David L.

Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink

University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
Technical Supplement 2
Waiting Line Models
LEARNING OBJETI!ES
After studying this technical supple'ent, you should !e a!le to(
). *+plain the i'portance of waiting line 'odels to service operations
'anage'ent
,. #ive a real e+a'ple of a decision 'odeled with waiting line 'ethods
-. De'onstrate the 'easures i'portant in waiting line situations
.. Show how waiting line 'odels can !e solved
WAITING LINE S"STEMS IN SER!IE O#ERATIONS
/aiting lines occur throughout our lives, at traffic lights, at !anks 0or A1M
'achines2, at restaurants, at theaters. /aiting lines are concerned with the
pro!a!ilistic pheno'ena of so'eti'es having to wait for e+tensive ti'es, at
other ti'es !eing lucky enough to not have to wait at all.
1he e+pected perfor'ance of waiting line syste's is very i'portant in 'any
operations 'anage'ent conte+ts, especially in service operations 'anage'ent.
So'e of the operations 'anage'ent conte+ts involving waiting lines are given
!elow(
A$$i%als &ueue Se$%ice 'acilit(
Asse'!ly line Co'ponents Asse'!ly line /orkers or 'achines
3ar!er shop Custo'ers Assigned nu'!ers 3ar!ers
Car wash Auto'o!iles Dirty cars in line Car washer
Co'puter center 4o!s to run Stacked 5o!s Central 6rocessing Unit
Machine repair shop 3reakdowns /ork re7uests Mechanics
Shipping dock Ships *'pty or loaded ships Cranes
1elephone syste' Calls Lines Switch!oard
/e all dislike waiting, as we would rather get on with our !usiness. 1his is
even 'ore crucial in !usiness operations, where idle ti'e for e+pensive
e7uip'ent 'ay !e unaccepta!le. 3ut there is a cost of providing service
capacity capa!le of keeping up with re7uired work. /e 'ight like for there to
!e a !ar!er waiting at our !eck and call whenever we find it convenient to enter
a !ar!er shop. $owever, !ar!er shops would have to pay for 'ore !ar!ers in
)
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
order to 'ake this possi!le, which raises their e+penses, and would in turn lead
to higher prices for haircuts.
&n operations, there is always a tradeoff !etween production capacity and
the !acklog of work to do. &f the nature is such that it can not !e inventoried
0done in advance of need2, and if there is any variance in a syste's arrival
pattern, or its service ti'e, a line of work will pile up on so'e occasions, while
at other ti'es the syste' 'ay !e idle. /aiting line theory is concerned with the
7uantitative analysis of these syste's.
WAITING LINE S"STEMS
A waiting line syste' consists of the following co'ponents( arrivals, 7ueues
0waiting lines2, 7ueue discipline, service facility, and departures.
A$$i%als) An arrival occurs when an entity 0a custo'er, a 5o!, or other things2
arrives in need of so'e service. Arrivals can occur in a nu'!er of
different ways. 1he ti'e !etween arrivals is constant in an asse'!ly line,
where durations of all tasks are controlled. More often, there is so'e
variance in the ti'e !etween arrivals. &n a 'anufacturing plant, this
variance 'ay !e 7uite low for at least so'e operations. On the other
hand, custo'er arrival at a facility such as a fast food restaurant is
typically highly varia!le. Arrivals 'ay follow a wide nu'!er of
pro!a!ility distri!utions. A co''only encountered distri!ution is the
e+ponential distri!ution, with higher pro!a!ilities associated with s'aller
ti'es !etween arrivals.
1he ti'e !etween arrivals 'ay !e a function of the calling population, the set
of all possi!le arrival entities. &f the calling population is very s'all, such as a
set of cruise liners in need of occasional 'echanical overhaul, ti'e !etween
arrivals would !e affected !y the si8e of the calling population. &f there were
only five ships in the cruise fleet, the fact that one was in dock undergoing
repair would lower the pro!a!ility of another 'echanical failure, !ecause now
there would only !e four ships that 'ight suffer a pro!le' rather than five.
1herefore, the rate of arrival is affected !y the calling population si8e. 1here
are, in fact, a finite nu'!er of potential haircut custo'ers for a !ar!er shop.
$owever, the nu'!er of these potential custo'ers is large enough that assu'ing
an infinite calling population is undetecta!ly different fro' the actual finite
nu'!er, whatever that 'ay !e.
Waiting Lines) /aiting lines occur when work arrives for service, !ut all
service facilities are occupied. /aiting lines are !ad in a co'petitive service
environ'ent, such as fast food. As we noted earlier, if there is a line at a
restaurant, no 'atter how good the restaurant, 'ost people would think of
alternative eating arrange'ents. On the other hand, if a factory has invested in
e+pensive production 'achinery, it wants to 'ake sure that this 'achinery has
all the work it can handle. An inventory of raw 'aterials to work on is a
waiting line of a type, paid for !y the factory to ensure that the e+pensive
production 'achinery is efficiently utili8ed.
,
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
&ueue *iscipline) /hen a !usy service facility co'pletes a 5o!, and a waiting
line e+ists, so'e decision rule is needed to select the ne+t 5o! to !e serviced.
1he 'ost co''on decision rule is first"co'e, first"served 0or first"in, first"out "
'I'O2. 1his decision rule would !e conventional when hu'ans were waiting
for service at a restaurant. On the other hand, 'edical e'ergency roo's would
use a different decision rule, treating life"threatening cases !efore those cases
that were not life"threatening. 6roduction facilities 'ight also apply other kinds
of priority syste's, such as repairing the e7uip'ent 'ost critical to revenue
generation.
Se$%ice 'acilit() 1he ne+t co'ponent of a waiting line syste' is the service
facility. Service facilities 'ay consist of a nu'!er of servers operating in
parallel, such as a row of !ank tellers, each availa!le to serve a line of waiting
custo'ers. Service facilities 'ay !e se7uential, as is often found in production
lines and e7uip'ent repair facilities. Service facilities are typically defined in
ter's of the nu'!er of servers, as well as the distri!ution of service ti'es.
Service ti'es can follow 'any different distri!utions. 1he nor'al distri!ution
is co''only encountered when there is a relatively low variance, such as the
ti'e it takes to cut a head of hair. So'e services are e+ponentially distri!uted,
in facilities where 'ost work takes very little ti'e, !ut co'plications 'ay cause
very long service ti'es on occasion. *rlang service ti'e distri!ution occurs
when there is a series of e+ponential activities to !e perfor'ed serially 0with the
restriction that these durations are identically distri!uted2. So'e service ti'es
are lognor'ally distri!uted, when there is a low average service ti'e that is
distinctly greater than 8ero, !ut the possi!ility of very long service ti'es.
*epa$tu$es) Once service is co'pleted, 5o!s depart the waiting line syste'.
WAITING LINE *EISIONS
Many 7ueuing 'odels have !een developed to descri!e the operating
characteristics of different waiting line syste's. 1hese operating characteristics
descri!e stead( state syste' !ehavior, which e+ists when the syste' is in so'e
sort of !alance, un!iased !y starting conditions. T$ansient state !ehavior, on
the other hand, is what happens when the starting conditions are different than
steady state !ehavior. Most waiting line syste's involve e'pty starting
conditions at the !eginning of a working day, for instance. 1herefore, early
arriving work does not have to wait as long as work that arrives after enough
ti'e has passed for a waiting line to develop.
So'eti'es transient state !ehavior is 7uite different than steady state
conditions. 9or instance, there is little waiting for a parking spot at a university
prior to : a.'. On the other hand, so'e waiting line syste's involve arrivals
prior to opening of !usiness, such as auto'o!iles arriving at a garage for
service. &n that case, the initial state condition 'ay actually involve 'ore
waiting than arrivals would e+perience later in the day.
/aiting line analysis needs to answer service"related 7uestions. &t often is
useful to use waiting line 'odels to esti'ate the average perfor'ance of the
-
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
syste' in order to identify opti'al service levels. 1he overall o!5ective of
econo'ic analysis is to 'ini'i8e total syste' cost, consisting of the cost of
waiting 0and !alking2 plus the cost of providing service.
Se$%ice osts) Service costs include the cost of e7uip'ent, personnel, facilities,
and other related e+penses incurred in providing service. As the level of service
increases, service costs will generally increase. 1wo workers can deal with
'ore 5o!s than one worker, either !y getting 5o!s done faster, or !y working on
two 5o!s independently. As the level of service capacity is increased, however,
'ore idle ti'e will !e e+perienced. &f a 'edical clinic has two e'ergency
physicians instead of one, 'ore e'ergency cases can !e dealt with. 3ut the cost
of providing service will !e increased su!stantially, and a valua!le resource 'ay
!e tied up with nothing to do for 'uch of the ti'e.
Waiting osts) As the level of service capacity is increased, waiting ti'e for
entities will decline, thus reducing waiting costs. /aiting costs are often 7uite
difficult to esti'ate. &n the fast food !usiness, the restaurant is likely to lose
revenues if they have long lines 0even if these lines 'ove 7uite 7uickly2,
!ecause 'ost of us have an aversion to waiting in line, and if we see the line
!efore we co''it to 5oin it, 'ay well choose to look for another service
esta!lish'ent. &t is difficult to esti'ate the econo'ic i'pact of lost 5o!s,
!ecause not only is the revenue of the !alking custo'er lost, !ut these lost
custo'ers will likely co'plain a!out the restaurant to their ac7uaintances,
'agnifying the i'pact. &n a factory, if 'aterial is doing the waiting, there is
very little i'pact. 1here is e+tra inventory e+pense incurred fro' owning this
e+tra !uffer of 'aterial to keep 'achinery working, !ut this 'ay !e 'ini'al
co'pared to the i'pact of idle 'achinery. 1his, in fact, is the reason that 'ost
of us 0the inventory of work2 wait 7uite often in doctors; offices.
Total S(stem ost) A 7uantitative 'odel reflecting total syste' cost includes
ter's for the cost of waiting and the cost of providing service. /e wish to
'ini'i8e total syste' cost(
Mini'i8e 1C0syste'2 < /
syste'
C
waiting
= C
service

1he decision varia!le is the service level. *ach service level needs to !e
evaluated separately, esti'ating the total syste' waiting ti'e 0/
syste'
2
associated with that service level, as well as the two cost co'ponents.
1o de'onstrate this concept, consider a car wash facility currently consisting of
one line through which all arriving vehicles 'ust pass. 1hey enter the syste'
when they arrive, and are washed in 9&9O order. Arrivals are highly varia!le
0we will go into appropriate distri!utions descri!ing various arrival patterns
later2. Service is relatively constant, as a hook is attached to each vehicle !eing
washed, and the car is pulled through the syste' at a constant rate. Manual
drying is applied at the end of the wash cycle, !ut the people doing the drying
are e+perienced, and take roughly the sa'e a'ount of ti'e for each vehicle.
1he cost of providing this syste' has !een identified !y accountants as >?@@ per
day. Average waiting ti'e per vehicle has !een calculated 0through sa'pling
.
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
conducted !y the 'anager2 at , 'inutes, with a 'ini'u' of 8ero 'inutes and a
'a+i'u' o!served -@ 'inutes. Most waiting is relatively short. 1he cost of
waiting is in ill will, and !alking on the part of custo'ers who drive !y and see
the line. 1he 'anager has !een very sensitive to !alking, !ut she can only guess
at the nu'!er of lost sales. &t is her considered 5udg'ent that when the line
e+ceeds four vehicles, cars seeking a wash will pass. 6ro!a!ly half of these
custo'ers co'e !ack later. Since each car wash involves >)@ in revenue at this
esta!lish'ent, so'e very rough esti'ating would !e re7uired to conduct the
econo'ic analysis. 1he 'anager esti'ates that only one car leaves !ecause the
line is too long for twenty that stay for service. 3ased upon records, on average,
fifteen cars are washed per hour in an eight hour working day 0>),,@@ revenue
on average per day, for ),@ cars washed2. 1his i'plies ),@%,@ < A cars !alking
per day, of which half are lost !usiness, or >-@ in lost revenue per day.
1he partners of the car wash are considering adding an additional service line.
1his would cost an e+tra >A@@ per day in a'orti8ed e+pense for e7uip'ent plus
personnel to do the work. 1he new syste' is e+pected to eli'inate current
waiting. &n fact, additional !usiness is e+pected, not only fro' those who have
!een !alking, !ut also fro' those who talk to satisfied custo'ers. Manage'ent
esti'ates an e+tra !usiness a'ounting to five cars per day 0>B@ e+tra revenue
per day2.
/ould this invest'ent pay for itselfC /e can easily see that for current
!usiness levels it will not.
Syste' ) total cost(
cost of waiting < >-@%day, cost of service < >?@@%day, total cost >?-@%day
Syste' , total cost(
cost of waiting < @, cost of service < 0>?@@ = >A@@2%day, total cost >),B@@%day
&t is true that Syste' , will involve e+tra revenue 0of unstated a'ount2.
$owever, there is >BD@%day of this e+tra revenue re7uired in order to 'ake the
invest'ent in the second line profita!le.
/e will look at waiting line 'odels to identify 'ore precise 'easures of
e+pected syste' perfor'ance. 1his will ena!le 'ore precise econo'ic analysis.
$owever, the sa'e !asic cost analysis approach is re7uired, to co'pare total
syste' cost i'pact fro' all syste's !eing considered.
&f variance in arrivals and%or service is present, there is never a guarantee of
eli'ination of all waiting. $owever, in general, the 'ore service capacity
provided, the less waiting. *ach specific situation can !e 'odeled to deter'ine
its specific e+pected syste' perfor'ance. So'e waiting line situations are
easier to 'odel than others. So'e standard 'odels will !e presented here. 9or
'ore co'ple+ situations, si'ulation analysis is typically re7uired.
B
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
WAITING LINE S"STEM MEAS+RES
1he syste' characteristics 'ost co''only o!tained in waiting line analysis are(
6ro!a!ilities of any specified nu'!er of 5o!s or custo'ers in the syste' P
n

Mean 0e+pected2 waiting ti'e per 5o! or custo'er W
q

Mean 0e+pected2 length of the waiting line L
q

Mean ti'e in the syste' 0waiting ti'e plus service ti'e2 per 5o! or custo'er W
Mean nu'!er of 5o!s or custo'ers in the syste' L
6ro!a!ility that the service facility will !e idle. P
0

Service facility utili8ation rate
ote that < ) " P
0
for a single"server waiting line syste'.
WAITING LINE ASS+M#TIONS
1o deter'ine these syste' characteristics, we 'ust 'ake certain assu'ptions.
A waiting line syste' can !e classified !y si+ key conditions, or para'eters
0following the notational sche'e of D. #. Eendall, )?B-
)
2. 1here are si+
ele'ents to this notational sche'e(
). Arrival distri!ution
,. Service ti'e distri!ution
-. u'!er of servers
.. Fueue discipline
B. Ma+i'u' waiting line length
A. u'!er of potential custo'ers in the calling population
A$$i%al *ist$i,ution) 1he pattern of arrivals concerns the distri!ution of the
ti'e !etween arrivals. A co''only encountered distri!ution is Markovian, or
e+ponential distri!ution. Arrivals also can !e constant, as in asse'!ly lines or
!ar!er shops with appoint'ent syste's. 1he *rlang distri!ution, as noted
earlier, occurs when identical e+ponentially distri!uted arrivals occur in k
se7uences. 1he general independent distri!ution usually involves nor'ally
distri!uted data. 1he four 'ost co''only used distri!utions for ti'e !etween
arrivals are given !elow(
)
Eendall, D.#. Stochastic processes occurring in the theory of 7ueues and their
analysis !y 'eans of the i'!edded Markov chain, The Annals of Mathematical
Statistics 2-, )?B-, --:"-B..
A
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
M *+ponential 0or 6oisson2
D Deter'inistic 0constant2
*
k
*rlang
#& #eneral independent
1he key para'eter for arrivals is the 'ean ti'e !etween arrivals < )%. 1he
para'eter is the nu'!er of arrivals per unit ti'e.
Se$%ice Time *ist$i,ution) 1i'e of services also can !e descri!ed !y a
nu'!er of different pro!a!ility distri!utions. #eneral distri!utions typically are
associated with nor'ally distri!uted ti'e of service. 1hose distri!utions
typically descri!ed in Eendall;s notation are(
M *+ponential
D Deter'inistic 0constant2
*
k
*rlang
#S #eneral service
1he key para'eter for services is , the 'ean service rate in nu'!er of services
per unit ti'e. 1he 'ean service ti'e is )%.
u'!er of Servers( 1he nu'!er of parallel servers is an i'portant factor in
waiting line syste's. All servers are assu'ed to have the sa'e capacity. &t is
i'portant to note that in a waiting line syste', the total syste' service capacity
'ust e+ceed the arrival rate, or the length of the waiting line would grow to
infinity. &n fact, syste's with arrival rates approaching service capacity will
e+plode to an infinite waiting line, as it would take enor'ous luck for the
syste' to encounter su!se7uent idle ti'e to catch up with de'and.
Eendall;s notation for nu'!er of parallel servers is the appropriate integer value
s.
&ueue *iscipline) Fueue discipline reflects the decision rule deter'ining the
order in which waiting 5o!s or custo'ers are selected for service. 1he nor'al
assu'ption is first"co'e, first"served. 1he co''only assu'ed rules are(
9C9S 9irst"co'e, first"served
L&9O Last"in, first"out
S&GO Gando' service order
#D #eneral distri!ution 0other decision rules2
Ma.imum Waiting Line Length) 1he 'a+i'u' nu'!er of 5o!s or custo'ers
awaiting service can affect the perfor'ance of the waiting line 'odel. Many
'odels 'ay !e appropriately descri!ed !y an unli'ited 7ueue length. 3ut there
'ay !e li'its to the length of the waiting line, such as the si8e of the parking lot
at a restaurant. Custo'er !ehavior 'ay also play a role, through !alking when
long lines are present. 1here are, however, precise ways to 'odel this !ehavior
rather than capping the 'a+i'u' waiting line length.
D
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
Eendall;s notation for 'a+i'u' 7ueue length is the appropriate integer, or .
alling #opulation) 1he calling population of a waiting line syste' is the si8e
of the set of potential 5o!s or custo'ers. As with the waiting line length, even if
this nu'!er is strictly less than infinity, assu'ing a value of infinity will not
'atter unless the calling population is 7uite s'all.
Eendall;s notation for calling population is the appropriate integer, or .
STAN*AR* WAITING LINE MO*ELS
/e will de'onstrate si+ waiting line syste's for which 'athe'atical
for'ulations have !een developed and widely pu!lished. 1here are 'any other
sets of assu'ptions for which 'odels have !een generated as well. $owever,
these si+ cover 'any typical cases. A service situation will !e used to
de'onstrate each 'odel, allowing you to co'pare the i'pact of different
assu'ptions.
/e will !egin with a service facility designed for efficiency and service. 1he
rate of custo'er arrival 02 is assu'ed to !e )@ cars per hour. A service rate 02
of ), per hour 0five 'inutes per custo'er2 would provide 'ore than enough
capacity, if there were no variance. /e will assu'e that the owner has hired
one server and their initial training has ena!led the' to perfor' service in B
'inutes on average 0e+ponentially distri!uted service ti'e2.
See e+t 6ages for /aiting Line Syste's
:
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
/M0M012)''S00 Model
1his 'odel assu'es e+ponentially distri!uted arrival rates and e+ponentially
distri!uted service ti'es, with one server. 1he conventional assu'ption of first"
co'e, first"served priority is 'ade, along with an infinite 'a+i'u' waiting line
and an infinite calling population. 1he for'ulas for the standard 7ueuing
'easures for this set of assu'ptions is(
&nputs Mean ti'e !etween arrivals )% < )%)@ hours < A 'inutes
Mean service ti'e )% <)%), hours < B 'inutes
Outputs Average utili8ation < / < )@%), < @.:---
*'pty syste' pro!a!ility 6
@
< ) " < ) H @.:--- < @.)AAD
6ro!a!ility of n units in syste' 6
n
<
n
0) " 2
6
)
< 0@.:---2
)
0)"@.:---2 < @.)-:?
6
,
< 0@.:---2
,
0)"@.:---2 < @.))BD
6
-
< 0@.:---2
-
0)"@.:---2 < @.@?AB
Mean 7ueue length L
q
< %0 " 2 < )@0@.:---2%0), H )@2
L
q
< )@ @.:---%0), " )@2 < ..)AAD custo'ers
Mean syste' length L < %0 " 2 < )@%0), " )@2 < B custo'ers
Mean waiting ti'e W
q
< %0 " 2 < @.:---%0), H )@2
< @..)AD hours, or ,B 'inutes
Mean ti'e in syste' W < )%0 " 2 < )%0), H )@2
< @.B hours, or -@ 'inutes
ote that the 'ean nu'!er of custo'ers in the syste' is e7ual to the 'ean in
service 0@.:---2 plus the 'ean waiting 0..)AAD2. Also, the 'ean ti'e in the
syste' is e7ual to the 'ean ti'e of service 0B 'inutes2 plus the 'ean waiting
ti'e 0,B 'inutes2. 1his syste' involves high levels of variance, with !oth
arrivals and services e+ponentially distri!uted. 1his leads to relatively long
waiting lines on average, as !oth arrivals and services tend to suffer
e+ceptionally long ti'es on occasion. 1he pro!a!ility of waiting would !e
) H 6
@
H 6
)
< ) H @.)AAD H @.)-:? < @.A?...
?
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
/M0*012)''S00 Model
1his 'odel assu'es e+ponentially distri!uted arrival rates and constant service
ti'es, with one server. 1he conventional assu'ption of first"co'e, first"served
priority is 'ade, along with an infinite 'a+i'u' waiting line and an infinite
calling population. 1he for'ulas for the standard 7ueuing 'easures for this set
of assu'ptions is(
&nputs Mean ti'e !etween arrivals )% < )%)@ hours < A 'inutes
Mean service ti'e )% <)%), hours < B 'inutes
Outputs Average utili8ation < / < )@%), < @.:---
*'pty syste' pro!a!ility 6
@
< ) " < ) H @.:--- < @.)AAD
6ro!a!ility of n units in syste' 6
n
<
n
0) " 2
6
)
< 0@.:---2
)
0)"@.:---2 < @.)-:?
6
,
< 0@.:---2
,
0)"@.:---2 < @.))BD
6
-
< 0@.:---2
-
0)"@.:---2 < @.@?AB
Mean 7ueue length L
q
<
,
%I,0) " 2J
L
q
< 0@.:---2
,
%I,0) " @.:---2J < ,.@:--- custo'ers
Mean syste' length L < L
q
= < ,.@:-- = @.:---
< ,.?)AD custo'ers
Mean waiting ti'e W
q
< L
q
% < ,.@:--%)@
< @.,@:- hours, or ),.B 'inutes
Mean ti'e in syste' W < W
q
= )% < @.,@:- = )%),
< @.,?)D hours, or )D.B 'inutes
Again, the 'ean nu'!er of custo'ers in the syste' is e7ual to the 'ean in
service 0@.:---2 plus the 'ean waiting 0,.@:--2. Also, the 'ean ti'e in the
syste' is e7ual to the 'ean ti'e of service 0B 'inutes2 plus the 'ean waiting
ti'e 0),.B 'inutes2. 1his syste' involves lower levels of variance, with only
arrivals e+ponentially distri!uted. 1he average waiting ti'e and average
nu'!er of custo'ers waiting have !een reduced !y one half relative to the
M%M%) 'odel. 1he pro!a!ility of waiting is identical to that of the M%M%)
'odel, !ecause the average arrival rates and service rates would !e the sa'e.
)@
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
/M0GS012)''S00 Model
1his 'odel assu'es e+ponentially distri!uted arrival rates and general service
ti'es 0descri!ed !y 'ean and standard deviation2, with one server. 1he
conventional assu'ption of first"co'e, first"served priority is 'ade, along with
an infinite 'a+i'u' waiting line and an infinite calling population. 1he
for'ulas for the standard 7ueuing 'easures for this set of assu'ptions is(
&nputs Mean ti'e !etween arrivals )% < )%)@ hours < A 'inutes
Mean service ti'e )% <)%), hours < B 'inutes
Service ti'e standard deviation < )%A@ hours < ) 'inute
Outputs Average utili8ation < / < )@%), < @.:---
*'pty syste' pro!a!ility 6
@
< ) " < ) H @.:--- < @.)AAD
6ro!a!ility of n units in syste' 6
n
<
n
0) " 2
6
)
< 0@.:---2
)
0)"@.:---2 < @.)-:?
6
,
< 0@.:---2
,
0)"@.:---2 < @.))BD
6
-
< 0@.:---2
-
0)"@.:---2 < @.@?AB
Mean 7ueue length L
q
< 0
2

2
+
,
2%I,0) " 2J
L
q
< I0)@2
,
0)%A@2
,
= 0@.:---2
,
J %I,0) H @.:---2J < ,.)AAD custo'ers
Mean syste' length L < L
q
= < ,.)AAD = @.:---
< - custo'ers
Mean waiting ti'e W
q
< L
q
% < ,.)AAD%)@
< @.,)AD hours, or )- 'inutes
Mean ti'e in syste' W < W
q
= )% < @.,)AD = )%),
< @.- hours, or ): 'inutes
Co'parison with the M%M%) and M%D%) 'odels indicates that the low variance
0standard deviation2 of this 'odel yielded perfor'ance very close to 0!ut 5ust a
!it 'ore waiting than2 the constant service ti'e 'odel. &t is true that as the
variance increases, the 'ore waiting that will occur. 1he pro!a!ility of waiting
here is identical to the M%M%) and M%D%) 'odels.
))
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
/M0M0s2)''S00 Model
1his 'odel assu'es e+ponentially distri!uted arrival rates and service ti'es,
with 'ultiple servers. 1he conventional assu'ption of first"co'e, first"served
priority is 'ade, along with an infinite 'a+i'u' waiting line and an infinite
calling population. 1he for'ulas for the standard 7ueuing 'easures for this set
of assu'ptions is(
&nputs Mean ti'e !etween arrivals )% < )%)@ hours < A 'inutes
Mean service ti'e )% <)%), hours < B 'inutes
u'!er of servers s < ,
Outputs Average utili8ation < /s < )@%0, ),2 < @..)AD
*'pty syste' pro!a!ility
1
1
1
1
1
]
1

,
_

,
_

+
1
1
1
1
1
]
1

,
_

s
s
n
P
s
s
n
n
) K
K
)
)
@
@
< )%0) = @.:--- = @.:---
,
%I,0) H @..)AAD2J
< )%0) = @.:--- = @.B?B,2 < @..)):
6ro!a!ility of n units in syste' if n s, 6
n
< 6
@
0/)
n
%nK
6
)
< 0@..)):2 0)@%),2
)
%) < @.-.-)
6
,
< 0@..)):2 0)@%),2
,
%, < @.).-@
&f n L s, 6
n
< 6
@
0/)
n
%0sKs
n"s
2
6
-
< 0@..)):2 0)@%),2
-
%0, ,
0-",2
2<
@.@B?A
Mean 7ueue length
( )
,
@
) K
6

,
_

s
L
s
q
L
q
< I@..)): 0@.:---2
,
@..)ADJ % I,0) H @..)AD2
,
J < @.)DB) custo'ers
Mean syste' length L < L
q
= / < @.)DB) = @.:---
< ).@@:. custo'ers
Mean waiting ti'e W
q
< L
q
% < @.)DB) % )@
< @.@)DB hours, or ).@B 'inutes
),
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
Mean ti'e in syste' W < W
q
= 1% < @.)DB) = )%), < @.)@@:
hours, or A.@B 'inutes
1his syste' radically reduces the waiting line, at the cost of dou!ling service
capacity 0in the configuration of two parallel servers2. /aiting has practically
disappeared, and would now only occur when there were three or 'ore
custo'ers in the syste', or ) H @..)): H @.-.-) H @.).-@, or a pro!a!ility of
@.)@,).
)-
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
/M0M012)''S030 Model
1his 'odel differs fro' the M%M%) 'odel in that a finite waiting line is
i'posed. &t assu'es e+ponentially distri!uted arrival rates and e+ponentially
distri!uted service ti'es, with one server. 1he conventional assu'ption of first"
co'e, first"served priority is 'ade, along with an infinite calling population.
1he for'ulas for the standard 7ueuing 'easures for this set of assu'ptions is(
&nputs Mean ti'e !etween arrivals )% < )%)@ hours < A 'inutes
Mean service ti'e )% <)%), hours < B 'inutes
Ma+i'u' nu'!er in the syste' E < -
Outputs Average utili8ation < / < )@%), < @.:---
*'pty syste' pro!a!ility 6
@
< 0) " )/(1
E=)
2
< 0) H @.:---2%0) H @.:---
.
2 < @.-,)?
6ro!a!ility of n units in syste' 6
n
<
n
6
@

6
)
< 0@.:---2
)
0@.-,)?2 < @.,A:-
6
,
< 0@.:---2
,
0@.-,)?2 < @.,,-B
6
-
< 0@.:---2
-
0@.-,)?2 < @.):A-
Mean syste' length

K
n
n
n
@
6
< @ @.-,)? = ) @.,A:- = , @.,,-B =
- @.):A- < ).,D., custo'ers
Mean 7ueue length L
q
<

K
n
n
,
n
6 2 ) 0
< ) @.,,-B = , @.):A- < @.B?A)
custo'ers
Mean waiting ti'e W
q
< L
q
/ 0(1 6
E
2
< @.B?A)%I)@0)"@.):A-2J
< @.@D-- hours, or ...@ 'inutes
Mean ti'e in syste' W < L % 0(1 6
E
2
< ).,D.,%I)@0) H @.):A-2J
< @.)BAA hours, or ?..@ 'inutes
3y capping the 'a+i'u' nu'!er waiting, in effect the nu'!er of arrivals is
reduced, thus radically reducing the waiting line length and ti'e. $owever,
).
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
there is 'uch less work done, as there will !e fewer custo'ers served. 1he
s'aller K is, the 'ore i'pact.
)B
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
/M0M0s2)''S030 Model
1his 'odel adds the feature of 'ultiple servers to the last 'odel.
&nputs Mean ti'e !etween arrivals )% < )%)@ hours < A 'inutes
Mean service ti'e )% <)%), hours < B 'inutes
u'!er of servers s < , s K
Ma+i'u' nu'!er in the syste' K < -
Outputs Average utili8ation < /(n) < )@%0, ),2 < @..)AD
6ro!a!ility of n units in syste' 9or n s, 6
n
< I0/2
n
%nKJ 6
@
6
)
< I0@.:---2
)
%)J 6
@
6
,
< I0@.:---2
,
%,J 6
@
9or s M n K 6
n
< I0/2
n
%0sKs
n"s
2J 6
@
6
-
< I0@.:---2
-
%0,,2J 6
@
6
@
= 6
)
= 6
,
= 6
-
< ).@
6
@
= @.:--- 6
@
= @.-.D, 6
@
= @.)..D 6
@
< )
6
@
< @..-@) 6
)
< @.-B:. 6
,
< @.).?-
6
-
< @.@A,,
Mean syste' length

K
n
n
n
@
6
L < @ = ) @.-B:. = , @.).?- = -
@.@A,, < @.:.-D custo'ers
Mean 7ueue length L
q
<

+

K
s n
s n
)
n
6 2 0
L
7
< ) @.@A,, < @.@A,, custo'ers
Mean waiting ti'e W
q
< L
q
/ I (1 6
E
2J
< @.@A,,%I)@0) H @.@A,,2J < @.@@AA hours,
or @..@ 'inutes
Mean ti'e in syste' W < L % I (1 6
E
2J
< @.:.-D%I0)@0) H @.@A,,2J < @.@?@@ hours,
or B..@ 'inutes
As with the one server 'odel, capping the 'a+i'u' nu'!er waiting reduces
the effective nu'!er of arrivals. /ith 'ultiple servers, there is radical
)A
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
reduction in the waiting line length and ti'e. 1he s'aller E is, the 'ore
i'pact.
S+MMAR"
/aiting line 'odels are i'portant conceptually in considering service
operations. 1he perfor'ance of these syste's when pro!a!ilistic arrival and%or
service distri!utions are present is usually 7uite counterintuitive. /aiting line
'odels provide a 'eans to 'ore accurately esti'ate the i'pact of changes to
various service syste's, especially when arrival patterns are deter'ined !y
custo'er !ehavior, leading to arrival patterns and service patterns following
various distri!utions.
1his chapter de'onstrated so'e of the 'ore conventional types of waiting line
syste's. 9or'ulas e+ist for specific types of waiting line situations. Geal
applications involve a great deal of co'ple+ity, often stringing a series of
waiting line syste's together. 1herefore, solution of waiting line pro!le's is
usually acco'plished through si'ulation.
3E" TERMS
A$$i%al( co'ponent in a waiting line syste' representing the appearance of
work to !e acco'plished
Bal4ing( custo'er arrival pattern in a waiting line syste' where if the line
e+ceeds a certain level, the custo'er departs the syste' prior to
receiving service
alling population( the set of all possi!le arrival entities
*ist$i,ution( statistical pattern ena!ling identification of pro!a!ilities
'I'O( first"in, first"out priority rule co''only used to select the ne+t work
&ueue discipline( the rules used to select the ne+t work for a waiting line
syste'
Se$%ice 5acilit(( the co'ponent of a waiting line syste' that perfor's work
Stead( state( waiting line syste' perfor'ance at the stage when initial
condition !iases have !een eli'inated
T$ansient state( !ehavior of a waiting line syste' during the period when the
initial condition !ias still affects syste' perfor'ance 'easures
Waiting line( the 7ueue of work that has arrived !ut which the syste' has !een
una!le to !egin service for
#ROBLEMS
). Many !usiness operations face uneven waiting lines. $ow do grocery
stores deal with fluctuating waiting linesC $ow do !anks deal with
fluctuating waiting lines at teller windowsC
,. #ive an e+a'ple of a last"in, first"out 7ueue discipline.
-. /hat is the effect of scheduling arrivals 0such as !ar!er appoint'ents2
on a waiting lineC
)D
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
.. $ow does custo'er i'patience affect waiting linesC
B. &n an operation involving waiting lines, what happens when the arrival
rate e+ceeds the service rateC
A. /hat can !e done to reesta!lish a sta!le operation if the arrival rate
e+ceeds the service rateC
D. /hy will li'ited 7ueue lines reach a steady state even when the arrival
rate e+ceeds the service rateC
:. /hy will 'odels with li'ited calling populations reach a steady state
even though the arrival rate 'ay e+ceed the service rateC
?. Sal Maglie has operated a s'all !ar!er shop in 6oughkeepsie for a nu'!er
of years. Sal has e+perienced a wide variety of !usiness conditions over
that ti'e. /ith the develop'ent of his !usiness, conditions have changed
a great deal. Sal has kept 'eticulous records of operations over the years.
1here have !een distinct changes in the distri!ution of custo'er arrivals as
well as the ti'e Sal takes to give a haircut. /hen Sal was learning to cut
hair, the rate of service varied a lot. $e averaged -@ 'inutes per haircut,
distri!uted e+ponentially. A!out one custo'er per hour arrived in a
rando' 'anner, risking his head to SalNs care.
Calculate the !asic para'eters of this syste'
0P
@
, P
)
, P
,
, L, L
q
, W, W
q
, O2.
)@. A towing co'pany operates a large fleet of trucks. 1hese trucks have
averaged one call for 'echanical service every . hours. 1rucks generate
revenue at the rate of >,@ per hour. 1he 'echanic, 1hu'!s Swenson,
costs the co'pany >), per hour in wages, fringes, and e7uip'ent.
1hu'!s was found to average ,@ 'inutes on a truck without help fro' the
truck driver 0, hours per truck with the truck driverNs help2. Assu'ing an
M%M%)(9C9S%% 'odel(
a. /hat is the pro!a!ility of @, ), or , trucks in need of repair at any one
ti'eC
!. /hat is the average nu'!er of trucks re7uiring repair at any one ti'eC
c. /hat is the average ti'e a truck is out of service after !reaking downC
d. /hat is the average a'ount of ti'e a truck waits for 1hu'!sC
e. On the average, how 'any trucks are idle while waiting for 1hu'!sC
)). As the trucks got older, the wrecking co'pany discussed in pro!le' )@
found that the rate of 'echanical failures increased. &n the second year
of operation, Ace suffered a truck !reakdown rate of one truck per hour.
1he increased severity of the 'echanical failures also re7uired additional
'echanic ti'e, and the average repair ti'e per truck was now -@
'inutes.
a. /hat is the pro!a!ility of @, ), or , trucks in need of repairC
!. /hat is the average nu'!er of trucks that are inoperativeC
):
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
c. /hat is the average ti'e a truck is inoperativeC
d. /hat is the average nu'!er of trucks waiting for the 'echanicC
e. /hat is the average idle ti'e for a truck that is waiting for a 'echanicC
f. /hat is the cost to Ace in lost revenue !y not having enough
'echanicsC
g. /ould it pay to add a 'echanicC
),. 1hel'a;s Diner features special"order ha'!urgers. Custo'ers arrive at
the rate of B per hour following the e+ponential distri!ution. Service is
nor'ally distri!uted and the appropriate 7ueuing 'odel is
0M/GS%)(9C9S%%2. Deter'ine the nu'!er of people who will !e
waiting in line, the average ti'e they have to wait, and the pro!a!ilities
of @, ), ,, and 'ore than , waiting custo'ers, given the following
different service rates 0each negative e+ponentially distri!uted2.
a. A service rate of B, standard deviation @.@--- per hour 0 < ), 'inutes,
std , 'inutes2, nor'ally distri!uted.
!. A service rate of A, standard deviation @.@--- per hour 0 < )@ 'inutes,
std , 'inutes2, nor'ally distri!uted.
c. A service rate of D.B, standard deviation @.@--- per hour 0 < : 'inutes,
std , 'inutes2, nor'ally distri!uted.
)-. A Car /ash uses a fi+ed"ti'e asse'!ly line re7uiring - 'inutes to wash a
car, including drying ti'e. &f custo'ers arrive in a rando' 'anner at the
average rate of : per hour, calculate the e+pected nu'!er of cars in the
syste' and the average ti'e each custo'er can e+pect to spend at the car
wash. 0M%D%)(9C9S%%2
).. 1he 9ifth ational 3ank of 3ryan is e+panding. 1o 5ustify a second teller,
the vice"president of finance has re7uested a series of waiting line analyses.
1he initial phase involves deter'ining current syste' properties. At
present, custo'ers arrive following the e+ponential distri!ution at the rate
of a!out )@ per hour. 1he teller spends e+actly B 'inutes with each
custo'er. Define the appropriate 'odel, stating any assu'ptions you have
'ade, and deter'ine the current operating para'eters.
)B. According to the 'arketing staff of the 93 in pro!le' )., custo'er
service ti'es could !e 'ore accurately descri!ed !y a rando' 0negative
e+ponential2 distri!ution. /hat effect does this change in assu'ptions
have on the current syste' para'etersC
)A. 1he !oard of directors of 93 0pro!le's )B and )A2 has concluded that a
second teller is needed. Using the e+ponential arrival distri!ution, and two
servers(
a. Deter'ine the pro!a!ility of an arriving custo'er finding five people
already in the 7ueue 0thus constituting si+ custo'ers in the syste'( One
!eing served, four in line, plus the new arrival2.
)?
David L. Olson Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, Swink
University of e!raska"Lincoln Mc#raw"$ill%&rwin
!. Deter'ine the sa'e pro!a!ility for a two"teller syste'.
c. Co'pare the e'pty"syste' pro!a!ilities for the one" and two"teller
situations.
d. /hat are the server utili8ation factorsC
e. /hat is the 'ean 7ueue length for each syste'C
)D. A city traffic control facility is used to collect traffic fines. 1he 'ayor of
the city is very concerned that citi8ens !e treated well !y city officials.
1hose who get traffic citations vote. 1he 'ayor has received co'plaints
that the office for paying citations has e+perienced long waiting lines, and
the 'ayor wants an analysis of the syste'. 1he syste' consists of a clerk
who processes each ticket. Looking up data and cross"referencing results
in a distri!ution of service ti'e that is e+ponentially distri!uted with a
'ean capacity of )@ per hour. 6eople co'e into the office during peak
periods 0)@ a.'. through - p.'.2 at the rate of A per hour. &f the line is
longer than B people, citi8ens tend to leave. Analy8e the e+pected
perfor'ance of the current syste'. 0M%M%)(9&9O%B%2
a. &dentify the pro!a!ility that the clerk is idle
!. &dentify the average nu'!er of citi8ens waiting
c. &dentify the average waiting ti'e per citi8en
):. Analy8e the data in pro!le' )D, only using two clerks instead of ).
a. &dentify the pro!a!ility that either clerk is idle
!. &dentify the pro!a!ility that !oth clerks are idle.
c. &dentify the average nu'!er of citi8ens waiting
d. &dentify the average waiting ti'e per citi8en
,@