Chap9 Monetary Policy

Chng 9
Chnh sch tin t

Nguyn Vit Hng
2
Mc tiu ca chng
Trnh by khi nim v cc ch tiu o lng tin
Trnh by c ch to tin trong h thng ngn hng
Trnh by cc cng c kim sot cung tin ca ngn
hng trung ng
Trnh by cc nhn t quyt nh ti nhu cu nm
gi tin ca dn chng
3
Mc tiu ca chng
Xc nh trng thi cn bng ca th trng tin t
Trnh by c ch tc ng ca chnh sch tin t
Trnh by cc cch kt hp chnh sch tin t v ti
kha
Trnh by mt s hn ch ca chnh sch tin t v
ti kha
4
Mc tiu ca chng
hng trung ng
gi tin ca dn chng
5
Khi nim v o lng tin
Khi nim
Tin l phng tin trao i c mi ngi chp nhn
v s dng rng ri
VD:
Tin giy 50.000 VND; 100.000 VND; ...
Tin xu 1.000 VND; 2.000 VND; 5.000 VND ...
T sc (tin gi khng k hn)...
Vng
ng h sinh vin dng CM QUN
6
Khi nim v o lng tin
o lng tin
M0 (Cu):
Tin mt (tin php quy) lu hnh trong dn chng
M1:
M0
Sc / Tin gi khng k hn
M2:
M1
Tin gi c k hn

Tin mt ngoi dn
chng
Tin gi khng k
hn
Tin gi tit kim
Tin gi c k
hn
Tin gi khc
Cung tin nc M
8
Khi nim v o lng tin
o lng Cu, M1, M2 ca Vit Nam bng
cch no?
9
Khi nim v o lng tin
Bng cn i ca ngn hng A vo 31/12/2005
Ti sn N
1. Tin d tr: 40 t 1. Tin gi khng k hn: 200 t
2. Cho vay: 800 t 2. Tin gi c k hn: 500 t
3. Ti sn khc (vn phng, thit
b...): 160 t
3. Vn gp: 300 t
Tng: 1000 t VND Tng: 1000 t VND
10
Khi nim v o lng tin
Bng cn i ca ngn hng B vo 31/12/2005
Ti sn N
1. Tin d tr: 80 t 1. Tin gi khng k hn: 400 t
2. Cho vay: 1600 t 2. Tin gi c k hn: 1000 t
3. Ti sn khc (vn phng, thit
b...): 320 t
3. Vn gp: 600 t
Tng: 2000 t VND Tng: 2000 t VND
11
Khi nim v o lng tin
Gi s
Ngn hng trung ng in v pht hnh ra nn
kinh t 300 t VND.
Ch c 2 ngn hng thng mi A v B
12
Khi nim v o lng tin
Tin mt Cu
Bng tng s tin nh nc in ra tr i s tin d
tr nm trong ngn hng thng mi
Cu = 300 t - (40 t + 80 t) = 180 t
13
Khi nim v o lng tin
M1
Bng tng s tin mt m dn chng nm gi
(Cu) cng vi s tin gi khng k hn ca ngn
hng thng mi (D Deposit)
M1 = Cu + D
M1 = 180 t + (200 t + 400 t) = 780 t
14
Khi nim v o lng tin
M2
Bng M1 cng vi tin gi khng k hn
M2 = 780 t + (1000 t + 500 t) = 2280 t
Cung tin Vit Nam
Year Cu (bn dong)
Demand deposit
(bn dong) M1 (bn dongs)
Foreign
deposit
(bn dong)
M2
(M1 + foreign
deposit)
1990 3735 3943 7678 3680 11358
1991 6419 5528 11947 8354 20301
1992 10579 8352 18931 8213 27144
1993 14218 10664 24882 7406 32288
1994 18624 14852 33476 9530 43006
1995 19170 22479 41649 11061 52710
1996 22639 28880 51519 13159 64678
1997 25101 37766 62867 18691 81558
1998 26965 51373 78338 24078 102416
1999 41547 63900 105447 37198 142646
2000 52208 100289 152497 70385 222882
2001 66319 124794 191113 88667 279781
2002 74263 161255 235518 93632 329150
2003 90583 223566 314149 97084 411233
2004 109099 298980 408079 128117 536195
Ngun:IMF v ADB, c tnh ton ca tc gi
16
Khi nim v o lng tin
Chc nng ca tin
Phng tin trao i
Phng tin ct tr gi tr
n v hch ton o lng
17
Mc tiu ca chng
hng trung ng
gi tin ca dn chng
18
C ch to tin ca ngn hng
Gi s khi nim tin lc ny l M1 (tin mt dn
chng nm gi v tin gi khng k hn)
Gi s Ngn hng Trung ng in v pht hnh ra
dn chng 1 t tin giy
S tin in v pht hnh ra ny c gi l lng tin c s
(MB: Monetary Base)

19
1. Dn chng nm gi 100% s tin ny di dng tin mt
dng lm phng tin trao i
Cu = 1 t
Tin gi khng k hn D = 0
Cung tin MS (cng chnh l M1) s bng:
MS = Cu + D = 1 t
Cung tin vn bng vi lng tin c s ban u nh nc in ra
20
2. Dn chng gi ton b s tin ny vo ngn hng thng
mi (NHTM) di dng tin gi khng k hn; NHTM gi
ton b s tin ny di dng d tr
Cu = 0
D = 1 t;
D tr R (reserve) = 1 t
MS = Cu + D = 0 + 1 t = 1 t
Cung tin vn bng lng tin c s ban u nh nc in ra

21
3. Dn chng gi ton b vo NHTM di dng tin gi khng
k hn; NHTM d tr 10% v cho vay tr li dn chng 90%.
D = 1 t;
R = 10%1 t = 100 triu;
Cho vay L = 900 triu
Tin mt dn chng gi Cu = 900 triu (do NHTM cho dn
chng vay 900 triu)
MS = Cu + D = 900 triu + 1 t = 1.9 t
Cung tin ln hn lng tin c s ban u nh nc in ra
22
Ngn hng thng mi khi thc hin nghip v nhn
tin gi khng k hn v sau cho vay mt phn
tr li dn chng th n to ra thm phng tin
trao i l sc (tin gi khng k hn) v lm tng
cung tin trong nn kinh t.
23
Qu trnh trn cn tip tc lp li
900 triu c gi tr li NHTM di dng tin
gi khng k hn; NHTM d tr 10% v cho vay
90% MS = ???
....
24
Lng tin c s MB = Cu + R
Tin nh nc in ra c th nm trong tay dn chng (Cu)
hoc nm trong d tr ca NHTM (R)
Cung tin MS = Cu + D
Phng tin trao i trong nn kinh t gm c tin mt dn
chng gi (Cu) v lng sc dn chng gi (D)
25
S nhn tin (m
m
: money multiplier) c
tnh bng cung tin (MS) chia cho lng tin
c s (MB)
S nhn tin phn nh kh nng to tin (tin gi
khng k hn D) ca cc NHTM
26
;
1
1
m
m
m
a
Cu R
cr r
a D D
MS Cu D
m
MB Cu R
Cu
D
m
Cu R
D D
cr
m
cr r
= =
+
= =
+
+
=
+
+
=
+
S nhn tin ph thuc vo thi
quen gi tin mt ca dn
chng
cr = Cu/D
S nhn tin ph thuc vo t
l d tr ca ngn hng
thng mi
R
a
= R/D
27
MS = MBm
m

Dn chng thch gi tin mt tc l cr ln th
s nhn tin nh v cung tin nh
Chng minh

1
1 1
1
1 0
1
a a a
m
a a a
a a
m
a
cr r r r cr
m
cr r cr r cr r
r r
cr m
cr r
< >
+ +
= = + = +
+ +
|
+ +
+
28
Trng hp cc oan dn chng nm gi
ton b di dng tin gi khng k hn v
khng nm gi tin mt (Cu=0), tc l cr = 0
th s nhn tin s bng:
m
m
= 1/r
a
29
MS = MBm
m

Ngn hng thng mi d tr nhiu tc l r
a

ln th s nhn tin nh v cung tin nh
Chng minh

1
m
a
a m
cr
m
cr r
r m
+
=
+
| +
30
Trng hp cc oan cc NHTM d tr
ton b v khng cho vay, tc l r
a
= 1 th s
nhn tin s bng:
m
m
= 1
Cung tin lc ny ng bng lng tin c s
ban u nh nc in ra.
31
Mc tiu ca chng
hng trung ng
gi tin ca dn chng
32
Cng c kim sot cung tin ca NHTW
MS = MBm
m

1. Nghip v th trng m (Open Market
Operation OMO )
2. Thay i t l d tr bt buc
3. Thay i li sut chit khu
33
MS = MBm
m

1. Nghip v th trng m
NHTW bn 1 t tri phiu ra cng chng
NHTW thu 1 t tin mt v lng tin c s
MB gim 1 t cung tin gim i {m
m
1 t}
34
MS = MBm
m

1. Nghip v th trng m
NHTW mua 1 t tri phiu m cng chng ang
nm gi NHTW tr 1 t tin mt ra dn chng
lng tin c s MB tng 1 t cung tin
tng thm {m
m
1 t}
35
MS = MBm
m

NHTW tng t l d tr bt buc (t l d tr ti
thiu m cc NHTM phi thc hin) t l d
tr ti cc NHTM tng ln s nhn tin m
m
gim cung tin gim.
36
MS = MBm
m

NHTW gim t l d tr bt buc t l d tr
ti cc NHTM gim xung s nhn tin m
m
tng cung tin tng.

37
MS = MBm
m

Li sut chit khu l li sut m NHTW p
dng i vi khon vay m cc NHTM vay ca
NHTW
Cc NHTM khi cn kit d tr s phi vay cc NHTM
khc hoc vay NHTW b sung d tr, p ng nhu
cu rt tin ca khch hng.

38
MS = MBm
m

NHTW tng li sut chit khu NHTM khng mun vay
NHTM c xu hng tng d tr m bo khng b
cn kit d tr s nhn tin gim cung tin gim
39
MS = MBm
m

NHTW gim li sut chit khu NHTM c xu
hng gim d tr v cho vay nhiu hn (
lm g?) s nhn tin tng cung tin tng
40
MS = MBm
m

NHTW gim li sut chit khu NHTM c xu
hng gim d tr v cho vay nhiu hn (
lm g?) s nhn tin tng cung tin tng

41
Nghip v th trng m
u im: th trng ch ng, khng gy xo
trn hot ng NHTM
Nhc im: khng pht huy tc dng nu th
trng mua bn tri phiu chnh ph khng pht
trin
42
Thay i d tr bt buc
u im: d pht huy tc dng tc th ti cung
tin
Nhc im: gy xo trn hot ng ca NHTM
43
Mc tiu ca chng
hng trung ng
gi tin ca dn chng
44
Cu tin (Money Demand MD)
Mi ngi mun nm gi tin (loi ti sn khng
sinh li hoc sinh li rt thp) v
ng c giao dch (transaction): mua bn hng ngy
ng c d phng (precautionary): p ng cc khon chi
tiu bt thng
ng c u c (speculative): mt loi ti sn ct tr gi tr
45
Cu tin
Cu tin danh ngha ph thuc trc tip vo
cc nhn t sau
1. Thu nhp thc t Y
2. Li sut danh ngha i
3. Mc gi chung P
46
Cu tin
1. Thu nhp thc t
Thu nhp tng th nhu cu chi tiu tng v ngi
ta mun nm gi nhiu tin hn
Thu nhp gim th nhu cu chi tiu gim v
ngi ta ch cn nm gi t tin
47
Cu tin
2. Li sut danh ngha
Li sut danh ngha tng th chi ph c hi ca vic gi
tin tng mi ngi nm gi t tin (ti sn khng sinh
li) v nm gi nhiu loi ti sn sinh li hn.
Li sut danh ngha gim mi ngi nm gi nhiu tin
hn.
48
Cu tin
3. Mc gi chung P
Gi c tng th mi ngi cn gi nhiu tin hn
chi tiu lng tin cn nm gi nhiu hn
Gi c gim th mi ngi cn gi t tin hn
49
Cu tin
MD = P{kY hi}; k, h > 0
MD/P = kY hi
Cu tin thc t (MD/P) ph thuc thun
chiu vo thu nhp v ph thuc nghch
chiu vo li sut danh ngha
50
Mc tiu ca chng
kha
ti kha
51
Trng thi cn bng ca th trng tin t
L thuyt a thch thanh khon (Liquidity
Preferences Theory) ca Keynes trnh by
qu trnh iu chnh ca li sut xc lp
trng thi cn bng ca th trng tin t
52
Cung tin danh ngha MS hon ton do
NHTW quyt nh v bng MS
o

Mc gi chung ca nn kinh t l P
Cung tin thc t s l {Ms
o
/P}

53
Thu nhp thc t l Y
o

Li sut danh ngha l r
Cu tin thc t l MD
54
Nu li sut danh ngha l r
o

th cu tin thc t s l
MD
o
bng vi cung tin thc
t {MS
o
/P}
Th trng tin t cn bng
0
MS
P
r
o

MD(Y
o
)
Lng tin thc t
L
i

s
u
t

d
a
n
h

n
g
h
a

MD
o

55
1
th cu
tin thc t s l MD
1
nh hn
cung tin thc t {MS
o
/P}
d cung tin mi ngi s
chuyn tin sang cc loi ti sn
sinh li li sut gim dn xung
r
o
lng cu tin tng ln MD
o

th trng tin t cn bng

r
1

r
o

MD(Y
o
)
Lng tin thc t
L
i

s
u
t

d
a
n
h

n
g
h
a

0
MS
P
MD
1

MD
o

56
2
th cu
tin thc t s l MD
2
ln hn cung
tin thc t {MS
o
/P}
d cu tin mi ngi s chuyn
cc loi ti sn sinh li sang tin
li sut tng dn ln r
o
lng
cu tin gim xung MD
o
th
trng tin t cn bng

r
2

r
o

MD(Y
o
)
Lng tin thc t
L
i

s
u
t

d
a
n
h

n
g
h
a

0
MS
P
MD
2

MD
o

57
Li sut danh ngha cn bng l r
o
hm
rng ti lng cu tin thc t bng vi
lng cung tin thc t; th trng tin t
cn bng
58
Mc tiu ca chng
kha
ti kha
59
Chnh sch tin t
Chnh sch tin t l chnh sch thay i
cung tin thay i li sut thay i chi
tiu u t thay i GDP thc t.
60
Chnh sch tin t
1. NHTW gim cung tin
xung MS
1

Bn tri phiu
Tng t l d tr bt buc
Tng li sut chit khu
Lm tng li sut cn bng
th trng tin t ln r
1

0
MS
P
r
o

MD(Y
o
)
Lng tin thc t
L
i

s
u
t

d
a
n
h

n
g
h
a

1
MS
P
r
1

61
Chnh sch tin t
Li sut tng lm u t d
kin gim xung I(r
1
)
u t d kin gim lm
sn lng cn bng gim
Theo m hnh giao im
Keynes, sn lng cn
bng gim xung Y
1

r
o

I(r)
u t d kin
L
i

s
u
t

t
h
c

t

I(r
o
)
r
1

I(r
1
)
b
GDP thc t
T
n
g

c
h
i

t
i
u

d

k
i
n

AE
1

AE
o

0
br
Y
1
Y
o

a
|
o
ng 45
o
AE
1

AE
0

|
1
1
b r
MPC MPM
A
+
63
Chnh sch tin t
Theo m hnh AS-AD
ng AD s dch sang tri mt on bng Y = Y
o
Y
1

Sn lng cn bng ngn hn s gim xung Y
2
do nh
hng ca vic gim gi xung P
1

Sn lng cn bng di hn s tr li Y
o
do gi tip tc
gim xung P
2

P
o

Y
1
Y
o

AD
1
Sn lng thc t
M
c

g
i

c
h
u
n
g

AD
o
1
1
b r
MPC MPM
A
+
Y
2

b
a
c
SAS
P
1

P
2

LAS
d
65
Chnh sch tin t
2. NHTW tng cung tin ln
MS
1

Mua tri phiu
Gim t l d tr bt buc
Gim li sut chit khu
Lm gim li sut cn bng
th trng tin t xung r
1
0
MS
P
r
o

MD(Y
o
)
Lng tin thc t
L
i

s
u
t

d
a
n
h

n
g
h
a

1
MS
P
r
1

66
Chnh sch tin t
Li sut gim lm u t d
kin tng lnI(r
1
)
u t d kin tng lm sn
lng cn bng tng
Theo m hnh giao im
Keynes, sn lng cn
bng tng ti Y
1
r
1

I(r)
u t d kin
L
i

s
u
t

t
h
c

t

I(r
1
)
r
o

I(r
o
)
a
GDP thc t
T
n
g

c
h
i

t
i
u

d

k
i
n

AE
o

AE
1

0
br
Y
o
Y
1

b
|
o
ng 45
o
AE
o

AE
1

|
1
1
b r
MPC MPM
A
+
68
Chnh sch tin t
Theo m hnh AS-AD
ng AD s dch sang phi mt on bng Y = Y
o
Y
1

Sn lng cn bng ngn hn s tng ln Y
2
do nh hng
ca vic tng gi ln P
1

Sn lng cn bng di hn s tr li Y
o
do gi tip tc
tng ti P
2
P
o

Y
o
Y
1

AD
o
Sn lng thc t
M
c

g
i

c
h
u
n
g

AD
1
1
1
b r
MPC MPM
A
+
Y
2

a
b
c
SAS
P
1

P
2

LAS
d
70
Chnh sch tin t
Chnh sch tin t m rng
Tng cung tin v lm tng GDP thc t
Chnh sch tin t tht cht
Gim cung tin v lm gim GDP thc t
71
Mc tiu ca chng
kha
ti kha
72
Kt hp chnh sch tin t - ti kha
1. Chnh sch ti kha
Hiu ng s nhn
G,T thay i lm C thay i cng chiu v lm Y thay i
nhiu hn theo cng thc s nhn chi tiu v s nhn thu
Hiu ng ln t
G,T thay i lm u t I thay i tri chiu v lm Y thay
i t i.
73
Hiu ng ln t
i. Tng G hoc gim T lm tng GDP thc t trong ngn
hn ti Y
1

ii. GDP thc t (thu nhp Y) tng lm tng cu tin thc t
MD
iii. Cu tin thc t tng lm tng li sut cn bng trn th
trng tin t
0
MS
P
r
o

MD(Y
o
)
Lng tin thc t
L
i

s
u
t

d
a
n
h

n
g
h
a

MD(Y
1
)
r
1

75
iv. Li sut cn bng tng lm gim u t I
v. u t I gim lm GDP thc t gim xung Y
2

GDP thc t cui cng tng t hn mc tng khi
ch c hiu ng s nhn do nh hng tri
chiu ca hiu ng ln t.
a
GDP thc t
AE
o

AE
1

Y
o
Y
1

b
|
0
ng 45
o
AE
0

AE
1

G hoc
TMPC
AE
2

c
Y
2

AE
2

I = br
Hiu ng
s nhn
Hiu ng
ln t
1
2
Tng chi tiu
d kin
77
Hiu ng ln t
i. Gim G hoc tng T lm gim GDP thc t trong ngn
hn xung Y
1

ii. GDP thc t (thu nhp Y) gim lm gim cu tin thc t
MD
iii. Cu tin thc t gim lm gim li sut cn bng trn th
trng tin t
0
MS
P
r
1

MD(Y
1
)
Lng tin thc t
L
i

s
u
t

d
a
n
h

n
g
h
a

MD(Y
o
)
r
o

79
iv. Li sut cn bng gim lm tng u t I
v. u t I tng lm GDP thc t tng ti Y
2

GDP thc t cui cng gim t hn mc gim khi
ch c hiu ng s nhn do nh hng tri
chiu ca hiu ng ln t.

b
GDP thc t
Tng chi tiu
d kin
AE
1

AE
o

0
Y
1
Y
o

a
|
ng 45
o
AE
1

AE
o

AE
2

c
Y
2

AE
2

I = br
Hiu ng
s nhn
Hiu ng
ln t
1
2
G hoc
TMPC
81
Thay i chi tiu chnh ph hoc thu s lm u t
t nhn thay i do hiu ng ln t
Chnh ph c th s dng kt hp c chnh sch
tin t v ti kha c th thay i sn lng m
khng nh hng ti u t t nhn.
82
1. Trng hp 1
i. Tng G hoc gim T (chnh sch ti kha m rng) lm
tng GDP thc t trong ngn hn ti Y
1

ii. GDP thc t (thu nhp Y) tng lm tng cu tin thc t
MD
iii. Cu tin thc t tng lm tng li sut cn bng trn th
trng tin t
83
iv. NHTW tng cung tin (chnh
sch tin t m rng)
gim li sut tr li r
o
v. u t t nhn khng thay
i
vi. Hiu ng ln t bng 0; ch
cn tn ti hiu ng s nhn.
0
MS
P
r
o

MD(Y
o
)
Lng tin thc t
L
i

s
u
t

d
a
n
h

n
g
h
a

MD(Y
1
)
r
1

1
MS
P
a
b
c
84
2. Trng hp 2
i. Gim G hoc tng T (chnh sch ti kha tht cht) lm
gim GDP thc t trong ngn hn xung Y
1

ii. GDP thc t (thu nhp Y) gim lm gim cu tin thc t
MD
iii. Cu tin thc t gim lm gim li sut cn bng trn th
trng tin t
85
iv. NHTW gim cung tin (chnh
sch tin t tht cht)
tng li sut tr li r
o
v. u t t nhn khng thay
i
vi. Hiu ng ln t bng 0; ch
cn tn ti hiu ng s nhn.

1
MS
P
r
o

MD(Y
1
)
Lng tin thc t
L
i

s
u
t

d
a
n
h

n
g
h
a

MD(Y
o
)
r
1

0
MS
P
a
b
c
86
Kt hp chnh sch ti kha m rng v
chnh sch tin t m rng hp l
Lm tng sn lng
Khng nh hng ti li sut v u t t nhn
Sn lng tng ng bng hiu ng s nhn
87
Kt hp chnh sch ti kha tht cht v
chnh sch tin t tht cht hp l
Lm gim sn lng
Khng nh hng ti li sut v u t t nhn
Sn lng gim ng bng hiu ng s nhn

88
Mc tiu ca chng
kha
ti kha
89
Hn ch ca hai chnh sch
1. Chnh sch ti kha
Sn lng thay i khng ng k
Do hiu ng s nhn nh
- MPC nh v C t thay i (?)
Do hiu ng ln t ln
- u t nhy cm vi li sut (?)
- Cu tin t nhy cm vi li sut (?)
- Cu tin nhy cm vi thu nhp (?)
90
1. Chnh sch ti kha
tr ca chnh sch
1/1/2006: nn kinh t suy thoi, GDP thc t thp
Chnh ph mun tng G hoc gim T thng qua Quc hi
1/6/2006: thng qua v thc hin chnh sch, GDP thc t lc ny
tng tr li v gn phc hi v bng GDP tim nng
1/9/2006: chnh sch ti kha vn pht huy tc dng v lm GDP
thc t tng qu GDP tim nng.
91
2. Chnh sch tin t
Sn lng thay i khng ng k
Do cu tin t nhy cm vi li sut (?)
Do u t t nhy cm vi li sut (?)

92
2. Chnh sch tin t
tr ca chnh sch
1/1/2006: nn kinh t suy thoi, GDP thc t thp
15/1/2006: NHTW tng cung tin v lm li sut gim (nhng u t khng
gim ngay?)
1/6/2006: nn kinh t phc hi v GDP thc t xp x bng GDP tim nng
1/6/2006: li sut gim bt u lm tng u t
1/9/2006: chnh sch tin t vn pht huy tc dng v lm GDP thc t tng
qu GDP tim nng.

93
Mun khc phc c nh hng tr th chnh ph
cn phi d bo sm chu k kinh t (suy thoi hay
tng trng qu nng)
Kh nng d bo ca cc nh kinh t cn ht sc
hn ch v thng sai lm
Hiu qu ca 2 chnh sch khng cao
94

Quan im ca bn???

Chap9 Monetary Policy

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Chap9 Monetary Policy

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