National Center for Education Statistics

Table 5. Actual and projected percentage changes in PK–12 enrollment in public schools, by region and
Table 5. state: Selected years, fall 1998 through fall 2016
Projected
Region and state Actual 1998–2004 2004-2010 2010-2016

United States ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

4.8 3.1 6.0

Northeast ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
1.5 -2.0 1.0
Connecticut ………………………………………………………………………………………………..
6.0 -2.3 0.1
Maine ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-5.8 -5.4 3.0
Massachusetts ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
1.4 -2.4 0.3
New Hampshire ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….
1.0 -2.8 4.9
New Jersey ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
9.8 2.1 2.3
New York ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
-1.4 -2.8 #
Pennsylvania ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
0.6 -2.4 1.5
Rhode Island ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
1.1 -6.4 -0.7
Vermont ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-6.4 -8.6 2.4

Midwest ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
0.5 -0.2 2.6
Illinois ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
4.3 1.3 0.8
Indiana ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
3.3 2.2 1.5
Iowa ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-4.0 3.1 5.0
Kansas ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
-0.7 0.9 5.0
Michigan ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
1.8 -3.1 0.8
Minnesota ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-2.1 1.5 7.5
Missouri ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
-0.9 1.3 4.9
Nebraska ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-1.8 3.8 6.3
North Dakota ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-12.5 -8.3 -1.1
Ohio ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-0.1 -1.7 1.0
South Dakota ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
-7.3 -2.9 4.3
Wisconsin ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
-1.7 -3.6 4.2

South ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
7.1 7.3 9.2
Alabama ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
-2.4 # 0.9
Arkansas ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2.4 4.8 5.6
Delaware ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
5.1 6.2 7.4
District of Columbia …………………………………………………………………………………………………………
6.7 -5.3 1.8
Florida …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
12.9 9.4 12.3
Georgia ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
10.9 11.9 11.5
Kentucky …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
2.9 3.5 2.9
Louisiana …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
-5.8 0.9 3.4
Maryland …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
2.8 -0.3 6.4
Mississippi …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
-1.4 1.7 1.5
North Carolina …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
10.4 8.2 9.4
Oklahoma ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
0.2 2.9 5.1
South Carolina ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
5.9 2.5 4.2
Tennessee …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
3.9 4.7 7.3
Texas …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
11.7 12.5 13.8
Virginia ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
7.2 4.9 7.7
West Virginia ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-5.8 0.8 0.6

West ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
8.2 3.4 7.1
Alaska ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
-1.8 -1.3 11.5
Arizona …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
23.0 12.3 14.0
California …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
8.7 0.5 4.6
Colorado ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
9.6 6.6 8.2
Hawaii ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
-2.6 5.4 10.9
Idaho ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
4.6 11.2 12.9
Montana ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
-8.3 -1.7 7.3
Nevada ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
28.6 17.2 16.5
New Mexico ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
-0.8 # 5.4
Oregon ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
1.8 0.3 6.9
Utah …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
4.7 19.2 11.0
Washington ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
2.2 -1.7 5.1
Wyoming …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
-11.0 # 5.8
# Rounds to zero.
NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A2,
appendix
SOURCE:A.U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public
Elementary/Secondary Education,” selected years, 1998–99 through 2004–05; and State Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2004.
(This table was prepared December 2006.)
ic schools, by region and

Projected
2004-2016

9.2

-1.0
-2.3
-2.5
-2.1
2.0
4.4
-2.8
-0.9
-7.0
-6.4

2.4
2.0
3.7
8.3
6.0
-2.3
9.1
6.3
10.3
-9.3
-0.7
1.2
0.5

17.1
0.9
10.7
14.0
-3.6
22.9
24.7
6.5
4.3
6.1
3.2
18.3
8.2
6.9
12.3
28.1
12.9
1.3

10.7
10.0
28.1
5.2
15.3
16.9
25.6
5.5
36.6
5.4
7.2
32.4
3.3
5.7
statistics can be found in table A2,
“State Nonfiscal Survey of Public
ary Enrollment Model, 1980–2004.