Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Brief Cambodia: Sam Rainsy Mimics Thai Opposition Carlyle A. Thayer December 15, 2013

[client name deleted] Sam Rainsy announced on Friday that his party will now hold non-stop protests around the country, starting in Phnom Penh tomorrow, to call for a new election in 2014. He appears to have been recently galvanized by what occurred in Thailand and has been comparing Hun Sen and Yingluck in recent speeches. We request your assessment of these issues: Q1. What is your assessment why the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) have changed their strategy at this point, nearly five months after the election, to nonstop protests? Do you think that Rainsy is hoping that Cambodians will be inspired by the events in Thailand and take to the streets with more fervour? ANSWER: Sam Rainsy has changed tack because his political challenge to the Hun Sen regime has lost momentum. His band of loyal supporters are likely to join in initially but I doubt that large sections of Cambodian society will join in. While Thai and Cambodian societies are polarized, the factors causing polarization are different. The opposition and government in Thailand have differences dating to 2001 that include violence against street protesters. In Cambodia, the opposition has been willing to work as coalition partners with the Cambodian Peoples Party (CPP). Electoral fraud is the main grievance advanced by Cambodias opposition. The Thaksin government challenged the long established political status quo in Thailand. Hun Sen represents the long-standing status quo in Cambodia. Q2. Will non-stop demonstrations place any added leverage on the CPP to negotiate and make concessions? ANSWER: The CPP is obviously under pressure to adopt some electoral and judicial reform. Some of the pressure is internal to the CPP due to its poor electoral showing. Some of the pressure comes from mass demonstrations inside Cambodia. And some pressure comes from the international community, and most tellingly, from the Chinese media. The Hun Sen regime will make minimal concessions in response to all these pressures. Q3. Will that depend on how much they push the boundaries? ANSWER: Once Hun Sen embarks on a limited program of political reform this will ease pressures from within the CPP and from the international community, including

2 China. The opposition faces the conundrum of whether to support these reforms or to continue to stand outside the process and dismiss all reforms as meaningless. This could alienate their support from the international community. The opposition is likely to be unrelenting and uncompromising in pressing for reforms because limited reforms will only entrench the Hun Sen regime in power. Q4. Do you think Rainsy might be secretly hoping for a heavy-handed police response to get his party some much needed international press attention? ANSWER: Yes, Sam Rainsy is hoping for an over-reaction by security authorities to generate martyrs for his movement. Any over-reaction would galvanize domestic support for Sam Rainsy and swell his ranks. And any bloodletting by the Hun Sen regime will bring condemnation from the international community (Europe, Japan, Australia and the United States).

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: Sam Rainsy Mimics Thai Opposition, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, December 15, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.