Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Impact of Internet Media in Risk Debates The Controversies
Impact of Internet Media in Risk Debates The Controversies
Autumn 2001 53
Cassini, I am presently beginning to plutonium as the dust circulated through senators and representatives signed a
examine their use in natural hazards the planets atmosphere (e.g., Chong 1997; public petition against the mission, and
controversies, too, initially a battle over Grossman 1996; Hoffman 1997a; Kaku California Senator Barbara Boxer com-
landslides in Anaheim Hills, California, a 1997). missioned a study entitled, Space explo-
suburb of Los Angeles. NASA had had an environmental im- ration power sources for deep space
In this paper, I will focus on the Cassini pact analysis performed for it by a variety problems from the U.S. Government
controversy and introduce the Anaheim of internal and external agencies and Accounting Office (GAO 1998). State and
Hills one. For each, Ill present a brief researchers. These had reported extre- local government representatives also
background on the risk assessment and mely small probabilities for excess cancer received pressure to declare their juris-
risk management policy issues brought up deaths from plutonium releases during dictions in opposition to the launch or
in the debate and then analyse the uses of launch or swingby. In the 1995 Final flyby. Several responded, including the
the Internet in the controversies. For the Environmental Impact Statement, for any Massachusetts House of Representatives,
Cassini case, Ill concentrate on UseNet and, of the launch phases, all estimates for which passed a resolution to abort the
for Anaheim Hills, the web. Ill then wrap expectation and maximum scenarios launch, as did the Newton, Massachusetts,
up with the dilemma facing politicians were below one health effect, i.e., surplus City Council (Hoffman 1997) and the Santa
with risk management responsibilities death (NASA 1995, p. 4.56, 4.62). For an Cruz, California, City Council (City of
when Internet activism generates large- inadvertant entry during the Earth Santa Cruz 1997). The movement may not
scale constituent queries and protests. Is swingby, depending on the angle of re- have achieved its original goals, but it did
there some way those of us in the hazards entry, the estimate ranged from 1910 to succeed in making RTG and RHU use
community can apply the lessons of 3480 excess deaths (calculated without any controversial, which may affect the design,
Cassini and Anaheim to create pressure de minimis assumption of an allegedly authorisation, and funding of future
for disaster-resilient communities? harmless dose of 0.001 rem) developing missions.
over five decades, a level that would not
Cassini
be statistically observable amongst the 1 UseNet Activism over Cassini
The first case study is the Cassini-
billion or so deaths normally expected in I became interested in how the Internet
Huygens mission. Launched in October
that time frame (NASA 1995, p. 4.63). These was being used to build both opposition
of 1997, the Cassini orbiter will spend four
estimates were revised downward in the to Cassini and support for Cassini. Besides
years on tour in the Saturn system
Final Supplemental EIS of 1997 after a number of print media and television
beginning in 2004 and drop the European
application of new probabilistic safety pieces on the controversy, most of the
Huygens probe onto its largest moon,
analyses and more detailed accident day-to-day activism took place on email
Titan. This is physically the largest and
descriptions and environments. For and listservers, the web, and on UseNet. I
scientifically the most ambitious mission
launch accidents, expected surplus deaths was interested in the immediacy of
ever undertaken by the National Aero-
again remained below 1, and worst case communication amongst individuals
nautics and Space Administration (NASA)
scenarios resulted in less than 1 percent enabled by the Internet, so I was more
or its European partners, the European
probabilities of from 0.55 to 1.50 surplus interested in email and UseNet. UseNet
Space Agency (ESA) and the Agenzia
deaths being exceeded, depending on the became my focus, because all UseNet
Spatiale Italiana (ASI) (Spilker 1997).
time of failure (NASA 1997, p. 2.22). For discussions have been archived in a
Background to the Cassini controversy inadvertant entry failures, there was a searchable site by Déja.com since the
The controversy around the mission substantial drop in expected excess beginning of the controversy, back in
erupted as a result of NASAs decision to deaths, to 120, with a 1 percent probability 1995.
utilise radioisotope thermoelectric of 450 surplus deaths being exceeded Hypotheses: I went through these pos-
generators (RTGs) and thermal units (NASA 1997, p. 2.22-2.23). tings to evaluate several hypotheses that
(RHUs) to generate electrical power for Anti-Cassini activists were skeptical of follow from hazards literature in general
the instruments and to keep them at any risk assessment performed for NASA and technological risk literature in
operating temperatures in the deep cold and came up with their own figures, particular. Based on this literature, I
(< 10° K) 1.4 billion kilometers from the ranging from over 200,000 (Kaku 1997) expected UseNet comments to focus on
sun (NASA 1995, 1997). RTGs and RHUs through 1 million (attributed to John perceived control over hazard exposure,
contain ceramicised plutonium-238 Gofman by Grossman 1997) to as many because people often will tolerate high
dioxide. as 40,000,000 (attributed to Ernest J. levels of risk if they are the ones making
Besides the launch of ceramicised Sternglass by Grossman 1997). The the choice but will become very upset over
plutonium, another related point of opponents further claimed that NASA was even vanishingly small risks if they feel
controversy was the trajectory getting imposing an unnecessary risk, because the exposure is imposed on them (Fis-
Cassini from Earth to Saturn. The space- they argued that solar power would have choff 1994; Shrader-Frechette 1990). I also
craft is so immense that no launch vehicle been an option, even out at Saturn, where expected discussion of fairness and equity
could impart the velocity required for a incoming solar radiation is 1 percent that in the allocation of the missions costs and
direct shot to Saturn. So, over its seven at Earth (Turner 1997). benefits, as this has emerged as a theme
year cruise to Saturn, the spacecraft picks By 1995, a movement began to abort affecting peoples acceptance of risk
up speed through gravitational slingshots the October 1997 launch of Cassini. The (Margolis 1996). A central expectation
by various planets, one of which was Earth launch went forward, so the movement was that dread would dominate the
(NASA 1995, 1997). Many people became then focused on aborting the flyby. The discussion because of the nuclear issues
concerned that the RTGs and RHUs could movement was unsuccessful in stopping involved (Covello 1991; Slovic 1991).
possibly explode or pulverise in the event either of these events, but it did generate Another expected theme was mistrust of
of a flyby accident and give huge numbers an enormous amount of controversy and public institutions in protecting the public
of people a carcinogenic dose of a lot of pressure on Congress. Several (Douglas and Wildavsky 1982; Margolis
Autumn 2001 55
literature, there was no concern expressed
Neutral Issues # % over the issue of control over the
plutonium exposure, not even amongst
Technical questions/answers 72 40.4 the opponents. Fairness questions are
Asking/providing basic information 20 11.2 often raised as an explanation for public
Passing on others messages 14 7.9 activism over technological risk, but only
Nostradamus fan asking basic question 13 7.3 2 percent of authors raised the issue of
Risk question 12 6.7 fairness and that in a manner tangential
Flames 7 3.9 to the risk of plutonium exposure (most
Costs, taxes 6 3.4 of these complained about how NASAs
Politics/bureaucratisation 5 2.8 monopoly over the space enterprise was
Privatisation of space 4 2.2 unfair to the private sector). There was
Vulnerabilty of big mission 2 1.1 also a gender gap, which has occasionally
Other 23 12.9 emerged in other hazards perception
sum 178 100.0 studies (Blanchard-Boehm 1997; Mulilis
1999). The gap is statistically significant
Opponent issues # % with a Chi-square prob-value of 0.005 but
extremely weak with a Cramérs V of 0.117.
Passing on others msgs 46 23.7
Perfectly in accordance with prior
Risk 46 23.7
literature, however, dread is the central
Nostradamus/astrology/666 fears 41 21.1
axis in this hazards debate. Two thirds of
Calls to action 11 5.7
opponents expressed dread of nuclear
Costs, scale, opportunity costs 9 4.6
contamination, and the Nostradamus
Censorship by media 7 3.6
discussants were terrified that Cassini
Conspiracy/militarisation of space 6 3.1
would bring about the predicted end of
Flames 4 2.1
the world. Over a quarter of the propo-
Privatisation of space better than NASA 3 1.5
nents addressed the dread factor, too,
Other 21 10.8
mainly by trivialising the probability of
sum 194 100.0
an accident and the consequences of an
Proponent issues # % accident should one occur.
Another factor mentioned in hazards
Opponents a small # unqualified Luddites 95 16.8 literature is mistrust of public institutions,
Risk overstated, disproproportionate 91 16.1 and it shows up in this debate. Six
Enthusiasm for the mission and space 73 12.9 opponents say that there is a NASA
Flames 59 10.4 conspiracy to militarise space and the
Orbit/trajectory aimed to be safe 36 6.4 plutonium on Cassini is the camels nose
Passing on otherss messages 36 6.4 in the tent, and another 7 stated that the
Past nuke/RTG failures didnt kill life on Earth 27 4.8 media were censoring the plutonium risks
Solar not feasible 22 3.9 of Cassini. Both of these arguments are
Big missions=big results 20 3.5 often cited in the 46 messages forwarded
Nostradamus critiques 23 4.1 by opponents. Even a few proponents (9)
Cass budget doesnt allow for cruise science 16 2.8 said they thought the media were biased
Opportunity costs of opponent activism 11 1.9 towards the opponents and were not
Media censorship/bias against science 9 1.6 letting NASA have a chance to defend the
Calls to action 8 1.4 mission and its goals. So, mistrust of
Privatisation critique for large-scale missions 4 0.7 national government and of media is
Other 35 6.2 common in this debate and, in the case of
sum 565 100.0 the media, is shared by both sides.
This sample may not be a representative
937 = n (authors) sample of all those on the Internet with
an opinion on Cassini: It is more than
Table 3: Central concerns raised by stance likely that people who bestir themselves
to contribute to the debate are in some
predicted would come from the skies comment. Sixteen percent opined that the way self-interested in its outcome. These
and destroy Earth in summer of 1999 risk of the mission or of RTGs was being may be employees of NASA, the ESA, the
(the Earth flyby took place in August grossly overstated. Thirteen percent ASI, or employees of their subcontractors
1999). simply enthused about the mission and or, conversely, committed and activism-
Proponents, given their much larger its goals. Another 10 percent engaged in prone members of opposition organi-
numbers, discussed a wider range of rather nasty flaming of the opponents. sations.
issues and concerns, with no one issue Only 6 percent forwarded on other To examine self-selection bias, I re-
commanding as many as a fifth of the peoples or organisations messages, moved all people with emails originating
authors. The most common statement (17 usually something from a NASA publicity from the space agencies, companies doing
percent) was that the opposition was very office. contract work for them, and academic
small if very vocal and unqualified to Contrary to the expectations of hazards institutions with sizable grants with them,
Autumn 2001 57
ineffective or inappropriate disaster families were evacuated and more than the history of Anaheim Hills and its
mitigation or response activities (Fischer 200 affected by other symptoms of ground landslides, copies of the legal actions and
1999, p. 63). While one would hope they slippage, so eventually about 250 house- depositions, myriad photographs of the
rely on risk assessment science in framing holds sued the City of Anaheim (Spencer damages, videos of politicians and lawyers
their responses, they must navigate a sea 1993). The legal firm they engaged had making contradictory statements, and two
of political risk and uncertainty, with its won a similar suit elsewhere in Southern dozen letters Steiner has received from
own Type I and Type II statistical hazards California, and the residents expected to other victims of the disaster, documenting
to their own careers! Do they assume the be made whole for the loss of their homes their suffering and their support for his
volume of pressure they receive represents or the costs of structural repairs and efforts, as well as queries from people
the feelings of their constituents and then mitigations. The situation exposed a wanting to know if they should buy a
help enact risk management policy that loophole in real-estate disclosure laws in particular home in the area. Much
would gall the bulk of their consituents California, which allowed sellers and attention is devoted to caveat emptor.
(Scylla)? or do they assume the pressure is realtors to disclose as mitigated areas of Steiners Purpose: Steiner has said that
not representative and blithely neglect an significant landslide hazard, even when his site helps level the public-opinion
issue that proves to be important to voting the efficacy of the mitigation imple- playing field between the neighbors and
constituents (Charibdis)? mented is contested. the city, with its team of top attorneys. I
The mitigation chosen by the City here think in future, political action will be a
Anaheim Hills landslide
entailed dewatering wells, which did not basic part of the Internet (quoted in
The second case study, one I am just
work here. Rather than pay the claims and Pepper 1998). The City has tried to close
beginning to analyse, involves the use of
perform structural mitigations, the City down the web site, saying that the site is
the web by one deeply angry victim of a
instead spent nearly 9 million dollars in full of misinformation (Pepper 1998). The
landslide in the Anaheim Hills area of
legal fees (Schrader 1998), claiming that site is obviously one-sided, but it also
Orange County, one of the suburbs to the
the residents helped create the slide by brings together a tremendous amount of
southeast of Los Angeles proper. This
overwatering their lawns and because of landslide and earthquake hazard infor-
individual took to the Internet after the
leaky backyard swimming pools (Pepper mation and maps, about which it would
slump occurred, so the character of his
1998). The legal firm representing the normally never occur to a home-buyer to
activism is ex-post facto, unlike the anti-
homeowners worked out a settlement ask. As such, it is extremely informative,
Cassini activists work. Rather than a single
yielding approximately US$32,000-36,000 the more so since its controversial
focus on stopping a specific event
per household and forcing them into a character makes the site popular and
perceived as hazardous, this site has
Geological Hazard Abatement District entertaining. It casts light on a loophole
several foci. The author, Gerald M. Steiner,
(GHAD) to self-fund the maintenance of in the disclosure process that contributed
wishes to expose the prior knowledge of
150 pumps and wells (Clark and McLarty to a faulty hazard perception on the part
landslide hazard on the part of elected
1999). of residents and potential residents. It also
city government officials and, therefore,
On the basis of extrapolation from yields an informative if jaundiced per-
their culpability in what he characterises
another GHAD in a geologically similar spective on the dialogue between geo-
as failure to disclose. He seeks to educate
landslide situation (the Big Rock slide logical risk assessment and the very
others on the nature of landslide hazards
area in Malibu, Los Angeles County), the political process of risk management
in the region and provide them with one-
Anaheim Hills GHAD is estimated to decision-making in local governmental
stop access to United States Geological
require US$5,000 per year per household bodies, a process that exposed a lot of
Survey (USGS), Federal Emergency
after the Citys initial donation of US$3.5 people unawares to a potentially lethal and
Management Agency (FEMA), and Cali-
million runs out in a few years (Steiner financially devastating hazard.
fornia Division of Mines and Geology
2000). Gerald M. Steiner and Sandra J. Discussion: As with the UseNet discus-
information and maps they can peruse
Steiner, affected homeowners, sued their sions of Cassini, this one-person web
before making purchase offers on homes
attorneys for failure of fiduciary respon- campaign stirs up a good deal of anti-
in Orange County. Another purpose is to
sibility (Steiner and Steiner v. Pillsbury government sentiment and draws on
provide a forum for other victims of the
Madison & Sutro, LLP 1999). In this popular suspicion of government and risk
slides to share their stories and to stay
morass of conflicting claims and accu- management planners, this time at the
abreast of current developments in their
sations and lawsuits, Gerald Steiner built local level. It, too, draws on dread, in this
legal actions against the City of Anaheim.
an absolutely amazing website: http:// case the horror of waking up in the middle
Background to the Anaheim Hills anaheim-landslide.com of the night hearing your home creaking
controversy and having the local police forcibly evict
This case involves the slump of a 25-acre Anaheim Hills victim activism on the you from your disintegrating home.
(62 hectare) hillslope from the 16th to the Web Steiner details the impacts of these events
17th of January 1993 in a neighbourhood This website contains hundreds of pages on his neighbors and himselfdivorces,
of luxury homes on view sites in the and links. Some of these are the authors medical interventions for suicidal actions,
Anaheim Hills (Woo and Powell 1993). sarcastic commentaries on the process bankruptcies, weight loss, and drug
This development was started in 1973 on and the politicians and lawyers involved. problems with a this could be you if
known ancient landslides that had expe- Others are maps from the USGS or you buy in the hills of Orange County
rienced some sliding in the early 1960s, California Division of Mines and Geology, tone.
and the slide may have been activated by showing hazard-prone areas. Still others Unlike the Cassini debate, this site is all
leakage from polyethylene plastic water are geological reports and environmental about fairness and control. Steiner feels
conduits the City had adopted as its impact statements and news reports from that local government and realtors did not
specification before this development, in the Orange County Register, the local disclose enough information for potential
1967. In the wake of the slide, a few dozen newspaper. The site includes a timeline of homebuyers to understand the risk they
Autumn 2001 59
lists of keywords that search engine lions of readers and thousands of sub- References
spiders can use to classify and prioritise scribers, each of whom can forward Bagdikian B.H. 1997, The media monopoly,
sites they find on their own as they crawl information to their email and listserver 5th ed. Beacon, Boston.
through the web. Also, frequent changes circles (and other UseNet news boards). Blanchard-Boehm D. 1997, Risk com-
to a web site make it more attractive to Much of the early activism around Cassini munication in Southern California:
search engines. was conducted on UseNet, and my sus- Ethnic and gender response to 1995
Another way to advertise a web page is picion is that UseNet provided the initial revised, upgraded earthquake proba-
through the Internet equivalent of direct exponential ripple in cyberspace that bilities, Natural Hazards Center, University
mail campaigns: announcements through produced very effective political pressure of Colorado, Boulder, Quick Response
email address books or on listservers. on elected risk management decision- Report 94. www.colorado.EDU/hazards/qr/
Probably most disaster planners and makers. The anti-Cassini movement traces qr94.html.
emergency managers are familiar with back, on UseNet, at least, to approximately Chong D. 1997,Nukes in space: The final
email and maintain their own address six individuals! frontier? NASA to launch nuclear-
books to exchange information among To be sure, there is now much hazards powered space probe, Awareness Maga-
colleagues (and, at home, to swap bad information online by responsible agen- zine, Sept/Oct, www.awarenessmag. com/
jokes with friends and family!). This cies and institutions (and a fair amount of so7_nuke.htm.
activity can be used to notify others of a misinformation by less moderate ele- City of Santa Cruz, 1997, City Council
web page or any other sort of information, ments). Disaster planners, especially, and minutes of 9/9/97. www.ci.santa-cruz.
but most personal email lists are too emergency managers might want to ca.us/cc/archives/97/9-9m.html.
limited to be of useat first. The thing explore having their staff follow UseNet Clark D.W. and McLarty M.W. 1999,Plan
to remember is that email can be used bulletin boards to identify appropriate of control prepared for proposed Santiago
like a chain letter, requesting the direct places for postings. The Déja.com search Geologic Hazard Abatement District,
recipients to forward the information on engine (www.deja.com/home_ps.shtml) can Anaheim Hills, Anaheim, California,
to anyone who they think might be provide access to these. Staff could also be http://anaheim-landslide.com/ghazard
interested. This introduces the expo- encouraged to post messages from an description.htm
nential expansion of a pyramid scheme agency on relevant community or subject Covello V. 1991, Risk comparisons and
or chain letter and was widely exploited boards and ask readers to forward them risk communication, in Communicating
by many of the Cassini activists. to anyone who might be interested in the risk to the public, ed. R.E. Kasperson and
Listservers are automatic email lists of information. Similarly, staff might be P.J.M. Stallen,Kluwer, Dordrecht, NL.
people who take the initiative to subscribe encouraged to identify and subscribe to Davis M. 1998, Ecology of fear: Los
to a list of interest to them. To email appropriate listservers and post similar Angeles and the imagination of disaster,
everyone on the list, one need not messages from time to time. Appropriate Metropolitan Books, New York.
maintain ones own address book or lists might be found at CataList (http:// Douglas M. and Wildavsky A. 1982, Risk
manually enter the address of every www.lsoft.com/catalist.html), Liszt (http:/ and culture: An essay on the selection of
individual: one simply sends a message /www.liszt.com/), or PAML (http://paml.net/). technical and environmental dangers,
to the list name (often merely by hitting Web page development is a necessary University of California Press, Berkeley,
the reply or respond button), just as anchor for such information dissemi- Los Angeles and London.
though to write a single person. The nation, and web pages should be modified Dymon U.J. and Boscoe F.P. 1996, News-
listserver software (e.g. Listserv, Listproc, fairly frequently to maintain search paper reporting in wake of the 1995 spring
and Majordomo) then automatically engine revisitsand serve as occasions floods in Northern California. Natural
routes the message to all on the list. Each Hazards Center, University of Colorado,
for communicating through listservers
list may have anywhere from a dozen to Boulder, Quick Response Report 81.
and UseNet.
several thousand subscribers. Getting www.colorado.EDU/hazards/qr/qr81.html.
To be sure, such transparent communi-
information out on a listserver and Elliott D. 1989, Tales from the Darkside:
cation might backfire. NASAs publicity
requesting that the message be sent to Ethical implications of disaster coverage,
offices utilise the web, UseNet, and
anyone the recipients think might be In Bad tidings: Communication and
interested dramatically increases the listserversand may thereby have made catastrophe, ed. L. Masel Walters, L. Wilkins,
compounding power of chain letter themselves a target for anti-nuclear and T. Walters, pp. 161170. Lawrence
mathematics. This was one of the prin- activism. Even so, communication of Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, New Jersey.
cipal avenues utilised by the Cassini information beyond the controls and Fischer H.W. III. 1999,Using cyberspace
activists to get their messages out and interests of conventional media serve the to enhance disaster mitigation, planning
propagating exponentially. democratic purpose of creating an and response: Opportunities and limi-
Still another channel that might be informed citizenry and, hopefully, a tations, Australian Journal of Emergency
explored to get information past the proactive and coöperative one with the Management vol. 14, no. 3, pp.6064.
controls of traditional media is UseNet. information necessary to prepare for www.ema.gov.au/5virtuallibrary/pdfs/
UseNet is the Internet equivalent of a disaster and cope with it afterwards. vol14no3/fischer.pdf.
bulletin board. Unlike listservers, UseNet I know no safe depository of the Fischhoff Baruch, 1994, Acceptable risk:
postings may be read by anyone curious ultimate powers of society but the people A conceptual proposal, Risk 5, no. 1, p.1 ff,
enough to visit a news board, search for a themselves; and if we think them not w w w. f p l c . e d u / r i s k / v o l 5 / w i n t e r /
subject on the Déja.com UseNet search enlightened enough to exercise their Fischhof.htm.
engine or, increasingly, through any search control with a wholesome discretion, the Gates H.L. 1999, One Internet, two
engine. Like listservers, however, people remedy is not to take it from them, but nations, New York Times, Op-Ed section
must subscribe to a board to have posting to inform their discretion (Jefferson (October 31), www.tecnet.or.jp/~furuno/
privileges. UseNet boards can have mil- 1821). cybersegregation.htm.
Autumn 2001 61