Gerard Kennedy Best Hope For Ontario Liberals?

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President lbozinoff@forumresearch.com 416.960.9603
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Kennedy best hope for Ontario Liberals as leader

PCs currently on track for majority
Toronto, November 1st, 2012 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among Ontarians 18 years of age and older, less than one quarter would vote for the Liberal Party if a provincial election were held tomorrow and the Liberal leader were former MPP and MP Gerard Kennedy (22%). This would put the Liberals in third place, behind the PCs in first (33%) and the NDP in second (28%). Despite this poor showing, this is the best result managed by any of the eight leadership contenders we tested. A Kennedy-led Liberal Party would claim 30 seats on the 107 seat legislature, compared to a majority of 57 for the PCs and 20 for the NDP. In a normal electoral matchup, with no leaders mentioned, the PCs take more than one third of the vote (37%), compared to one third for the NDP (32%). The Liberals would post a third place showing of 22%, while the Greens would attract 7%. In this matchup, the PCs take a majority of 58 seats in the 107 seat house, to 26 for the Liberals and 23 for the NDP. Ontarians 65 years and older, males, and Eastern Ontarians were more likely to back the provincial Conservatives. The provincial Liberal Party had the most support among those residing in the GTA. The NDP also had higher levels of support among those living outside of Eastern Ontario.
TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012 HIGHLIGHTS:

Less than one quarter would vote for the Liberal Party if a provincial election were held tomorrow and the Liberal leader were former MPP and MP Gerard Kennedy (22%). A Kennedy-led Liberal Party would claim 30 seats on the 107 seat legislature, compared to a majority of 57 for the PCs and 20 for the NDP. In a normal electoral matchup, with no leaders mentioned, the PCs take more than one third of the vote (37%), compared to one third for the NDP (32%). The Liberals would post a third place showing of 22%. None of the other 7 candidates for the leadership which were tested drove the Liberals to better than a 17% finish. The leadership contenders we tested were Gerard Kennedy, Sandra Pupatello, Charles Sousa, Dr. Eric Hoskins, Glen Murray, Laurel Broten, Deb Matthews, and Kathleen Wynne.
Inefficient vote distribution leads to low NDP seat count

We have mentioned before that the NDP vote is inefficiently distributed across ridings, rather than being concentrated in several winnable ridings and, thus, they post lower seat totals than the Liberals despite having a higher share of the popular vote. This is an artefact of the 'first-past-the-post' electoral system.
No other candidate breaks 20% for Liberals

None of the other 7 candidates for the leadership which were tested drove the Liberals to better than a 17% finish. The leadership contenders we tested were Gerard Kennedy, Sandra Pupatello, Charles Sousa, Dr. Eric Hoskins, Glen Murray, Laurel Broten, Deb Matthews, and Kathleen Wynne.
Sharp surge in those wanting an election now

One half of Ontarians call for an election now (50%), well up from less than 4-in10 last month (38%) and 3-in-10 the month before (31% - August).
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
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PCs have voter enthusiasm on their side

PC supporters are more enthusiastic about voting for their party (very enthusiastic - 53%) than are either NDP supporters (49%) or, especially, Liberal supporters (very enthusiastic - 40%). "Gerard Kennedy has the same kind of Camelot-style appeal Justin Trudeau has, and he appears to have something like the same effect," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012 HIGHLIGHTS:

One half of Ontarians call for an election now (50%), well up from less than 4-in-10 last month (38%) and 3-in-10 the month before (31% - August). PC supporters are more enthusiastic about voting for their party (very enthusiastic 53%) than are either NDP supporters (49%) or, especially, Liberal supporters (very enthusiastic - 40%). "Gerard Kennedy has the same kind of Camelot-style appeal Justin Trudeau has, and he appears to have something like the same effect," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President.
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Methodology
The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,102 randomly selected residents of Ontario aged 18 or older. The poll was conducted on October 30th to 31st, 2012. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp. Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the countrys leading survey research firms. This and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www.forumresearch.com/polls.asp.
TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Provincial Party Preference Trending [Decided / Leaning]

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Conservative Liberal NDP Green Other
Oct 6th, 2011 Election 35% 38% 23% 3% 1%
01/18/20 12 41% 33% 20% 4% 1%
02/15/20 12 36% 32% 26% 5% 1%
03/13/20 12 40% 28% 23% 8% 1%
03/28/20 12 34% 30% 30% 5% 1%
04/17/20 12 34% 28% 31% 5% 1%
05/14/20 12 34% 27% 32% 5% 1%
06/04/20 12 36% 28% 30% 4% 1%
06/15/20 12 38% 26% 30% 5% 1%
08/15/20 12 38% 27% 28% 6% 1%
25/09/20 12 37% 20% 35% 7% 1%
01/11/20 12 37% 22% 32% 7% 1%
Provincial Election Voting Preference Trending [Decided / Leaning]

%
Oct 30th-31st, 2012 The Forum Poll Sep 25th, 2012 The Forum Poll Aug 15th, 2012 The Forum Poll Jun 15th, 2012 The Forum Poll Jun 4th, 2012 The Forum Poll May 14th, 2012 The Forum Poll Apr 17 , 2012 The Forum Poll Mar 28 , 2012 The Forum Poll Mar 13th, 2012 The Forum Poll Feb 15th, 2012 The Forum Poll Jan 18 , 2012 The Forum Poll Popular Vote October 6th, 2011 Provincial Election Results
th th th
Conservative 37 37 38 38 36 34 34 34 40 36 41 35
NDP 32 35 28 30 30 32 31 30 23 26 20 23
Liberal 22 20 27 26 28 27 28 30 28 32 33 38
Green 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 8 5 4 3
Other 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Want Election Now Trending

75%
50%
25%
0%
Think election should be held Dont think election should be held Dont know
Feb Mar Mar Apr May 15th, 2012 13th, 2012 28th, 2012 17th, 2012 14th, 2012 26% 63% 11% 33% 59% 8% 38% 54% 8% 34% 60% 7% 36% 58% 6%
Jun 4th, 2012 38% 55% 7%
Jun Aug Sep 15th, 2012 15th, 2012 25th, 2012 39% 53% 8% 31% 59% 10% 38% 52% 9%
Nov 1st, 2012 50% 43% 8%
Want Election Now Trending [All Respondents]

%
Oct 30th-31st, 2012 Sep 25th, 2012 Aug 15th, 2012 Jun 15th, 2012 Jun 4th, 2012 May 14th, 2012 Apr 17th, 2012 Mar 28th, 2012 Mar 13th, 2012 Feb 15th, 2012 Sample
Think election should be held 50 38 31 39 38 36 34 38 33 26
Dont think election should be held 43 52 59 53 55 58 60 54 59 63
Dont know 8 9 10 8 7 6 7 8 8 11
1102 851 1021 1098 1038 1072 1084 1131 1065 1218
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Overall Seat Distribution

ON Prov. Election Oct 6th, 2011 Feb 15th, 2012 Mar 13th, 2012 Mar 28th, 2012 Apr 17th, 2012 May 14th, 2012 Jun 4th, 2012 Jun 15th, 2012 Aug 15th, 2012 Sep 25th, 2012 Oct 30th to 31st, 2012
%
Con Lib NDP Green Other
37 53 17 0 0
51 48 8 0 0
57 33 17 0 0
48 44 15 0 0
41 43 23 0 0
48 37 22 0 0
52 37 18 0 0
58 30 19 0 0
55 33 19 0 0
60 23 24 0 0
58 26 23 0 0
Popular Vote, If Liberal Leader Were...

%
Current Provincial Party Preference* Kathleen Wynne Charles Sousa Gerard Kennedy Sandra Pupatello Deb Matthews Glen Murray Laurel Broten Eric Hoskins PC Lib NDP Green Other Undecided
32 34 34 33 35 35 34 34 33
19 16 13 22 15 15 16 15 17
28 31 31 28 30 31 31 32 30
7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
13 12 14 10 12 11 12 13 12
*Numbers featured here for Current Provincial Party Preference differ from those referenced above because undecided respondents have been included for comparison on this table.
Seat Count, If Liberal Leader Were...

%
Current Seat Projection Kathleen Wynne Charles Sousa Gerard Kennedy Sandra Pupatello Deb Matthews Glen Murray Laurel Broten Eric Hoskins PC Lib NDP Green Other
58 61 62 57 60 62 63 59 60
26 21 12 30 20 18 19 16 24
23 25 33 20 27 27 25 32 23
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Current Provincial Party Preference If a provincial election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for?+Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? [Decided / Leaning] Age / Gender
%
Sample Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Another Party
Total 1047 37 22 32 7 1
18-34 91 33 21 28 15 3
35-44 149 31 19 44 6 1
45-54 222 38 26 30 6 1
55-64 289 36 20 36 8 0
65+ 296 43 24 27 4 2
Male 513 43 20 29 6 1
Female 534 30 24 35 9 1
Region
%
Total 1047 37 22 32 7 1
E. Ont 148 46 19 23 10 1
416 201 29 28 36 7 0
905 302 39 25 30 5 1
GTA 503 35 26 32 6 1
SW. Ont 214 38 18 34 9 1
N. Ont 182 32 20 39 8 2
Household Income
%
Total 1047 37 22 32 7 1
<$20K 82 25 24 35 13 4
$20-40K 163 37 26 29 5 2
$40-60K 139 36 19 36 7 2
$60-80K 151 38 20 31 10 1
$80-100K 107 29 23 42 6 0
$100K+ 229 37 23 33 5 1
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Past Provincial Vote

PAST Cons 339 83 4 8 4 0 PAST Lib 384 16 49 30 4 1 PAST NDP 186 7 8 82 2 1 PAST Green 68 7 13 18 62 0 PAST - Other Parties 31 21 12 38 6 24
%
Total 1047 37 22 32 7 1
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Election Should Be Held Now Opinion Do you think an election should be held in Ontario now or not? [All Respondents] Age / Gender
%
Sample Think an election should be held Don't think an election should be held Don't know
Total 1102 50 43 8
18-34 98 61 35 4
35-44 159 48 45 8
45-54 233 45 46 9
55-64 300 48 46 6
65+ 312 39 47 14
Male
Female
535 54 40 6
567 46 45 9
Region
%
Total 1102 50 43 8
E. Ont 156 46 42 13
416 210 46 45 9
905 320 45 47 7
GTA 530 45 46 8
SW. Ont 224 59 36 5
N. Ont 192 52 42 6
Household Income
%
Total 1102 50 43 8
<$20K 85 55 38 7
$2040K 171 48 44 9
$4060K 146 50 43 7
$6080K 154 48 43 9
$80100K 111 46 50 4
$100K+ 241 51 45 4
Current Provincial Party Preference
%
Total 1102 50 43 8
Cons 373 57 35 8
Lib 233 37 54 9
NDP 328 51 44 5
Green 81 43 48 8
Other Parties 32 75 15 10
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Voting Enthusiasm How enthusiastic are you about voting for your favoured party if an election were held today? [All Respondents] Age / Gender
%
Sample Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not very enthusiastic Not enthusiastic at all Don't know
Total 1102 45 26 18 9 3
18-34 98 46 24 18 10 2
35-44 159 42 26 21 9 2
45-54 233 43 24 18 11 3
55-64 300 51 27 14 6 2
65+ 312 45 29 17 5 4
Male 535 48 26 17 8 2
Female 567 43 25 19 10 4
Region
%
Total 1102 45 26 18 9 3
E. Ont 156 41 27 18 9 5
416 210 45 31 17 5 3
905 320 45 26 16 11 2
GTA 530 45 28 17 9 2
SW. Ont 224 47 20 20 10 2
N. Ont 192 47 25 18 7 3
Household Income
%
Total 1102 45 26 18 9 3
<$20K 85 47 30 12 9 3
$20-40K 171 50 22 15 10 3
$40-60K 146 37 31 22 5 5
$60-80K 154 46 33 14 4 2
$80-100K 111 50 22 21 6 1
$100K+ 241 45 26 18 11 1
10
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Current Provincial Party Preference
%
Total 1102 45 26 18 9 3
Cons 373 53 23 14 8 2
Lib 233 40 31 21 5 3
NDP 328 49 28 15 7 1
Green 81 28 34 25 12 0
Other Parties 32 52 13 17 16 1
-30-
For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960-9603 Fax: (416) 960-9602 E-mail: lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
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Gerard Kennedy Best Hope For Ontario Liberals?

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Gerard Kennedy Best Hope For Ontario Liberals?

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MEDIA INQUIRIES:

Lorne Bozinoff, President lbozinoff@forumresearch.com 416.960.9603

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Kennedy best hope for Ontario Liberals as leader

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012 HIGHLIGHTS:

Inefficient vote distribution leads to low NDP seat count

No other candidate breaks 20% for Liberals

Sharp surge in those wanting an election now

PCs have voter enthusiasm on their side

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012 HIGHLIGHTS:

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012

Provincial Party Preference Trending [Decided / Leaning]

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012

Oct 6th, 2011 Election 35% 38% 23% 3% 1%

01/18/20 12 41% 33% 20% 4% 1%

02/15/20 12 36% 32% 26% 5% 1%

03/13/20 12 40% 28% 23% 8% 1%

03/28/20 12 34% 30% 30% 5% 1%

04/17/20 12 34% 28% 31% 5% 1%

05/14/20 12 34% 27% 32% 5% 1%

06/04/20 12 36% 28% 30% 4% 1%

06/15/20 12 38% 26% 30% 5% 1%

08/15/20 12 38% 27% 28% 6% 1%

25/09/20 12 37% 20% 35% 7% 1%

01/11/20 12 37% 22% 32% 7% 1%

Provincial Election Voting Preference Trending [Decided / Leaning]

Want Election Now Trending

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012

Jun 4th, 2012 38% 55% 7%

Nov 1st, 2012 50% 43% 8%

Want Election Now Trending [All Respondents]

Think election should be held 50 38 31 39 38 36 34 38 33 26

Dont think election should be held 43 52 59 53 55 58 60 54 59 63

Overall Seat Distribution

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012

Popular Vote, If Liberal Leader Were...

Seat Count, If Liberal Leader Were...

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012

SW. Ont 214 38 18 34 9 1

Past Provincial Vote

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012

SW. Ont 224 59 36 5

Current Provincial Party Preference

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012

SW. Ont 224 47 20 20 10 2

Current Provincial Party Preference

TORONTO Nov 1st, 2012

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