OperationsResearch

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Unit11
Structure

ProjectSchedulingandPERTCPM

11.1.Introduction 11.2.BasicdifferencebetweenPERTandCPM 11.2.1 PERT 11.2.2 CPM 11.2.3 ProjectschedulingbyPERTCPM

11.3.PERT/CPMnetworkcomponentsandprecedencerelationship 11.3.1 CriticalPathCalculations 11.3.2 DeterminationoftheCriticalPath 11.3.3 11.4. DeterminationofFloats

ProjectManagementPERT

11.5.Summary TerminalQuestions AnswerstoSAQsandTQs

11.1. Introduction Aprojectsuchasconstructionofabridge,highway,powerplant,repairandmaintenanceofanoil refinery or an air plane design, development and marketing a new product, research and developmentetc.,maybedefinedasacollectionofinterrelatedactivities(ortasks)whichmust becompletedinaspecifiedtimeaccordingtoaspecifiedsequenceandrequireresourcessuch aspersonnel,money,materials,facilitiesetc. Thegrowingcomplexitiesoftodaysprojectshaddemandedmoresystematicandmoreeffective planning techniques with the objective of optimizing the efficiency of executing the project. Efficiencyhereimplieseffectingtheutmostreductioninthetimerequiredtocompletetheproject whileaccountingfortheeconomicfeasibilityofusingavailableresources. Projectmanagementhasevolvedasanewfieldwiththedevelopmentoftwoanalytictechniques forplanning,schedulingandcontrollingprojects.ThesearetheCriticalPathMethod(CPM)and the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). PERT and CPM are basically time orientedmethodsinthesensethattheybothleadtothedeterminationofatimeschedule.

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OperationsResearch LearningObjectives: Afterstudyingthisunit,youshouldbeabletounderstandthefollowing

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1. Whatisaproject? 2. Whatisprojectmanagement? 3. ApplicationofPERT/CPMmethodtonetworkanalysis

11.2. BasicdifferencebetweenPERTandCPM Though there are no essential differences between PERT and CPM as both of them share in common the determination of a critical path and are based on the network representation of activitiesandtheirschedulingthatdeterminesthemostcriticalactivitiestobecontrolledsoasto meetthecompletiondateoftheproject. 11.2.1

PERT

1. SincePERTwasdevelopedinconnectionwithanRandDwork,thereforeithadtocopewith theuncertaintieswhichareassociatedwithRandDactivities.InPERT,totalprojectduration isregardedasarandomvariableandthereforeassociatedprobabilitiesarecalculatedsoas tocharacteriseit. 2. Itisaneventorientednetworkbecauseintheanalysisofnetworkemphasisisgivenanimportant stages of completion of task rather than the activities required to be performed to reach to a particulareventortask. 3. PERTisnormallyusedforprojectsinvolvingactivitiesofnonrepetitivenatureinwhichtime estimatesareuncertain. 4. Ithelpsinpinpointingcriticalareasinaprojectsothatnecessaryadjustmentcanbemadeto meetthescheduledcompletiondateoftheproject.

11.2.2 CPM 1. Since CPM was developed in connection with a construction project which consisted of routinetaskswhoseresourcesrequirementanddurationwasknownwithcertainty,therefore itisbasicallydeterministic. 2. CPMissuitableforestablishingatradeoffforoptimumbalancingbetweenscheduletimeand costoftheproject. 3. CPMisusedforprojectsinvolvingactivitiesofrepetitivenature.
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11.2.3ProjectschedulingbyPERTCPM Itconsistsofthreebasicphases:planning,schedulingandcontrolling. 1. ProjectPlanning:Thevariousstepsinvolvedduringthisphasearegivenbelow: i) Identifyvariousactivities(taskorworkelements)tobeperformedintheproject. ii) Determiningrequirementofresourcessuchasmen,materials,machinesetc.,forcarrying outactivitieslistedabove. iii) Estimatingcostsandtimesforvariousactivities. iv) Specifyingtheinterrelationshipamongvariousactivities. v) Developing a network diagram showing the sequential interrelationships between the variousactivities. 2. Scheduling:Oncetheplanningphaseisover,schedulingoftheproject,iswheneachofthe activitiesrequiredtobeperformed,istakenup.Thevariousstepsinvolvedduringthisphase arelistedbelow: 1. Estimatingthedurationsofactivities,takingintoconsiderationstheresourcesrequiredfor theseexecutioninmosteconomicmanner. 2. Basedonthesetimeestimates,preparingatimechartshowingthestartandfinishtimes for each activity, and hence calculation of total project duration by applying network analysis techniques such asforward (backward) pass and floats calculationidentifying the critical path carrying out resource smoothing (or levelling) exercise for critical or scarce resources including recosting of the schedule taking into account resource constraints. 3. ProjectControl:Projectcontrol referstorevaluatingactualprogressagainsttheplan.If significantdifferencesareobservedthenreschedulingmustbedonetoupdate andrevisetheuncompletedpartoftheproject. SelfAssessmentQuestions1 VerifywhetherthefollowingstatementsareTrueorFalse

1. Projectconsistsofinterrelatedactivities. 2. Projectactivitiesaretobecompletedinaspecifiedtimeaccordingtospecifiedsequence. 3. PERTandCPMidentifiesnoncriticalactivities. 4. PERTisactivityorientednetwork.

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5. CPMisusedforprojectsthatarerepetitiveinnature.

11.3 PERT/CPMNetworkComponents And PrecedenceRelationship

PERT/CPMnetworksconsistsoftwomajorcomponentsasdiscussedbelow: a) Events: An event represents apointin time that signifies the completion of some activities and the beginning of new ones. The beginning and end points of an activity are thus described by 2 events usually known as the Tail and head events. Events are commonly represented by circles (nodes) in the network diagram. They do not consume time and Resource b) Activities:Activitiesofthenetworkrepresentprojectoperationsortasktobeconducted.An arrow is commonly used to represent an activity, with its head indicating the direction of progress in the project. Activities originating from a certain event cannot start until the activities terminating at the same event have been completed. They consume time and Resource. Eventsinthenetworkdiagramareidentifiedbynumbers.Numbersaregiventoeventssuchthat arrowheadnumbermustbegreaterthanarrowtailnumber. Activitiesareidentifiedbythenumbers oftheirstarting(tail)eventand ending(head)event.An arrow(i.J)extendedbetweentwoevents,thetaileventirepresentsthestartoftheactivityand theheadeventJrepresentsthecompletionoftheactivityasshowninFig.9.1:

Activity i J

Startingevent

CompletionEvent Fig.9.1

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Figure9.2showsanotherexample,whereactivities(1,3)and(2,3)mustbecompletedbefore activity(3,4)canstart. 1 3 2 Fig.9.2 Therulesforconstructingthearrowdiagramareasfollows: 1. Eachactivityisrepresentedbyoneandonlyonearrowinthenetwork. 2. Notwoactivitiescanbeidentifiedbythesameheadandtailevents. 3. Toensurethecorrectprecedencerelationshipinthearrowdiagram,thefollowingquestions mustbeansweredaseveryactivityisaddedtothenetwork: a) Whatactivitiesmustbecompletedimmediatelybeforetheseactivitycanstart? b) Whatactivitiesmustfollowthisactivity? c) Whatactivitymustoccurconcurrentlywiththisactivity? This rule is selfexplanatory. It actually allows for checking (and rechecking) the precedence relationshipsasoneprogressesinthedevelopmentofthenetwork. Example1:ConstructthearrowdiagramcomprisingactivitiesA,B,C..andLsuchthatthe followingrelationshipsaresatisfied: 1) A,BandCthefirstactivitiesoftheproject,canstartsimultaneously. 2) AandBprecedeD. 3) BprecedesE,FandH. 4) FandCprecedeG. 5) EandHprecedeIandJ. 6) C,D,FandJprecedeK. 7) KprecedesL. 8) I,GandLaretheterminalactivitiesoftheproject. 4

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Fig.9.3 The dummy activities D1 and D2 are used (dotted lines) to establish correct precedence relationships.D3 isusedtoidentifyactivitiesEandHwithuniqueendevents.Theeventsofthe projectarenumberedsuchthattheirascendingorderindicatesthedirectionoftheprogressinthe project. Note:Adummyactivityinaprojectnetworkanalysishaszeroduration.

11.3.1. CriticalPathCalculations
The application of PERT/CPM should ultimately yield a schedule specifying the start and completiontimeofeachactivity.Thearrowdiagramisthefirststeptowardsachievingthatgoal. The start and completion times are calculated directly on the arrow diagrams using simple arithmetic.Theendresultistoclassifytheactivitiesascriticalornoncritical.Anactivityissaid tobecriticalifadelayinthestartofthecoursemakesadelayinthecompletiontimeoftheentire project. A noncritical activity is such that the time between its earliest start and its latest completiontimeislongerthanitsactualduration.Anoncriticalactivityissaidtohaveaslackor floattime.

11.3.2. DeterminationoftheCriticalPath
Acriticalpathdefinesachainofcriticalactivitiesthatconnectsthestartandend eventsofthe arrowdiagram.Inotherwords,thecriticalpathidentifiesallthecriticalactivitiesoftheproject. The critical path calculations include two phases. The first phase is called the Forward Pass where all calculations begin from the start node and move to the end node. At each node a numberiscomputedrepresentingtheearliestoccurrencetimeofthecorrespondingevent.These
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numbersareshowninsquares.Inforwardpasswenotethenumberofheadsjoiningtheevent. We take the maximum earliest timing through these heads.The second phase called the Backwards Pass, begins calculationsfrom the end node and moves to the start node. The numbercomputedateachnodeisshowninatriangle D nearendpointwhichrepresentthelatest occurrencetimeofthecorrespondingevent.ConsidertheforwardpassInbackwardpasswesee thenumberoftailsandtakeminimumvaluethroughthesetails. LetESi betheearlieststarttimeofalltheactivitiesemanatingfromeventi,i.e.ESi represents the earliest occurrence time of event i, if i = 1 is the start event then conventionally, for the critical path calculations,ESi = 0 , Let Dij be the duration of the activity(i, j). Then theforward passcalculationsaregivenbytheformula: ES i =maxi {ESi+Dij},foralldefined(i,j)activitieswithESi=0.Thusinorder tocomputeEsJ for eventj,Esi forthetaileventsofalltheincomingactivities(i,j)mustbecomputedfirst. WiththecomputationofallESj,theforwardpasscalculationsarecompleted.Thebackwardpass startsfrom the endevent. The objectiveof this phase tocalculateLCi, thelatestcompletion timeforalltheactivitiescomingintotheeventi.Thusifi=nistheendeventLCn =ESn initiates thebackwardpass. Ingeneralforanynodei,LCi =min{LCjDij}foralldefinedactivitiesarecalculated,whichends thecalculationofbackwardpass. Thecriticalpathactivitiescannowbeidentifiedbyusingtheresultsoftheforwardandbackward passes.Anactivity(i,j)liesonthecriticalpathifitsatisfiesthefollowingconditions. A) ESI =LCi B) ESJ =LCJ C) ESJESI =LCJLCI =DiJ Theseconditionsactuallyindicatethatthereisnofloatorslacktime betweentheearlieststand andthelateststartoftheactivity.Thustheactivitymustcritical.Inthearrowdiagramtheseare characterisedbynumbersinand D arethesameateachoftheheadandtaileventsandthe differencebetweenthenumberin(or D)attheheadeventandthenumberin(or D)atthetail eventinequaltothedurationoftheActivity. Thuswewillgetacriticalpath,whichischainofconnectedactivities,whichspansthenetwork formstarttoend.

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Example 2: Consider a network which stands from node 1 and terminate at node 6, the time requiredtoperformeachactivityisindicatedonthearrows.

Fig.9.4 LetusstartwithforwardpasswithESi =0. Sincethereisonlyoneincomingactivity(1,2)toevent2withD12 =3. ES2 =ES1+DS2 =0+3=3. Letusconsidertheend3,sincethereonlyoneincomingactivity(2,3)toevent3,withD23 =3. ES3 =ES2+D23 =3+3=6. ToobtainES4,sincetherearetwoactivitiesA(3,4)and(2,4)totheevent4withD24 =2andD34 =0. ES4=maxi=2,3 {ESi +De4} =max{ES2 +D24,ES3 +D34} =max{3+2,6+0}=6 SimilaryES5 =13andES6 =19 Whichcompletedfirstphase. Inthesecondphasewehave LC6=19=ES6 LC5 =196=13 LC4=minJ=5,6 {LCJ D4J}=6 LC3 =6,LC2 =3andLC1 =0 \ activities(1,2),(2,3)(3,4)(4,5)(5,6)arecriticaland(2,4)(4,6),(3,6),arenoncritical.

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Thustheactivities(1,2)(2,3)(3,4)(4,5)and(5,6)definethecriticalpathwhichistheshortest possibletimetocompletetheproject.

11.3.3. DeterminationofFloats Following the determination of the critical path, the floats for the noncritical activities must be computed. Note that for the critical activities this float is zero. Before showing how floats are determined,itisnecessarytodefinetwonewtimesthatareassociatedwitheachactivity.There areLatestStart(LS)andtheEarliestCompletion(EC)times,whicharedefinedactivity(i,J)by LSeJ=LCJ DiJ andECeJ =ESi +DiJ Therearetwoimportanttypesoffloatsnamely,TotalFloat(TF)andFreeFloat(FF).Thetotal floatTFiJ foractivity(i,J)isthedifferencebetweenthemaximumtimeavailabletoperformthe activity(=LCJ ESi)anditsduration(=DiJ ) Thatis, TFiJ =LCJESI DiJ =LCJ ECiJ =LS iJ ESi Thefreefloatisdefinedbyassumingthatalltheactivitiesstartasearlyaspossible.Inthiscase FFiJ foractivity(i,J)istheexcessofavailabletime(=ESi ESi)overitsdeviation(=DiJ ) thatis,FFiJ =ESi ESi =DiJ . Note that onlyfor a criticalactivity must have zero totalfloat.Thefreefloat mustalso be zero when the total float is zero. The converse is not true, that is in the sense that a noncritical activitymayhavezerofreefloats. Letusconsidertheexampletakenbeforethecriticalpathcalculationstogetherwiththefloatsfor thenoncriticalactivitiescanbesummarizedintheconvenientformshowninthefollowingtable:

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Earliest Latest Activit Table Free Duration Start Completio Start Completio y Float Float n n DiJ ES LS i ij (iJ) TFiJ FFiJ ECiJ DLCJ (1,2) (2,3) (2,4) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) (4,5) (4,6) (5,6) 3 3 2 0 3 2 7 5 6 0 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 13 3 6 5 6 9 8 13 11 19 0 3 4 6 10 17 6 14 13 3 6 6 6 13 19 13 19 19 0* 0* 1 0* 4 11 0* 8 0* 0 0 1 0 4 11 0 8 0

Note:Totalfloat=ESij =LFij ESij Freefloat=TotalfloatHeadslack *Criticalactivity* Example3:AprojectconsistsofaseriesoftasksA,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,Iwiththefollowing relationships. (W <X,Y means Xand Y cannotstartsuntilWis completed, X,Y <W meansW cannotstartuntilbothXandYarecompleted).Withthisnotationconstructthenetworkdiagram havingthefollowingconstraintsA<D,EB,D<FC<G,B<HF,G<I. Findalsotheminimumtime ofcompletionoftheproject,thecriticalpath,andthetotalfloatsof eachtask,whenthetime(indays)ofcompletionofeachtaskisasfollows: Task: A Time: 23 B 8 C 20 D 16 E 24 F 18 G 19 H 4 I 10

Fig.9.5
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ES1 =0,ES 2 =20,ES3=23,ES4 =59,ES5 =39,ES6 =57,ES7 =67 Activity (iJ) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (2,5) (3,4) (3,7) (4,5) (4,6) (5,6) (5,7) (6,7) Earliest Latest Durati on Start Finish Start Finish DiJ ESe Eeij LJDiJ LJ 20 23 8 19 16 24 0 18 0 4 10 0 0 0 20 23 23 39 39 39 39 37 20 23 8 39 39 47 39 57 39 43 67 18 0 31 38 23 43 57 39 57 63 57 38 23 39 57 39 67 57 57 57 67 67 Table Float TFiJ 18 0* 31 18 0* 20 10 0* 18 24 0* Free Float FFiJ 0 0 31 0 0 20 0 0 18 24 0

Criticalpathis13467.

SelfAssessmentQuestions2 Fillintheblanks

1. Eventsdonotconsume________and_________. 2. Arrowsheadnumberis_________thanitstailnumber. 3. Dummyactivityinnetworkisintroducedtkeepproper_________relationship. 4. Criticalpathcalculationincludeboth_________and_________.

11.4 ProjectManagementPERT ProbabilityandCostConsiderationinProjectScheduling TheanalysisinCPMdoesnottakeintothecasewheretimeestimatesforthedifferentactivities areprobabilistic.Alsoitdoesnotconsiderexplicitlythecostofschedules.Herewewillconsider bothprobabilityandcostaspectsinprojectscheduling. Probability considerations are incorporated in project scheduling by assuming that the time estimateforeachactivityisbasedon3differentvalues.Theyare a= The optimistsictime, which will be requiredif the execution of the project goes extremely well. b= Thepessimistictime,whichwillberequiredifeverythinggoesbad.

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m= Themostlikelytime,whichwillberequiredifexecutionisnormal. Themostlikelyestimatemneednotcoincidewithmidpoint
a + b ofaandb.Thenthe 2 a + b and 2 m. i.e. 2

expected duration of each activity D can be obtained as the mean of

a+ b + 2m a+ b+ 4m 2 . D= = 3 6

ThisestimatecanbeusedtostudythesingleestimateDinthecriticalpathcalculation. ThevarianceofeachactivitydenotedbyVisdefinedby varianceV= b - a . 6

2

TheearliestexpectedtimesforthenodeidenotedbyE(mi)foreachnodeiisobtainedby taking the sum of expected times of all activities leading to the node i, when more than one activityleadstoanodei,thengreatestofallE(mi)ischosen.Let mi betheearliestoccurrence time ofthe eventi, we can consider mi asa randomvariable.Assuming that all activitiesofthe network are statistical independent, we can calculate the mean and the variance of the mi as follows E{mi } = ESI andVar{mi } = leadingtoi. For the latest expected time, we consider the last node. Now for each path move backwords, substitutingthe DeJ foreachactivity(ij).ThuswehaveE(LJ)=E(ma)andE(mi)=L(LJ) D iJ ifonly onepatheventsfromJtoioritistheminimumof{E[LJ) D iJ ]forallJforwhichtheactivities(i,j) isdefined. Note: The probabilitydistribution of timesfor completing an event can be approximated by the normaldistributionduetocentrallimittheorem. Since mi represents the earliest occurrence time, event will meet a certain schedule time STi (specifiedbyananalyst)withprobability
m - E ( mi) ST ( mi) i - E Pr (mi STi)=Pr i V ( mi) V ( mi)

Vk .Where Kdefinesthe activitiesalong the largestpath

k

=Pr (Z Ki)

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ST ( mi) i - E .Itiscommonpracticetocomputetheprobabilitythateventi V ( mi)

whereZ ~N(01)andKi =

willoccurnolaterthanitsLCe suchprobabilitywillthenrepresentthechancethatthesucceeding eventswilloccurwithinthe(ESe, LCe)duration. Example4:Aprojectisrepresentedbythenetworkshownbelowandhasthefollowingdata.

Task OptimisticTime PessimisticTime MostLikelyTime

A 5 10 8

B 18 22 20

C 26 40 33

D 16 20 18

E 15 25 20

F 6 12 9

G 7 12 10

H 7 9 8

I 3 5 4

Determinethefollowing: a) Expectedtasktimeandtheirvariance. b) Theearliestandlatestexpectedtimestoreacheachevent. c) Thecriticalpath.

Fig.9.6 d) Theprobabilityofaneventoccurringattheproposedcompletiondataiftheoriginalcontract timeofcompletingtheprojectis41.5weeks. e) Thedurationoftheprojectthatwillhave96%channelofbeingcompleted. Solution: a) Usingtheformulawecancalculateexpectedactivitytimesandvarianceinthefollowingtable

b- a 2 D = 1 ( a+ b+ 4 m ) V = 6 6
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b) Activity 12 13 14 25 26 36 47 57 67 a 5 18 26 16 15 6 7 7 3 B 10 22 40 20 25 12 12 9 5 m 8 20 33 18 20 9 10 8 4 78 2000 330 180 200 90 98 80 40 v 0.696 0.444 5.429 0.443 2.780 1.000 0.694 0.111 0.111

ForwardPass: E1 =0E2 =7.8E 3 =20E4 =33E5 =258E6 =29E7 =42.8 BackwardPass: L7 =42.8L6 =38.8L5 =34.8L4 =33.0L3 =29.8L2 =16.8L1 =0. TheEvaluesandLvaluesareshowninFig.

Fig.9.7 c) The critical path is shown by thick line in fig. The critical path is 147 and the earliest completiontimefortheprojectis42.8weeks. d) The last event 7 will occur only after 42.8 weeks. For this we require only the duration of criticalactivities.Thiswillhelpusincalculatingthestandarddurationofthelastevent. Expectedlengthofcriticalpath=33+9.8=42.8 Varianceofarticlepathlength=5.429+0.694=6.123
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ProbabilityofmeetingthescheduletimeisgivenbyPi (Z Ki)= Pi (Z0.52)=0.30(Fromnormaldistributiontable) Thustheprobabilitythattheprojectcanbecompletedinlessthanorequalto41.5weeksis 0.30.Inotherwordsprobablythattheprojectwillgetdelayedbeyond41.5weeksis0.70. e) GiventhatP(Z Ki)=0.95.ButZ0.9S=1.6u,fromnormaldistributiontable.Then1.6u= ST - E ( m i) i V( m i) is1 . 6u = ST - 42 . 8 i 2 . 47 or

Sji=1.642.47+42.8=46.85weeks. SelfAssessmentQuestions3 I) TrueorFalse 1) Inaprojectnetwork,asequenceofactivitiesmayformaloop. 2) Acriticalactivitymusthaveitstotalandfreefloatsequaltozero. 3) Anoncriticalactivitycannothavezerototalfloat. 4) Thecriticalpathofprojectnetworkrepresentstheminimumdurationneededtocomplete thenetwork. 5) Anetworkmayincludemorethanonecriticalpath.

11.5. Summary
Critical Path computations are quite simple, yet they provide valuable information that simplifies the schedulingof complexprojects. The result is that PERTCPM techniques enjoy tremendous popularity among practitioners in the field. The usefulness of the techniques is further enhanced by the availability of specialized computer systems for executing,analyzingandcontrollingnetworkprojects.

TerminalQuestions 1. WritedownthebasicdifferencebetweenPERTandCPM. 2. ExplainProjectManagement(PERT) 3. Aprojecthas10activities.Thefollowingtableshowstheinformationabouttheactivities. Activity A B C D Precedingactivity A A Durationinweeks 6 3 5 4

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E F G H I J a. Drawthenetwork b. Findtheprojectduration c. IdentifytheCPM d. Preparetheschedule

A C D B,D,E H I,G,F

3 3 5 5 2 3

4. Asmallprojectconsistingofeightactivitieshasthefollowingcharacteristics: TIMEESTIMATES(INWEEKS) Activity A B C D E F G H Precedingactivity None None A A A B,C D E,F,G Mostoptimistic time(a) 2 10 8 10 7 9 3 5 Mostlikelytime (m) 4 12 9 15 7.5 9 3.5 5 Mostpessimistic time(b) 12 26 10 20 11 9 7 5

a. DrawthePERTnetworkfortheproject. b. Determinethecriticalpath. c. Ifa30weekdeadlineisimposed,whatistheprobabilitythattheprojectwillbefinishedwithin thetimelimit? d. If theproject manager wants tobe 99% sure that theprojectis completedon this schedule date,howmanyweeksbeforethatdateshouldhestarttheprojectwork? AnswersToSelfAssessmentQuestions SelfAssessmentQuestions1 1.True 2.True 3.True 4.False 5.True

SelfAssessmentQuestions2 1.Time,resource 2.Greaterthan

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3.Precedence 4. Forwardpass&backwardpass SelfAssessmentQuestions 3 1)False 2)True 3)True 4)True 5)False

AnswerforTerminalQuestions 1. RefertoSection11.2 2. RefertoSection11.4 3.b)20 weeks c) ADHIJ

4.b)ADGHc)0.6591d)34.7weeks

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