Marist College Institute for Public Opinion

Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu

NY1-Marist Poll Quinn Still Leader of Democratic Field, But

*** Complete Tables for Poll Appended *** EMBARGOED UNTIL 7:30 P.M. on Thursday, October 18, 2012 Contact: Lee M. Miringoff Barbara L. Carvalho Mary E. Azzoli Marist College 845.575.5050

This NY1-Marist Poll Reports: Looking ahead to the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has the support of 23% of Democrats citywide. Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson follows with 15%. Nine percent of registered Democrats citywide are for current Comptroller John Liu while 8% support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio. Six percent back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, receives 2%. Nearly four in ten registered Democrats in New York City -- 37% -- are unsure. Theres still a long way to go before Democrats go to the polls, says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. Nearly four in ten Democrats in the city are undecided. When compared with NY1-Marists April survey, more Democrats in the city are unsure about whom to support in the contest. At that time, more than three in ten New York City Democrats -- 32% -- favored Quinn. 12% supported Thompson, and 10% were for de Blasio. Liu received the backing of 9% while Stringer garnered 7%. Only 1% of Democrats were behind Allon, and 29% were unsure. Plurality Says, No Go for Kelly Mayoralty 46% of registered voters in New York City do not want Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to run for mayor. 35% support a Kelly candidacy. 19% are unsure. In NY1-Marists July 2011 survey, voters divided. 42% believed Kelly should stay out of the race while the same proportion -- 42% -- wanted him to throw his hat into the ring. 16%, at that time, were unsure.

Other well-known names have been bandied about as possible mayoralty candidates. How do they fare? 58% of registered voters citywide do not want Anthony Weiner to run for mayor while one in four -- 25% -- does. 17% are unsure. There has been little change on this question since NY1-Marist last reported it in July of 2011. At that time, 64% of voters citywide did not want Weiner to seek the office while 26% did. One in ten, at that time, was unsure. When it comes to Eliot Spitzer, 57% of registered voters want him to stay out of the contest while 30% would like to see him enter it. 13% are unsure. Here, too, there is little difference from the last time this question was asked in July of 2011. At that time, the same proportion -- 57% -- reported Spitzer should not run for mayor while 33% thought he should. Nine percent, then, were unsure. What about actor Alec Baldwin? 66% of registered voters say they dont want the actor to turn politician. 18%, though, would like to see Baldwin enter the contest. 16% are unsure. Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady 45% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office. This includes 10% who say he is doing an excellent job and 35% who report he is doing a good one. 32% report his performance is fair while 20% call it poor. Only three percent are unsure. When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks. Included here were 12% who said he was doing an excellent job and 32% who believed he was doing a good one. 33% gave the mayor average grades while 22% thought his performance was subpar. Only 1%, then, was unsure. Bloombergs Legacy How will Mayor Bloomberg be remembered after he leaves office? 43% of registered voters believe he will leave a positive legacy. This includes 12% who think he will be remembered as one of the citys best mayors and 31% who say he will be considered an above average mayor. 34% think Bloomberg will be thought of as an average mayor while 12% report he will be remembered as a below average one. Eight percent have low expectations and say Bloomberg will be considered one of the citys worst mayors. Little has changed on this question since April. At that time, 39% thought Bloomberg would leave a positive legacy behind. 39% said he would be considered an average mayor while 13% believed he would be looked upon as a subpar mayor. Nine percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of New York Citys worst mayors.

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Majority Remains Optimistic about the Direction of the City 51% of registered voters citywide say the Big Apple is moving in the right direction. 38%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong one. 10% are unsure. Here, too, the findings are similar to the NY1-Marist April survey when 52% thought New York City was on the right course. More than four in ten voters -- 42% -- said it was on the wrong one, and 6% were unsure.

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How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample: NY1-Marist New York City Poll of 918 Adults This survey of 918 New York City adults was conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in New York City were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the city. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each borough was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within 3.2 percentage points. There are 742 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.6 percentage points. There are 453 registered democrats. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 4.6 percentage points. The error margin increases for crosstabulations.

Nature of the Sample - NYC Adults Adults Col % NYC Adults NYC Registered Voters NYC Registered Democrats NYC Borough Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens and Staten Island Party Registration Democrat Republican Independent Other Income Race Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more White African American Latino Other Age Households with children under 18 Gender Interview Type Under 45 45 or older Household with children No children in household Men Women Landline Cell Phone 100% 81% 49% 16% 30% 21% 33% 65% 13% 20% 1% 51% 49% 37% 22% 26% 15% 53% 47% 37% 63% 47% 53% 70% 30% 100% 61% 16% 29% 22% 33% 65% 13% 20% 1% 48% 52% 40% 21% 27% 12% 49% 51% 37% 63% 45% 55% 72% 28% 100% 17% 29% 26% 28% 100% 0% 0% 0% 50% 50% 35% 27% 29% 9% 47% 53% 35% 65% 40% 60% 73% 27% Registered Voters Col % Registered Democrats Col %

NY1-Marist Poll NYC Adults: Interviews conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012, N=918 MOE +/- 3.2 percentage points. NYC Registered voters: N=742 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. NYC Registered Democrats: N=453 MOE +/- 4.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

NYC Registered Voters Would you rate the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor? Excellent Good Fair Poor Unsure Row % Row % Row % Row % Row % 10% 35% 32% 20% 3% 9% 11% 11% 10% 11% 9% 9% 9% 11% 11% 7% 12% 15% 6% 9% 6% 9% 16% 7% 13% 7% 12% 4% 9% 14% 11% 11% 9% 9% 12% 33% 42% 35% 33% 41% 30% 41% 29% 34% 37% 36% 34% 34% 24% 43% 32% 40% 33% 32% 37% 35% 35% 36% 35% 33% 36% 35% 34% 34% 39% 37% 26% 24% 39% 30% 29% 25% 34% 34% 33% 31% 35% 28% 46% 30% 37% 31% 25% 32% 31% 32% 32% 37% 29% 33% 31% 33% 31% 34% 27% 17% 22% 25% 15% 18% 31% 23% 26% 15% 17% 21% 18% 22% 21% 16% 21% 19% 25% 24% 16% 22% 18% 16% 25% 17% 19% 19% 21% 21% 17% 3% 0% 4% 4% 1% 2% 3% 3% 6% 3% 5% 1% 1% 3% 3% 4% 2% 1% 5% 2% 4% 2% 6% 2% 3% 2% 2% 5% 2% 5%

NYC Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative NYC Borough Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens and Staten Island Income Race Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more White African American Latino Religion Protestant Catholic Jewish Education Age Age Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Gender Interview Type Men Women Landline Cell Phone

NY1-Marist Poll NYC Registered Voters: Interviews conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012, N=742 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

NYC Registered Voters When Michael Bloomberg finishes his third term....do you think he will be remembered as one of the best mayors in New York City history, above average, about average, below average, or as one of the worst mayors in New York City's history? One of the best mayors Row % 12% 10% 13% 13% 12% 16% 7% 5% 10% 18% 12% 11% 11% 13% 7% 11% 13% 9% 14% 10% 14% 10% 13% 7% 12% 13% 12% 15% 9% 10% 14% Above average Row % 31% 34% 29% 28% 37% 32% 25% 35% 30% 33% 30% 28% 36% 34% 31% 34% 27% 32% 36% 25% 38% 38% 26% 40% 37% 26% 26% 34% 30% 30% 36% About average Row % 34% 36% 37% 29% 35% 33% 38% 35% 33% 34% 36% 37% 32% 31% 39% 38% 40% 38% 23% 38% 31% 30% 39% 34% 28% 39% 39% 30% 38% 36% 30% Below average Row % 12% 10% 12% 17% 10% 8% 17% 12% 13% 4% 15% 11% 13% 13% 9% 10% 9% 13% 16% 13% 10% 11% 12% 9% 12% 9% 15% 13% 10% 13% 7% One of the worst mayors Row % 8% 7% 9% 9% 4% 8% 12% 9% 10% 6% 5% 9% 6% 7% 11% 6% 9% 8% 8% 10% 5% 7% 7% 6% 8% 9% 6% 8% 7% 7% 8%

NYC Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative NYC Borough Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens and Staten Island Income Race Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more White African American Latino Religion Protestant Catholic Jewish Education Age Age Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Gender Interview Type Men Women Landline Cell Phone

NY1-Marist Poll NYC Registered Voters: Interviews conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012, N=742 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

NYC Registered Voters In general, thinking about the way things are going in New York City, do you feel things are going in the right direction or that things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Unsure Row % Row % Row % 51% 38% 10% 53% 51% 48% 56% 59% 35% 53% 52% 53% 49% 47% 56% 50% 44% 61% 49% 53% 50% 41% 62% 58% 47% 65% 54% 49% 45% 60% 44% 48% 59% 36% 41% 43% 31% 34% 55% 36% 41% 36% 40% 41% 38% 41% 47% 28% 43% 38% 37% 48% 29% 34% 42% 28% 37% 43% 41% 35% 41% 41% 31% 11% 8% 9% 12% 6% 10% 11% 7% 12% 12% 12% 6% 8% 9% 10% 8% 9% 13% 11% 9% 8% 11% 7% 8% 8% 14% 5% 15% 10% 10%

NYC Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative NYC Borough Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens and Staten Island Income Race Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more White African American Latino Religion Protestant Catholic Jewish Education Age Age Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Gender Interview Type Men Women Landline Cell Phone

NY1-Marist Poll NYC Registered Voters: Interviews conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012, N=742 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Registered Democrats If the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: City Council Speaker Christine Quinn Row % 23% Liberal Moderate Conservative NYC Borough Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens and Staten Island Income Race Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more White African American Latino Education Age Gender Interview Type Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older Men Women Landline Cell Phone 29% 18% 17% 21% 18% 26% 28% 22% 27% 31% 16% 25% 17% 30% 21% 26% 22% 24% 24% 22% Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson Row % 15% 16% 16% 12% 15% 22% 9% 14% 15% 16% 8% 26% 15% 16% 14% 14% 17% 17% 14% 17% 11% Comptroller John Liu Row % 9% 10% 10% 6% 7% 10% 4% 12% 6% 12% 7% 9% 6% 5% 13% 12% 6% 9% 8% 8% 11% Public Advocate Bill de Blasio Row % 8% 7% 9% 12% 10% 10% 6% 8% 10% 8% 13% 8% 5% 8% 9% 8% 9% 11% 7% 9% 6% Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer Row % 6% 6% 6% 3% 1% 1% 14% 6% 8% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 7% 5% 7% 5% 4% 8% Publisher of Manhattan Media Tom Allon Row % 2% 1% 3% 3% 1% 1% 6% 0% 2% 2% 1% 1% 4% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3%

Registered Democrats Political Ideology

Unsure Row % 37% 31% 36% 46% 45% 38% 35% 31% 38% 30% 34% 34% 41% 46% 26% 36% 35% 32% 40% 36% 39%

NY1-Marist Poll NYC Registered Democrats: Interviews conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012, N=453 MOE +/- 4.6%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding

NYC Registered Voters Do you want Ray Kelly to run for New York City Mayor in 2013, or not? Yes No Unsure Row % Row % Row % 35% 46% 19% 32% 58% 38% 20% 40% 53% 29% 37% 31% 40% 38% 34% 44% 22% 40% 23% 48% 43% 40% 31% 35% 35% 39% 33% 33% 37% 39% 32% 35% 35% 52% 30% 40% 62% 43% 31% 46% 46% 54% 40% 42% 53% 38% 62% 46% 54% 37% 38% 39% 54% 45% 48% 45% 45% 50% 47% 48% 44% 46% 44% 16% 13% 23% 18% 17% 16% 25% 17% 14% 20% 20% 13% 18% 16% 14% 23% 14% 19% 22% 15% 20% 16% 16% 22% 18% 15% 13% 23% 18% 20%

NYC Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative NYC Borough Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens and Staten Island Income Race Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more White African American Latino Religion Protestant Catholic Jewish Education Age Age Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Gender Interview Type Men Women Landline Cell Phone

NY1-Marist Poll NYC Registered Voters: Interviews conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012, N=742 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

NYC Registered Voters Do you want Anthony Weiner to run for New York City Mayor in 2013, or not? Yes No Unsure Row % Row % Row % 25% 58% 17% 28% 17% 26% 32% 27% 16% 25% 24% 26% 26% 26% 26% 23% 28% 32% 19% 29% 24% 26% 26% 33% 21% 40% 27% 22% 19% 26% 25% 25% 29% 57% 74% 55% 58% 54% 69% 54% 58% 60% 59% 55% 64% 65% 54% 57% 60% 61% 62% 54% 63% 53% 63% 43% 59% 63% 63% 58% 58% 60% 54% 14% 9% 19% 11% 19% 14% 21% 18% 14% 15% 19% 10% 12% 18% 12% 21% 10% 14% 20% 11% 15% 16% 16% 14% 15% 17% 16% 17% 16% 18%

NYC Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative NYC Borough Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens and Staten Island Income Race Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more White African American Latino Religion Protestant Catholic Jewish Education Age Age Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Gender Interview Type Men Women Landline Cell Phone

NY1-Marist Poll NYC Registered Voters: Interviews conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012, N=742 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

NYC Registered Voters Do you want Eliot Spitzer to run for New York City Mayor in 2013, or not? Yes No Unsure Row % Row % Row % 30% 57% 13% 33% 22% 34% 32% 36% 24% 28% 36% 31% 26% 31% 29% 26% 39% 35% 27% 28% 34% 32% 28% 36% 26% 34% 38% 26% 26% 36% 25% 30% 31% 56% 71% 48% 53% 54% 65% 58% 49% 57% 62% 54% 62% 64% 49% 52% 59% 62% 55% 54% 61% 50% 61% 50% 51% 57% 65% 54% 58% 59% 50% 12% 7% 18% 15% 10% 11% 14% 16% 12% 12% 15% 9% 10% 12% 13% 14% 10% 11% 14% 11% 13% 13% 17% 11% 17% 9% 10% 16% 11% 19%

NYC Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative NYC Borough Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens and Staten Island Income Race Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more White African American Latino Religion Protestant Catholic Jewish Education Age Age Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Gender Interview Type Men Women Landline Cell Phone

NY1-Marist Poll NYC Registered Voters: Interviews conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012, N=742 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

NYC Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative NYC Borough Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens and Staten Island Income Race Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more White African American Latino Religion Protestant Catholic Jewish Education Age Age Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Gender Interview Type Men Women Landline Cell Phone

NYC Registered Voters Do you want Alec Baldwin to run for New York City Mayor in 2013, or not? Yes No Unsure Row % Row % Row % 18% 66% 16% 17% 14% 24% 19% 19% 14% 11% 19% 26% 14% 19% 17% 17% 12% 21% 12% 18% 17% 20% 15% 22% 14% 23% 21% 12% 15% 19% 16% 17% 18% 69% 70% 59% 69% 68% 66% 69% 63% 66% 68% 61% 74% 68% 74% 66% 70% 71% 61% 61% 73% 64% 71% 57% 68% 70% 71% 66% 67% 68% 64% 13% 16% 17% 12% 13% 19% 19% 18% 8% 18% 20% 9% 15% 14% 13% 18% 11% 22% 19% 11% 15% 16% 20% 12% 17% 14% 15% 17% 15% 18%

NY1-Marist Poll NYC Registered Voters: Interviews conducted October 3rd through 7th, 2012, N=742 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.