Managing Projects via Control Charts & Trend Analysis?

a PMP saga

PROJECT MANAGEMENT CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE IPD/OUM

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Control charts

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Why Control Charts?

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They will let you know if an element

within your project is out of control or not Control charts using historical, forecasted and actual data can help project managers determine if projects are in control, off scope or over budget

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How are They done?

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Project schedules, baselines, costs and budgets

can all be measured with a few analysis tools Control charts using historical, forecasted and actual data can help project managers determine if projects are in control, off scope or over budget Control charts are a popular and very useful et of stools in Six Sigma projects and process management

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History of Control Charts

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Walter Shewhart first utilized control

charts in 1924 to aid the world of manufacturing. W. Edward Deming added elements to control charts to assess every area of a process or organization when total quality management (TQM) was explored.

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no matter how well the process is designed, there exists a certain amount of nature variability in output measurements - Walter Shewhart, 1924
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A control chart tells you how much variation the process causes. A stable process produces predictable results consistently
-Know Ware, the maker of QI Macros SPC
Excel Software for Six Sigma

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A Common Cause - e.g. Baking a cake

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Common causes might be, Types of oven utilized or high elevation cookingthose items would be considered a common mishap if the cake baking process failed. Essentially, if you dont know the exact temperature of an older oven or high elevation directions are not offered, its acceptable a cake as an example
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A Special Cause - e.g. Baking a cake

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Special causes (in baking that same cake) might be, a recipe that forgets the baking powder as a needed ingredient. The lack of baking powder is a special cause as it causes the cake baking process to fail. Therefore, why the cake baking process failed must first be discovered (e.g. lack of baking powder) and then corrected

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Project Quality Management

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In the Perform Quality Assurance process of PMBOK 4 the quality control tools and techniques discussed are:
Cause

and Effect Diagrams Control Charts Flow-Charting Histogram Pareto Chart and Pareto Analysis Run Charts Scatter Diagrams Statistical Sampling
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Types of Control Chart

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X-Bar & R Control Charts X-Bar & S Control Charts U Charts P Control Charts C Control Charts EWMA chart

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X-Bar and R Charts

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These variable charts utilize the X-Bar or the Mean to determine subgroups The R or Range plots the subgroups based on upper and lower control limits They the most widely utilized charts in project management However, are only successful if 5 or less subgroups are

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X Bar and S Charts

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Using this example of a variable control chart is effective for 5 or more subgroups The S or Standard Deviations are considered in both upper and lower control limits based on the X-Bar or Mean
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U Charts
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These variable types of control

charts utilize an upper and lower range Elements falling in the upper range need attention and analysis in order for the problem to be corrected

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p Control Charts
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This attribute-type chart is effective when elements are not equal A p Control Chart might be used to determine how many accidents occur each day at a chosen intersection
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np Charts
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A special version of the p chart

Follows the same principle as the p chart, but plots

the number of instances in a category over time rather than the proportion in the category The name "np" derives from the convention of using "n" to refer to sample size By multiplying sample size by proportion (n x p) you get the actual number in a category

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c Control Charts
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Another attribute-type control chart,

the c Control Chart explores elements that are nonconforming A c Control Chart might be used to explore mass-production of one similar product where the elements per unit do not conform to the norm
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EWMA chart
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The Exponentially Weighted Moving

Average (EWMA) chart Provides quicker information about shifts in process performance. Ideal when identifying a process shift quickly is critical

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Trend analysis

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Trend Analysis Uses CCs

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What a trend analysis reveals is whether the

project or an element of the project is where it should be or way off track

Pareto and control charts are the most

popularly used methods of analyzing trends along with simple product sampling

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Pareto Charts With Microsoft Excel

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Options for Modifying the Pareto Chart

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A trend analysis is performed using run charts and involves mathematical techniques to forecast future outcomes based on historical results
PMBOK Version 4

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What a trend analysis reveals is whether the project or an element of the project is where it should be or way off track - Jean Shied

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Analysing Trends
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Estimators, Pareto and control charts are the

most popularly used methods of analyzing trends along with simple product sampling Basically a trend can be any element within the project that needs further analysis.
If

utilizing Six Sigma or Lean, how many defects are occurring? Are milestones set in the project scope reached? If using Total Quality Management, is quality where it should be or are areas lacking?
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Concepts of Trends
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Build Corporate Dashboards

- Build executive dashboards with KPIs, initiatives and more

Use actual product samplings and compare

them to set quality standards

Determine what is acceptable and what unacceptable?

Use budgeting calculators

If the actual data varies from the planned or expected data, your analysis charts will show variations

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References
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PMBOK Versions 4/5 Media Gallery Bright Hub PM Project Management Questions.com Jean Shied & Linda Richter, 5/29/201 Heidi Wiesenfelder , 1, 7/6/2011 Wikipedia

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