Forget Polar Bears Warming Will Hit the Tropics First

Amber-eyed jaguars could soon boot out polar bears as king of adorable, furry species nearing extinction because of global warming. In the next 10 years, the tropics will suffer "unprecedented"climate change effects, long before the Arctic and its polar bears see big shifts, according to an analysis of global warming trends published today (Oct. 9) in the journal Nature. But the study goes far beyond simply highlighting the plight of tropical plants and animals. For the first time, researchers have pinpointed individual tipping points, the years when each of the world's capitals will see climate extremesbecome the norm. New York City is fated to flip over to hotter temperatures in 2047, give or take five years, if carbon dioxide emissions continue at current levels, researchers say. "The coldest year in the future will be hotter than the hottest year in the past [150 years]," said Camilo Mora, lead study author and a geographer at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. The planet's climate forecast also includes ocean acidity, new rainfall patterns and sea level rise. [Climate Change Forecast: City Tipping Point Dates] "We hope that this analysis will bring home the message that climate change is on the way," said Abby Frazier, a study co-author and graduate student in climatology, also at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. The warming predictions come from a meta-analysis by Mora and his co-authors all University of Hawaii students of 39 climate models independently developed by climate scientists from 12 countries. A meta-analysis is a statistical approach, commonly used in medicine, that gathers existing research and examines trends in the data. Sometimes, surprising results emerge, such as the finding that a couple of daily drinks can help keep your heart healthy. The University of Hawaii team looked beyond surface temperatures, considering how animals, plants and humans would respond to new climate patterns such as increasing ocean acidity, sea level rise and shifting rainfall. The researchers offer two predictions: one with no reductions in carbon emissions by 2100, and one with a moderate rollback in global carbon dioxide output