Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study

Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study
Preliminary Findings
Tom Maziarz, CT DOT presentation to Greenway Commission

SECCOG, June 19, 2013
Toll Revenue Study

Part of Financial Plan Financial plan requirement

Route 11
(existing)
to demonstrate ability to pay sources & amounts of funding timelines for funding availability
Toll Revenue Study
Route 11
Extension
Can tolling generate enough revenue to pay a meaningful portion of the cost?
Scope of Tolling Study:

wide range of tolling options broad geographic scope
Tolling Study
Consultant: expertise & experience in tolling studies Analysis based on: extensive data collection traffic modeling special survey of drivers special toll assessment methods Planning-Level Results: reasonable estimates of revenue investment-grade analysis is typically next step if planning study indicates good revenue potential Driver Survey Sites
Cost & Financing Assumptions:

Cost:
$1.4 Billion to construct
Financing:
Bond full amount (for comparative purposes)
Annual debt payment = $121 Million
Variety of tolling options evaluated

Toll collection methods:
Cash & electronic Electronic only
Toll rates
What is traveler willing to pay? What rate yields best revenue?
Back-office & administrative functions

How do you manage day-to-day collection, processing, & administration of system?
For planning purposes we used:

Lowest cost collection & back-office options
o all-electronic collection o private contractor services
Best rate for revenue

o about $0.20 per mile higher rate will trigger: more toll avoidance & lower revenue common rate on many new facilities o $1.00 or $2.00 flat rate at interchange
Route 2
What was geographic scope?

Toll collection locations:
Route 11 extension
Route 11 (existing)
Locations beyond 8.5 mile project o Existing Route 11 o Route 2 (alternative to Route 11) o Interchange of Rt 11, I-95, I-395
Why we explored broad geographic scope

Need to consider alternate routes & diversions
Route 11 extension Interchange
Understanding full range of revenue options & yields leads to better informed decisions
Toll Location Alternatives

1. Route 11: extension only
toll the 8-mile Route 11 extension only.
2. Route 11: extension + existing

toll all 16 miles of Route 11 (existing plus extension).
3. Route 11 (all) & Route 2

toll all 16 miles of Route 11 plus 13 miles of Route 2.
4. Routes 11 extension & I-95 interchange

toll Route 11 extension plus I-95/I-395 interchange.
5. I-95 interchange only

toll I-95/I-395/Route 11 interchange only
7
Fitchville Rd. Haughton Rd. Norwich Ave. Parum Rd. Dr Foote Rd. Lake Hayward Rd.
354
Otrobando Ave. 395
Chestnut Hill Rd.
Scott Hill Rd.
Bozrah St.
Wawecus St.
Toll Location Alternatives:
Alternative 1
Route 11: Extension Only

East Haddam Rd.
Witch Meadow Rd.
Variations Tested:
Chesterfield Rd. Turner Rd.
toll rates: (per mile)

o o o o
Hartford Tpke.
Grassy Hill Rd.

161
395
$0.20 ** $0.15 $0.10 $0.05
Flanders Rd.
collection methods:
o electronic with cash option o electronic only** All Electronic Tolls (AET)
toll
95
395
** $0.20 & AET assumed for all

95
alternatives presented
Alternative 1 Route 11 Extension Only
Findings
Revenues:
$5.9 million annually (gross) Low revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost
Traffic:
Toll on Rt 11 extension discourages drivers from using Rt 11 extension 60-70% of drivers remain on Route 85
Alternative 1 Route 11 Extension Only

2011 current traffic Route 85 Route 11 Corridor total 15,000 0 15,000 2020 Build no toll 2,900 18,700 21,600 2020 Build with toll 11,900 7,700 19,600
Turner Rd. East Haddam Rd.
Tolling removes less traffic from Route 85. about 9,000 cars return to Rt 85
395 Hartford Tpke.
354
85
Parum Rd. Dr Foote Rd. Grassy Hill Rd.
95
11
Lake Hayward Rd. 161
11 82
Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry
95
Conclusion: Not viable alternative

Does not remove sufficient traffic from Route 85 Very low revenue potential
10
Fitchville Rd. Haughton Rd.

Norwich Ave. Parum Rd. Dr Foote Rd. Lake Hayward Rd.
354
Otrobando Ave. 395
Chestnut Hill Rd.
Scott Hill Rd.
Bozrah St.
Wawecus St.
Alternative 2
Route 11: Extension + Existing

East Haddam Rd.
Witch Meadow Rd.
same as Alt 1, but adds a toll to existing Rt 11
toll
Chesterfield Rd. Turner Rd. Grassy Hill Rd.

161
395
toll
Flanders Rd.
Hartford Tpke.
95
395
95
Alternative 2 Route 11: Extension plus Existing
Findings
Revenues:
$8.5 million annually (gross)
Low revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost
Traffic:
Problem: toll adds traffic to Route 85 (north of Rt 82)
12
Alternative 2 Route 11: extension plus existing

2011 current traffic Route 85 Route 11 Corridor total 2,400 9,700 12,100 2020 Build no toll 1,600 15,300 16,900 2020 Build with toll 8,600 5,300 13,900
395 Turner Rd. Hartford Tpke.
Tolling existing Rt 11 adds traffic to Route 85

(1,600 to 8,600)
354
95
Parum Rd. Dr Foote Rd.
85
85
11
Grassy Hill Rd. 161
11
82
95
Conclusion: Alt 2 is not a viable option given low revenues & local traffic impacts
Fitchville Rd. Haughton Rd.
Otrobando Ave. 395
Norwich Ave.
Parum Rd. Dr Foote Rd. Lake Hayward Rd.
354
Chestnut Hill Rd.
Scott Hill Rd.
Bozrah St.
Wawecus St.
toll
Alternative 3
Route 11 (all) + Route 2

Witch Meadow Rd. East Haddam Rd.
same as Alt 2, but adds a toll to Route 2

Chesterfield Rd. Turner Rd.
toll
Grassy Hill Rd.

161
395
toll
Flanders Rd.
Hartford Tpke.
95
395
95
Alternative 3 Route 11 (all) plus Route 2
Findings
Revenues:
$28.0 million annually (gross)
moderate revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost
Traffic:
Problem: tolling diverts traffic from Route 2 to other roads
15
Alternative 3 - Toll Route 11 plus Route 2

2011 current traffic 2020 Build no toll 2020 Build with toll
Route 2
27,200
33,100
15,300
tolling Rt 2 diverts 18,100 drivers to other roads

(Rt 2 drops from 33,100 to 15,300)
Norwich Ave. Parum Rd. Dr Foote Rd. Lake Hayward Rd. Chestnut Hill Rd.
2
354
Haughton Rd.
Fitchville Rd.
32
32 11
New London Rd.
Scott Hill Rd.

Bozrah St. 395
16
Volume Diversion routes Diverted Norwich Av -Fitchville Rd 6,700
Where do the 18,100 cars go?
Route 82 Route 32 Other Local Roads I-395
4,500 3,600 2,000 1,300 18,100
Norwich Ave.
Parum Rd. Dr Foote Rd. Lake Hayward Rd. Chestnut Hill Rd.
2
354 Scott Hill Rd. Bozrah St.
Fitchville Rd.
32
11
32
New London Rd.
Route 82:
4-5 miles south
395
Conclusion: Despite revenue potential, Alt. 3 is not viable option.

17
354
Otrobando Ave. 395
Chestnut Hill Rd.
Scott Hill Rd.
Bozrah St.
Wawecus St.
Alternative 4
Route 11 extension + Interchange

East Haddam Rd.
Witch Meadow Rd.
same as Alt 1, but adds toll to 95/395/11 interchange

161
395
toll
Flanders Rd.
Hartford Tpke.
95
395
toll
95
Alternative 4 Route 11 Extension plus Interchange
Findings
Revenues:
$46 - $78 million annually (gross)
o o $46 million = $1.00 toll at interchange (plus $0.20/mile on Route 11 extension) $78 million = $2.00 toll at interchange (plus $0.20/mile on Route 11 extension)
High revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost
Note: Federal law currently prohibits adding tolls to an Interstate highway unless it is part of a
special pilot program. However, federal transportation act must be reauthorized in less than 2 years and restrictions might be changed.
Traffic:
Route 85: Results similar to Alt 1 (tolls on Rt 11 extension only). Placing a toll on Route 11 fails to remove the desired amount of traffic from Route 85. I-95 & I-395: Diversion from I-95 & I-395 (at $1.00 toll) is about 9% but further analysis required. 19

Route 85 & Route 11 volumes
2011 current traffic 2020 Build no toll 2020 Build with toll
Tolling Rt 11removes less traffic from Route 85. about 10,000 cars return to Route 85
395 Turner Rd. Hartford Tpke.
Route 85
Route 11 Corridor total
15,000 0 15,000
1,300 22,900 24,200
11,500 9,200 20,700

East Haddam Rd. Chesterfield Rd.
354
85
95
11
Lake Hayward Rd. 161 Flanders Rd.
11
82
Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry Ramp Toll Zone / Gantry
Toll on Rt 11 = $0.20/mile
Toll at interchange
95
= $1.00
20

I-95 & I-395 traffic volumes
2020 Build no toll 2020 Build with toll traffic diverted by toll
tolling interchange diverts about 9% of traffic from
I-95 & I-395
I-95 I-395
79,700 27,400
72,100 25,000
7,600 (10%) 2,400 (9%)
Corridor total
107,100
97,100
10,000 (9%)
Turner Rd. East Haddam Rd.
395 Hartford Tpke.
354
Chesterfield Rd.
85
95
11
Lake Hayward Rd. 161 Flanders Rd.
11
82
Toll at interchange
95
= $1.00
21
Conclusion: Not viable alternative

Good revenue potential But it does not remove sufficient traffic from Route 85
395
Turner Rd. Hartford Tpke.
354
East Haddam Rd.
Chesterfield Rd.
85
95
11
Lake Hayward Rd. Witch Meadow Rd. 161 Flanders Rd.
11 82
Toll at interchange
95
= $1.00
22
354
Otrobando Ave. 395
Chestnut Hill Rd.
Scott Hill Rd.
Bozrah St.
Wawecus St.
Alternative 5
Interchange only
East Haddam Rd.
Witch Meadow Rd.
Add a toll to 95/395/11 interchange only

161
395
Flanders Rd.
Hartford Tpke.
95
395
toll
95
Alternative 5 Interchange only
Findings
Revenues
$38 - $69 million annual gross (versus $46-$78M for Alt 4)
o o $38 million = $1.00 toll $69 million = $2.00 toll
high revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost
Note: Federal law currently prohibits adding tolls to an Interstate highway

unless it is part of a special pilot program. However, federal transportation act must be reauthorized in less than 2 years and restrictions might be changed.
Traffic:
Route 85: no impact from tolls I-95 & I-395: Diversion from I-95 & I-395 (at $1.00 toll) is about 15% but further analysis required. 24

2020 Build no toll 2020 Build with toll traffic diverted by toll
I-95
I-395 Corridor total
79,700
27,400 107,100
68,200
23,000 91,200
11,500 (14%)
4,400 (16%) 15,900 (15%)
tolling interchange diverts about 15% of traffic from I-95 & I-395
395
Turner Rd. Hartford Tpke.
354
East Haddam Rd.
Chesterfield Rd.
85
95
11
Lake Hayward Rd. Witch Meadow Rd. 161 Flanders Rd.
11 82
Toll at interchange
95
= $1.00
25

Conclusion: Warrants further study.
Good revenue potential
Traffic impacts need further study.

o to identify which roads are impacted o to determine if we can to reduce diversions
Turner Rd. 395 Hartford Tpke.
354
East Haddam Rd.
Chesterfield Rd.
85
95
11
Lake Hayward Rd.
Witch Meadow Rd. 161 Flanders Rd.
11 82
Toll at interchange
95
= $1.00
26
Financial Summary:
Preliminary Estimates of Gross Toll Revenues

(assumes all electronic tolling at $0.20/mile)
1 - Rt 11 Extension Only 2 - Rt 11: Extension + Existing 3 - Rt 11 (all) + Rt 2 4A - Rt 11 Ext.+ Interchange ($1.00) 4B - Rt 11 Ext. + Interchange ($2.00) 5A Interchange Only ($1.00) 5B Interchange Only ($2.00)
millions: $0
$8.5
$5.9 $8.5
$19.5 Route 11 Route 2 I-95 I-395
$28.0
$10.4
$6.0
$29.9
$46.3
$18.5
Annual Debt Service
$6.1
$54.0
$78.6
$121 (1)
$28.3
$9.5
$37.8
$18.0
$51.0
$69.0
$80 $100 $120
$20
$40
$60
(1)
$1.7 billion bond issue. Based on total 2020 estimated project cost & additional 30% for bond sales & capitalization of interest cost. Assumes 30-year bond term, 24-year earning period, & 5% interest rate.
Conclusions
1. Alternative 5 only potentially viable tolling option
If tolling is to be part of financial plan, Alt 5 (or some variation) is most viable
2. Alternative 5 needs further analysis

Traffic impacts: requires detailed assessment
o Where traffic is diverted to & why?
Are these long distance trips that will shift to Rt 9, Rt 44, Rt 6, ? Are these shorter trips that will shift to local roads?
o Can these diversions be avoided or managed?

Adjust toll rates & policies Highway exit & entrance location & design
Revenue estimate: update & revise revenue estimate as well

28
Next Steps
Continue with full Route 11 scope of work (all 3 tracks):
1. Environmental analysis 2. Design plans 3. Financial plan Financial plan:
Traditional funding sources
o o Federal & state Timelines for availability of funds
Additional tolling analysis for Alt 5 (or version of this)

o o o Detailed diversion analysis Revised revenue analysis Public engagement
Phasing options
29

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Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study

Tom Maziarz, CT DOT presentation to Greenway Commission

Toll Revenue Study

Toll Revenue Study

Scope of Tolling Study:

Cost & Financing Assumptions:

Variety of tolling options evaluated

Back-office & administrative functions

For planning purposes we used:

Best rate for revenue

What was geographic scope?

Why we explored broad geographic scope

Toll Location Alternatives

2. Route 11: extension + existing

3. Route 11 (all) & Route 2

4. Routes 11 extension & I-95 interchange

5. I-95 interchange only

Otrobando Ave. 395

Chestnut Hill Rd.

Scott Hill Rd.

Toll Location Alternatives:

Route 11: Extension Only

Witch Meadow Rd.

toll rates: (per mile)

Grassy Hill Rd.

$0.20 ** $0.15 $0.10 $0.05

** $0.20 & AET assumed for all

Alternative 1 Route 11 Extension Only

Alternative 1 Route 11 Extension Only

Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry

Conclusion: Not viable alternative

Fitchville Rd. Haughton Rd.

Otrobando Ave. 395

Chestnut Hill Rd.

Scott Hill Rd.

Toll Location Alternatives:

Route 11: Extension + Existing

Witch Meadow Rd.

same as Alt 1, but adds a toll to existing Rt 11

Chesterfield Rd. Turner Rd. Grassy Hill Rd.

Alternative 2 Route 11: Extension plus Existing

Alternative 2 Route 11: extension plus existing

Tolling existing Rt 11 adds traffic to Route 85

Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry

Fitchville Rd. Haughton Rd.

Otrobando Ave. 395

Chestnut Hill Rd.

Scott Hill Rd.

Toll Location Alternatives:

Route 11 (all) + Route 2

same as Alt 2, but adds a toll to Route 2

Grassy Hill Rd.

Alternative 3 Route 11 (all) plus Route 2

moderate revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost

Alternative 3 - Toll Route 11 plus Route 2

tolling Rt 2 diverts 18,100 drivers to other roads

New London Rd.

Scott Hill Rd.

Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry

Volume Diversion routes Diverted Norwich Av -Fitchville Rd 6,700

Where do the 18,100 cars go?

Route 82 Route 32 Other Local Roads I-395

4,500 3,600 2,000 1,300 18,100

Conclusion: Despite revenue potential, Alt. 3 is not viable option.

Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study

Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study