Impacts of Climate change on agriculture

Broad scientific agreement now exists that continued accumulation of heattrapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will eventually lead to changes in the global climate, and in the climates of regions around the world. The agreement is expressed in the 1996 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international body of leading natural and social scientists sponsored by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. According to the panels report, an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) will force a rise in global average surface temperature of 1.0 to 3.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. Average precipitation also will rise as much 10 to 15 percent because a warmer atmosphere holds more water. The general circulation models (GCMs) that the IPCC used to analyze climate change are in reasonably good agreement that with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 the global average temperature will rise within the range of 1.0 to 3.5 degrees Celsius, as indicated above. The models also agree reasonably well that the northern latitudes will warm more than the tropics. With respect to all other regional changes, however, agreement among the models is poor. Because human activities and ecological systems are highly variable among regions, this lack of accord greatly complicates the task of estimating the impacts of the changes on activities of interest to humans. Despite this limitation, much useful work has been done on estimating the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios. In this paper potential climate change impacts on agriculture are examined on both a global scale and with regard to the United States in particular. Even if the readers interest lies only in the impact on the United States, the global scale still must be considered. U.S. agriculture is inextricably entwined with agriculture worldwide. What might happen nationally cannot be understood without taking account of impacts elsewhere in the world. GLOBAL IMPACTS The IPCC report estimates climate change impacts on grain production at the global level and then zeros in on the estimated effect on the developed countries (DCs) of North America and Europe as well as on the less developed countries (LDCs) of Asia, Africa, and Latin America.(Grain is often used as a proxy for all food because it accounts

for over half of all food calories consumed in the world.) The sources of the IPCC estimates are the three different GCMs, reflecting four different scenarios for estimating climate change impact on grain production.
First scenario. Disregards any adjustments that farmers might make to offset the

impacts of climate change on grain production, and disregards the effects on production of an atmosphere richer in CO2. (CO2 is essential to plant growth, and much experimental work shows that higher concentrations of it in the atmosphere in fact stimulate such growth);
Second scenario. Incorporates the CO2 enriching effect on growth; Third scenario. Includes both the CO2 enriching effect and the effect of modest

adjustments that farmers could make using currently known practices, for example, shifting to a different variety of the same crop and changing the planting date by less than one month in response to a change in the length of the growing season;
Fourth scenario. Includes the CO2 effect on growth, the modest adjustments to

farming just mentioned, as well as more ambitious adjustments, such as shifting to an entirely different crop, changing the planting date by more than one month, and using more irrigation. The farming adjustments considered in the IPCC scenarios apparently did not include developing entirely new crop varieties designed to be more productive under changed climate conditions. However, research done on the impacts of climate change in the midwestern United States indicates that such new technologies could potentially offset much of the negative effects of climate change on crop production. And, since the climate change contemplated is not expected to be fully realized until sometime in the second half of the next century, plenty of time is still available for researchers to develop the new technologies needed to make this most advanced type of adjustment (see further discussion of this adjustment in the account of impacts on U.S. agriculture, below). The range in each entry reflects differences in the results obtained with the various climate models. Notably, the CO2 fertilization effect substantially reduces yield losses and may even lead to net increases in grain output in developed countries as a whole. Smaller but significant offsets are obtained by allowing for adaptive behavior by farmers. Notwithstanding these adjustments and offsets, however, climate change is indicated by the IPCC report to reduce grain yields in developing nations, underscoring the greater vulnerability of these countries.

The sharp difference in impact that climate change is expected to have on grain production in developed as opposed to less developed countries has two main causes. The first one might be called the physical factor. As noted above, the GCMs estimate that the high latitudes will warm more than the tropics. Most of the DCs are in the northern latitudes, and their agriculture would benefit from the longer growing seasons that a warmer climate would bring. Most LDCs, on the other hand, include much terrain in the tropics where the negative effects of a warmer climate would not be offset by other favorable trends. The second reason might be called the eco-structural factor. The IPCC notes that, compared with the LDCs, the DCs have much greater economic resources that can be devoted to helping farmers adjust to climate change. In addition, the institutional structures of the DCs appear to be more efficient than those in the LDCs in mobilizing the resources needed to pursue specific social objectives, whether they be adjustments to climate change or anything else. If the GCMs are right in predicting generally beneficial climate change in the northern latitudes, then the physical factor accounting for the difference in impacts on the DCs and the LDCs would seem to be pretty much fixed. But the effect of the eco-structural factor may be more malleable. In east and southeast Asia, and to a lesser extent in south Asia, agricultural performance over the last 10 to 15 years has been impressive. Farmers have adopted new, more productive technologies as they have become available and production, both per person and per hectare, has increased. This strong agricultural performance has been part of a generally impressive economic performance in the countries of those regions. It is not clear why some Asian countries have been so much more successful than countries in Latin America, and especially in Africa. Their success does suggest, however, that the eco- structural weaknesses so common now among the LDCs are not fixed for all time. The Asian experience offers some promise that, given time and incentive to improve their material standard, farmers in other LDCs can and will seize the opportunities presented. This prospect provides some reason to hope that by the time that climate change begins to impinge negatively on LDCs, they will have developed a capacity to adjust to it well beyond what they could accomplish under present conditions. If so, the differences between the DCs and LDCs in terms of the effects of climate change on grain production could be much less than the 1996 IPCC report suggests. Recent studies done at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and by Cynthia

Rosenzweig and Martin Parry generally support the findings of the 1996 IPCC report about the global impacts of climate change on agriculture. A 1995 USDA study, for example, indicates that overallthe impacts would be small, taking into account adjustments in agriculture and other sectors of the economy made possible by wide trading opportunities among countries. Specifically, the study showed that, given these trading opportunities, gross world economic product in the face of climate change would be 0.2 lessor 0.1 percent morethan it would be in the absence of climate change. Allowing for trading opportunities and farm-level adjustments, including the ability of farmers to move land into and out of production depending on the economic effects of climate change, the study found that world cereal production would increase 0.2 to 1.2 percent. These results did not include the positive production effects of CO2 enrichment. Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide, glacial run-off, precipitation and the interaction of these elements. These conditions determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals. The overall effect of climate change on agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the effects of global climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to maximize agricultural production. At the same time, agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on climate change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, but also by altering the Earth's land cover, which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus contributing to radiative forcing. Land use change such as deforestation and desertification, together with use of fossil fuels, are the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide; agriculture itself is the major contributor to increasing methane and nitrous oxide concentrations in Earth's atmosphere. Climate change threatens to reverse the gains achieved in human development as droughts, floods, intermittent rainfall and extremes of temperature, among other variables induced by climate change, compromise potential food and income security (Dervis, 2007). This is especially so in the developing world where the majority of people (and the majority of the poor) depend on rain- fed agriculture for sustenance (Devereaux and Maxwell, 2001). Even in cases where these smallholder and often resource-poor farmers have adequate access to land and agricultural inputs, the fruits of their resources and labour are challenged by the

complexities of the increasing climatic changes. These poor and vulnerable farmers unfortunately have had limited capacity to adapt, and in many cases policy and institutional, financial and legal factors, as well as a lack of political will, have added to their constraints. Given the increased frequency of extreme weather events induced by climate change, creating a framework for adaptation is crucial to protect the poorest and most vulnerable.

The important role of seed security (including both saved and purchased seed) as a determinant for food security in households that depend on agriculture cannot be overemphasised. Due to financial constraints, the majority of smallholder farmers in developing countries have saved and traded in seed for many generations, and have developed seed which possesses favourable characteristics, such as drought resistance or high yield potential. This study is based on the premise that seed saving is an important component in ensuring household food security for smallholder farmers, particularly in view of the uncertainties caused by climate change, and by resource constraints. It investigates the role that seed saving plays as a strategy helping farmers to adapt to an ever-changing climate. It also explores the issues limiting farmers' access to, marketing and preservation of plant genetic resources as a basis for ensuring seed security. Study objectives

To explore the role of seed diversity in managing the effects of climate change in Romania by analysing the extent to which seed conservation practices are a key part of adaptation strategies to climate change, and to provide evidence on the importance of seed saving in guaranteeing the food security.

To assess the extent to which current national and international legal frameworks protect small-scale farmers' access to and preservation of indigenous seed varieties. In particular, to analyse current and potential synergies and conflicts between two biodiversity-related conventions, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (UNCBD) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

To make recommendations for the setting up of policies, systems and structures that encourage indigenous seed production, conservation and marketing as a strategy to adapt to food security challenges (especially owing to climate change), based on best practice.

To make recommendations for donors and policymakers on how to put systems and structures in place for supporting programmes for the production, conservation and marketing of indigenous seeds.

Climate change threatens to reverse the gains achieved in human development as droughts, floods, intermittent rainfall and extremes of temperature, among other variables induced by climate change, compromise potential food and income security (Dervis, 2007). This is especially so in the developing world where the majority of people (and the majority of the poor) depend on rain- fed agriculture for sustenance (Devereaux and Maxwell, 2001). Even in cases where these smallholder and often resource-poor farmers have adequate access to land and agricultural inputs, the fruits of their resources and labour are challenged by the complexities of the increasing climatic changes. These poor and vulnerable farmers unfortunately have had limited capacity to adapt, and in many cases policy and institutional, financial and legal factors, as well as a lack of political will, have added to their constraints. Given the increased frequency of extreme weather events induced by climate change, creating a framework for adaptation is crucial to protect the poorest and most vulnerable.

Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms, and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. The Earth's average surface temperature has increased by 1.5F (0.83C) since 1880. Consequently, agronomists consider any assessment has to be individually consider each local area.

On the other hand, agricultural trade has grown in recent years, and now provides significant amounts of food, on a national level to major importing countries, as well as comfortable income to exporting ones. The international aspect of trade and security in terms of food implies the need to also consider the effects of climate change on a global scale.

A study published in Science suggests that, due to climate change, "southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its main crop, maize, by 2030. In South Asia losses of many regional staples, such as rice, millet and maize could top 10%".

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced several reports that have assessed the scientific literature on climate change. The IPCC Third Assessment Report, published in 2001, concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest hit, with reductions in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability, and new or changed insect pest incidence. In Africa and Latin America many

rainfed crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected. Marine life and the fishing industry will also be severely affected in some places.

Climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to affect crops differently from region to region. For example, average crop yield is expected to drop down to 50% in Pakistan according to the UKMO scenario whereas corn production in Europe is expected to grow up to 25% in optimum hydrologic conditions.

More favourable effects on yield tend to depend to a large extent on realization of the potentially beneficial effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and increase of efficiency in water use. Decrease in potential yields is likely to be caused by shortening of the growing period, decrease in water availability and poor vernalization.

In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways :

productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, and hydraulic amenities. adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans may develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice.

They are large uncertainties to uncover, particularly because there is lack of information on many specific local regions, and include the uncertainties on magnitude of climate change, the effects of technological changes on productivity, global food demands, and the numerous possibilities of adaptation.

Most agronomists believe that agricultural production will be mostly affected by the severity and pace of climate change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If change is gradual, there may be enough time for biota adjustment. Rapid climate change, however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less time for optimum natural selection and adaption.

But much remains unknown about exactly how climate change may affect farming and food security, in part because the role of farmer behaviour is poorly captured by cropclimate models. For instance, Evan Fraser, a geographer at the University of Guelph in Ontario Canada, has conducted a number of studies that show that the socio-economic context of farming may play a huge role in determining whether a drought has a major, or an insignificant impact on crop production. In some cases, it seems that even minor droughts have big impacts on food security (such as what happened in Ethiopia in the early 1980s where a minor drought triggered a massive famine), versus cases where even relatively large weather related problems were adapted to without much hardship. Evan Fraser combines socio-economic models along with climatic models to identify vulnerability hotspots One such study has identified US maize (corn) production as particularly vulnerable to climate change because it is expected to be exposed to worse droughts, but it does not have the socioeconomic conditions that suggest farmers will adapt to these changing conditions.

Observed impacts
So far, the effects of regional climate change on agriculture have been relatively limited. Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of the response to recent regional climate change. Phenology is the study of natural phenomena that recur periodically, and how these phenomena relate to climate and seasonal changes. A significant advance in phenology has been observed for agriculture and forestry in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

Droughts have been occurring more frequently because of global warming and they are expected to become more frequent and intense in Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Their impacts are aggravated because of increased water demand, population growth, urban expansion, and environmental

protection efforts in many areas. Droughts result in crop failures and the loss of pasture grazing land for livestock.

Projections
As part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, Schneider et al. (2007) projected the potential future effects of climate change on agriculture. With low to medium confidence, they concluded that for about a 1 to 3 C global mean temperature increase (by 2100, relative to the 19902000 average level) there would be productivity decreases for some cereals in low latitudes, and productivity increases in high latitudes. In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, "low confidence" means that a particular finding has about a 2 out of 10 chance of being correct, based on expert judgement. "Medium confidence" has about a 5 out of 10 chance of being correct. Over the same time period, with medium confidence, global production potential was projected to:[ increase up to around 3 C, very likely decrease above about 3 C.

Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al. (2007) had not incorporated a number of critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had also not considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid adaptation to climate change.

The US National Research Council (US NRC, 2011) assessed the literature on the effects of climate change on crop yields. US NRC (2011) stressed the uncertainties in their projections of changes in crop yields.

Projected changes in crop yields at different latitudes with global warming.

Projected changes in yields of selected crops with global warming. Their central estimates of changes in crop yields are shown above. Actual changes in yields may be above or below these central estimates. US NRC (2011) also provided an estimated the "likely" range of changes in yields. "Likely" means a greater than 67% chance of being correct, based on expert judgement. The likely ranges are summarized in the image descriptions of the two graphs.

Food security
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also describes the impact of climate change on food security. Projections suggested that there could be large decreases in hunger globally by 2080, compared to the (then-current) 2006 level. Reductions in hunger were driven by projected social and economic development. For reference, the Food and Agriculture Organization has estimated that in 2006, the number of people undernourished globally was 820 million. Three scenarios without climate change (SRES A1, B1, B2) projected 100-130 million undernourished by the year 2080, while another scenario without climate change (SRES A2) projected 770 million undernourished. Based on an expert assessment of all of the evidence, these projections were thought to have about a 5-in-10 chance of being correct.

The same set of greenhouse gas and socio-economic scenarios were also used in projections that included the effects of climate change. Including climate change, three scenarios (SRES A1, B1, B2) projected 100-380 million undernourished by the year 2080, while another scenario with climate change (SRES A2) projected 740-1,300 million undernourished. These projections were thought to have between a 2-in-10 and 5-in-10 chance of being correct.

Projections also suggested regional changes in the global distribution of hunger. By 2080, sub-Saharan Africa may overtake Asia as the world's most food-insecure region. This is mainly due to projected social and economic changes, rather than climate change.

"Climate change merely increases the urgency of reforming trade policies to ensure that global food security needs are met" said C. Bellmann, ICTSD Programmes Director. A 2009 ICTSD-IPC study by Jodie Keane suggests that climate change could cause farm output in sub-Saharan Africa to decrease by 12 percent by 2080 - although in some African countries this figure could be as much as 60 percent, with agricultural exports declining by up to one fifth in others. Adapting to climate change could cost the agriculture sector $14bn globally a year, the study finds.

GMOs and their implications for seed saving and climate change
Farmers' perceptions of GMOs Evidence from the study indicates that there is almost no knowledge on the issue of GMOs among farmers: 98 per cent of respondents in the household survey did not know what GMOs were. The quotes below show what happened in one focus group after farmers were asked what they understood GMOs to be: 'GMOs are Genetically Modified Organisms. They take a gene from a broiler because it matures fast, and place it in maize. The resulting maize plant then matures in eight weeks like the broiler,' said one focus group participant from Murehwa. The other participants replied, 'If that maize can be brought here, we would like it very much because it would fit into our rainfall season well.' Some farmers felt that GMOs would allow for the development of seed varieties which are adaptable to current and future harsh climatic conditions within a shorter time frame than would be possible with conventional breeding. They argued that the environmental risks would be minimal, as the GMOs were only hastening processes that would occur normally anyway, but in a longer time frame. Implications of GMOs for the preservation of plant genetic resources Romania has no clear policy on GMOs but the general stance is that GMOs are restricted from entering the country, or used only under controlled environments for research purposes. The main concern has been their potential health and biodiversity risks, which are still uncertain, as there is a lack of empirical evidence on either side of the debate. There is widespread lack of knowledge and awareness about GMOs, from policy makers to farmers, as the technology remains restricted to scientists and advocacy groups. A study conducted by the Biotechnology Trust found that the level of GM contamination in five sampled countries in the Southern African Development Community (excluding South Africa) ranged from 3 to 30 per cent (Emmett, 2006). Key to the GMO issue is the fact that biodiversity is under threat. Some seed which farmers consider to be their own may have traces of GM material, and it could be that the traits that farmers are selecting as favourable are actually those carried by GMOs. The implications are even more far reaching when this germplasm is collected by institutions working on crop improvement - such as the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre

(CIMMYT), and the government Crop Breeding Institute - and added to national collections. Selections and crosses of this germplasm will then mean that GM crops become widespread. GM contamination, especially where genes such as the 'terminator gene' are concerned, threatens the viability of crop seeds. Most importantly, it prevents farmers already struggling to access seed from saving their own seed. This worsens their vulnerability to both seed and food insecurity and weakens the biodiversity from which adaptable crops and varieties may be selected by farmers. GM contamination would also lead to the loss of some traditional European Union markets which restrict GM contamination to less than 0.9 per cent, resulting in a loss of potential income for smallholder farmers involved in horticulture. Climate change and adaptation strategies Vulnerability to climate change Seventy-four per cent and 64 per cent of study respondents' livelihoods in Murehwa and UMP respectively depend directly on rain-fed and labour intensive agriculture. The changes in rainfall and temperature associated with climate change therefore increase the risk of livelihood systems failing to produce adequate food and seed, or to provide sufficient income to purchase adequate food and seed to meet household requirements. Understanding the nature of farmers' vulnerability to climate change is the first step in determining what needs to be done to enable them to adapt. This section looks at perceptions of climate change and its impacts on food and seed security, and at strategies that have been implemented in both districts which mainstream climate change risk. Perceptions of climate change All the households interviewed believed that the climate has changed. From focus group discussions, it emerged that most of these changes had taken place in the last few years, with ranges from five to 20 years being given. The last good harvests were 1998 in Murehwa and in 2000 in UMP (which was related to Cyclone Eline). An 84-year-old respondent from Murehwa said that since the 1960s, rainfall has declined in both reliability and distribution. When asked how the climate had changed, based on first responses only, 50 per cent of respondents said that the rains were now less, 25 per cent mentioned delayed rains and 20 per cent said that the rains were now more erratic. Only five per cent of respondents cited warmer temperatures.

Implications of climate change on seed security Erratic rains mean that farmers have to use more seed than in a season with normal rainfall. Because of the high cost of seed and its unavailability, this makes some farmers' livelihoods very vulnerable. Prolonged midseason drought and poor rainfall distribution means that there is less moisture available for grain and seed to grow, and climate change. The women's

focus group discussions told how climate change had resulted in people moving from traditional farming to other livelihoods, including gold panning and working in urban areas. Some felt that this change brought benefits: those who migrated or found alternative sources of income could afford to buy enough fertiliser to meet their household needs. Others felt differently, saying that many of those who migrated came back sick (most often with HIV and AIDS-related illnesses), meaning that there was less labour available for farming, resulting in reduced food and seed security. Experts interviewed argued that on a national level, an increase in temperatures of 2C would make a large proportion of the areas currently used to grow maize unsuitable for its production. The limited feasibility of maize production in UMP is evidence of this. Simulation models have been developed and are being used to identify communities at high risk. Shifts in farming systems should encourage more resilient varieties and also encourage a shift in culture from maize to sorghum and millet.

Impact of agriculture on climate change

The agricultural sector is a driving force in the gas emissions and land use effects thought to cause climate change. In addition to being a significant user of land and consumer of fossil fuel, agriculture contributes directly to greenhouse gas emissions through practices such as rice production and the raising of livestock; according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the three main causes of the increase in greenhouse gases observed over the past 250 years have been fossil fuels, land use, and agriculture. Agriculture contributes to greenhouse gas increases through land use in four main ways: CO2 releases linked to deforestation Methane releases from rice cultivation Methane releases from enteric fermentation in cattle

Nitrous oxide releases from fertilizer application

Greenhouse gas emissions 1990-2010 Together, these agricultural processes comprise 54% of methane emissions, roughly 80% of nitrous oxide emissions, and virtually all carbon dioxide emissions tied to land use. The planet's major changes to land cover since 1750 have resulted from deforestation in temperate regions: when forests and woodlands are cleared to make room for fields and pastures, the albedo of the affected area increases, which can result in either warming or cooling effects, depending on local conditions. Deforestation also affects regional carbon reuptake, which can result in increased concentrations of CO2, the dominant greenhouse gas. Land-clearing methods such as slash and burn compound these effects by burning biomatter, which directly releases greenhouse gases and particulate matter such as soot into the air. Agriculture is a source of climate change but also a solution to climate change if adequate sustainable production measures are adopted that hold substantial mitigation potential, and that contribute to adapt agriculture and food production systems to extreme events, raising temperatures, and increasing CO2concentration. To adapt to climate change farmers will need to broaden their crop genetic base and use new cultivars and crop varieties. They will

need to adopt sustainable agronomic practices such as shift in sowing/planting dates, use of cover crop, live mulch and efficient management of irrigation and reduce the vulnerability of soil based agricultural production systems through the management of soil fertility, reduced tillage practices and management of the cycle of soil organic carbon more efficiently in grasslands and cropping systems. There will be a need to monitor pathogens, vectors and pests and assessing how well natural population control is working. Seed is one of the most crucial elements in the livelihoods of agricultural communities. It is the repository of the genetic potential of crop species and their varieties resulting from the continual improvement and selection process over time. The potential benefits from increasing the use of quality seeds of a diverse range of crop varieties by farmers are widely acknowledged as it increases food security through improved crop productivity. In addition, production increases brought about by the use of adapted varieties augment farmers income, when market linkages exist. Food security is heavily dependent on the seed security of the farming community. In many developing countries, however, farmers access to quality seed of a diverse range of adapted varieties has been impeded by factors such as weak seed production and distribution systems, poor seed quality assurance systems, lack of information about adaptation and quality of seed available in the market, lack of access to and credit for inputs and inadequate seed policies. Furthermore, the pressure from soaring food prices and climate change creates additional challenges. This document briefly describes the key challenges to seed security in developing countries and the essential elements for seed systems development to overcome the constraints through a strategic approach. It contributes to and develops the seed security-related aspects of FAOs new strategic framework for sustainable intensification of crop production. Impact of Soaring Food Prices and Climate Change on Seeds The recent food crisis characterized by volatility in food prices together with increases in input prices has resulted in high levels of food insecurity. The sharp rise in food prices in 2007/08 has presented dual characteristics. It has exposed the vulnerability of the food-insecure households that are net food buyers and who often rely on food grain for seed. The prices of seed and other agricultural inputs have increased leading to the lack of access and stagnation in production in developing countries. At the same time, higher food prices can be an opportunity to promote more productive agriculture based on the use of improved technologies, including improved varieties, quality seed, fertilizer, improved production practices, better information exchange and linkages between farmers and

markets. To seize that opportunity and ensure sustainable increases in food production, many governments and development institutions have realised that investment in seed production and supply systems is critical. With regard to climate change, recent trends and studies indicate that changing climatic patterns in the coming decades will result in increased abiotic and biotic stresses and therefore will directly impact food production. It is clear that strategies are needed to facilitate the adaptation of agriculture systems to climate change through better management of crop species and varieties. Agricultural diversification, crop and variety relocation, based on mapping agro- ecological zones and variety characterization, will be necessary to provide farmers with the germplasm (landraces and modern varieties) adapted to shifting agroecologies. Intensification of plant breeding activities will also be required to develop varieties adapted to changing agroecologies. Improved ways of transmitting information about crop variety adaptation through market and non-market channels are needed as well. These approaches will require countries to develop policies to ensure effective development and transfer of adapted varieties and information to and from farmers through effective seed supply systems. Challenges and Opportunities Soaring food prices and climate change imply a complex set of challenges for the entire seed system chain, and in particular vulnerable small farmers. Within a national context, seed systems need to be strengthened to make them more resilient. Strategies need to capture the value of plant genetic resources and their contribution to the local seed systems. Within the national, regional and international context there is a critical need for concerted action to address the issues in a comprehensive manner, and in particular taking into account the needs and demands of small farmers. A strategic approach is needed along with the full commitment of public and private sector players, an enabling environment, resources and a long-term perspective. Some of the main elements for such a strategic approach are as follows:

Better linkage of the formal and informal seed sector. The informal sector is the main provider of seed in much of the developing world as regards main food crops. In order to improve farmers access to quality seed, it is crucial to strengthen linkages between the formal and the informal seed systems.

Development of local seed enterprises. Seed production can be a profitable activity, especially for food crops with market potential. There is a need to adopt an integrated approach to support the emergence of small-scale seed enterprises through

organization of producers, linkage to markets and value adding.

Revitalize the public seed sector. The public sector has an important role because it is creating the enabling environment for seed sector development. Early generation seed multiplication from research institutions should be supported, as well as implementation of seed quality assurance and variety release systems.

Improved seed policies and legislation. The development or revision of seed policies and seed legislation is fundamental to rectify inadequacies in the existing system and provide the foundation for the growth of the seed sector oriented to serving the needs of the farmers and to protect them in cases of crisis.

Regional harmonization of seed rules and regulations. In many regions, crossborder seed trade is hampered by the differences between national seed rules and regulations. This barrier can be eliminated by harmonizing seed rules and regulations at the regional level. Facilitated seed trade will favour the development of the private seed sector and increase the availability of adapted varieties, since agro ecologies are similar in many neighbouring countries.

Better management of plant genetic resources. The loss of the plant genetic resources for food and agriculture of many local crop varieties and the genes contained therein is significantly affecting the potential of resilience of agricultural systems. Better coordination is needed to enhance the collection, conservation and characterization of germplasm. National capacities should also be increased to adequately map the crop diversity and the changing agro-ecosystems with a view to design crop/variety relocation strategies and breeding cultivars adapted to local conditions. Better information for seed security and seed sector development. Building capacity to develop, manage and disseminate information related to seed and planting material in the formal and informal seed sectors will contribute to seed sector development and improve seed security. Farmers, seed services, agricultural extension services, seed enterprises and non-governmental and international institutions need information to make decisions for the development of the seed systems and their rehabilitation after disasters.

Using this strategic approach, FAO is currently supporting member countries to strengthen their seed systems at the national and community level. In Africa, a continentwide African Seed and Biotechnology Programme established with the African Union provides a strategic framework for the development of the seed sector in Africa. At the subregional level there are number of initiatives for the harmonization of seed rules and regulations and to develop comprehensive regional seed sector development strategies. FAO also launched the Global Initiative on Plant Breeding (GIPB) with the aim of improving food security through the enhancement of national plant breeding capacity. FAO has conducted studies on factors affecting farmersaccess to seed and crop in local rural markets and potential means of improvement in Africa, Asia and Latin American countries. These

activities will strengthen seed systems and our knowledge about how they can be improved, thus assisting farmers to boost production and better meet environmental challenges arising from climate change.