Chng 4:

HOCH NH LI NHUN
Phn tch ha vn n cn nh ph n cn n n cn tng hp

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ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M TP.HCM

Phn tch ha vn
L k thut phn tch im ha vn, trn c s hoch nh li nhun cho doanh nghip

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ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M TP.HCM

Chi ph phn loi chi ph

Chi ph l biu hin bng tin ton b hao ph v lao ng sng v lao ng vt ha pht sinh trong qu trnh hat ng. Phn lai chi ph theo tnh cht, ni dung ca chi ph
CP NVL
CP dch v mua ngai

CP nhn cng

CP khu hao TSC

CP khc bng tin

Phn lai theo mi quan h vi i tng chu chi ph

CP trc tip CP c lin quan n 1 i tng CP gin tip CP c lin quan n nhiu i tng

Phn lai chi ph theo chc nng hat ng

Chi ph

CP sn xut

CP ngai sn xut CP sx chung

CP NVL trc tip

CP nhn cng trc tip

CP bn hng

CP QLDN

CP ban u

CP ch bin

CPSX: L CP lin quan n ch to SP, dch v trong 1 thi k. CPSX trong DN xy lp, ngai 3 khon mc CP nu trn (CP NVL tt, CP nctt, CPsxc) cn c thm 1 khon mc l CP s dng my thi cng. CP ngai SX: l CP lin quan n tiu th Sp v qun l chung ton DN

Phn lai CP theo mi quan h vi thi k xc nh li nhun

Chi ph CP sn phm CP thi k

CP NVL trc tip

CP nhn cng trc tip

CP sx chung

CP bn hng

CP QLDN

Gi tr SP SP tiu th

GVHB trong k

CP trong k

CP sn phm: CP gn lin vi gi tr SP sn xut hoc hng ha mua. CP sn phm c tnh l ph tn trong k xc nh KQKD khi SP tiu th CP thi k: l CP gn lin vi tng thi k kinh doanh, khng gn vi gi tr SP. CP ny c tnh l ph tn trong k pht sinh CP xc nh KQKD

Phn lai CP theo cch ng x ca chi ph

-ng x ca chi ph: chi ph s thay i nh th no khi thay i mc hot ng -Mc hot ng: l s sn phm sn xut,. S gi my sn xut, s gi lao ng trc tip, s sn phm tiu th, doanh thu, -Cn c phn lai: cn c vo mi quan h ca s bin i ca CP v s bin i ca mc hot ng

Chi ph Bin ph nh ph

Phn loi chi ph

Doanh thu

Tng CP
Bin ph nh ph

EBIT EBIT

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ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M TP.HCM

Phn tch iM HA VN
L im ti li nhun = 0 hoc DT = tng CP hoc DT = Bin ph + nh ph im ha vn thng c biu th thng qua cc i lng

Sn lng ha vn Doanh thu ha vn

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Sn lng ha vn (Q*)
DT CP = LN im ha vn DT CP = 0 DT Bin ph nh ph = 0 DT V F =0 pQ* vQ* F =0

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Doanh thu ha vn (DT*)

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10

Doanh thu ha vn (DT*)

bt k mc sn lng tiu th no u c:

Bi 17 Bi 21
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Cng ty KTC
Cng ty KTC sn xut sn phm A vi bin ph n v l 25$, nh ph l 100.000$, sn phm A c bn vi gi 50$/n v. Sn lng ha vn = 4.000 n v Doanh thu ha vn = 200.000 $

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 TH iM HA VN
Doanh thu
Chi ph hoac doanh thu Li
DT*
F

Tong CP nh ph Lo
0 Q*

Bien ph

Sn lng

n cn nh ph (n by hot ng)

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n cn nh ph

(n by hot ng OL)
n cn nh ph - Operating Leverage S dng nh ph nhm n lc gia tng li nhun (EBIT) 3 yu t c bn ca n cn nh ph

Yu t tc ng: im ta: Vt cn by:

Doanh thu thay i nh ph EBIT

T s n cn nh ph
nh ph / Tng CP nh ph / Tng DT
15/12/2013 ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M TP.HCM 15

Phn tch tc ng ca n cn nh ph n EBIT

Cng ty F Cng ty V Cng ty 2F

Doanh thu CP hot ng nh ph Bin ph EBIT T s n cn nh ph nh ph / Tng CP nh ph / Tng DT

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10.000
7.000 2.000

11.000
2.000 7.000

19.500
14.000 3.000

1.000

2.000

2.500

0,78 0,70

0,22 0,18

0,82 0,72
16

ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M TP.HCM

Doanh thu tng 50% trong nhng nm k tip c 3 cng ty

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Phn tch tc ng ca n cn nh ph n EBIT

Cng ty F Cng ty V Cng ty 2F Doanh thu CP hot ng nh ph 15.000 7.000 16.500 2.000 29.250 14.000

Bin ph
EBIT T l % thay i ca EBIT (EBITt EBITt-1)/EBITt-1

3.000 5.000 400%

10.500 4.000 100%

4.500 10.750 330%

Khng phi cng ty no c nh ph cao th EBIT s nhy cm hn ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M

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o lng tc ng ca n cn nh ph ln EBIT

nghing n cn nh ph - DOL (Degree of Operating Leverage): ch tiu o lng tc ng ca n cn nh ph ln EBIT khi s lng tiu th hoc doanh thu thay i

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 nghing n cn dinh phi ti mc sn lng Q

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 nghing n cn nh ph ti mc doanh thu DT

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Cng ty KTC
Cng ty KTC sn xut sn phm A vi bin ph n v l 25$, nh ph l 100.000$, sn phm A c bn vi gi 50$/n v. Xc nh nghing n cn nh ph ti mc sn lng 5.000 v v 6.000 v DOL5.000 = 5 DOL6.000 = 3 mc sn lng 5.000 n v, khi sn lng tng 1% th EBIT s tng 5%. Tuy nhin, mc sn lng 6.000 n v (>5.000), khi sn lng tng 1% th EBIT tng 3%.

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Cng ty KTC
Cng ty KTC sn xut sn phm A vi bin ph n v l 25$, nh ph l 100.000$, sn phm A c bn vi gi 50$/n v. Xc nh nghing n cn nh ph ti mc sn lng t 0 n 8.000 v? Mc SL tiu th 0 1.000 2.000 3.000 EBIT -100.000 -75.000 -50.000 -25.000 DOL 0,00 -0,33 -1,00 -3,00

4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 15/12/2013

0 Khng xc nh 25.000 5,00 50.000 3,00 75.000 2,33 ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M 100.000 2,00 TP.HCM 23

Nhn xt

Doanh thu = 0 th DOL = 0 Cng xa im ha vn, li nhun (l) cng ln Cng xa im ha vn, DOL cng nh DOL tin n v cc khi s lng tiu th tin dn n im ha vn Khi s lng cng vt xa im ha vn th DOL s tin dn n 1.

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 th ca DOL

o nghieng on can nh ph (DOL)

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

QHV San lng hoac doanh thu

ng dng DOL
S dng s liu ca slide 16 1. Tnh DOL ca cng ty F ti mc doanh thu 10.000 2. Tnh DOL ca cng ty V ti mc doanh thu 11.000 3. Tnh DOL ca cng ty 2F ti mc doanh thu 19.500 4. Khi doanh thu ca c 3 cng ty tng 50% th EBIT ca mi cng ty s bin ng bao nhiu %?

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DOL & ri ro doanh nghip

Ri ro doanh nghip: ri ro do nhng bt n pht sinh trong hot ng ca doanh nghip khin cho li nhun ca doanh nghip b bin ng. Ri ro doanh nghip l s bt n hay s thay i ca doanh thu v chi ph sn xut. nh ph cao khng l ngun gc ca ri ro v nh ph cao cng khng gy nn ri ro nu doanh thu v c cu chi ph n nh n cn nh ph c tc dng khuych i s bin ng ca li nhun (EBIT) khuych i ri ro ca doanh nghip

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DOL & ri ro doanh nghip

Ri ro doanh nghip

Li n vay v c tc u i khng c xem xt khi phn tch n cn nh ph

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Bin ng s lng tiu th hoc doanh thu

DOL

EBIT c khuych i

EBIT

EBIT: li nhun trc thu v li vay

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ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M TP.HCM

 ngha ca DOL i vi QTTC

Nu tnh hnh tt th DOL s khuych i EBIT. Nu tnh hnh xu th DOL s khin cho l nhiu hn. Nhn chung cc Gim c ti chnh khng thch lm vic ti doanh nghip c n cn nh ph cao.

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n cn N (n by ti chnh)
FL Financial Leverage

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n cn nh ph - n cn n
Lin quan n vic s Lin quan n vic s dng nh ph trong hot dng ngun ti tr c chi ng ca doanh nghip ph c nh (n v c phiu u i) trong c cu ngun Phn tch tc ng ca vn ca doanh nghip nh ph ln EBIT Doanh nghip khng th Phn tch tc ng ca li la chn n cn nh ph n vay v c tc u i ln v n cn nh ph l do li nhun ca c phiu c im hot ng ca thng (EPS) hay ROE doanh nghip quyt nh Doanh nghip c th la chn s dng n cn n

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n cn n
Phn tch mi quan h gia li nhun trc thu v li vay (EBIT) vi li nhun trn c phn thng (EPS) hay ROE

nh gi hiu qu ca vic doanh nghip gia tng li nhun cho c ng thng bng cch s dng n cn n

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Phn tch mi quan h

EBIT vi EPS hoc ROE
L vic phn tch s nh hng ca cc phng n ti tr khc nhau i vi EPS Trn c s phn tch, xc nh im bng quan (indifferent point) l mc EBIT m ti cc phng n ti tr khc nhau u mang li EPS nh nhau. im bng quan cn c gi l im ha vn EBIT - EPS

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EPS

I t PD NS

- Li vay Thu sut thu TNDN C tc u i - S lng CP thng

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Xc nh im ha vn EBIT - EPS
Cng ty KTC c ngun vn di hn 10 triu $ hon ton l CP thng (200.000 CP thng) Cng ty ang cn huy ng thm 5 triu $ cho vic m rng sn xut kinh doanh Cng ty ang la chn 1 trong 3 phng n huy ng vn

(1) Pht hnh CP thng (100.000 CP thng vi gi bn 50$/CP) (2) Pht hnh TP vi li sut 12% (3) Pht hnh CP u i vi c tc 11%

EBIT hin ti ca cng ty l 1,5 triu $/nm K vng EBIT sau khi m rng SXKD s tng n 2,7 triu $ Thu sut thu TNDN l 40% ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M

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Xc nh im ha vn EBIT - EPS
Phng n ti tr EBIT Li vay (1) CP thng (2) N (3) CP u i 2.700.000 2.700.000 2.700.000 600.000 -

EBT Thu TNDN EAT PD LN ca CP thng S lng CP EPS

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2.700.000 1.080.000 1.620.000 1.620.000

300.000

2.100.000 810.000 1.260.000 1.260.000

200.000

2.700.000 1.080.000 1.620.000 550.000 1.070.000

200.000

ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M TP.HCM

5,4

6,3

5,35
36

Xc nh im ha vn EBIT EPS
theo phng php hnh hc
EPS iem hoa von gia CP u ai va CP thng

CP u ai N CP thng
iem hoa von gia CP thng va N

EBIT

Xc nh im ha vn EBIT EPS
theo phng php i s
Gi EBIT1,2 l im ha vn gia phng n 1 v 2 l mc EBIT m EPS ca 2 phng n bng nhau.
Ti tr bng CP thng Ti tr bng N

EBIT1,2 =

1.800.000$

Tng t tm im ha vn gia hai phng n 1,3 v hai phng n 2,3

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 ngha ca im ha vn EBIT- EPS

im ha vn gia phng n ti tr bng CP thng & ti tr bng N

Nu EBIT < im ha vn EPSCP thng cao hn Nu EBIT > im ha vn EPSN cao hn

im ha vn gia phng n ti tr bng CP thng & ti tr bng CP u i

Nu EBIT < im ha vn EPSCP thng cao hn Nu EBIT > im ha vn EPSCP u i cao hn
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 nghing n cn n (DFL)

L % thay i ca EPS hoc ROE so vi % thay i ca EBIT

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ng dng DFL
S dng s liu ca slide 35 1. Tnh DFL ti mc EBIT 2.700.000$ vi phng n ti tr bng vn c phn thng, phng n CP u i v phng n ti tr bng N. 2. Phng thc ti tr no s lm cho EPS bin ng nhiu nht?

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Bin ng ca EPS
Ti mc EBIT 2.700.000$ DFLCP thng = 1; DFLN = 1,29; DFLCP u i = 1,51 DFL ca phng n ti tr bng CP u i > DFL ca phng n ti tr bng N. ngha? Khi no DFL ca phng n ti tr bng CP u i < DFL ca phng n ti tr bng N?
Ph thuc vo vn tit kim thu do s dng N [I(1-t)] vi c tc u i PD ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M
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DFL CP u i < DFL N Nu PD < I(1-t)

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Ri ro ti chnh

Ri ro ti chnh: ri ro bin ng trn c phn kt hp vi ri ro mt kh nng chi tr pht sinh do doanh nghip s dng n cn n.
Ri ro bin ng EPS (khi s dng n DFL = 1,29 theo v d) Ri ro mt kh nng chi tr? Khi gia tng t trng ngun ti tr c chi ph c nh trong c cu ngun vn Dng tin chi tr li hoc c tc u i cng tng theo Xc sut mt kh nng chi tr tng ln Nu EBIT A B ca 2 cng ty EBIT 80.000 80.000 u gim Li 30.000 xung cn EBT 80.000 50.000 20.000? ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M
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n cn n thch hp?
Mc ti a cc ngun ti tr c chi ph c nh (n, c phiu u i) & cc khon tin tr c nh khc (tr tin thu mn) ca 1 doanh nghip = ? Doanh nghip phi phn tch dng tin k vng trong tng lai v s vng mnh ca dng tin k vng s lm cho kh nng tr n ln hn.

ThS. Nguyn Nh nh H M TP.HCM

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45

n cn n thch hp

Xem xt T s thanh ton li vay

Phn nh kh nng thanh ton li vay v vic s dng vn T s = 1 LN kinh doanh ch tr li vay

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n cn n thch hp

Xem xt T s thanh ton N

Phn

nh kh nng thanh ton li vay v tr n gc khi n hn

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n cn n thch hp

Cc phng php khc

C cu vn nh gi ca nh phn tch u t v cho vay Phn hng chng khon

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Tng ri ro
n cn tng hp l vic doanh nghip s dng kt hp c nh ph v chi ph ti tr c nh. Khi s dng kt hp, n cn nh ph v n cn n tc ng n EPS khi s lng sn phm tiu th thay i. Tc ng ny c thc hin qua 2 bc

Bc 1: S lng SP tiu th thay i lm thay i EBIT (tc ng ca n cn nh ph) Bc 2: EBIT thay i lm thay i EPS (tc ng ca n cn n)

Ch tiu nghing n cn tng hp c s dng o lng mc bin ng ca EPS khi sn lng thay i
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 nghing n cn tng hp DCL

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DCL

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