Clark 1

The Math of Horse Genetics Jaclyn Clark Math 1030-010 12/11/2013

Clark 2 For my final math project I will be looking at the math involved with horse coat genetics. I will look at possible bias and representative sample size within the research, and then I will pick three genetic markers to look at specifically and calc late the probability of certain o tcomes with those genes based pon the research. I will then look specifically at the stallion ! nc t male horse" #illion $oolah and the mare !female horse" #ash For #illion. I will determine whether having a foal !baby horse" is an independent or dependent event, and then calc late what the probably was of having the past fo r foals that they have had. I have chosen to do my final project on this s bject beca se I love horses and I have an interest in e% ine biology, so I will enjoy sing what I have learned in this class to analyze horse genetics. &hile the color of a horse has no affect on a horse's athletic ability, skill, temperament, or willingness to learn, many riders prefer certain colors or patterns and this plays a factor in what horse they choose to b y. $any horse breeders will own certain stallions and mares beca se they wish to prod ce(on top of good confirmation !physical str ct re" and temperament( specific colors that they like, or that are pop lar. )owever, the genetics behind a horse's coat can be very complicated, and as s ch a lot of research has been done on the s bject, which is why I believe the s bject to be relevant and worth investigating. In 1**+ seventy scientists from twenty different co ntries got together and created the )orse ,enome -roject, their goal being to map the horse genome. .he project was completed in 2//0 and they had se% enced the entire genome of horses, which they separated into 1/,///,/// pieces and determined the #23 se% ence of each piece !456.ed ". I believe that the large n mber of scientists from all different areas working on the project wo ld co nter possible bias and gives certain credibility. .he project, which I wo ld define as an observational st dy, took samples from at least seven different breeds of horses in what I believe to be a stratified sampling method beca se they intentionally took samples from both modern and ancestral breeds in an effort to acco nt for genetic variability. )owever, sing only abo t seven different breeds when there are well over 1// different horse breeds

Clark 1 in the world co ld show sample bias and create a large margin of error !7ennett and 7riggs 1//, 1/2, 1/8, 112". .here are si9teen known genes that interact with each other to prod ce a horse's ni% e coat. 3 horse will inherit two genes of each type, one from each parent. For the p rpose of this paper I will only be looking at three different genes: ;9tension, 3go ti, and Cream. ;9tension is the base of all colors and decides whether that base will be black or red. 7lack is dominant and a horse needs only one ; gene to be black, and red is recessive and therefor needs two e genes to be red. .herefor a horse with either ;e or ;; will be black, and a horse with ee will be red. .he ago ti gene is a dil tion gene that only affects the dominant ; gene. .he dominant 3, with either one or two of them, dil tes the black hair to cover only the mane, tail and legs and makes the rest of the horse's body brown, creating a bay coloration, while two recessive a's have no effect. .he cream gene is a dil tion gene that affects both the black and red e9tension genes. <ne dominant Cr will t rn a black horse smoky black, a bay horse b ckskin, and a red !chestn t" horse palomino. .wo dominant Cr's will have a stronger dil ting affect on the base colors, while two recessive cr's will have no effect on the coat color !456.ed ". .his chart demonstrates the possibilities, with the gene on the left being from the father, and the right being from the mother:

;9tension 7 ckskin >moky 7lack 7lack 7ay Chestn t -alomino ;;=;e=e; ;;=;e=e; ;;=;e=e; ;;=;e=e; ee ee

3go ti 33=3a=a3 aa aa 3a=a3 33=3a=a3=aa 33=3a=a3=aa

Cream Crcr=crCr Crcr=crCr crcr crcr crcr Crcr=crCr

Clark ? 2ow I will look at the stallion and mare, #illion $oolah and #ash For #illion. #illion $oolah is a b ckskin stallion and is heterozygo s for e9tension, ago ti, and cream, meaning that he has one dominant and one recessive of each type, looking like this: ;e3aCrcr. #ash For #illion is a black mare that is a heterozygo s e9tension, with no dominant ago ti or cream genes, which looks like this: ;eaacrcr !laird% arterhorses.wordpress.com". .his means that #illion $oolah can pass on either a dominant or a recessive for each of these genes, and #ash For #illion will pass either a dominant or a recessive e9tension and will always pass on a recessive ago ti and cream gene. .herefor the only colors that their foals can be are b ckskin, smoky black, black, bay, chestn t or palomino !456.ed ". >ince they each can only pass on one of their genes for each type, and based on which genes are re% ired to make each color, this means that there are si9teen gene variations that can make these si9 different colors. .hree of the variations wo ld make a b ckskin, three more wo ld make smoky black, three more for black, three more for bay, two of them wo ld make chestn t, and the last two wo ld make a palomino foal. .he probabilities of these are as s ch:

Foal Coat: 7 ckskin >moky 7lack 7lack 7ay Chestn t -alomino

-robability: 1@.0+A 1@.0+A 1@.0+A 1@.0+A 12.+/A 12.+/A

In the last five years #illion $oolah and #ash For #illion have had fo r foals, a chestn t in 2//*, another chestn t in 2/1/, a b ckskin in 2/11, and a black foal in 2/12

Clark + !laird% arterhorses.wordpress.com". 7irthing a foal is an independent event and has no effect on what the ne9t foal will look like. .herefor, sing the 3nd -robability: Independent ;vents e% ation, the set p looks like this: -!C, C, 7 and 7l" B -!C" 9 -!C" 9 -!7 " 9 -!7l", making the probability of this o tcome /./++A. .he ,ambler's Fallacy might make yo think that they are d e for a smoky black or a bay foal, since they have not had either yet and both have a somewhat higher chance than the palomino, b t each birth is an independent event and the probability of each color is still the same !7ennett and 7riggs ?2*, ??2". In concl sion the research done on horse genetics probably does not have a bias within the scientists, b t co ld have a sampling bias that creates a larger margin of error from only sing abo t seven different breeds in their st dy. I have looked at the genetic markers ;9tension, 3go ti, and Cream and shown the types of coats they can create. In looking at a b ckskin stallion and a black mare I have shown that having a foal is an independent event, I calc lated the probability of each type of color, and have shown that the probability of the two horses having the last fo r foals that they did was /./++A.

Clark 8 Bibliography 7ailey, ;. UKY. )orse ,enome -roject, 2/ #ec. 2/11. &eb. * #ec. 2/11. 7ennett, Ceffry and &illiam 7riggs. Using & Understanding Mathematics: A Quantitative Reasoning Approach. +th ed. 7oston: -earson ;d cation Inc., 2/11. -rint Daird, 7. Laird Quarter Horses. Daird E arter )orses, 3 g. 2/11. &eb. * #ec. 2/11.