Global Oil Market

by Eduardo Petazze
The following is a summary of the January 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report released by the U.S. EIA (pdf, 47 pages)
(million barrels per day)
2011
Supply
OECD .
21.620
U.S. (50 States) .
10.132
Canada .
3.596
Mexico .
2.960
North Sea .
3.349
Other OECD .
1.583
Non-OECD .
66.004
OPEC .
35.371
Crude Oil Portion .
29.824
Other Liquids .
5.547
Former Soviet Union .
13.316
China .
4.341
Other Non-OECD .
12.976
Total World Supply .
87.625
Consumption
OECD .
46.403
U.S. (50 States) .
18.882
U.S. Territories .
0.290
Canada .
2.266
Europe .
14.257
Japan .
4.473
Other OECD .
6.235
Non-OECD .
42.164
Former Soviet Union .
4.339
Europe .
0.709
China .
9.852
Other Asia .
10.748
Other Non-OECD .
16.516
Total World Consumption . 88.567
Balance (Supply less Consumption)
-0.942
.
OPEC Crude oil call .
30.766

2012

2013

2014

2015

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4 2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

22.551
11.110
3.857
2.936
3.064
1.584
66.838
36.680
30.890
5.790
13.406
4.368
12.383
89.389

23.779
12.313
4.170
2.904
2.863
1.529
66.137
35.791
29.962
5.829
13.512
4.461
12.372
89.916

25.155
13.441
4.359
2.778
3.007
1.570
66.353
35.440
29.489
5.951
13.647
4.555
12.711
91.508

26.191
14.272
4.660
2.695
2.993
1.571
66.949
35.592
29.512
6.081
13.799
4.596
12.962
93.140

23.991
12.614
4.215
2.884
2.735
1.544
66.661
36.065
30.232
5.832
13.507
4.370
12.719
90.652

24.726
12.878
4.482
2.907
2.889
1.570
65.524
34.982
29.197
5.786
13.565
4.527
12.450
90.249

24.842
13.072
4.320
2.818
3.069
1.563
65.315
35.075
29.174
5.901
13.558
4.526
12.155
90.157

24.997
13.333
4.265
2.792
3.042
1.565
66.241
35.342
29.393
5.950
13.594
4.561
12.744
91.238

25.227
13.524
4.341
2.764
3.008
1.589
66.913
35.591
29.627
5.965
13.688
4.565
13.069
92.140

25.553
13.834
4.509
2.737
2.910
1.564
66.944
35.751
29.763
5.988
13.746
4.569
12.878
92.497

25.832
13.985
4.579
2.683
3.027
1.559
65.999
35.198
29.168
6.029
13.741
4.568
12.493
91.831

25.995
14.211
4.547
2.684
2.987
1.566
66.887
35.454
29.391
6.063
13.770
4.601
13.062
92.882

26.249
14.343
4.660
2.716
2.939
1.591
67.474
35.732
29.634
6.098
13.846
4.605
13.290
93.723

26.687
14.550
4.855
2.697
3.017
1.567
67.438
35.986
29.853
6.132
13.839
4.610
13.003
94.125

45.902
18.490
0.305
2.286
13.719
4.716
6.386
43.255
4.503
0.710
10.275
10.982
16.785
89.158
0.231
30.659

46.051
18.872
0.322
2.308
13.579
4.568
6.402
44.331
4.636
0.714
10.658
11.059
17.265
90.383
-0.467
30.429

45.981
18.878
0.342
2.325
13.479
4.453
6.504
45.609
4.787
0.721
11.053
11.247
17.800
91.590
-0.082
29.571

45.971
18.964
0.363
2.345
13.432
4.283
6.585
46.994
4.926
0.730
11.487
11.439
18.412
92.965
0.175
29.336

46.357
19.084
0.322
2.282
13.965
4.352
6.352
44.807
4.757
0.726
10.564
10.827
17.933
91.164
-0.512
30.744

46.593
19.201
0.322
2.358
13.409
4.738
6.565
44.669
4.738
0.725
10.919
11.121
17.166
91.262
-1.012
30.209

46.470
18.786
0.342
2.322
13.483
4.925
6.613
44.417
4.704
0.706
10.647
11.227
17.134
90.887
-0.730
29.904

45.125
18.759
0.342
2.259
13.195
4.143
6.427
45.963
4.639
0.713
11.235
11.445
17.931
91.088
0.149
29.243

45.910
19.014
0.342
2.369
13.640
4.174
6.372
46.298
4.912
0.734
11.189
11.006
18.456
92.209
-0.068
29.695

46.418
18.953
0.342
2.350
13.599
4.570
6.605
45.758
4.893
0.733
11.142
11.308
17.682
92.176
0.321
29.442

46.423
18.859
0.363
2.342
13.428
4.737
6.694
45.761
4.841
0.714
11.065
11.425
17.717
92.184
-0.353
29.521

45.118
18.833
0.363
2.279
13.152
3.985
6.507
47.358
4.773
0.722
11.675
11.642
18.545
92.476
0.406
28.985

45.939
19.123
0.363
2.389
13.597
4.015
6.451
47.711
5.054
0.743
11.628
11.190
19.095
93.649
0.074
29.561

46.406
19.040
0.363
2.371
13.550
4.395
6.687
47.145
5.035
0.742
11.579
11.499
18.290
93.551
0.574
29.279

EIA December 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook

(million barrels per day)
2011
Supply
OECD .
21.620
U.S. (50 States) .
10.132
Canada .
3.596
Mexico .
2.960
North Sea .
3.349
Other OECD .
1.583
Non-OECD .
65.924
OPEC .
35.331
Crude Oil Portion .
29.824
Other Liquids .
5.507
Former Soviet Union .
13.316
China .
4.341
Other Non-OECD .
12.935
Total World Supply .
87.544
Consumption
OECD .
46.405
U.S. (50 States) .
18.882
U.S. Territories .
0.290
Canada .
2.266
Europe .
14.257
Japan .
4.473
Other OECD .
6.237
Non-OECD .
42.164
Former Soviet Union .
4.339
Europe .
0.709
China .
9.852
Other Asia .
10.748
Other Non-OECD .
16.516
Total World Consumption . 88.569
Balance (Supply less Consumption)
-1.025.
OPEC Crude oil call .
30.848

2012

2013

2014

2013Q1

2013Q2 2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1 2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

22.551
11.110
3.857
2.936
3.064
1.584
66.756
36.640
30.890
5.750
13.406
4.368
12.342
89.307

23.792
12.295
4.197
2.905
2.870
1.525
66.235
35.872
30.044
5.828
13.522
4.461
12.381
90.028

25.227
13.422
4.378
2.866
3.021
1.541
65.996
35.295
29.182
6.113
13.422
4.558
12.720
91.223

23.161
11.703
4.114
2.931
2.937
1.476
65.654
35.752
29.953
5.799
13.522
4.454
11.926
88.815

23.226
12.057
3.869
2.895
2.878
1.526
66.680
36.287
30.467
5.820
13.456
4.492
12.444
89.905

24.060
12.614
4.231
2.885
2.774
1.557
66.655
36.032
30.226
5.806
13.514
4.369
12.740
90.715

24.722
12.808
4.573
2.910
2.891
1.540
65.953
35.419
29.530
5.888
13.595
4.527
12.412
90.675

24.926
13.049
4.333
2.897
3.112
1.535
65.756
35.602
29.570
6.032
13.410
4.531
12.212
90.682

25.078
13.328
4.288
2.883
3.045
1.535
66.222
35.513
29.428
6.085
13.374
4.563
12.772
91.300

25.291
13.507
4.357
2.856
3.012
1.560
66.387
35.254
29.113
6.140
13.432
4.567
13.134
91.679

25.613
13.802
4.533
2.828
2.914
1.535
65.618
34.810
28.616
6.195
13.474
4.571
12.762
91.231

45.914
18.490
0.305
2.286
13.715
4.716
6.402
43.255
4.503
0.710
10.275
10.982
16.785
89.170
0.138
30.753

45.951
18.797
0.322
2.313
13.546
4.561
6.412
44.331
4.636
0.714
10.658
11.059
17.265
90.282
-0.255
30.299

45.825
18.772
0.342
2.325
13.429
4.453
6.504
45.609
4.787
0.721
11.053
11.247
17.800
91.434
-0.211
29.393

45.780
18.594
0.322
2.284
13.157
5.075
6.348
43.463
4.554
0.698
10.542
11.035
16.634
89.243
-0.428
30.381

45.451
18.609
0.322
2.302
13.773
4.100
6.345
44.386
4.492
0.705
10.608
11.253
17.328
89.837
0.068
30.399

46.281
19.084
0.322
2.308
13.844
4.334
6.389
44.807
4.757
0.726
10.564
10.827
17.933
91.088
-0.373
30.599

46.292
18.899
0.322
2.358
13.409
4.738
6.565
44.669
4.738
0.725
10.919
11.121
17.166
90.960
-0.285
29.816

46.327
18.695
0.342
2.322
13.431
4.925
6.613
44.417
4.704
0.706
10.647
11.227
17.134
90.744
-0.062
29.632

44.989
18.672
0.342
2.259
13.145
4.143
6.427
45.963
4.639
0.713
11.235
11.445
17.931
90.952
0.348
29.079

45.753
18.905
0.342
2.369
13.591
4.174
6.372
46.298
4.912
0.734
11.189
11.006
18.456
92.051
-0.372
29.486

46.231
18.815
0.342
2.350
13.550
4.570
6.605
45.758
4.893
0.733
11.142
11.308
17.682
91.989
-0.758
29.374

Also see:
IEA Last Oil Market Report pdf, 72 pages
Iran's oil exports not expected to increase significantly despite recent negotiations

OPEC December 2013 Oil Market Report

Link: pdf, 80 pages - Flipbook
Summary:
Oil Demand (mb/d)
Americas
Europe
Asia Pacific
Total OECD
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Total DCs
FSU
Other Europe
China
Total Other regions
Total world demand (1)
Previous estimate
Revision

2012
23.63
13.74
8.59
45.96
10.86
6.27
7.59
3.44
28.16
4.41
0.64
9.74
14.80
88.92
88.92
0.00

Oil Supply (mb/d)

2012

Americas
Europe
Asia Pacific
Total OECD
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Total DCs
FSU
Other Europe
China
Total Other regions
Total Non-OPEC production
Processing gains
Total Non-OPEC supply (2)
Previous estimate
Revision
OPEC NGLs + non-conventional (3)
Difference (4) = (1)-(2)-(3)
OPEC crude oil production
2011
mb/d
1.24 Algeria
1.67 Angola
0.49 Ecuador
3.63 Iran
2.67 Iraq
2.54 Kuwait
0.46 Libya
2.11 Nigeria
0.79 Qatar
9.30 Saudi Arabia
2.52 UAE
2.38 Venezuela
29.79
Total OPEC (5)
Stocks chg. (6)= (5)-(4)
Own estimate

16.75
3.77
0.56
21.08
3.64
4.67
1.50
2.30
12.12
13.30
0.14
4.16
17.60
50.80
2.12
52.92
52.92
0.00
5.57
30.43
2012
1.21
1.74
0.50
2.97
2.98
2.79
1.39
2.07
0.75
9.74
2.62
2.36
31.13
0.70

Q1
23.71
13.18
8.92
45.81
10.91
6.21
7.79
3.42
28.33
4.33
0.63
9.79
14.75
88.89
88.89
0.00
Q1
17.64
3.63
0.45
21.71
3.65
4.71
1.48
2.30
12.14
13.45
0.14
4.24
17.82
51.67
2.15
53.82
53.84
-0.02
5.76
29.31
Q1
1.17
1.75
0.50
2.71
3.03
2.79
1.40
1.99
0.74
9.11
2.69
2.35
30.22
0.91

2013
Q2
Q3
23.74 23.85
13.71 13.78
7.89 8.14
45.33 45.76
11.08 11.11
6.47 6.74
7.76 8.19
3.45 3.38
28.76 29.42
4.18 4.58
0.59 0.63
10.19 9.91
14.95 15.12
89.04 90.29
89.03 90.27
0.01 0.02
2013
Q2
Q3
17.62 18.35
3.57 3.47
0.49 0.51
21.68 22.33
3.57 3.48
4.73 4.78
1.35 1.36
2.42 2.45
12.07 12.06
13.39 13.42
0.14 0.14
4.27 4.15
17.80 17.70
51.55 52.09
2.15 2.15
53.70 54.25
53.70 54.21
0.00 0.04
5.78 5.81
29.56 30.23
2013
Q2
Q3
1.17 1.15
1.75 1.71
0.51 0.52
2.68 2.68
3.10 2.99
2.84 2.84
1.34 0.65
1.89 1.92
0.73 0.73
9.48 10.03
2.73 2.77
2.35 2.35
30.57 30.34
1.01 0.11

Q4
23.85
13.42
8.66
45.93
11.16
6.59
7.75
3.54
29.04
4.83
0.71
10.41
15.95
90.92
90.89
0.03
Q4
18.40
3.57
0.51
22.48
3.49
4.75
1.34
2.49
12.08
13.53
0.14
4.29
17.96
52.52
2.15
54.67
54.63
0.04
5.85
30.40

2013
23.79
13.52
8.40
45.71
11.07
6.50
7.87
3.45
28.89
4.48
0.64
10.07
15.19
89.79
89.78
0.01
2013
18.00
3.56
0.49
22.05
3.55
4.74
1.38
2.41
12.09
13.45
0.14
4.24
17.82
51.96
2.15
54.11
54.10
0.01
5.80
29.88

2013
Q4
1.14 1.16
1.73 1.74
0.52 0.51
2.70 2.69
3.02 3.04
2.80 2.82
0.50 0.97
1.87 1.92
0.73 0.73
9.71 9.58
2.75 2.74
2.36 2.35
29.84 30.24
-0.56 0.36

Chg
13/12
0.16
-0.22
-0.19
-0.25
0.21
0.23
0.28
0.01
0.73
0.07
0.00
0.33
0.39
0.87
0.86
0.01
Chg
13/12
1.25
-0.21
-0.07
0.97
-0.09
0.07
-0.12
0.11
-0.03
0.15
0.00
0.08
0.22
1.16
0.03
1.19
1.18
0.01
0.23
-0.55
Chg
13/12
-0.05
-0.00
0.01
-0.28
0.06
0.02
-0.42
-0.16
-0.02
-0.16
0.11
-0.01
-0.89

2013
23.79
13.52
8.40
45.71
11.07
6.50
7.87
3.45
28.89
4.48
0.64
10.07
15.19
89.79
89.78
0.01
2013
18.00
3.56
0.49
22.05
3.55
4.74
1.38
2.41
12.09
13.45
0.14
4.24
17.82
51.96
2.15
54.11
54.10
0.01
5.80
29.88
2013
1.16
1.74
0.51
2.69
3.04
2.82
0.97
1.92
0.73
9.58
2.74
2.35
30.24
0.36

Q1
23.83
13.01
8.79
45.63
11.16
6.44
8.11
3.46
29.16
4.41
0.64
10.10
15.15
89.94
89.92
0.02
Q1
18.46
3.52
0.51
22.49
3.57
4.81
1.37
2.50
12.26
13.57
0.14
4.27
17.98
52.72
2.18
54.90
54.88
0.02
5.89
29.15
Q1
1.12
1.75
0.53
2.73
3.18
2.76
0.70
1.77
0.73
9.23
2.71
2.37
29.57
0.42

2014
Q2
Q3
23.82 23.96
13.43 13.65
7.82 8.00
45.07 45.62
11.28 11.37
6.70 6.99
8.05 8.53
3.48 3.41
29.52 30.29
4.25 4.66
0.58 0.64
10.54 10.27
15.37 15.57
89.96 91.47
89.95 91.45
0.01 0.02
2014
Q2
Q3
18.54 18.86
3.35 3.24
0.53 0.53
22.42 22.63
3.59 3.60
4.85 4.92
1.38 1.38
2.51 2.51
12.33 12.40
13.49 13.60
0.14 0.14
4.25 4.27
17.88 18.01
52.63 53.04
2.18 2.18
54.81 55.22
54.79 55.20
0.02 0.02
5.93 5.97
29.22 30.28
2014
Q2
Q3
1.12 1.12
1.75 1.75
0.52 0.52
2.73 2.73
3.18 3.18
2.76 2.76
0.90 1.10
1.77 1.77
0.73 0.73
9.09 9.28
2.71 2.71
2.37 2.37
29.62 30.01
0.40 -0.27

Q4
23.95
13.31
8.48
45.74
11.42
6.83
8.03
3.57
29.85
4.92
0.72
10.72
16.35
91.94
91.91
0.03
Q4
19.32
3.48
0.51
23.32
3.58
5.04
1.39
2.51
12.52
13.85
0.14
4.32
18.31
54.15
2.18
56.32
56.30
0.02
6.01
29.61

2014
23.89
13.35
8.27
45.51
11.31
6.74
8.18
3.48
29.71
4.56
0.64
10.41
15.61
90.84
90.82
0.02
2014
18.80
3.40
0.52
22.72
3.59
4.91
1.38
2.51
12.38
13.63
0.14
4.28
18.05
53.14
2.18
55.32
55.30
0.02
5.95
29.57

2014
Q4
1.12 1.12
1.75 1.75
0.52 0.52
2.73 2.73
3.18 3.18
2.76 2.76
1.30 1.00
1.77 1.77
0.73 0.73
9.08 9.17
2.71 2.71
2.37 2.37
30.02 29.81
0.41 -0.24

Chg
13/12
0.10
-0.17
-0.13
-0.20
0.24
0.24
0.31
0.03
0.82
0.08
0.00
0.34
0.42
1.05
1.04
0.01
Chg
14/13
0.80
-0.16
0.03
0.67
0.04
0.17
0.00
0.10
0.29
0.18
0.00
0.04
0.23
1.18
0.03
1.21
1.20
0.01
0.15
-0.31
Chg
14/13
-0.04
0.02
0.01
0.04
0.14
-0.06
0.03
-0.15
-0.00
-0.41
-0.03
0.01
-0.43

2015Q4