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November 20th, 2013 From: Jim Williams, Public Policy Polling To: Interested Parties Re: 10 Polls: Voters in key swing

districts and states overwhelmingly support increasing Social Security benefits; will punish Democrats and Republicans who vote to cut benefits Sens. Murray (WA), Pryor (AR), Hagan (NC), Landrieu (LA), and McConnell (KY), and Reps. Tierney (MA-06), Barber (AZ-02), Bishop (NY-01), Peters (CA-52), Capps (CA24) all risk losing significant support if they vote to cut Social Security benefits. A new round of polls seeks to measure public sentiment about Social Security as the latest round of budget negotiations continue into their 4th week. Public Policy Polling has just completed surveys in 5 House districts and 5 states gauging public support for cutting or increasing Social Security benefits, public knowledge of various proposals before Congress, and public trust in each party’s policies regarding Social Security. In all but one of the districts and states polled, the sitting representative or senator is a member of the current bicameral budget committee, and in all but one of the targeted areas, the sitting politician faces a close re-election race in 2014. The surveys were commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action. Our results confirm that on Social Security, many congressional proposals and much media punditry have been far from aligned with the voting public. Though altering the cost-of living adjustment formula to decrease benefits in Social Security continues to be suggested as a potential outcome of ongoing budget negotiations, in all but one of our surveys, more than 2/3 of respondents oppose reducing benefits. The outlier was in Scott Peters’ CA-52, where 66% oppose benefit reductions, and, on average, 65% of respondents support increasing Social Security benefits. As far as measuring knowledge of the political landscape, in 7 of 10 surveys, the majority of respondents did not know that both Republicans and President Obama had proposed reductions to Social Security benefits. And on average, 73.7% of respondents reported no prior knowledge of pending legislation in both chambers in that would increase benefits. These results indicate that if Democrats align themselves with expanding Social Security benefits in this round of negotiations, they can be seen at the forefront of an issue that has significant public support. They also indicate that voters will punish Democrats and Republicans who vote to cut benefits - with 69.6% on average saying they'd be less likely to vote for a member of Congress who votes to cut benefits.

Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Following up on recent polling from Lake Research showing that Mitch McConnell is in a dead heat with Alison Lundergan Grimes in the Senate race in Kentucky, we surveyed residents to measure their perspective on Social Security. Even in what’s considered a solidly Republican state, 76% of respondents are opposed to reducing benefits, and 69% support increasing them. 74% report being less likely to vote for their senator if he votes to reduce Social Security benefits. That data point reveals a serious vulnerability for Mitch McConnell, who is publicly supportive of the so-called chained CPI, benefitreducing change in the cost of living adjustment. McConnell faces difficulty with every age group, especially among those older than 65, of whom 82% report being less likely to vote for him if he votes to reduce benefits. The districts surveyed were: AZ-2, CA-24, CA-52, MA-6, NY-1 The states surveyed were: AR, KY, LA, NC, WA These 10 snap polls of registered voters were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, Nov. 8-10, with sample sizes ranging from 600-1,000 voters. Full results from each of the surveys follow: http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/arkansasresults.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/az2results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/ca24results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/ca52results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/kentuckyresults.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/louisianaresults.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/ma6results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/northcarolinaresults.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/ny1results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/socialsecuritypolling/washingtonresults.pdf

Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com