Celinda Lake President Alysia Snell Partner Michael Perry Partner David Mermin Partner Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D.

Partner Daniel R. Gotoff Partner Joshua E. Ulibarri Partner Tresa Undem Partner Rick A. Johnson Sr. Vice President Robert X. Hillman Chief Operating Officer


Interested Parties

From: David Mermin, Bob Meadow, and Brittany Stalsburg Re: Date: Recent polling on the CA-36 race October 30, 2012

A new Lake Research Partners poll1 of California’s 36th Congressional District shows Democrat Dr. Raul Ruiz leading incumbent Republican Mary Bono Mack by 6 points among voters who have already voted and those who are likely to vote combined. Among only voters who have not yet voted, Ruiz leads by 11 points. Republicans are at a slight advantage in party registration, but CA-36 is clearly leaning Democratic this year, with Obama leading Romney by 7 points. Voters increasingly are hearing about Ruiz and his contrasts with Bono Mack are resonating well. The data also indicate that Bono Mack’s attacks on Ruiz have been weak and ineffective. The race in District 36 remains extremely close and competitive, with Ruiz very well situated to win this seat.


Lake Research Partners conducted a poll of 409 likely 2012 general election voters in California’s 36 Congressional District. Live telephone interviews were conducted in English and Spanish from October 20-22, 2012. Sampling error is +/- 4.9%.


Lake Research Partners / CA-36 poll Page 2 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Both candidates’ unfavorable ratings have increased in the last few weeks, but voters are much more likely to have an unfavorable impression of Bono Mack compared to Ruiz, and the data suggest that some of her attacks on Ruiz have backfired. Still, in the final weeks of the race, it is important for the Ruiz campaign to introduce Ruiz to the 33% of voters who have not already voted and still have no impression of Ruiz.

With only two weeks before Election Day and 7% of voters still undecided, the Raul Ruiz campaign needs to continue introducing Ruiz to independent and swing voters while also continuing to draw a clear contrast with Bono Mack’s record in Washington. There is a clear path to victory with enough resources to communicate with voters in District 36.

For more information about this poll, contact David Mermin at 510-286-2097 or Bob Meadow at 310472-7578.

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