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The Solow Growth Model: Apec 3006, Spring 2006 Michinori Uwasu
The Solow Growth Model: Apec 3006, Spring 2006 Michinori Uwasu
, the economy brings d c units of consumption to each worker that is the same
as the original consumption level a c. So, until this point, the economy has lower consumption
levels, but thereafter the economy can enjoy higher consumption levels than the original one and
when it getstothesteady state, it can havetheoptimal consumption level. Theconsumption path
of consumption discussed hereis drawn in Figure5.
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c
ss
c
gold
ss
time
c
Increase s capital stock = k* capital stock = k
gold
ss
Figure5: Consumption path when changing a savings ratefrom: to :
jc|o
5 Population Growth
Thusfar wehavexed thenumber of labor (=population) in themodel. TheSolowmodel assumes
that labor forceisgrowingover timeat a rateof :. Thismeans that population growth ratein the
model is exogenous. So, wecan demonstratea comparativestatic with respect to :. Beforegoing
intoit, weneed gureout howpopulation aectstheeconomy. Population growth spreadsthecap-
ital stock morethinly tolarger population, soit hasanegativeeect on capital stock accumulation.
In particular, theaccumulation rulefor theeconomy with population growth becomes:
/
t+1
= i
t
(c +:)/
t
+/
t
or 4 / = /
t+1
/
t
=i
t
(c +:)/
t
where (c +:)/
t
is called a break-even investment curve because it is the amount of investment
necessary to keep capital stock constant. SeeAppendix for thederivation of theequation.
Steady State Steady stateof theeconomy can beobtained in thesameway. In steady state,
capital stock per worker will beinvariant, so wehave
4 / =i (c +:)/ =0.
Givenaspecicfunctional formof aproductionfunctionandparameter values, wecanndasteady
stateof a particular economy (this will bea homework question).
Now, we are ready to demonstrate how population aects steady state of the economy. A
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y, i
k
y=f(k)
i=sf(k)
(+n
H
)k
(+n
L
)k
k
Lss
k
Hss
y
Lss
y
Hss
0
Figure6: ComparativeStatic Analysis for Population Growth
graphical presentation is the best way to do it. The implications of Figure 6 is as follows. 1)
Population growth rate shifts the break-even curve. Given :
1
< :
1
, (c +:
1
)/ has a atter
slope than (c +:
1
)/. 2) Thus the corresponding steady state also shifts. When :
1
leads the
economy to thesteady state/
1cc
, whereas :
1
leads theeconomy to thesteady state/
1cc
. Clearly,
/
1cc
< /
1cc
. Figure7-7in Mankiw(p203) presents international evidence: high population growth
rates arenegatively associated with incomeper worker, which might support theprediction by the
Solowmodel. (Again why "might"?)
Golden Rule Given theaccumulation rule, thegolden ruleis:
'11 =: +c.
So, using this rule and the steady state condition, we can nd a savings rate that maximizes
consumption in steady state.
Summary 1
The steady state is a long-term equilibrium. The Solow model shows how an economy is
changing over timeuntil it gets to steady state.
Savings rates determine the level of per worker capital stock in steady state. Higher the
savings rate, thehigher thelevel of per worker capital stock.
Thegolden ruleof capital stock maximizes theconsumption level in thelong-term.
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Population growth has a negative impact on capital stock accumulation. The higher the
population growth rate, thelower level of steady state.
However, neither factor can explain sustained economic growth as observed in developed
countries. In thecurrent model, capital stock per worker is invariant in steady state.
6 Technological Progress
Labor augmenting technology
To introduce a technology element into the model, we start with a new aggregate production
function:
1 =1(1, 1 1)
where 1 = output, 1 = capital stock, 1 = labor (workers), and 1 is eciency of worker. 1 1
in theproduction function is called eectiveworkers. In theeconomy, eciency of workers may be
determined by knowledge, experience, and skills of averageworkers. Becausetheeciency variable
is attached to labor input, it is called labor-augmenting technology: an increasein 1 can increase
output level as if morelabor input is used. In theSolowmodel, 1 is growing at a constant rateof
q (so, q is an exogenous variable).
We assume that the production function exhibits CRS. This means that we can divide both
sides by 1 1 to obtain:
j =)(/)
wherej =
Y
11
is output per eective worker, and / =
1
11
is capital stock per eective worker.
Likepopulation growth, technological progressaectscapital accumulation. Theruleof capital
accumulation (per eectiveworker) is now:
/
t+1
= i
t
(c +: +q)/
t
+/
t
or 4 / = /
t+1
/
t
=i
t
(c +: +q)/
t
where(c +: +q)/ is called a break-even investment curve becauseit is theamount of investment
necessary to keep capital stock constant. Appendix shows howthis equation is derived.
Steady state
Denition 3 Steady statein theeconomy with technological progress is an equilibriumstatewhere
/ (capital stock per eective worker) is invariant.
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y, i
k
y=f(k)
i=sf(k)
(+n+g)k
k
ss
y
ss
0
Figure7: An Economy with Technological Progress and Population Growth
Thus thesteady statecondition is
4 / =i (c +: +q)/ =0
To obtain a steady state, weneed solvingthecondition for /. Figure7presents thesteady stateof
an economy with technological progress.
So, is thereany dierence? Theanswer is yes. Too seethis recall thedenition of each variable
is given by (seeTable2):
Table2: Steady StateGrowth Rates with Technological Progress
Vars Steady StateGrowth Rate
/ (capital stock per eectiveworker) 0
j (output per eectiveworker) 0
1 (labor/ population) :
1 (eciency of worker) q
1
1
=/ 1 (capital stock per worker) q
Y
1
=j 1 (output per worker) q
1 =/ 1 1 (capital stock) : +q
1 =j 1 1 (output) : +q
The implication of the information is as follows. In an economy with technological progress,
capital stock per eectiveworker is not growingin steady state. However, capital stock per worker
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is growing at a rate of q (a rate of technological progress) even in steady state. Why? This is
because 1 is growing at q in all periods by assumption and because
1
1
is dened by / 1. So,
even if / is not growing in steady state,
1
1
is growing at q. Moreover, this means that
Y
1
, output
per worker (equivalent to individual income) is also growing at q even in steady state. Likewise,
capital stock and total output in theeconomy aregrowing at : +q. Thebottomlineof theSolow
model is: technological progress explains sustained economic growth in the context of individual
living standards.
The role of the government Researchers havefound what factors determinetheeciency
of workersin an economy. Thosefactorsinclude; education, health, infrastructure(road, highways,
airport, port, utilities, to name a few), law&order, and security (police, re ghting, military
services). Notethat many of the factors that aect eciency of an economy involve public goods
elements, andit iswell knownineconomicsthat marketsthemselvescannot provideenoughamounts
of publicgoods. Usually, governmentsaretheonlyagent that haveanabilitytoprovidethesucient
amount of public goods, which implies that theroleof thegovernment is important in (sustained)
economic growth.
Golden Rule With theaccumulation rule, thegolden ruleis given by:
'11 =: +c +q.
Usingthis ruleand thesteady statecondition, wecan nd asavingsratethat maximizesconsump-
tion in steady state.
Summary 2
TheSolow model shows how capital stock accumulates over time, determines the long-term
equilibrium, and shows how savings, population growth, and technology aects an economy
in thelong-term.
Savings and population growth determine the steady state level; however, neither variable
explains sustained economic growth.
Technological progress can explain economic growth in steady state. In steady state, output
per worker is growingat a rateof technological progress.
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Governments can play a key rolein improving eciency of workers. Good education/ health
services, good infrastructure, strict law&order systems, and security improvetheeciency of
an economy and thus support sustained economic growth.
The rate of technological progress is exogenous in the Solow model. Thus the Solow model
itself does not determinesustained economic growth.
Appendix
1. Data Although it is very important to takea closelook at real data in studyingeconomic
growth, wehaveno timetodo so. However, alargenumber of useful datasources for international
economies arereadily available. If you areinterested, try thefollowing:
Summers-HestonPennWorldData(Universityof Pennsylvania): Veryuseful. Containsmany
key variables such as GDP, investment, labor forcefor most economies from1950. Data can
bedownloaded via http:/ / pwt.econ.upenn.edu/
WorldDevelopment Indicators(WorldBank): AvailableinWaitelibrary, or visit http:/ / www.worldbank.o
Human Development Report (United Nations): Estimates uniquevariables for human devel-
opment. Availablein Waitelibrary or visit http:/ / hdr.undp.org/ .
ThePenn World Data areused to construct thegureand tablebelow.
2. Examples
.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
6
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
8
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
7
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
6
Year
G
D
P
p
e
r
c
a
p
i
t
a
Chad
South Korea
Why somecountries growfast whileothers do not? Chad and South Korea 1960-1998 (Note: 1996prices)
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Why somecountries arerich whileothers arenot?
TheLiving Standards in 12 most populous countries 1998
Country GDP per Capita Population Country GDP per Capita Population
United States 31,049 275,675 Indonesia 3,521 203,678
J apan 23,345 126,410 China 3,203 1,238,599
Germany 21,724 82,047 India 2,464 978,672
Mexico 8,060 95,846 Pakistan 2,053 131,582
Russia 6,948 146,909 Bangladesh 1,655 125,629
Brazil 7,130 165,874 Nigeria 1,025 120,827
Note: GDP per Capita (in US dollars), Population (in thousand).
3. Mathematical Notes 3-1. Derive4 / =i (c +:)/.
Noting that
4 1 =
d1
dt
=1 c1
d1,dt
1
= :,
wehave
/
t+1
/
t
= 4 /
t
d/
dt
=
d(1,1)
dt
=
d1
dt
1
1
1
1
2
d1,dt
1
=
1 c1
1
1
1
d1,dt
1
= i c/ /:
! 4 / =i (c +:)/.
3-2. Derive4 / =i (c +: +q)/.
Noting that
d1,dt
1
= :
d1,dt
1
= q
d(11),dt
11
=
o1ot
1
1 +
o1ot
1
1
11
=: +q,
17
wehave
/
t+1
/
t
= 4 /
t
d/
dt
=
d(1,11)
dt
=
d1
dt
1
11
1
(11)
2
(
d1
dt
1 +
d1
dt
1)
=
1 c1
11
1
11
(
d1,dt
11
1 +
d1,dt
11
1)
= i c/ /(: +q)
! 4 / =i (c +: +q)/.
3-3 We show that shares of each input factor is equal to the elasticity of each input. Assume
theaggregateproduction function is given by:
1 = 1(1, 1)
Let r denote a rental rate of capital, and let n denote a wage rate. We want to show that
'11 =r
1
Y
and '11 1 =n
1
Y
. Theeconomy maximizes its prot:
max =1 n1 r1 =1(1, 1) n1 r1
Therst order conditions are:
d
d1
!
d1
d1
=n
d
d1
!
d1
d1
=r
Multiply both sides in therst equation by 1 and dividethemby 1 yields
d1
d1
1
1
= n
1
1
! '11
1
1
| {z }
elasticity of labor
= n
1
1
|{z}
labor share
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For capital stock,
d1
d1
1
1
= r
1
1
! '11
1
1
| {z }
elasticity of capital stock
= r
1
1
|{z}
capital stock share
Cobb-Douglas Production function A Cobb-Douglas production function is the most
commonly used CRS production function:
1 =1
c
1
1 c
Theelasticities of each inputs for Cobb-Douglas aregiven by:
'11
1
1
= c
'11
1
1
= 1 c.
So, the factor shares for capital stock and labor are given by c and 1 c, respectively. This is
very convenient in practicebecause you need no calculation to nd capital shareonce you havea
production function.
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