Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FINANCE
Behavioral Finance
People are rational in “standard
finance.”
People are normal in Behavioral
finance.
Normal people:
commit cognitive errors
Affected by frames
Know the pain of regret
Are both risk averse and risk seeking
Cause bubbles in Markets
Behavioral finance research focuses on
how investors make decisions to buy and
sell securities, and
how they choose between alternatives.
Market Efficiency
Two meanings
• Price equals (fundamental) value.
• You cannot beat the market (so buy and
hold).
“The bubble of the late 1990s proves that
the market is not efficient.”
In the sense that price equals value
But, can you predict when the bubble will
burst? It is very difficult.
Errors in Information Processing
Overconfidence
• Investors view themselves as more able to
value securities than they actually are.
• Investors tend to over-weight their
forecasts relative to those of others.
Overconfidence in Info. Processing
• People tend to believe things that are
easier to understand more readily than
things that are more complicated.
Representativeness Heuristic
• The representativeness heuristic takes
one characteristic of a company and
extends it to other aspects of the firm.
• In particular, many investors believe a
well-run company represents a good
investment.
• Mental Short-cuts used to solve complex
problems.
Behavioral Biases:
Loss Aversion