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Company Update: Intime Department Store (01833.HK)
Company Update: Intime Department Store (01833.HK)
October 9, 2012
Retail
Bing QIAN
RESEARCH
BUY
qianbing@cicc.com.cn
Haiyan GUO
SFC CE Ref: AIQ935
guohy@cicc.com.cn
Financial highlights
Whats new
(Rmb mn)
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
6,410
8,743
11,633
13,596
16,584
+/-
31.4%
36.4%
33.0%
16.9%
22.0%
Turnover
1,572
2,289
3,117
3,604
4,406
+/-
28.4%
45.6%
36.2%
15.6%
22.3%
GSP
Net Profit
+/-
463
685
821
958
1267
22.5%
48.1%
19.9%
16.6%
32.2%
331
513
732
808
967
25.7%
54.7%
42.8%
10.4%
19.6%
Recurrent EPS(RMB)
0.17
0.26
0.37
0.40
0.48
Recurrent EPS(HK$)
0.19
0.30
0.45
0.53
0.63
Recurrent PE
47.4
29.6
19.8
17.0
14.2
+/-
ROAA
6.3%
6.9%
7.1%
5.5%
6.5%
ROAE
13.8%
15.6%
16.2%
14.1%
17.2%
P/B
Dividend Yield (x)
4.6
2.9
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.5%
1.8%
2.3%
3.5%
4.6%
Share information
H-share
1833.HK
HK$8.9
HK$9.5
4.84
HK$11.4/6.8
17,888
2,001
Bloomberg code
Share price
Target price
30d avg daily turnover (mn shs)
52w k high/low
Market cap (HK$ mn)
Issued shares (mn)
Last w eek
+9.64
+0.73
+0.81
1m
+16.25
+8.50
+3.55
3m
+8.85
+1.66
-3.99
YTD
+14.61
-1.05
-20.49
52wk performance
140
1833.HK
HSCEI
According to the data from the Hangzhou Trade Board, during the
National Holiday Golden Week (Sept.29~Oct.6), total sales at
Hangzhous department stores HZ Tower, HZ Dept store, Intime
Wulin, Intime Westlake, HZ Jiebai reached Rmb443mn, down
8.68% on last Golden Week (GW). The weak sales performance was
due to the weak consumption environment, as well as the fact more
people chose to travel this GW due to the longer holiday and the
nationwide policy for toll-free travel on expressways.
Comments
Diversified GW sales performance for eastern, central &
western regions. During the holiday, retail and catering
companies monitored by the MoC posted ~15% YoY growth
nationwide, with catering recording the highest segment growth.
Retail growth in eastern regions were around the single digits, but
declined in some cities Guangzhou (-8.9%), Hangzhou
(-8.68%), and Shenzhen (our estimate). Central and western
regions enjoyed double digit growth. However, channel checks
showed demand in the retail market was still weak.
120
100
80
60
40
2011/Oct/08
2012/Jan/08
2012/Apr/08
2012/Jul/08
2012/Oct/08
Risks
Slower sales growth.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
GW of Spring
Festival 2012
National
17.5%
16.2%
Beijing
13.1%
15.5%
Shanghai
17.6%
14.7%
Guangzhou
20.0%
8-30%
Tianjin
26.5%
18.7%
Sichuan
GW of Labor
Day 2012
GW of National
Notes
Day 2012
12.4%
-2.9%
15.0%
Sales growth of retail and catering service companies monitored by Ministry of Commerce
13.6%
9.2%
Retail:9.2%, catering:29%
-8.9%
22.9%
Retail:22.9%, catering:25.4%
21.0%
20.0%
18.5%
18.0%
18.5%
Hefei
25.0%
19.0%
Hangzhou
10.5%
4.9%
-8.7%
Retail:-8.7%, catering:18.04%
Wuhan
18.3%
21.0%
21.0%
20.3%
19.1%
Retail:19.1%, catering:18.6%
14.2%
14.7%
Retail:14.7%, catering:11.4%
Liaoning
Dalian
8.5%
28.4%
27.2%
27.2%
23.1%
25%
20%
13.4%
15%
9.1%
9.3%
10%
9.20%
5%
0%
1Q11
2Q11
1H11
3Q11
4Q11
2011A
1Q12
2Q12
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
2
1H12
GSP
SSSG
Turnover
Other income
Cost of Inventories
Direct Sale margin
Staff Costs
% of total Turnover
Depreciation & Amortization
% of total Turnover
Other Operating Expenses
Operating profit
Net finance cost
Share of profits of associates & JC
Profit Before Taxation
Tax
Effective Tax Rate
Profit for the year
Minority Interest
Equity holders of the parent
Recurrent net profit
Previous
2012E
14,016
10.0%
3,741
533
-1,125
16.5%
-497
13.3%
-382
10.2%
-1,179
1,090
23
275
1,388
-333
24.0%
1,055
-57
998
842
2013E
17,240
14.0%
4,601
800
-1,407
16.4%
-628
13.6%
-485
10.5%
-1,432
1,445
25
357
1,831
-439
24.0%
1,392
-74
1,318
1,010
2011A
11,633
23.1%
3,117
401
-948
16.6%
-428
13.7%
-282
9.1%
-972
887
19
223
1,129
-271
24.0%
858
-37
821
732
New
2012E
13,595
8.0%
3,604
533
-1,091
16.5%
-468
13.0%
-360
10.0%
-1,179
1,038
23
275
1,336
-320
24.0%
1,015
-57
958
808
2013E
16,495
12.0%
4,406
800
-1,354
16.4%
-586
13.3%
-458
10.4%
-1,426
1,381
25
357
1,764
-423
24.0%
1,341
-74
1,267
967
Change
2012E
-3.0%
2.0%
-3.7%
0.0%
-3.1%
0.0%
-5.8%
-0.3%
-5.6%
-0.2%
0.0%
-4.8%
0.0%
0.0%
-3.8%
-3.8%
0.0%
-3.8%
0.0%
-4.0%
-4.0%
2013E
-4.3%
2.0%
-4.2%
0.0%
-3.7%
0.0%
-6.6%
-0.3%
-5.5%
-0.1%
-0.4%
-4.4%
0.0%
0.0%
-3.7%
-3.7%
0.0%
-3.7%
0.0%
-3.9%
-4.3%
1H10A
2H10A
2010A
1H11A
2H11A
2011A
1H12A
2011(+/-)
4,006
4,737
8,743
5,561
6,071
11,633
6,588
33.0%
1H12(+/-)
360
364
724
572
565
1,137
710
57.0%
3,562
4,286
7,847
4,883
5,396
10,279
5,707
31.0%
16.9%
66
79
145
89
105
194
149
33.5%
68.2%
30.8%
18
26
17
22
22
-14.9%
1,094
1,194
2,289
1,558
1,560
3,117
1,871
36.2%
20.1%
360
364
724
572
565
1,137
710
57.0%
24.1%
650
743
1,393
880
884
1,764
990
26.6%
12.5%
Rental income
66
79
145
89
105
194
149
33.5%
68.2%
Management income
18
26
17
22
22
-14.9%
30.8%
153
266
419
213
188
401
333
-4.3%
-875
-964
-1,839
-1,271
-1,361
-2,632
-1,616
43.1%
27.2%
-283
-297
-579
-465
-484
-948
-594
63.8%
27.7%
Staff Costs
-138
-163
-301
-220
-208
-428
-243
42.4%
10.1%
-117
-122
-239
-136
-146
-282
-191
18.2%
40.0%
-339
-382
-720
-449
-523
-972
-589
35.0%
Operating Profit
372
497
868
499
387
887
588
2.1%
-5
-2
11
19
21
42
18
60
135
88
223
139
17.7%
408
518
926
645
484
1,129
747
21.9%
15.8%
Income tax
-93
-132
-225
-139
-132
-271
-171
20.5%
23.0%
22.7%
25.5%
24.3%
21.6%
27.2%
24.0%
22.9%
-0.3%
1.3%
315
386
701
506
352
858
576
22.4%
13.8%
15.2%
CICC comments
Minority interests
-15
-1
-16
-25
-12
-37
-28
127.5%
300
385
685
481
340
821
547
19.9%
251
262
513
415
317
732
458
42.8%
Commision rate
18.2%
17.3%
17.8%
18.0%
16.4%
17.2%
17.3%
-0.6%
-0.7%
21.5%
18.6%
20.0%
18.8%
14.4%
16.6%
16.4%
-3.4%
-2.3%
12.6%
13.7%
13.1%
14.1%
13.3%
13.7%
13.0%
0.6%
-1.2%
D&A / Revenue
10.7%
10.2%
10.4%
8.7%
9.4%
9.1%
10.2%
-1.4%
1.4%
30.9%
32.0%
31.5%
28.9%
33.5%
31.2%
31.5%
-0.3%
2.6%
Operating Margin(/Revenue)
33.9%
41.6%
37.9%
32.1%
24.8%
28.4%
31.4%
-9.5%
-0.6%
Net Margin(/Revenue)
27.4%
32.2%
29.9%
30.9%
21.8%
26.4%
29.3%
-3.6%
-1.7%
22.9%
21.9%
22.4%
26.6%
20.3%
23.5%
24.5%
1.1%
-2.2%
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
3
Suizhou(10)
50% of Yansha
Xiangfan(08)
Wuhan(08)
Xiantao(09)
Wushang24.48%
One store to be opened
E'zhou(08)
Xianning(08)
HZ Baida (08)
Zhej iang
Ningbo1(05)
Ningbo2(05)
HZ Westlake
Jinhua(07)
Jinhua2(08)
Jinhua3(09)
Zhoushan(09)
HZ Qinchun(09)
Self-owned stores
Managed Stores
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
4
2006A
2007A
2008A*
2009A
2010A
2,751
3,475
4,879
6,410
8,743
11,633
13,596
16,584
676
884
1,225
1,572
2,289
3,117
3,604
4,406
24
220
170
314
419
401
533
800
-150
-174
-224
-302
-579
-948
-1,091
-1,354
Staff costs
-57
-85
-161
-217
-301
-428
-468
-586
-21
-41
-115
-185
-239
-282
-360
-458
-146
-253
-426
-596
-720
-972
-1,179
-1,426
-26
-48
-77
-54
-2
19
23
25
84
42
60
223
275
357
1,764
Turnover
Other Income
Cost of Inventories
2011A
2012E
2013E
301
512
476
573
926
1,129
1,336
-81
-138
-113
-123
-225
-271
-320
-423
220
375
363
449
701
858
1,015
1,341
-13
15
13
-16
-37
-57
-74
206
378
378
463
685
821
958
1,267
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
Operating cashflow
2006A
315
475
795
733
1,449
1,718
1,657
2,422
Investment cashflow
-389
-2,121
-1,508
250
-2,611
-2,924
-723
-840
Financing cashflow
193
2,170
714
-725
1,507
1,668
-183
-219
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
3,895
2006A
2007A
2007A
2008A*
2008A*
2009A
Cash
333
777
740
991
1,366
1,779
2,531
135
373
387
323
683
511
511
511
323
314
385
793
442
759
1,018
Account Receivable
Inventories
26
34
52
118
156
194
189
250
147
1,084
1,374
1,345
1,819
3,074
3,257
3,520
64
985
1,481
1,454
2,305
2,955
3,152
3,342
549
1,101
1,235
1,726
1,899
2,089
2,246
6,195
7,191
7,486
12,289
17,241
18,858
21,184
649
450
960
468
492
282
82
270
436
889
1,094
1,206
1,670
1,693
1,984
Other Payables
200
850
792
1,167
2,064
3,547
4,256
5,107
448
530
708
1,204
1,699
2,195
1,338
2,152
3,482
3,592
6,574
9,972
11,052
12,670
908
4,043
3,709
3,894
5,715
7,269
7,805
8,513
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
5
Ticker
Price
Company
Net Profit
Mkt cap
(mn)
2011A
Y oY
EPS
2012E
Y oY
2013E
Y oY
2011A
P/E
2012E
2013E
2011A
11 End ~ 13 End
2012E
2013E
PEG
600694.CH
Dashang
38.12
11,197
274
125.0%
910
232.3%
1,140
25.2%
0.93
3.10
3.88
40.9
12.3
9.8
104.0%
0.1
600859.CH
Wangf ujing
26.23
12,138
574
40.7%
695
21.1%
863
24.2%
1.24
1.50
1.87
21.2
17.5
14.1
22.7%
0.8
002419.CH
11.56
9,250
Parkson
6.47
18,184
1123
507
3368.HK
New World
4.30
7,250
000417.CH
7.21
5,623
600778.CH
Y ouhao
11.35
3,535
600778.CH
Y ouhao(Retailing)
11.35
000501.CH
11.86
600729.CH
600697.CH
18.3%
627
9.2%
783
25.0%
0.72
0.78
0.98
16.1
14.8
11.8
16.8%
0.9
13.2%
1,008
-10.2%
1,091
8.2%
0.49
0.47
0.50
13.1
13.9
12.8
-1.4%
-9.7
5.8%
561
1.4
10.7%
607
8.2%
0.30
0.33
0.36
14.3
12.9
11.9
9.4%
22.5%
469
23.7%
594
26.8%
0.49
0.60
0.76
14.8
12.0
9.5
25.2%
0.5
143
36.2%
338
135.8%
438
29.8%
0.46
1.08
1.41
24.7
10.5
8.1
74.9%
0.1
3,535
125
43.5%
118
-5.8%
142
20.6%
0.40
0.38
0.46
28.3
30.1
24.9
6.6%
4.6
6,016
331
12.9%
394
18.8%
493
25.2%
0.65
0.78
0.97
18.2
15.3
12.2
21.9%
0.7
25.02
9,335
605
14.7%
699
15.6%
875
25.2%
1.62
1.87
2.35
15.4
13.4
10.7
20.3%
0.7
Eurasia
23.15
3,683
162
22.6%
199
23.1%
249
25.2%
1.02
1.25
1.57
22.8
18.5
14.8
24.1%
0.8
600785.CH
Xinhua Dept.
15.25
3,163
17.2%
300
18.7%
357
19.2%
1.22
1.44
1.72
12.5
10.6
8.9
18.9%
0.6
002277.CH
Y our-mart
9.49
3,314
34.4%
358
23.1%
439
22.7%
0.83
1.02
1.26
11.4
9.3
7.6
22.9%
0.4
600858.CH
Y inzuo
10.37
5,393
116
4.3%
258
122.8%
329
27.6%
0.22
0.50
0.63
46.6
20.9
16.4
68.6%
0.3
600828.CH
Chengshang
4.91
2,801
196
41.5%
206
5.0%
251
22.3%
0.34
0.36
0.44
14.3
13.6
11.1
13.3%
1.0
600827.CH
16.1%
1,703
825 .HK
Midwest and Northeast
574
379
252
290
Bailian(Merge)
8.80
15,158
1190
21.1%
1833.HK
Intime
8.94
17,857
732
42.7%
1382
23.3%
0.69
0.80
0.99
12.7
11.0
8.9
19.6%
0.6
19.6%
0.45
0.53
0.63
19.8
17.0
14.2
14.9%
1.1
3308.HK
15.66
30,267
1172
24.4%
1220
4.1%
1700.HK
Springland(Recurrent)
3.96
9,900
583
30.9%
649
11.2%
1,311
7.4%
0.75
0.82
0.88
20.9
19.1
17.8
5.7%
3.3
719
10.8%
0.29
0.34
0.37
13.7
11.8
10.6
11.0%
000987.CH
Guangzhou Friendship
11.85
4,254
367
12.2%
1.1
2.1%
443
18.2%
1.02
1.04
1.23
11.6
11.3
9.6
9.8%
600723.CH
7.73
5,089
346
44.7%
1.2
18.1%
494
21.1%
0.53
0.62
0.75
14.7
12.5
10.3
19.6%
0.6
601933.CH
Y onghui Supertores
23.38
17,954
467
52.8%
000759.CH
Zhongbai holding
6.47
4,406
267
6.3%
-15.9%
539
37.3%
0.61
0.51
0.70
38.5
45.7
33.3
7.4%
6.1
0.6%
313
16.6%
0.39
0.39
0.46
16.5
16.4
14.1
8.3%
2.0
808
10.4%
375
408
967
Supermarket Listcos
393
268
600361.CH
Hualian Hy permarket
5.02
3,342
58
4.6%
8.1%
90
45.2%
0.09
0.09
0.14
58.1
53.7
37.0
25.3%
2.1
002251.CH
BBG
21.20
5,732
260
52.2%
331
62
27.2%
417
26.1%
0.96
1.22
1.54
22.0
17.3
13.7
26.6%
0.7
002264.CH
Nhd-mart
5.77
3,124
146
89.4%
178
22.1%
221
24.0%
0.27
0.33
0.41
21.4
17.5
14.1
23.0%
0.8
980.HK
Lianhua(Recurrent)
6.27
7,020
594
-4.7%
639
7.6%
705
10.3%
0.65
0.74
0.82
9.6
8.5
7.7
9.0%
0.9
6808.HK
Sun Art
9.96
95,015
1,600
55.2%
2,387
49.2%
2,881
20.7%
0.21
0.32
0.39
48.1
30.7
25.4
34.2%
0.9
2,806
25.2%
0.24
0.31
0.38
40.8
32.6
26.1
22.0%
1.5
18.2%
0.63
0.57
0.68
6.1
6.7
5.7
1.1%
6.0
0.77
0.91
18.8
15.6
13.2
16.5%
0.9
15.0
-14.3%
-1.1
6808.HK
Sun Art(Recurrent)
9.96
95,015
1,886
23.0%
2,241
18.9%
814.HK
JKL
3.85
1,587
210
16.4%
182
-13.5%
1025.HK
Wumart(Recurrent)
11.96
15,324
659
24.3%
756
14.8%
894
18.2%
0.63
215
002024.CH
Suning
6.85
50,574
4821
20.2%
3372
-30.1%
3,543
5.1%
0.65
0.46
0.48
10.5
493.HK
GOME
0.84
14,175
1840
-6.2%
-1174
-275
0.13
-0.08
-0.02
6.6
1280.HK
HUIY IN HOUSEHOLD(Recurrent)
0.32
335
46
-60.4%
-35.2%
39
30.1%
0.05
0.04
0.05
5.9
8.6
6.6
-8.2%
-1.0
2.82
3,023
12
441.9%
89
41.2%
0.01
0.06
0.08
258.7
47.7
33.8
176.6%
0.3
07/09
Home Appliance
01/09
002344.CH
30
63
14.3
-
price
5x
10 x
15 x
24 x
price
1x
2x
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
6
3x
4x
10/12
07/12
04/12
01/12
10/11
07/11
04/11
01/11
10/10
07/10
04/10
01/10
10/09
04/09
10/08
07/08
10/12
07/12
04/12
01/12
10/11
07/11
04/11
01/11
10/10
07/10
04/10
01/10
10/09
07/09
0
04/09
01/09
10/08
07/08
04/08
12
01/08
12
(HK$)
04/08
(HK$)
01/08
16
Beijing
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Singapore
United Kingdom