7

625.1
1250.6
13724.6

778.4
1516.9
18422.3

813.8
2005.2
19143.7

, 18 3538
(i)
, (ii) , (iii)
, (iv)
, ,
(
) , ,
,
,
(2002)269.

200.0

90

350.0

80

180.0

300.0
160.0

70

250.0

140.0
120.0

60

200.0

50

150.0

40

100.0
80.0

30

60.0

100.0

20

40.0

50.0

20.0

10

0.0

0.0
1990

2000

1990

1990

2000

2000

7.9.

1.

/ /

2.

/ /

3.

/ /
: Human Development Report 2002,, UNDP, 2002.

269

World Economic Outlook 2002, IMF, Essays on trade and finance, side 98.


.
...
. ...

(0.027) (Robert J. Barro, Determinants of Economic Growth, A Cross Country Empirical Study, MIT
press, 1999, side 16, 32-35).


.

178

, , , ,


.
.
1990-2000
7.10. (
1985-1998)

25
21,4

14,3
11,7

13,1

8,5
8,5

9,7
10

1990-2000

4,4

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24- 20

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11,3

20

15

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( 7.11).

21.4, - 2000 2003 11.3- 18
, 18 .
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,

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179

140

7.11.
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/
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120
29
100

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4

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270

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180

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6
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2
0
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198493

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

World Economic Outlook, Trade and Finance, September 2002, IMF,

(,

)
-0.136 271.

271

Robert J.Barro, Determinants of Economic Growth, A Cross Country Empirical Study, MIT Press, 1999, side
26-27.

181
26
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184

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277
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dX Y d 1 a 1 a dY V dK K dV
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277

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185
.

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1

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278

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8.9, 8.11, 8.12

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279

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187
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(i), (ii),
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189

dY K dV 1 a S S VK 1 a

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190

dY a a Y s S ( k Y K )V s S VK 1 a

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8.4. ,


(i)
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281
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281

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191

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,
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282

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, 283
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283

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193

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u

dH bE YS H 1Y
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. K Y H K .
8.29, 8.36, 8.35
.

194
dY

a a

Y S S 1 a S V 1 a K Y K H R
1 a
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a a

Y S S 1 a S V 1 a K Y K H R
1 a
Y

(8.47)

Y
S2Y 2
S b1 S S

dV S

(8.48)

S
R
R
V

K
1 a Y
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(8.49)

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(8.50)

dR rR X R Y RY

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m

(8.52)

.
1.
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8.6.

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.
,
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a a
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Y S s S 1 a k VY 1 a VK 1 a

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(9.3)

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S
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200
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201

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1
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. 9.6
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.
9.7-

9.10

dY 0, da 0, dK 0, dS 0
. 9.7- 9.10

a a
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1 a
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s 1 a 2

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b
2

Y SY
s

1 a

Y V K Y K

SS

V 1 a

s
S 1 a

S b1 S Y

(9.12)

. Y 0, a 0, S 0, K 0
Y1 0, a1 0, K1 0, S1 0
1 V k , 2 a , 3 S b, 4

det A a K s b1 V 0

s b

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.
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293

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202
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294.
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294

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0
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0

0

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295
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203

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204

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,
Y

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205
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a a
1 a

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(9.15)

S
Y

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Y
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dV s

(9.14)

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(9.16)
(9.17)

S
V
K

S ,

s b SY 2
S
2

(9.18)

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1 a

S
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Y
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S
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1 a

Y S VK

SS

0
0

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s

1 a
Y

S b1 S Y

S
K

K 1 a

(9.19)

.
Y1 0, a1 0,V1 0, S1 0
0 S

0 a
Aij 0
0

0
0

s S

S b
S
K

0
0

(9.24)

.
det A 0 1 0, 2 a , 3 S b, 4 (

206
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296.


.
2). Y2 0, a2 1,V2 0, S 2 0
3). Y3
a3

(9.20)

S2Y 2
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; S3
S S S 1 a a a
S s Y

K a ab S
SS
S 2S 2 S S ;
K3

2
S S S 1 a a a
2 a
a
4 a

Y2 0, a2 1,V2 0, S 2 0

(9.21)

9.1.- 2- .

a 1 ,
.
- ,
s , b - s b
.

.
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( a )

, a . ,

( ) ,

divA a S b S b a
296
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.
296

207
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,
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208

9.4. ,

( da 0 )-

, .

Y, S, , V

dY V K Y K 1 a S S KV 1 a

(9.22)

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(9.23)

dS

s 2Y 2
Y
s b1 s S

dV s

(9.24)
(9.25)

S
V
K

S , S ,

b S Y 2
1
1 2
u KVY 2 1 a K YK s Y 2 s
S
2
2
2

(9.26)

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2
Aij s Y b S Y

V V 1 a

S 1 a

S b1 S Y

0
S
K2

K 1 a

(9.27)

. 297 2-

Y2

K b S ;
S s k b

S2

K 2 b S
S

S K b S ;

K2

K 2 b S
s s b K

297

det A 1

(9.28)

s K 1 k 2 s

1

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s K 1 k 2 s
det A 0

k 1
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s b

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1 0, 2 0, 3 S b, 4
. divA S b S b
.

209
,
.

s k
k
1 , 2 1 b , 3 , 4
s
K

1 k / s b K .

.

a a s 1 a Y

,
(),
- (s),
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,
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,
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, .


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,
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210
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298
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299, dK=0 300


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.
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)- , ,

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a a

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S Y
S
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S
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(9.29)

s,

1
1
1
1
1
1
aY 2 a a 2 s 2 SY s S 2 bS 2
s bYS 2
2
2

2
2
2

(9.30)

298

9.7- 9.10
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299
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155

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Y
S
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, , ,
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. 301.

.

Y 0, a 0, S 0

(V=0) .

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a
1 a

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S

S
S 1 a 2
Y

S
Y
S b1 s

S
Y

1 a

aa

1 a

S
a S
Y
2

(9.32)

Y 0, a 0, S 0 det A 0
302. 9.1
Y2 0, a 2 1, S 2

(9.33)

,

303.

, ,
( 9.3).

301

.
302
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303
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. S 2 0, Y2 0 -
.

156

9.3. (

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1.337
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13,2 .
.

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157
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, ,
, ,
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, .

Y, S, V

S S

dY K V 1 a

2 2

Y
SY
S b1 S S
dS

S
dV S V

(9.34)

s,

V 1

u S S Y 1 a V 2
K 2

(9.35)

Y
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(9.36)

, ,
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.
9.34 (9.35)
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158

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9.4 , (
) ,

/40 /

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.

dY V K Y K 1 a

dK K Y K

(9.37)

divf V K 1 a

304

(9.38)

, , .

159
, ,

1
1
u K YV 1 a Y 1 K
2

(9.39)

Y, K
.

9.5. ,

/ 40 /.

.


.
. (
)
.

9.3.
s Y / 1

,
SY
wLS

SY
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160

dS

Y
s 2Y 2
s b1 s S SY S S

.
.
9.8.

s Y / 1

, .

Y , a, K , S , V

dY

a a
1 a

Y S s S 1 a kVY 1 a VK 1 a

da a a s 1 a

(9.40)
(9.41)

S
Y

dK kY K

(9.42)

dS sY s S

(9.43)

dV s

(9.44)

S
V
K

S , K

(9.45)

1
1
1
1
1
u aY 2 a a 2 k YK K 2 V 2 S SY s S 2
2
2
2
2
2

aY 2 , 1 K 2 ; 1 V 2 ; 1 s S 2
2

, , ,
, .

Aij

S 1 a
Y
0

S 1 a
S
Y2
K

s / K

S
S 2
K
0

0
0
S
S
aY
a a

S KV K YV V 1 a K K Y 1 a S S 1 a
KV 1 a
1 a
1 a 2 S

(9.46)
9.40- 9.44- a1 0,Y1 0, K1 0,V1 0, S1 0
a S ( divA a S )
, a S

161

305.

a S S S q
S2

S 2 K a S 2 S q ;
S S q s s a

Y2

S 3 K a S 2 S q
S 2 S q s s a

K2

S 3 K 2 a K S 2 S q ;
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a2

S S
; V2 S S
S K
s a S S

(9.47)

.
S 2 K a S 2 S q S 2 0, S 3 K a S 2 S q
Y2 , K 2 - 1-
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a 2 0, V2 0, S 2 , K 2 ,Y2

, ,
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,
306-
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.
.

1 a , 2 , 3 , 4 S , 5 0 .
det A a S S S
S S
,

.
306

.
305

162
9.9.
s Y / 1 , , ,
.

Y , a, S ,V

aa

dY 1 a Y S S S S VK 1 a

dS S Y S S

da a 1 a S
a
S

dV

S
/
K

V
S

(9.60)

S , K

(9.45)

1
1
1
a a 2 1 S V 2 s SY S S 2
2
2
2

divf

a a
S
s a S
1 a
Y

(9.60)
, , ,
, ,

a a
S a a
S
s a S
s a S
1 a
Y
1 a
Y

,
.
.

A0

1 a

S
S 1 a Y 2

a a

1 a

K 1 a

S
a S
Y

Y 0, a 0, S 0,V 0

S S

1 a
Y
S

K
S

(9.62)

det A a S S S 0

. , a , S -
.

163

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.

307

J.Edmonds, J.M.Roop, M.J.Scott, Technology and the Economics of Climate Change Policy, September
2000, the Pew Center, side 16.

165

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,
, ,
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,
,
,
(i)
, (ii)
, (iii)
,
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7- 28

, 2050
20 308. ,

,
2015

308

Messner.S, Endogenized Technological Learning in an Energy Systems Model J o u rnal of Evolutionary

Economics , 1997, 7(3): 291-313.

166
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2090 ) .
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S

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b1 S Y / S - .
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,
710,

309

Revolutionary technology
J.Edmonds, J.M.Roop, M.J.Scott, Technology and the Economics of Climate Change Policy, September
2000, the Pew Center, side 27-28.

310

167

1990-2000

311

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, 8,
.

2,
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.

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40 40
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311

Human development Report, UNDP, 2002, 2001

168

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9.10. , 4 , 3500

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312

1990-2000 .

169
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.

0.001

1170

0.02

0.04

1170

0.02

0.04

3500

0.06

3500

0.04

3500

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S 2Y 2 /
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, ,
.

170

9.5. , , ,
,

.
9.11. , , ,
,
, , , .

Y , a, K , S ,V , R, H

dY

a a

Y S S 1 a S V 1 a K Y K H R
1 a
Y

da a a s 1 a

(9.67)

S
Y

dK K Y K H
dS

s 2Y 2
Y
s b1 s S

dV S

S
R
R
V

K
1 a Y
K

dR rR X R Y RY

dH bEYS H 1Y
m

S , K , R , , u / m

2Y 2
Y SV 1 2
1
1
1
u a Y 2 a 2 K 2 S S S 2 S b1 S S
V
2
2

2

K
2

(9.68)

R2 1

1 2 u

2 r Y 2 k YK bE YSH H Y 1 YR R X
2 Y
2
2Y
m

divA

a a
S
Y
R 2
u

V (1 a) K 2 a S S b1 S r Y 1Y (9.69)
1 a
Y

m
Y

171
a, S , Y ,V , R

s , s , a , b, , , r , , ,

313,

S , , K , u / m

314 . R
, H a, S ,V , R, K , Y - .

V (1 a) K a

SS

a R 2
Y
u

r S b1 S Y 1Y a 2
1 a Y
Y

m

V (1 a) K a

SS
a R 2
Y
u
r S b1 S Y 1Y a 2
1 a Y
Y

m

, ,

V (1 a) K ,

a ,

S S / Y ,

(r )-
.
S Y /
,
,
u / m ,

R / Y .
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313

, ,
, , , ,
, ,
.
314
(- , S Y /
)

172
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R 2 aY

1 a K Y K H R
V 1 a K 2
S S K Y K H
V 1 a
S 1 a S
Y
Y 21 a
1 a

SS
S
S

a
0
0
S
a

Y
Y
Y2

K
0

0
0
0

SY
2 2 1

S Y SS
0
0
S b1
0
0

2
S R R
S
R
R K
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S2

1 a KY
1 a K Y
K

1 a Y 2 K
K 1 a Y K 2

R X R
0
0
0
0
r Y

bE S
0
0
bE Y
0
0

V 1 a

0 (9.70)

0
u
1Y
m

. Y 0, a 0, K 0, S 0,V 0, R 0, H 0
0

Aij
0

X R

a
0
0
0
0
0

0
0

0
0
0
0

S S

0
0
0
S b 0

0
0
0
0

0
0
0

r
0

0
0
0

(9.71)

1 0, 2 a ,
3 , 4 S b, 5 , 6 r, 7 0 .

det Aij 0
divA a b r S .
Y 0, a 0, K 0, S 0,V 0, R 0, H 0

a b r S ,
,
, ,
.
Y 0, a 1, K 0, S 0, V 0, R 0
0

Aij
0

X R

a
0
0
0
0
0

0
0

0
0
0
0

0
0
0
S b 0

0
0
0
0

0
0
0

r
0

0
0
0

(9.72)

Y 0, a 0, K 0, S 0,V 0, R 0, H 0 .

173
.

9.67

315.

9.17.

S 0.001, R 0.03, K 0.04, LS 1170,

u
1
m

1.2 ,
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.

316,
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315

,
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316

9.12. 173 1990-2000

0.0171
0.2039
0.3789
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174

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2019 ,

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5 .

175

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9.20.

5
S 0.04 ,
,
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10 .

176

9.21.

, u/m=0.9

10

u/m=1 6 .

( 3.3.6).
(3.3.7)
, ,
.

9.21.

, u/m=1.05

,
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 9.5. , , , .

,

s -b , divA V K a s b 0 1 V k , 2 a ,
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1
1
1
3 s b, 4
u a 2 Y 2 2Y 2 S

dV=0

Y
s b1 s S 2 k YK

Y2 0, a2 1, K2 0, S2 0

2 s
1
K 2 S s S V 2
2
K
2
K

Y3

a ab S s s 1
s s 1 a S S 1 a

a s b s s 1 1 a
s s a s s
K a ab S s s 1
1 ;
K2
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s s 1 a S S 1 a
s S a
2

dK=0

S2

1
u s2Y 2 S

s b SY 2

S
2

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S2Y 2
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,
,
S2
Y2
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2
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