H Ni, Ngy 26/10/2010

CPI thng 10 v Lm pht li

BO CO V M
KHI PHN TCH V T VN U T
Gim c: Chuyn vin: V Vn Minh Nguyn Minh Giang email: minh.vo@lvs.com.vn email: giang.nguyen@lvs.com.vn

CPI thng 10 v Lm pht li

Theo s liu mi cng b ca Tng cc thng k, CPI c nc thng 10 l 1,05%. So vi thng 9, tng gi chng li tuy nhin so snh vi cc thng 10 ca nhiu nm trc th y l mc tng cao nht. ng gp t trng ln trong vic tng gi l cc hng ha thuc nhm lng thc, thc phm do nhiu nguyn nhn mang tnh s kin v ma v nh i l 1000 nm Thng long, chuyn ma ti cc min, thin tai l lt ti min Trung. C th, CPI nhm hng n v dch v n ung thng 10 tng 1,32% so vi thng 9, cao hn nhiu so vi mc tng 0,79% ca thng trc. CPI lng thc tng 1,89%; thc phm tng 1,22% v n ung ngoi gia nh tng 1,03%. Nhm c ch s gi tng cao nht tip tc l gio dc, CPI thng 10 nhm ny tng 3,9% so vi thng 9. Ch s gi tiu dng, lm pht lun l nhng bin s kinh t v m quan trng tc ng trc tip ti i sng nhn dn, n cc doanh nghip v chnh sch v m. Vic o lng chnh xc ch s CPI l iu kin cn c cc chnh sch hp l. Bi vit ny s gii thiu v ch s lm pht li (Core inflation) v xut s dng ch s ny bn cnh CPI ang dng nhm c c nhng kt qu chnh xc nht v mt l thuyt v thc tin. Lm pht li Lm pht li (core inflation) l ch s phn nh xu th di hn ca lm pht v loi b nhng tc ng ngn hn t bin. nh ngha: Lm pht li l ch s lm pht loi b cc khon mc c bin ng gi ngn hn nh lng thc, nng lng. Vi cch tnh ny, ch s lm pht li rt hu ch phn nh xu hng hin ti v tng lai ca lm pht. N cng l d liu quan trng cho cc cng trnh nghin cu thc nghim v hoch nh chnh sch. L do v ch li s dng lm pht li Lm pht li gip c ci nhn di hn hn v xu hng lm pht. Ch s gi tiu dng l mt bin s v m b tc ng bi nhiu yu t nh xu hng tng gi di hn ca nn kinh t, cung tin, thi v, thin tai mt ma, s thay i ca xut nhp khu. Tt c cc yu t t bin khc s lm mo i xu hng di hn ny v lm m i tm nhn chin lc. Lm pht li gip hn ch cc yu t bin ng trn. S dng do c ch t iu chnh ca cc yu t mang tnh cht chu k v t nhin. Ch s CPI ca Vit Nam b tc ng rt nhiu bi gi lng thc v cc yu t t bin ngn hn. Cc bin ng ngn hn bn thn chng c tnh cht t iu chnh do , nu cn c vo cc bin ng ny ra chnh sch th s khng chnh xc. Lm pht li trnh c sai lm ny. Lm pht li cng l mt ch s nh gi tnh hiu qu ca chnh sch. Vic cng b ch s ny cng khai ra cng chng cng gip tng tnh minh bch ca chnh sch v hn na

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gip cng chng hiu v trnh c nhng phn ng lm pht tm l. Trong iu kin cc tuyn b chnh sch ca NHNN Vit Nam khng nht qun th vic cng b lm pht li s gip tng nim tin chnh sch. Vi cc u im trn v l do trn, theo chng ti, lm pht li nn c bit n v s dng rng ri hn ti Vit Nam. Hin nay c nhiu cch tnh lm pht li khc nhau: Phng php m hnh kinh t lng c pht trin bi Quah v Vahey (1995), m hnh vector t tng quan c cu trc (Structural Vector Autoregressions). Phng php thng k s thao tc trc tip trn cc s liu gi c ca gi hng ha trong nn kinh t. Cc ngn hng trung ng quc gia ty theo thi k s xc nh vic loi b hng ha v yu t no trnh cc tc ng ngn hn. Ngn hng TW Canada Cch tnh lm pht li CPI loi b 8 thnh phn d bin ng nht gm: qu, rau, gas, xng, kh t nhin, li sut th chp, giao thng th v thuc l CPI loi b go v cc sn phm ng cc, la m, rau, qu v in CPI loi b nng lng v thc phm cha ch bin CPI loi b thc n, nng lng, bo him y t CPI loi b rau, qu v xng

Thailand Chu u M c

Cch tnh ch s lm pht li (ngun: website cc ngn hng TW) Lm pht ti Vit Nam Ch s gi c Vit Nam k t nm 2000 n nay tri qua nhiu bin ng:

2000 0.4 1.6 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.9 0.1

2001 0.3 0.4 0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.0

2002 1.1 2.2 -0.8 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

2003 0.9 2.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.6 0.8

2004 1.1 3.0 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.6

2005 1.1 2.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.8

2006 1.2 2.1 -0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5

2007 1.05 2.17 -0.22 0.49 0.77 0.85 0.94 0.55 0.51 0.74 1.23 2.91

2008 2.38 3.56 2.99 2.2 3.91 2.14 1.13 1.56 0.18 -0.19 -0.76 -0.68

2009 0.32 1.17 -0.17 0.35 0.44 0.55 0.52 0.24 0.62 0.37 0.55 1.38

2010 1.36 1.96 0.75 0.14 0.27 0.22 0.06 0.23 1.31 1.05

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4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 00 01 02 03 04 05 CPI 06 07 08 09 10

Ch s CPI (Ngun LVS) Qua th v s liu CPI chng ta nhn thy r nhng bin ng c tnh chu k thi v ca lm pht. iu ny s khin xu th di hn ca lm pht tr nn kh nhn ra hn. c ci nhn n gin nhng kh chnh xc v lm pht li ca Vit Nam v xu hng lm pht di hn, chng ti s dng phng php lc Hodrick-Prescott thu c c lng lm pht li ca Vit Nam. Phng php ny c s dng ph bin nhm loi b cc yu t bin ng ngn hn. (Chng ti s dng d liu CPI ca Vit nam t nm 2000 n nay v s dng phn mm Eviews 5.1 cho cc test b lc v tng quan gia cc bin chnh sch)
4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 00 01 02 03 CPI 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

CPIHPFILTER

Ch s CPI v Core CPI (Ngun LVS) Trong th trn, ng lin mch v dao ng mnh l CPI hin ti c cng b. ng t on nhng trn v n nh hn l CPI c lc bt cc yu t ngn hn. Ch s lm pht li

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theo c lng trn ch l 0,571 % cho thng 9 v 0.556 % cho thng 10. Hin ch s lm pht li ang theo xu hng gim nh trong di hn. Nh vy, chng ta khng cn qu lo lng v nhng hin tng t bin ca ch s CPI trong 2 thng tr li y khi nhn thy xu hng n nh ca lm pht trong di hn. Tng quan gia cc loi lm pht vi chnh sch tin t Lm pht li v mt l thuyt s c tng quan cht ch vi cung tin M2 ca nn kinh t. Chng ta s kim nh xem liu mi tng quan ny c tn ti Vit Nam khng?

th CPI, CPI li v tc tng cung tin M2 (Ngun LVS)

CoreCPI CoreCPI CPI M2Rate

16.251 18.026 -3.970

CPI
18.026 26.763 2.840

M2Rate
-3.970 2.840 230.442

Ma trn tng quan gia M2, CPI v CoreCPI (Ngun LVS) Qua th v ma trn tung quan chng ta thy, cung tin v ch s lm pht li c mi tng quan cht ch (3.97) hn l mi quan h gia cung tin v ch s lm pht (2.84) hin ti cng b. iu ny khng nh tnh u vit v chnh xc hn khi s dng ch s lm pht li trong vic tnh ton d bo v cc iu chnh ca chnh sch tin t quc gia.

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 xut chnh sch Cn c vo nhng phn tch trn v lm pht li v cc mi tng quan gia cc bin s, chng ti xut Tng cc thng k v Ngn hng Nh nc nn cn nhc tham kho cch tnh ch s lm pht li ca cc quc gia trn th gii v cng b ch s lm pht li bn cnh ch s CPI hin ti nn kinh t c thm thng tin chnh xc. Trong trng hp Vit Nam, chng ti cho rng nhm lng thc - thc phm cn c loi b tnh lm pht li. Tuy nhin, do chim t trng rt ln trong cch tnh CPI hin ti (47,9%) cho nn chng ti xut tnh v cng b ch s gi lng thc ring nh l mt ch s quan trng v cn c iu hnh tch bch bi cc B lin quan trc tip nh B Nng nghip v pht trin nng thn, B Cng thng. Trong khi , Ngn hng Nh nc v B Ti chnh th cn c vo ch s lm pht li iu hnh chnh sch tin t, ti kha. Trn y l nhng nghin cu v xut ca chng ti v ch s lm pht li ca Vit Nam.

Ti liu tham kho

Central Bank of Egypt (October 2009). Brochure: The core inflation measure Marianne Johnson (2005) - Core Inflation: A measure of inflation for policy purposes _ Bank for International Settlement Publishing (BIS) Bjornland, H.C. (1997). Estimating Core Inflation - The Role of Oil Price Shocks and Imported Inflation. Discussion Paper No. 200. Research Department, Statistics Norway. Bryan, M. F., and S. G. Cecchetti.( 1993b). Measuring Core Inflation. NBER Working Paper No. 4303. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass.

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Bn bo co ny c lp bi Khi Phn tch & T vn u t Cng ty c phn Chng khon Lin Vit v ch mang tnh tham kho cho nh u t. Thng tin trong bo co c LVS tng hp v phn tch da trn cc ngun tin ng tin cy v ph bin. LVS khng chu trch nhim i vi nhng quyt nh mua bn chng khon ca nh u t do vic s dng ton b hoc mt phn thng tin trong bo co ny.

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