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  • English Bertrand

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    Anugrah Agrawal
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    This document summarizes a 1887 paper by J. Bertrand that solves the probability problem of determining the likelihood that during the counting of votes in an election, the number of votes for one candidate (A) will always exceed the number for the other candidate (B). Bertrand shows that the required probability is (2m - μ)/μ, where m is the number of votes for candidate A and μ is the total number of voters. He derives this formula using a recursive relationship between the number of combinations favorable to preserving the majority throughout the counting. As an example, if there are 60 total voters, candidate A must receive 45 votes for the probability of always leading to be 1/2.

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    This document summarizes a 1887 paper by J. Bertrand that solves the probability problem of determining the likelihood that during the counting of votes in an election, the number of votes for one candidate (A) will always exceed the number for the other candidate (B). Bertrand shows that the required probability is (2m - μ)/μ, where m is the number of votes for candidate A and μ is the total number of voters. He derives this formula using a recursive relationship between the number of combinations favorable to preserving the majority throughout the counting. As an example, if there are 60 total voters, candidate A must receive 45 votes for the probability of always leading to be 1/2.

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    3 views1 page

    English Bertrand

    Uploaded by

    Anugrah Agrawal
    This document summarizes a 1887 paper by J. Bertrand that solves the probability problem of determining the likelihood that during the counting of votes in an election, the number of votes for one candidate (A) will always exceed the number for the other candidate (B). Bertrand shows that the required probability is (2m - μ)/μ, where m is the number of votes for candidate A and μ is the total number of voters. He derives this formula using a recursive relationship between the number of combinations favorable to preserving the majority throughout the counting. As an example, if there are 60 total voters, candidate A must receive 45 votes for the probability of always leading to be 1/2.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    J. Bertrand, Solution dun probl`me, Comptes Rendus de lAcadmie des e e Sciences, Paris 105 (1887) p. 369.

    THEORY OF PROBABILITY. Solution of a problem; by Mr. J. Bertrand. Suppose that two candidates A and B are in an election. The number of the voters is . A obtains m votes and is elected, B obtains m. Find the probability that, during the counting of the votes, the number of votes for A always exceeds those of his competitor. The required probability is (2m )/ . The proof is based on the following formula which is easy to explain. If Pm, indicates the number of combinations which, in the counting of the votes, are favorable to the required event, one has Pm+1,+1 = Pm, + Pm+1, . The general expression of Pm, results from this formula, but it seems probable that such a simple result could be shown in a more direct way. If the number of the voters is 60, it is necessary that the elected candidate obtains 45 votes so that the probability of preserving the majority throughout the poll is equal to 1/2.

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